1月13日，近期全球市场正处于政治不确定性与宏观政策博弈的交汇点。随着白宫与美联储之间的矛盾 公开化，传统金融市场的风险溢价显著上升。最新数据显示，比特币在周一逆势攀升1%，最高触及 92000美元。OEXN表示，尽管其仍处于89000美元至95000美元的震荡区间，但在美股期货普遍走弱的 背景下，这种独立走势引起了市场的广泛关注。 针对资产相关性的变化，OEXN认为，比特币长期以来被视为与纳斯达克指数高度同步的风险资产，但 此次两者的表现出现了明显脱钩。当纳斯达克期货下跌0.8%、标普500期货下跌0.5%时，加密货币表现 出了极强的韧性。这种现象表明，在行政权力干扰货币政策独立性的预期下，投资者开始倾向于将比特 币作为一种"数字避风港"，用以对冲潜在的财政风险与货币政策不确定性。 在宏观金融数据方面，OEXN表示，美元指数已从周五99.26的高点下滑至99.00，这与传统避险资产黄 金的强劲表现形成了鲜明对比。随着避险情绪升温，金价已飙升至每盎司4600美元的历史新高。OEXN 认为，这种股汇双承压、金币双走强的格局，反映出市场对现行金融秩序稳健性的疑虑正在加深。 在宏观金融数据方面，OEXN表示，美元指 ...

2026年1月贵金属市场迎来强劲爆发，黄金白银价格双双突破历史峰值，避险交易成为主导行情的核心 逻辑。这波涨势的直接导火索源于美联储内部的风波升级，政策不确定性急剧上升引发全球资金涌入传 统避险资产，叠加地缘风险与经济数据的共振，推动金银价格走出凌厉上行态势，市场多空分歧也随之 加剧。 将2026年黄金价格预测上调至5000美元/盎司，美国银行则预计白银价格可能飙升至135-309美元/盎司的 峰值区间。中国外汇投资研究院李钢指出，若全球进入低增长+高财政压力+宽松货币的新常态，黄金 仍具备趋势性配置价值，核心运行区间可参考4300-5000美元/盎司。 谨慎观点则聚焦短期回调风险。瑞银最新报告发出警示，尽管长期看多黄金目标未变，但短期警报已拉 响，此前金价上涨更多是"搭了白银爆发的便车"，上涨"成色"不足。从技术面看，金银快速拉涨后已积 累大量获利盘，上期所已通过限制白银日内开仓量、调整保证金比例等方式降温，提示市场波动风险。 部分机构认为，若美联储风波出现缓和，或经济数据意外走强，可能引发金银的高位获利回吐，短期大 概率进入宽幅震荡区间。 影响后续走势的关键变量仍在动态演化。鲍威尔刑事调查的进展直接决定美 ...

Fidelity International的基金经理Mike Riddell说："我们以前经历过这种情况——对美联储的政治压力意味着美元走弱、美国长期国债收益率走高以及通胀预 期上升。" 白宫与美联储的冲突恐怕正进入"不再手下留情"的白热化阶段，市场波动剧烈，黄金白银不断刷新历史新高…… 在美国检察官对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查后，引发了市场对美联储独立性的担忧，黄金持续刷新历史新高 周一美盘，黄金一度涨超2%，并将历史记录刷新至4620美元上方，白银一度暴涨超7%。截止发稿前，二者均有所回落。 资产管理公司Carmignac的投资委员会成员Kevin Thozet表示，风险在于白宫与美联储之间在未来几个季度可能会"不再手下留情"。鲍威尔上周日表示，美联 储收到了大陪审团的传票以及司法部关于刑事起诉的威胁，这与他在国会就央行总部25亿美元翻新工程的证词有关。 投资者表示，美元和黄金的走势反映出一种风险，即由于政治压力，美国政策利率可能会被压低至低于本应有的水平，从而可能导致长期通胀上升和货币政 策的不确定性。 但市场波动的规模相对较小，许多投资者仍押注利率制定者将保持独立。高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatz ...

Group 1 - Global financial markets are showing signs of a year-end rally, with Asian stock markets reaching six-week highs despite some Western markets being closed for holidays [1][3] - The Japanese Topix index has reached an all-time high, while the South Korean benchmark index leads major global markets with a 72% annual increase [1][3] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific index has hit a new high since mid-November, with an annual cumulative return of 25% [1][3] Group 2 - The commodities market has outperformed the stock market, with precious metals leading the charge; silver prices surged over 4% in a single day, breaking historical records, and gold prices surpassed $4,500 per ounce [1][3] - Gold prices have increased by over 71% this year, marking the strongest annual performance since 1979, while silver has seen an annual increase of 158% [1][3] - The surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to strategic reserve purchases by global central banks and investors' demand for hedging against rising sovereign debt [1][3] Group 3 - The US dollar index is under pressure due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with an anticipated weekly decline of 0.8%, marking the weakest week since July [2][4] - The Japanese yen is fluctuating around 156, as the market interprets the Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike as relatively mild [2][4] - Japanese government bond yields have retreated from 26-year highs, alleviating some market anxiety [2][4]

年度报告——风险管理 2026 商品风险： 宏观主导的高波动与深分化 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 25 日 ★ 贵金属：避险资产存在风险 长期看好黄金的逻辑并未改变，但 2026 年需警惕宏观政策与 市场情绪变化带来的阶段性调整风险。1）若美国经济韧性及 "双峰通胀"延缓美联储降息步伐；2）经济温和复苏，或触 发资金从避险资产向风险资产的轮动；3）市场驱动力量已从 稳定的央行购金转向具有高反身性的西方 ETF 投资资金；4） 当前金价已计入极高风险溢价。 ★ 有色金属：宏观政策与供需结构性矛盾 1）美联储降息周期或因美国通胀粘性而放缓或停滞；2）重 塑全球贸易流向，引发区域供需失衡，非美地区库存缺失推 升逼仓风险；3）供给侧传统金属强化供给约束为价格提供支 撑，新能源金属产能出清缓慢压制价格；4）需求侧青黄不接。 ★ 黑色商品：后地产时代的阵痛 1）房地产周期的下行趋势仍难改观，制造业若贸易摩擦升级 或复苏不及预期；2）几内亚西芒杜项目产能爬坡，全球供应 彻底转向宽松；3）钢厂在微利状态下缺乏主动减产动力，陷 入囚徒困境；4）高产量库存积压，价格下跌压缩利润迫使钢 厂减产，进而打压原料价格并削弱成本支 ...

12月22日，纽约外汇市场美元指数维持低位震荡态势，美元指数报98.02，较前一交易日小幅上涨 0.02%，日内波动区间为97.95-98.10。从近期走势来看，美元指数自2025年初开启下行周期，截至12月 21日，年内跌幅已接近9.2%，较2024年末的108.48高点大幅回落，当前仍处于年内相对低位区间。 回溯近期市场表现，美元指数呈现明显的震荡下行特征。同花顺（300033）金融数据库数据显示，12月 以来，美元指数仅3个交易日收涨，其余交易日均呈现不同程度下跌，其中12月10日单日跌幅达 0.555%，当日收盘价跌至98.62；12月15日再度下跌0.485%，进一步下探至97.92。成交量方面，近期市 场交投略显清淡，12月17日成交量仅1.21万手，较12月初的2.38万手峰值大幅萎缩，反映出市场在关键 点位的观望情绪浓厚。 分析认为，美元指数持续承压的核心原因在于多重负面因素的叠加影响。首当其冲的是特朗普政府新一 轮"关税战"引发的市场信心动摇。自第二任期以来，美国强化"关税施压"原则，对多国发起对等关税和 行业关税，加剧全球贸易紧张局势。这一举措不仅推升美国进口商品价格，引发输入型通胀担忧， ...

中新网12月11日电(记者 左雨晴) 美联储年内最后一次降息终于落地。 当地时间12月10日，美国联邦储备委员会宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，到3.5%至3.75% 的水平。这是美联储今年第三次降息。 不过，在经历2025年大涨之后，尽管市场对2026年黄金价格的预期存在一定分歧，但总体而言长期支撑 因素仍在。 在董希淼看来，推动黄金牛市的核心逻辑，如央行购金需求、货币信用替代、资产配置需求等并未逆 转，地缘政治冲突产生的避险需求依然较高，从长期看黄金价格仍有支撑。 "2026年，美联储政策博弈、经济数据摇摆以及技术性调整需求，都可能使金价在高位呈现宽幅震荡， 波动性会显著高于单边上涨时期。"他说。 白银飙涨 比黄金更值得投资？ 随着降息落地，12月11日，贵金属价格普遍上涨。伦敦现货黄金日内最高触及4247.68美元/盎司，最大 涨幅0.58%；COMEX黄金日内最高触及4277.7美元/盎司，最大涨幅1.25%。 与此同时，白银价格再次刷新历史新高。伦敦现货白银日内最高触及62.884美元/盎司，最大涨幅 1.74%；COMEX白银日内最高触及63.25美元/盎司，最大涨幅3.64%。 | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the onset of a global "rate cut wave" following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with several central banks in the Middle East and Canada following suit [1][2][3][4][5][6]. - The Federal Reserve's future monetary policy path is characterized by significant uncertainty, as indicated by Chairman Powell's remarks about internal disagreements among officials regarding potential actions in December [1][9][10]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased to 67.8%, down from 95.3% prior to Powell's statements [1][9]. Group 2 - The Central Bank of Canada has also cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut, as the Canadian economy faced a contraction of 1.6% in the second quarter [6][7]. - The Canadian central bank's officials noted that the economy is undergoing a difficult transition due to structural damage from trade conflicts, which has limited the effectiveness of monetary policy [7]. - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its key interest rate at 2%, while the Bank of Japan's expectations for a rate hike have diminished significantly due to political pressures [8].

Core Viewpoint - A new wave of interest rate cuts is emerging globally following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates by 25 basis points, with several central banks in the Middle East and Canada also announcing similar cuts [1][3][5]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but there is significant uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, particularly for December [1][9]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that there are notable divisions among officials regarding the December meeting, suggesting that another rate cut is not guaranteed [1][9]. Global Central Bank Responses - Following the Fed's decision, the central banks of the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia have all announced a 25 basis point reduction in their benchmark rates [3][4][5]. - The Bank of Canada also reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut, as the Canadian economy faced challenges due to U.S. tariffs [5]. Economic Context - The Canadian economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, raising concerns about the potential for continued economic difficulties in the third quarter [5]. - The Bank of Canada highlighted that the economy is undergoing a difficult transition, with trade conflicts causing structural damage that limits the effectiveness of monetary policy [5][6]. Market Expectations - As of October 30, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December has decreased to 67.8%, with a 32.2% chance of maintaining the current rate [1][10]. - Prior to Powell's comments, the probability of a December rate cut was as high as 95.3%, indicating a significant shift in market expectations [10]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Fed's future monetary policy path is fraught with uncertainty, particularly in light of missing economic data and internal divisions among officials [9][10]. - Some experts believe that the outlook for a December rate cut is more nuanced than the market currently perceives, citing strong consumer spending and economic growth as potential reasons to slow the pace of rate cuts [11].

Core Viewpoint - A new wave of interest rate cuts is emerging globally, initiated by the Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates by 25 basis points, followed by similar actions from several central banks in the Middle East and Canada, indicating a shift in monetary policy amid economic uncertainties [2][4][7]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, but future rate paths remain uncertain, with significant internal disagreements among officials regarding potential actions in December [2][11]. - The probability of another rate cut in December has decreased to 67.8%, down from 95.3% prior to the recent statements by Fed Chair Jerome Powell [11]. Global Central Bank Responses - Following the Fed's announcement, the central banks of the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia also cut their benchmark rates by 25 basis points [4][5][6]. - The Bank of Canada reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut, as the Canadian economy faced challenges due to U.S. tariffs [7]. Economic Context - The Canadian economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, raising concerns about the potential for a negative growth in the third quarter [7]. - The Bank of Canada highlighted that the economy is undergoing a difficult transition due to structural damages from trade conflicts, which have limited the effectiveness of monetary policy [7][8]. Future Outlook - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its key interest rate at 2%, while the Bank of Japan's rate hike expectations have diminished due to political pressures [9]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed's future rate cuts may be more nuanced than the market currently anticipates, with strong consumer spending and economic growth potentially influencing the pace of future cuts [12].