交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：鲍威尔鸽派转向引爆市场，金价大幅走高；美国三大股指全线收涨，欧 洲三大股指收盘小幅上涨；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌5.45个基点 报4.261%；美元指数跌0.94%报97.72，离岸人民币对美元升值报7.1712；COMEX黄金 期货涨1.05%报3417.20美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货773.4，现货770.44，基差-2.96，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单37455千克，增加813千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线下方；偏空 5、主 ...

贵金属日报 2025-08-25 贵金属 沪金涨 0.71 %，报 781.12 元/克，沪银涨 1.98 %，报 9403.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.15 %， 报 3413.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 0.45 %，报 38.88 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.26%，美元指数报 97.77 ； 市场展望： 上周五晚间鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会的讲话显示其货币政策倾向出现重大边际转向，这标 志着新一轮降息周期的开启：就通胀问题，鲍威尔表示通胀虽然仍相对偏高，但已从疫情后的 高点大幅回落，更关键的是，鲍威尔表示"一个合理的基准情形是，关税对于价格的影响是相 对短暂的，即物价是一次性的变动"，即承认了关税对于通胀的影响并不具备持续性。对于劳 动力市场，鲍威尔表明了担忧，他认为当前劳动力市场的平衡来自于美国劳动力供给和需求的 双重放缓，而这正表明就业下行的风险在上升，并且可能将以裁员增加和失业率迅速上升的方 式呈现。关于后续的货币政策路径，鲍威尔认为联邦公开市场委员会的成员将继续根据数据及 其对经济前景和风险影响的评估来作出决定。即使鲍威尔仍表达了基于就业和通胀的货币政策 ...

每经记者｜吴永久 每经编辑｜闫峰峰 周末影响市场的最重要消息是：周五美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的讲话释放最强降息信号。在此消息刺激下，美股狂欢，中国资产大 涨。此外，工信部表示，将有序引导算力设施建设，加快突破GPU芯片等关键核心技术。在两大利好消息影响下，下周A股将如何演绎？ 在期货方面，在鲍威尔讲话的影响下，市场对9月降息的押注概率从75%飙升至90%，美元指数跳水，黄金、有色金属期货直线拉升。相比A股的火爆行情， 目前黄金、白银、有色金属期货经过一段时间的盘整后，周五才刚启动。 目前，A股行情火爆，一些股民赚指数不赚钱，为方便选手了解有价值的信息，与高手交流市场热点和投资技巧。报名掘金大赛后，就能申请加入掘金大赛 交流群，加群方法是：点击微信主页右上角"+"号，选择"添加朋友"，然后点击"企业微信联系人"，输入手机号13882019385，添加企业微信火山君。 鲍威尔释放出降息信号，美股狂欢，哪些品种性价比高？ 周五，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上的讲话彻底点燃了9月降息的预期，刺激美股大涨。 对于下周A股大盘的走势，在掘金大赛中，有参赛高手认为，本周上证指数在突破近十年的高点373 ...

周度期货价量总览 2025年8月22日 星期五 | 国投期货｜宏观金融团队 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 周收盘价 周涨跌幅 20日年化波动率 商品类别 | 波动率变化(%) | 投机度 | 趋势度 | 资金变动 | | -0.31% 7.80% 黄金 773.40 贵金属 | -28.40% | 0.71 | -0.30 | -43.33 | | 白银 9,192.00 -0.13% 16.56% | 2.51% | 1.06 | -0.07 | -12.97 | | -0.47% 6.36% 铜 78,690.00 | -30.77% | 0.33 | -0.05 | -11.08 | | 119,610.00 -0.96% 11.38% 镍 | -17.95% | 1.10 | -0.25 | 3.69 | | 铝 20,630.00 -0.58% 5.73% | -26.01% | 0.55 | -0.12 | -8.12 | | -0.33% 8.91% 有色金属 锡 265,9 ...

投 资 避险与降息预期回落 贵金属等候央行年会指引？ www.shanjinqh.com 作者：林振龙 一、避险属性 投资 咨询资 格证号： 咨 询 部 1、俄乌变数依旧，地缘冲突风险仍存。乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，俄罗 斯隔夜在乌克兰多地发动的大规模袭击显示，莫斯科正在回避就结束战争进行 谈判； Z0018476 审核：曹有明 2025 年 8 月 22 日星期五 2、特朗普贸易战进入新阶段，白宫官员称特朗普已签署行政令，美中关 税休战期再延 90 天。 投资 咨询资 格证号： Z0013162 二、货币属性 复核：刘书语 黄 金 白 银 1、本周多位美联储官员给 9 月降息"泼冷水"。美国上周初请失业金人 数创约三个月最大增幅，劳动力市场疲态持续。美联储会议纪要显示，只有两 位决策者支持在 7 月会议上降息。美国 7 月零售销售强劲增长，美国 7 月批发 价格跳涨，美联储降息路线图增添变数； 期货 从业 资格证 号： F03107583 电话：021–2062 7529 2、非农之后美联储内部分歧仍存。本周联储 9 月降息预期从 85%回调至 71%附近，且年内降息次数预期从 3 次跌回 2 次。美元指数与 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market was initially pressured by the spill - over risk of steel and aluminum tariffs, but silver prices recovered since Thursday. Trump's pressure on the Fed and potential impacts on the dollar's credit support gold prices. The Fed has differences in views on interest rate cuts, and the US macro - data shows economic resilience, keeping gold in a range - bound pattern and silver showing relative resilience [7]. - Future market trading may focus on the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire expectation and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The risk of stagflation remains a market concern, and the Fed's officials being intervened by the government may support gold's safe - haven demand [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, paying attention to the unexpected results of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the Fed's hawkish stance. Specific price ranges are given for gold and silver contracts [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The precious metals market was pressured by steel and aluminum tariffs, but silver recovered. Trump's actions and Fed's internal differences affected the market. US macro - data showed economic resilience, with the manufacturing PMI rising and employment data showing some weakness [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The US economic data fluctuates due to tariff expectations, and the employment market shows signs of cooling. The Fed's officials being intervened may support gold's safe - haven demand. Market trading will focus on the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire and Powell's speech [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to negotiation results and Fed's stance. Specific price ranges are provided for gold and silver contracts [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of August 22, 2025, COMEX silver rose 1.05% to $38.42 per ounce, while the Shanghai silver futures contract fell 0.13%. COMEX gold fell 0.35% to $3370 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold futures contract fell 0.41% [10]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 21, 2025, the SLV silver ETF's holdings increased 1.40% to 15278 tons, and the SPDR gold ETF's holdings decreased 0.50% to 956.77 tons [15]. - **Speculative Net Positions**: As of August 12, 2025, both COMEX gold and silver speculative net positions decreased, with gold's total and net positions falling 0.78% and 3.19% respectively, and silver's total and net positions falling 3.00% and 12.61% respectively [20]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of August 12, 2025, COMEX gold's non - commercial long positions decreased 1.40%, and short positions increased 6.30% [25]. - **Basis Changes**: As of August 21, 2025, the gold basis fell 27.68% to - $3.46 per gram, and the silver basis fell 12.50% to - $18 per kilogram [27]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of August 21, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.18%, while Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory increased 0.83%. COMEX silver inventory increased 0.20%, and SHFE silver inventory decreased 1.50% [35] 3. Industrial Supply and Demand Silver - **Import Data**: As of July 2025, China's silver imports decreased 7.46% month - on - month, while silver ore imports increased 22.32% [39]. - **Down - stream Demand**: As of July 2025, semiconductor silver demand drove up the growth rate of integrated circuit production, with a 15% year - on - year increase [45]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, silver's industrial demand increased 4%, coin and net bar demand decreased 22%, and ETF net investment demand turned positive. The supply - demand gap has been narrowing, with a 26% decrease in 2024 [51][55] Gold - **Price Changes**: As of August 21, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price rose 0.25% week - on - week, and gold jewelry prices showed mixed trends [59]. - **Demand Changes**: In Q2 2025, the World Gold Council reported a slight decline in gold ETF investment demand. Central bank gold purchases slowed, and high gold prices led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [61] 4. Macroeconomic and Options - **Dollar and Interest Rates**: The expectation of interest rate cuts decreased slightly, and the dollar strengthened this week. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio decreased. The 10 - year US break - even inflation rate remained basically flat [65][70][74] - **Central Bank Actions**: In August 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons [78]

| 贵金属日评20250822:特朗普对更多美联储官员施压辞职,美国8月非官方PMI意外走高 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-21 | 2025-08-20 | 2025-08-15 | 收盘价 | 775.12 | 772.68 | 775.80 | 2. 44 | -0. 68 | | | | | | | | 成交量 | -24, 336. 00 | 128755.00 | 153091.00 | -31,854.00 | 160609.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 183215.00 | 191474.00 | -8, 259. 00 | 197655.00 | -14, 440. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 36642.00 | 36582. 00 | 297.00 | 36345.00 | 60. 00 | 上海黄金 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-08-22 美国经济韧性仍存 货币政策不确定性增强 市场分析 宏观面经济数据方面，美国8月标普全球制造业PMI初值录得53.3，为2022年5月以来最高，远超预期值49.5；服务 业PMI小幅下滑至55.4，但制造业大幅上行推动综合PMI升至9个月新高的55.4。就业市场方面，美国上周初请失业 金人数增加1.1万人至23.5万人，创6月以来新高，高于市场预期的22.5万人；前一周续请失业金人数升至197万人， 为2021年11月以来的最高水平。货币政策方面，克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克表示，如果美联储官员明天就要做出政 策决议，她不会支持9月会议上降息；并认为"当前通胀水平过高，并且在过去一年呈上升趋势。"她承认劳动力市 场担忧，但认为失业率仍接近她对充分就业水平的预估。CME的Fedwatch工具显示，市场押注9月降息25BP概率为 75%，维持不变概率为25%。 2025-08-21，沪金主力合约开于776.50元/克，收于775.12元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.32%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于776.00元/克，收于776.08 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: PMI and Fed officials' remarks dampened the September interest - rate cut expectation, causing gold prices to fluctuate. The Shanghai - gold premium continued to widen to 1.47 yuan/gram. Attention should be paid to Fed Chair Powell's speech at the central bank annual meeting, as the interest - rate cut expectation is volatile, leading to gold price fluctuations [4]. - **Silver**: The release of details of the US - EU trade agreement led to a rebound in silver prices after a decline. PMI and Fed officials' remarks dampened the September interest - rate cut expectation, but the impact on silver prices was limited. The Shanghai - silver premium remained at around 400 yuan/kg. As the market awaited the central bank annual meeting and risk appetite recovered, silver prices fluctuated [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US stocks were mixed, US bond yields rose (10 - year US bond yield up 2.92 basis points to 4.316%), the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 98.65, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.15% to $3383.5 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: US stocks were mixed, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly. COMEX silver futures rose 0.87% to $38.1 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis was - 3.42 (spot at a discount to futures), inventory increased by 60 kg to 36642 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 29 (spot at a discount to futures), Shanghai silver futures inventory decreased by 25144 kg to 1115055 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position decreased [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:30 Japan's July CPI; 14:00 Germany's Q2 GDP final value; Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (until August 23); 20:30 Canada's June retail sales; 21:00 Boston Fed President Susan M. Collins on Bloomberg TV; 22:00 Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting; 23:30 Cleveland Fed President Hammack on CNBC; Saturday: South Korean President Lee Jae - myung's visit to Japan and the ROK - Japan summit; Sunday 00:25 ECB President Lagarde and BOE Governor Bailey at a panel discussion [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logical drivers include the global turmoil after Trump's inauguration, the shift from inflation to recession expectations, and the continued verification of the new US government's policies, making gold prices still likely to rise [10]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The impact of tariff concerns on silver prices is stronger, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1.43% to 609,750, the short - position volume decreased by 2.35% to 457,223, and the net position increased by 1.45% to 152,527 [31]. - **Silver**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 1.50% to 1,052,297, the short - position volume decreased by 1.44% to 959,065, and the net position decreased by 2.15% to 93,232 [33]. - **ETF**: Gold ETF holdings continued to decline, and silver ETF holdings decreased slightly but were higher than the same period in the past two years [36][39]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level; Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly and were higher than last year, while COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [40][41][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific trend, such as high - level oscillation, slight decline, waiting for policy guidance, etc. [2][5] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 775.12, up 0.32%. The SPDR Gold ETF's position decreased by 1. [2][7][10] - **Silver**: Forecasted to decline slightly, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 yesterday was 9162, up 1.31%. The SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) decreased by 28. [2][7][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: Waiting for the Fed's interest - rate cut guidance, with narrowing price fluctuations and a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract yesterday was 78,630, down 0.30%. PT Smelting's smelting plant extended its maintenance period due to equipment failure. [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract yesterday was 22240, down 0.11%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1875 tons. [2][15][17] - **Lead**: Supported by inventory reduction, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract yesterday was 16745, up 0.12%. Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 1481 tons. [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Forecasted to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract yesterday was 266,480, down 0.51%. [2][21][24] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20590. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 57.90 million tons, down 0.70 million tons. [2][25][27] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate at a low level, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 119,830. [2][28][34] - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,795. [2][29][34] Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Supported by macro - sentiment premium, with expected increase in import costs. [5] - **Propylene**: With tightening supply - demand and price support. [5] - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long term. [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Mainly in an oscillating trend, with short - term strengthening. [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Weak and in consolidation, with a slight rebound in the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market. [5] - **PTA**: Due to unplanned device shutdown, a long - spread strategy is recommended. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4860, up 1.72%. [2][61][62] - **MEG**: Expected to show a strong trend. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4473, down 0.09%. [2][61][62] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Compressing profit margins. [2] - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market. [2] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The US bio - diesel exemption volume may be lower than expected, leading to an increase in international oil prices. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating and consolidating at a high level. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: Due to the large increase in US soybeans overnight, Dalian soybean meal may rebound. [5] - **Soybean**: Rebounding and oscillating. [5] - **Corn**: Expected to run weakly. [5] - **Sugar**: Oscillating within a range. [5] - **Cotton**: The futures price fluctuates narrowly, waiting for new drivers. [5] - **Egg**: Attention should be paid to the rhythm of culling laying hens. [5] - **Live Pig**: Waiting for the end - of - month spot verification. [5] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. [5] Others - **Iron Ore**: Supported by the fact that the macro - risk preference has not significantly declined. The closing price of the iron - ore futures contract was 772.5, up 0.46%. [2][43][44] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the RB2510 contract was 3,121, down 0.03%. [2][46][47] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the HC2510 contract was 3,375, down 0.44%. [2][47] - **Silicon Iron**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the silicon - iron 2511 contract was 5638. [2][51] - **Manganese Silicon**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the manganese - silicon 2511 contract was 5820. [2][51] - **Coke**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the J2601 contract was 1664, down 0.8%. [2][54] - **Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the JM2601 contract was 1147, down 1.3%. [2][54] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 804.5, down 0.1%. [2][57][58] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is recommended to hold 10 short positions as appropriate. [5] - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level, with limited upward momentum. [5] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating weakly. [5]