Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company is expected to generate revenue of 3.2 billion RMB in Q4 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 1%, with adjusted net profit projected at 1.1 billion RMB, remaining flat year-over-year. This stability in revenue is primarily influenced by strategic adjustments in the freight brokerage and credit solutions businesses. The core freight transaction service's commission penetration and monetization capabilities are on a steady upward trajectory [1][2] - A long-term shareholder return plan has been established, committing to return at least 50% of the previous year's non-GAAP net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks. For 2026, a total of 400 million USD is earmarked for shareholder returns, including 300 million in dividends and 100 million for buybacks, indicating a clear and sustainable return mechanism [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.4 billion, 11.5 billion, and 13.9 billion RMB respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be 4.4 billion, 4.9 billion, and 6.5 billion RMB. The adjustments reflect a strategic contraction in the freight brokerage business, but the long-term profit outlook remains positive due to rapid growth in transaction services [5][11] - The company anticipates a 31% year-over-year increase in commission business revenue to 1.5 billion RMB in Q4 2025, with expectations of double-digit growth in the take rate by the end of 2026 [2] Business Optimization - The freight brokerage business is expected to generate 900 million RMB in Q4 2025, showing a year-over-year decline of 1.4%. The company plans to optimize its business model by collaborating with smaller freight platforms to improve profitability through technology service fees [3] - The company is controlling the scale of its micro-lending business while enhancing risk management, leading to stabilized risk indicators [3] Shareholder Return Mechanism - The long-term shareholder return plan has been approved by the board, ensuring a sustainable return to shareholders based on the company's stable cash flow from core operations [4] Valuation - The report adjusts the valuation to a target price of 16.1 USD for 2026, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 24 times, reflecting a premium valuation due to the company's leading position in China's digital freight market [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company is expected to generate revenue of 3.2 billion RMB in Q4 2025, with a year-over-year change of -1%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.1 billion RMB, remaining flat year-over-year. The overall revenue change is minimal, primarily due to strategic adjustments in the freight brokerage and credit solutions businesses. The core freight transaction service's commission penetration and monetization capabilities are steadily improving [1][2] - The company has announced a long-term shareholder return plan, committing to return at least 50% of the previous year's non-GAAP net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks. For 2026, the total shareholder return is set at 400 million USD, with 300 million allocated for dividends and 100 million for buybacks, indicating a clear and sustainable shareholder return mechanism [1][4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.4 billion, 11.5 billion, and 13.9 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The adjusted net profit is expected to be 4.9 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a long-term positive outlook despite short-term adjustments in the freight brokerage business [5][11] - The report anticipates a 31% year-over-year increase in commission business revenue to 1.5 billion RMB in Q4 2025, with expectations of double-digit growth in the take rate by the end of 2026 [2][3] Business Model and Strategy - The company is optimizing its freight brokerage and credit businesses, maintaining stability in scale and risk. Adjustments in the freight brokerage model, such as collaborating with small network freight platforms, are expected to enhance overall profitability [3] - New business investments, including approximately 500 million RMB in overseas markets and smart home initiatives, are deemed manageable and primarily exploratory, with limited impact on profitability [2] Valuation and Target Price - The report adjusts the valuation to a target price of 16.1 USD for 2026, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24 times, reflecting a premium valuation due to the company's leading position in China's digital freight market and the increasing online penetration rate [5][12]