Group 1 - The main focus of the market has shifted back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with officials maintaining a cautious stance while expectations for rate cuts in the second half of the year have increased [2][3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 75.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 24.8%. In September, the probability of maintaining rates is 10.6%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 68.1% [2] - Market bets indicate that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates once in September, October, and December this year [2][3] Group 2 - The geopolitical uncertainty, particularly regarding the U.S.-Iran conflict and the impact of tariffs, continues to pose inflation risks, providing support for precious metals [3] - The price of silver in Shanghai has shown an increase, with the main contract reported at 8795 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a rise of 1.69% [1]