1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions show marginal easing signals, but there is still uncertainty. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly bullish pattern, with the Au2606 contract oscillating between 980 yuan/gram and 1080 yuan/gram. The silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern, with the Ag2606 contract oscillating between 18,000 yuan/kilogram and 19,500 yuan/kilogram [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical tensions show easing signals. The US and Iran express willingness to end the war, but negotiations have not started yet [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On March 31, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1023.80 yuan/gram and closed at 1020.10 yuan/gram, a change of 0.51% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1040.82 yuan/gram, up 2.03% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 17,949.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 18,126.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 2.37% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 881,875 lots, and the open interest was 241,055 lots. The night session closed at 18,954 yuan/kilogram, up 4.57% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 31, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.309%, down 0.99 BP from the previous trading day. The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.53%, a change of -0.45 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2606 contract, the long positions changed by 4,419 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by -695 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 432,534 lots, a change of -14.43% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2606 contract, the long positions changed by 4,883 lots, and the short positions changed by 6,775 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,341,387 lots, a change of -15.77% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position was 1,046.13 tons, down 3.43 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,274 tons, down 14 tons from the previous trading day [5] Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On March 31, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 5.66 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 70.59 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 56.28, a change of -1.81% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 64.00, a change of -1.04% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 59,994 kilograms, a change of -34.18% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 345,804 kilograms, a change of 17.53% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and short - term uncertainty is high. Investors should control positions and prevent risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Quotes - International precious metal futures generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 3.12% to $4699.60 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 6.77% to $75.34 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract rose 1.97% to 1040.82 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract rose 5.18% to 18954 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - On March 31, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust increased by 1.143 tons to 1047.276 tons, while the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 14.08 tons to 15274.28 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 98.4%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 3.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 94.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate hike is 1.5% [1]. - Eurozone consumer prices rose 2.5% year - on - year in March, up from 1.9% in February, the highest level since January 2025 [1]. - In February, US job vacancies fell to 6.882 million, slightly lower than the market expectation of 6.89 million, and significantly lower than the revised 7.24 million in January. Recruitment and separation numbers both hit multi - year lows, indicating a cooling labor market [1]. - Trump is willing to end the war when the Strait of Hormuz is not fully open. The US "Bush" aircraft carrier is being deployed to the Middle East. Iran's president said the only way to restore regional order is to stop aggressive attacks, and Iran's foreign minister said Iran will not agree to a cease - fire but demands an end to the war in the entire region [1]. Market Logic - US job vacancies declined in February, and the recruitment speed slowed down significantly. The US and Iran both showed a willingness to end the Middle East conflict, leading to a sharp rise in US stocks. International crude oil prices fell, US bond yields declined, the 2 - year US bond yield fell about 3 basis points to 3.79%, and the US dollar ended a five - day rising trend, falling 0.62% and closing below 100 at 99.88. COMEX gold and silver both rose significantly, with silver rising more. The US president's statement about ending the Iran war in two to three weeks may be a signal of de - escalation, but its credibility depends on subsequent actions. If negotiations break down, market sentiment may reverse quickly, and volatility will remain high [1][2]. Trading Strategy - Due to geopolitical influence, market short - term uncertainty is large. Investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, which has a broad impact on various commodity futures markets [1][8][9][10]. - Different commodity markets show diverse trends and characteristics, with some markets being influenced by supply - demand relationships, while others are more affected by geopolitical events and policy factors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The international gold price denominated in London gold rose 3.51% to $4668 per ounce, and the international silver price rose 7.10% to $75.01 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There are signs of easing in the US - Iran conflict, but the conflict is not over [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a pull - back to buy gold; for silver, suggest gradually taking profits on previous short positions [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated strongly [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The authenticity of the news that the Iranian president wants to end the war under security guarantees is to be verified. The supply of copper ore and scrap copper remains tight, and the spot of flat - water copper in East and South China is traded at a discount of 60 yuan and a premium of 50 yuan respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest waiting and seeing [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.61% to 24,875 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 245 yuan per ton, with the LME price at $3475 per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The attack on core aluminum plants in the Middle East leads to expectations of supply contraction, and it is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate strongly. Suggest buying on dips [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 3.88% to 2827 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 118 yuan per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is relatively stable, and aluminum smelters maintain high - load production [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by the release of new production capacity in Guangxi, the pattern of oversupply is further deepened. It is expected that alumina prices will oscillate weakly. Suggest waiting and seeing, and focus on the implementation of Guinea's mining policy [1]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On March 31, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 23,480 yuan per ton and 16,500 yuan per ton respectively, with changes of - 60 yuan and + 5 yuan compared to the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 23,480 yuan per ton and - 16,500 yuan per ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 0.68 and 68.8 dollars per ton respectively. The seven - place zinc inventory on March 30 was 248,200 tons, a decrease of 1300 tons compared to March 26, and the five - place lead inventory on March 30 was 57,500 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared to March 26 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The lead ingot inventory is accelerating its depletion, and the lead price shows a stop - falling signal. However, the import window is open, and the lead battery enters the traditional off - season in April. With the co - existence of the resumption of production of secondary lead and new overhauls, it is expected that the lead price will continue to oscillate narrowly. In the zinc market, the disturbance at the mine end intensifies, the import processing fee drops to a negative value, the domestic smelters have strong demand for ore, and the social inventory continues to deplete to below 250,000 tons. The tower and export orders support consumption, but there is still uncertainty in the macro - sentiment [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For lead, pay attention to the implementation of smelter overhauls. If the inventory depletion continues, try to buy on dips. For zinc, the fundamentals improve, but the macro - risk is large. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8355 yuan per ton, a decrease of 125 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 1.47%, the position decreased by 18,817 lots to 201,800 lots (- 8.53%), and the trading volume decreased by 11,006 lots to 172,049 lots (- 6.01%). The variety's precipitated funds decreased by 171 million to 3.037 billion, and the warehouse receipt volume today was 22,313 lots (+ 24) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the number of weekly industrial silicon furnaces in operation is flat compared to the previous period. With the year - on - year decline in electricity prices in the southwest region, enterprises' willingness to resume production increases, and there is an expectation of increased production in the future. On the demand side, the polysilicon industry resumed work in March, and the monthly production capacity is gradually released, with the expected monthly output approaching 90,000 tons; the output of the organic silicon industry is stable, and the price trend is stable. The price of aluminum alloy decreased slightly, but the industry's start - up rate increased to 59.5%, reaching a new high this year [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to whether subsequent measures such as coordinated market control and joint price stabilization will be introduced after last week's meeting. The organic silicon industry will hold a meeting in Jinan on April 2 to discuss production cuts and price increases. In the short term, although the market pays attention to the support level increase brought by energy costs, the high - level hedging pressure is obvious. It is expected that the market will maintain an oscillating pattern in the range of 8100 - 8900 [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 157,200 yuan per ton (- 14,420), with a closing price decrease of 8.40% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, a large amount of funds flowed out, and the market was under pressure to fall. The expectation of the continuation of the US - Iran war weakened, and the concern about the shortage of diesel supply in Australia affecting lithium ore mining is expected to ease. The export ban in Zimbabwe has no progress, and its supply disturbance will gradually be reflected in mid - to late April. However, the expectation of the strengthening of the preference for new - energy vehicles and energy - storage consumption due to oil price fluctuations remains unchanged, and the trend of the weekly demand recovery at the power end is clear. The spot price of SMM Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is $2360 per ton, an increase of $25 per ton compared to the previous day, and the SMM electric carbon price is 163,000 (- 1500) yuan per ton. On the supply side, the weekly output is 24,814 tons, a month - on - month increase of 628 tons, due to the recovery of the spodumene production line. SMM expects the lithium carbonate production in March to be 106,390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% compared to January. On the demand side, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate in March is 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% compared to January; the production schedule of ternary materials in March is 84,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% compared to January. In terms of inventory, the short - term weekly inventory shows a slight accumulation. The export ban of lithium ore in Zimbabwe has no progress, and it is expected that the supply gap of at least one month will be gradually reflected in mid - to late April. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the policy progress in Zimbabwe. The sample inventory is 99,489 tons, an increase of 616 tons in inventory, among which the smelting link has an inventory increase of 724 tons, the downstream link has an inventory increase of 552 tons, and the trader link has an inventory decrease of 660 tons. The total inventory days are 27.9 (+ 0.2) days. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 11,318 (- 19,746) lots. Pay attention to the growth rate slope of new warehouse receipts after centralized cancellation. The funds precipitated in the market are 30.1 (- 3.78) billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With supply disturbances and a clear trend of demand recovery, it is expected to oscillate widely. Buy on dips at the lower edge of the range and be cautious about chasing high [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 35,200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1350 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 3.69%, the position decreased by 128 lots to 34,456 lots (- 0.37%), and the trading volume decreased by 5768 lots to 10,763 lots (- 34.89%). The variety's precipitated funds decreased by 16 million to 1.758 billion, and the warehouse receipt volume today was 11,030 lots (+ 10) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the weekly polysilicon output is flat compared to the previous period, and the month - on - month increase in industry inventory has significantly narrowed. The production schedule in April is basically flat compared to the previous month. On the demand side, the prices of downstream photovoltaic - related products still continue to decline, but the decline rate is gradually slowing down. The expected production schedule of components in April is reduced by 7.26GW month - on - month. From January to February 2026, the newly - installed domestic photovoltaic capacity decreased by 17.71% year - on - year, with an average monthly installed capacity of 16GW, showing a stable performance. The export data of battery cells and components in February decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year trends were divergent. The component exports to Europe increased slightly year - on - year [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price of polysilicon has been continuously declining this week, and the market sentiment is weak. The current market still needs to fully digest the negative factors such as the weakening of the spot market. Coupled with the relatively high volatility of the variety, it is recommended to focus on tracking the actual downstream procurement situation and the transaction order price in the short term, and mainly wait and see in operation [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices oscillated strongly [3]. - **Fundamentals**: There is news that the Iranian president wants to end the war under security guarantees, but the authenticity of the news is to be verified. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the spot is still traded at a high premium. The domestic warehouse receipts are decreasing rapidly every day, and the London structure is 375 dollars contango [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest waiting and seeing [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 rebar contract closed at 3124 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The building material inventory in the Gangyin caliber decreased by 0.3% to 6.63 million tons month - on - month, and was basically flat last week. The rebar out - bound volume in Hangzhou on the weekend was 68,000 tons, compared with 76,000 tons last week; the inventory was 1.548 million tons, compared with 1.522 million tons last week and 1.127 million tons in the same period last year. The building material demand has marginally improved but is still slightly weaker year - on - year. Fortunately, the supply has decreased year - on - year, and the contradiction is limited. The plate demand has marginally stabilized, and the direct and indirect exports remain at a relatively high level. The inventory depletion speed is at a neutral level in the same period of history. The steel mill profit is poor, and the production increase space is limited. The steel spot price is a bit weak in following the rise, and the futures discount has narrowed [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. Hold the short position of rebar 2605 cautiously or choose the opportunity to exit. The reference range for RB05 is 3100 - 3160 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 iron ore contract closed at 815 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron ore arrival volume increased by 1.237 million tons to 22.802 million tons month - on - month, and the shipment volume decreased by 6.72 million tons to 24.724 million tons month - on - month. The iron ore supply - demand margin remains stable. The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 30,000 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3% year - on - year. The coking plant proposed a price increase, but it has not been implemented yet. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope is limited. The supply side conforms to the seasonal law. The furnace charge inventory of steel mills is slightly high, and the inventory days remain above the historical average level. Although the total port inventory has increased by about 24 million tons to 170 million tons year - on - year, the proportion of mainstream iron ore inventory in ports is low, and there is a certain structural contradiction. The iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure but is significantly lower year - on - year, and the valuation is slightly high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 800 - 830 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 coking coal contract closed at 1147.5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 43.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 30,000 tons to 22.82 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3% year - on - year. The coke proposed a price increase, but it has not been implemented yet. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope may be gentle. The port customs clearance at the supply end maintains a high level, and the inventory in each link is differentiated. The port and mine - mouth inventories are high, while the inventories in other links are low, and the overall inventory level is neutral. The 05 contract futures have a premium over the spot, and the forward - premium structure is maintained, with the futures valuation being high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. Hold the short position of coking coal 2605 cautiously. The reference range for JM05 is 1120 - 1170 [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose because the US soybean planting area intention was slightly lower than the market expectation [6]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, it is loose in the near - term, and there is an expectation of increased production capacity for new US soybean crops in the far - term. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing is strong, and the exports conform to the seasonality. In general, the expectation of global supply - demand looseness remains unchanged [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the looseness suppresses the price. Pay attention to the production in the producing areas and crude oil; in China, it also follows the cost side. Pay attention to the macro - crude oil and the arrival volume [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn futures price declined, and the corn spot price decreased in the Northeast and slightly increased in the North China [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Currently, the grain - selling progress exceeds 80%, but the progress is slow. The mentality in the producing areas, especially in North China, has loosened, and the enthusiasm for selling grain has increased. The policy wheat auction volume has increased, and both the transaction rate and the premium have declined. Coupled with the good growth of new - season wheat seedlings, the wheat price has weakened. After the spot price rose to a high level, the expectation of policy regulation has increased, and the spot price is expected to adjust weakly. Pay attention to the auction situation of the minimum - purchase - price wheat and the changes in the purchase - and - sale rhythm [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since the transaction rate and premium of the wheat auction have both declined, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. White Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 0

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As the impact of the geopolitical situation on the market is gradually digested, if the gold ETF holdings stop falling and rebound, indicating improved confidence of allocation funds, one can try to go long on dips in the range of $4400 - $4500, and pay attention to the stage resistance of the 20 - day moving average [1] - In the short term, with the easing of the US - Iran war, silver is expected to stabilize above $70 along with gold. One can seize the opportunity for a band - up move with boosted market sentiment, and the upper resistance is at $85 [1] - Platinum's price is rising in the central range of $1850 - $2015, and palladium is oscillating above $1400. Since palladium has a relatively weaker fundamental, the long position on the platinum - palladium ratio can continue to be held [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2606 contract closed at 1020.10 yuan/gram on March 31, up 0.51% (5.22 yuan) from March 30 [1] - AG2606 contract closed at 18126 yuan/kilogram on March 31, up 2.37% (419 yuan) from March 30 [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 493.10 yuan/gram on March 31, down 0.88% (4.40 yuan) from March 30 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 361.40 yuan on March 31, up 1.15% (4.10 yuan) from March 30 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力合约 closed at 4699.60 on March 31, up 3.51% (159.20) from March 30 [1] - COMEX silver主力合约 closed at 75.35 on March 31, up 7.36% (5.16) from March 30 [1] - NYMEX platinum主力合约 closed at 1962.30 dollars/ounce on March 31, up 3.67% (69.40) from March 30 [1] - NYMEX palladium主力合约 closed at 1488.50 on March 31, up 5.31% (75.00) from March 30 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4669.13 on March 31, up 3.45% (155.61) from the previous value [1] - London silver was at 75.11 on March 31, up 7.24% (5.07) from the previous value [1] - Spot platinum was at 1950.00 dollars/ounce on March 31, up 3.34% (63.00) from the previous value [1] - Spot palladium was at 1448.00 on March 31, up 1.26% (18.00) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D was at 1015.68 yuan/gram on March 31, up 0.67% (6.72 yuan) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D was at 18031 yuan/kilogram on March 31, up 2.68% (471 yuan) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 495 yuan/gram on March 31, up 1.10% (5 yuan) from the previous value [1] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 4.42, up 1.50 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 had a change, and the 1 - year historical quantile was 60.60% [1] - Another basis was 3.66, up 0.74 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.20% [1] - London gold - COMEX gold had a change [1] - London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.05, up 0.02 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 59.70% [1] Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver was 62.37 on March 31, down 3.59% (2.32) from the previous value [1] - SHFE gold/silver was 56.28 on March 31, down 1.81% (1.04) from the previous value [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.32 on March 31, down 1.56% (0.02) from the previous value [1] - GZFE platinum/palladium was 1.36 on March 31, down 2.01% (0.03) from the previous value [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.30 on March 31, down 1.1% (0.05) from the previous value [1] - 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.79 on March 31, down 0.8% (0.03) from the previous value [1] - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 2.00 on March 31, down 2.0% (0.04) from the previous value [1] - US dollar index was 09.88 on March 31, down 0.62% (0.62) from the previous value [1] - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.8879 on March 31, down 0.41% (0.0285) from the previous value [1] Inventories and Holdings - SHFE gold inventory was 106644 kilograms on March 31, unchanged from the previous value [1] - SHFE silver inventory was 368667 on March 31, down 1.54% (5760) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 31533901 on March 31, down 0.01% (2604) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver inventory was 327820669 on March 31, up 0.07% (231248) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts was 16563243 on March 31, down 0.33% (55291) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts was 76429739 on March 31, up 0.53% (404881) from the previous value [1] - SPRD gold ETF holdings was 1047 on March 31, up 0.11% (1.15) from the previous value [1] - SLV silver ETF holdings was 15274 on March 31, down 0.09% (14.08) from the previous value [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2026, the gold market experienced a sharp shift from "safe - haven frenzy" to "stagflation concerns", with the short - term safe - haven property of gold temporarily overshadowed by soaring interest rate expectations, creating a false impression of "ineffectiveness". In Q2, investors should focus on the "golden pit" layout opportunities between interest rates and geopolitical conflicts [1]. - The current market is forming a "stagflation - like" pattern. In the short term, gold may be under pressure, but as economic downward pressure emerges, its anti - inflation and safe - haven values will re - emerge [2]. - Gold is expected to have a wide - range shock and bottom - building in the short term (1 - 3 months), its allocation value will significantly increase in the medium term (3 - 6 months) if economic data continues to be weak, and it has a long - term bullish logic supported by structural factors in the long term (6 - 12 months). Silver will follow gold to bottom and wait for industrial demand to catalyze in Q2 [3]. - Investors can consider 4300 US dollars per ounce as a tactical layout reference area, and if the price approaches 3900 - 4000 US dollars per ounce due to extreme sentiment, it should be regarded as an important strategic adding opportunity [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2026 Q1 Market Review: Violent Fluctuations under Geopolitical Conflicts and Policy Shifts - **Geopolitical Conflicts: From Safe - Haven Pulse to Risk Re - evaluation**: In early March, the US - Israel joint military action against Iran triggered a safe - haven pulse in the market. COMEX gold once exceeded 5400 US dollars per ounce, and Brent crude oil price soared. However, as the conflict situation eased marginally in mid - to late March, high oil prices led to an increase in global inflation expectations, changing the market's macro trading logic [7][10]. - **Monetary Policy Shift: The Fed's Hawkish Signal as the Market Watershed**: The Fed's March interest - rate meeting sent a strong hawkish signal, reversing the market's easing expectations. The strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields directly suppressed the price of gold, and the price of gold dropped significantly [11][14]. - **Asset Performance Differentiation: Different Paths of Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil**: Gold showed a trend of rising first and then falling, while silver performed significantly weaker than gold, with a quarterly decline of more than 4% due to the suppression of its financial and industrial attributes [15][18]. - **Market Structure Change: From Crowded Trading to Liquidity Shock**: The highly crowded long positions in the gold market at the end of 2025 to early 2026 became an amplifier of the market decline when the price turned. The triggering of stop - loss orders in program trading and the widening of bid - ask spreads by market - makers led to a sharp decline in market liquidity [21][24]. - **Structural Factors: Marginal Changes in Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Global central banks' continuous gold - buying behavior provided long - term support for the gold price. However, in Q1 2026, the motivation for central bank gold purchases weakened significantly, and selling behavior increased compared to 2025 [25][28]. 3.2 Macro Environment Analysis: The Fed's Hawkish Stance, Inflation Pressure, and Economic Stagflation Risk - **Monetary Policy: A Clear Shift from "Wait - and - See" to "Tightening"**: The Fed's decision in the March interest - rate meeting marked a fundamental shift in its policy stance. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts decreased significantly, and global central banks mostly maintained a hawkish or tightening stance, which put short - term pressure on the gold price [30][33]. - **Inflation Drivers: Energy Prices as the Core Driver and Policy Constraint**: Geopolitical conflicts led to an energy crisis, which was the main driver of inflation. High oil prices increased inflation and suppressed economic growth, forming a stagflation risk. If inflation persists, it may increase the demand for gold as an anti - inflation asset [38][41]. - **Economic Outlook: The Co - existence of "Stagnation" Signs and "Inflation" Pressure**: The US economy showed signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising and the manufacturing PMI approaching the boom - bust line. The global economic growth expectation faced a downward risk, and the current environment formed a "stagflation - like" pattern, which was a stage where gold could play its unique value [42][46]. - **Interest Rates and the US Dollar: Twin Shackles Suppressing Precious Metals**: The Fed's hawkish stance led to an increase in US Treasury yields and a strengthening of the US dollar, which directly suppressed the price of gold. The market was in a game between "interest - rate suppression" and "safe - haven/anti - inflation support" [47][50]. 3.3 Geopolitical Impact Mechanism: The Double - Game and Transmission Path of the Middle East Conflict on Gold - The impact of the Middle East conflict on gold is through two opposite transmission paths: the safe - haven demand support path and the interest - rate expectation suppression path. In Q1 2026, the market's focus shifted from the safe - haven support path to the interest - rate expectation suppression path, and the pricing logic of gold has changed from being driven by geopolitical events to being driven by macro - policy expectations [51][52]. 3.4 Re - examination of Gold's Safe - Haven Property: Verification of Long - Term Logic and Analysis of Short - Term Ineffectiveness - **Solid Foundation and Continuous Verification of Long - Term Safe - Haven Logic**: Gold's long - term safe - haven logic is based on its currency property, scarcity, and functions of hedging long - term inflation and currency depreciation. It has been continuously verified in the long - term, and current structural factors are strengthening this logic [54]. - **Characteristics and Core Mechanisms of Short - Term "Ineffectiveness" in Q1 2026**: In March 2026, the short - term performance of gold was contrary to traditional safe - haven cognition. This "ineffectiveness" was the result of multiple suppression mechanisms under specific market conditions, rather than the disappearance of its safe - haven property [55]. - **Differentiated Performance of Short - Term and Long - Term Logic Based on the Nature of the Crisis**: Gold's safe - haven property depends on the nature of the crisis. In the short term, it may be affected by interest - rate and liquidity factors, but in the long term, its safe - haven and anti - inflation properties will re - emerge [56]. - **Subsequent Verification: Key Indicators for Observing the Return of Long - Term Logic**: In Q2, key indicators such as the Fed's policy and inflation game, market liquidity, geopolitical risk transmission path, and the continuity of structural demand should be closely monitored to judge whether gold's safe - haven property will return to the dominant state [57][58]. 3.5 Future Gold Price Changes at Different Time Nodes - **Short - Term (1 - 3 months)**: The gold price will be affected by the after - effects of the liquidity shock and the tug - of - war of interest - rate expectations. It may show a wide - range shock pattern in the early stage of Q2, and 4200 US dollars per ounce is the first support level to be verified [61]. - **Medium - Term (3 - 6 months)**: The market will focus on economic data verification. If economic data continues to be weak, the market will trade the economic recession risk and expect the Fed to loosen monetary policy, and the allocation value of gold will significantly increase [62]. - **Long - Term (6 - 12 months)**: Gold's pricing logic has shifted to a structural bull market driven by the deep - seated transformation of the global monetary system. Global debt, central bank gold purchases, and the de - dollarization process provide long - term support for gold [64]. 3.6 Silver Market Analysis: Industrial Attributes, Relative Performance, and Q2 Outlook - **Reasons for the Silver Price Decline in Q1**: In Q1 2026, the silver market was weak, with a decline of 4.26% in the London silver spot price. Its weakness was due to the simultaneous pressure on its financial and industrial attributes. The financial attribute was suppressed by the Fed's hawkish stance, and the industrial demand expectation was weakened by the uncertain global economic outlook [67][68]. - **Q2 Silver Outlook: Following Gold to Bottom and Waiting for Industrial Demand Catalysis**: In Q2, silver will mainly follow gold to fluctuate. If the market expects the Fed to loosen policy in the middle and late Q2, the suppression of silver's financial attribute will be alleviated. The recovery of industrial demand may drive silver to have an independent upward market, but it also faces greater downward risks [69][70].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts in April 2026 [2]. - The report also analyzes the market performance of various futures on March 31, 2026, and provides short - term and long - term trend predictions for April 1, 2026, and the whole month of April 2026 [13][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Information and Trading Tips - The US, Iran, and other countries have expressed their stances on the end of the war. The US is seeking an agreement to end the war, and Iran is willing to end the war under certain conditions [5]. - China's Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi and Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Dar held talks and put forward five initiatives on the situation in the Gulf and the Middle East [6]. - The central bank's monetary policy committee proposed to use various policy tools to strengthen monetary policy regulation and maintain the stable operation of the financial market [7]. - China's economic sentiment has rebounded, with the manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indices all returning to the expansion range [7]. - The total operating income of state - owned enterprises from January to February increased slightly year - on - year, while the total profit decreased. The asset - liability ratio increased [7]. - A number of national new regulations will be implemented from April [8]. - The Iran war may cause significant losses to the GDP of Arab countries, increase unemployment, and push more people into poverty. High - end estimates show that the GDP of some countries may shrink [8]. - The US may make a decision on NATO's future after the end of the military operation against Iran [8]. - Some Gulf countries hope that the US will continue the war against Iran, and Iran has warned against a possible US ground war [9]. - The US and Israel launched an attack on an Iranian steel plant [9]. - The Kansas Fed President warned about the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation [9]. - A US federal judge ruled that the Trump administration's termination of the legal status of hundreds of thousands of immigrants was illegal and required the restoration of their status [9]. - NASA announced the countdown to the launch of the "Artemis 2" mission [10]. - The US consumer confidence index rose in March, and inflation expectations increased [10]. - The eurozone's CPI increased in March, and the European Central Bank may raise interest rates in April [10] 2. Commodity Futures - related Information - On March 31, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 3.12% and COMEX silver futures up 6.77% [10]. - On March 31, US oil and Brent oil futures fell. The increase in US API crude oil inventories led to concerns about oversupply [11]. - The average price of regular gasoline in the US reached a nearly 4 - year high [12]. - On March 31, most London base metals rose [12]. - On March 31, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised [12]. - On March 31, the US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [13] 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.1 Stock Index Futures - On March 31, the main contracts of stock index futures such as IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, and IM2606 generally showed a downward trend. They faced resistance when rebounding and had increased downward pressure in the short term [13][14][15]. - In April 2026, these contracts are expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend, with specific support and resistance levels provided [18]. - On April 1, 2026, stock index futures are expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend, with corresponding support and resistance levels [18] 3.2 Precious Metal Futures - **Gold Futures**: On March 31, the main contract AU2606 showed a slightly strong - oscillating trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a wide - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [30]. - **Silver Futures**: On March 31, the main contract AG2606 showed a strong - oscillating upward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a wide - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [38] 3.3 Base Metal Futures - **Copper Futures**: On March 31, the main contract CU2605 showed a slightly weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [42]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On March 31, the main contract AL2605 showed an oscillating upward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - wide - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [48]. - **Alumina Futures**: On March 31, the main contract AO2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, both AO2605 and AO2609 are expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [55]. - **Carbonate Lithium Futures**: On March 31, the main contract LC2605 showed a significant downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a weak - wide - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a wide - oscillating trend [56] 3.4 Building Material Futures - **Rebar Futures**: On March 31, the main contract RB2605 showed a slightly downward trend. In April 2026, both RB2605 and RB2610 are expected to be in a strong - wide - oscillating trend [63]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: On March 31, the main contract I2605 showed a downward trend. In April 2026, both I2605 and I2609 are expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, I2605 is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [65][66]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: On March 31, the main contract JM2605 showed a significant downward trend. In April 2026, both JM2605 and JM2609 are expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [72]. - **Glass Futures**: On March 31, the main contract FG605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, both FG605 and FG609 are expected to be in a weak - wide - oscillating trend [76]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On March 31, the main contract SA605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, both SA605 and SA609 are expected to be in a weak - wide - oscillating trend [80] 3.5 Energy Futures - **Crude Oil Futures**: On March 31, the main contract SC2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend and may reach a new high. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [85]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: On March 31, the main contract FU2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend and may reach a new high [89]. - **Asphalt Futures**: On March 31, the main contract BU2606 showed a slightly weak - oscillating trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [91] 3.6 Chemical Futures - **Linear Low - Density Polyethylene Futures**: On March 31, the main contract L2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [93]. - **Polypropylene Futures**: On March 31, the main contract PP2605 showed a downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [98][99]. - **Styrene Futures**: On March 31, the main contract EB2605 showed a downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend and may reach a new high. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [104]. - **PTA Futures**: On March 31, the main contract TA605 showed a downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [109]. - **PVC Futures**: On March 31, the main contract V2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a wide - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a wide - oscillating trend [114]. - **Methanol Futures**: On March 31, the main contract MA605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. In April 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [119][120]. - **Ethylene Glycol Futures**: On March 31, the main contract EG2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a weak - oscillating trend [125]. - **Butadiene Futures**: On March 31, the main contract BR2605 showed a weak - oscillating downward trend. On April 1, 2026, it is expected to be in a strong - oscillating trend [128]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts in March 2026 and on March 31, 2026. Index futures are expected to be weakly volatile, while lithium carbonate, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polypropylene, styrene, and ethylene glycol futures are expected to be strongly volatile [1][2]. - The report also analyzes the impact of macro - news and market conditions on the futures market, such as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, Fed's interest - rate policies, and domestic and international economic policies [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - On March 30, 2026, the A - share market bottomed out and rebounded, with the non - ferrous metal sector surging and power stocks slumping. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.81%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index hit a new low since early April last year [14]. - The U.S. three major stock indexes closed mixed on March 30, 2026. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.11%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.39%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.73%. European three major stock indexes closed up across the board [15]. 3.2 Macro - news - The G7 energy ministers, finance ministers, and central bank governors held a meeting to assess the impact of the Middle East situation on the energy market, global economy, and financial stability, and were prepared to take coordinated actions if necessary [9]. - The U.S. and Iran's negotiation progress was volatile, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and policy uncertainties increased, which affected the market sentiment [15]. 3.3 Futures Contracts Analysis 3.3.1 Index Futures - On March 30, 2026, the four major index futures contracts (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) generally showed a weakly volatile trend. In March 2026, they are expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, they are likely to continue this trend [11][12][13][15][16]. 3.3.2 Precious Metal Futures - Gold futures: On March 30, 2026, the gold futures main contract AU2606 oscillated upward. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [30]. - Silver futures: On March 30, 2026, the silver futures main contract AG2606 oscillated upward. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [38]. 3.3.3 Base Metal Futures - Copper futures: On March 30, 2026, the copper futures main contract CU2605 was weakly volatile. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be weakly volatile [42]. - Aluminum futures: On March 30, 2026, the aluminum futures main contract AL2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [46]. - Tin futures: On March 30, 2026, the tin futures main contract SN2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to oscillate and consolidate [51]. 3.3.4 Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude oil futures: On March 30, 2026, the crude oil futures main contract SC2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to be strongly volatile and may hit a new high since listing, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [85]. - Fuel oil futures: On March 30, 2026, the fuel oil futures main contract FU2605 oscillated upward strongly. In March 2026, it is expected to be strongly volatile and may hit a new high since listing, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [90]. - Asphalt futures: On March 30, 2026, the asphalt futures main contract BU2606 was weakly volatile. In March 2026, it is expected to be strongly volatile, and on March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [94]. - Polypropylene, linear low - density polyethylene, PTA, PVC, methanol, ethylene glycol, etc.: These futures contracts have different trends on March 30, 2026, and are generally expected to be strongly volatile in March 2026 and have corresponding trends on March 31, 2026 [99][103][112][117][121][126]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Futures - Palm oil futures: On March 30, 2026, the palm oil futures main contract P2605 oscillated upward. On March 31, 2026, it is likely to be strongly volatile [130].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak rebound. The main contract of Shanghai Gold rose 1.46%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver rose 3.41%, the main contract of platinum rose 0.16%, and the main contract of palladium rose 0.89% [1]. - In the short - term, regarding the risk of safe - haven, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain deadlocked; the US employment is strong, inflationary pressure persists, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump issued a new warning; Iran said the US peace proposal was "unrealistic". The Houthi armed forces "joined the war", more US troops arrived in the Middle East, the risk of the Iran war expanding increased, and the Middle East crisis may become long - term [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, Powell said that the Fed could "wait and see" how the war affects inflation and there was no need to take action for the time being. The US import prices in February had the largest increase in four years, suggesting that future inflation may accelerate. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged this month, stating that the Iran war made the policy outlook highly uncertain, expecting inflation to rise, the unemployment rate to remain stable, and to cut interest rates once this year. The probability of interest rate hikes reversed, and the bet on interest rate cuts was postponed to 2027. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields were under pressure at high levels [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index fluctuated weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Gold - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the Comex gold active contract was $4540.40 per ounce, up 0.42% from the previous day and 2.95% from the previous week. The London gold price was $4529.15 per ounce, up 0.56% from the previous day and 1.41% from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1020.10 yuan per gram, up 0.51% from the previous day and 4.11% from the previous week. The closing price of the Gold T + D was 1015.68 yuan per gram, up 0.67% from the previous day and 3.85% from the previous week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of Comex gold was 403,925 lots, down 2.42% from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 180,433 lots, down 0.29% from the previous day but up 12.83% from the previous week. The position of Gold TD was 45,964 lots, down 2.40% from the previous day and 2.91% from the previous week. The LBMA inventory was 9,210 tons, up 0.56% from the previous week. The Comex gold inventory was 1,000 tons, down 1.58% from the previous week. The Shanghai Gold inventory was 107 tons, up 1.82% from the previous day and 1.35% from the previous week [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 long - position holders in the Shanghai Gold futures of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are led by Guotai Junan, and the top 10 short - position holders are led by Yunchang Futures [3]. 3.2 Silver - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the Comex silver active contract was $70.18 per ounce, up 0.59% from the previous day and 1.24% from the previous week. The London silver price was $70.75 per ounce, up 4.36% from the previous day and 5.24% from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 18,126 yuan per kilogram, up 2.37% from the previous day and 6.09% from the previous week. The closing price of the Silver T + D was 18,031 yuan per kilogram, up 2.68% from the previous day and 5.04% from the previous week [4]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of Comex silver was 113,164 lots, down 1.39% from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 3,615,825 lots, up 3.07% from the previous day and 13.90% from the previous week. The position of Silver TD was 2,818,488 lots, down 0.76% from the previous day and 3.21% from the previous week. The LBMA inventory was 27,065 tons, down 2.39% from the previous week. The Comex silver inventory was 10,188 tons, down 1.36% from the previous week. The Shanghai Silver inventory was 369 tons, up 0.75% from the previous week. The total visible inventory was 37,916 tons, down 0.37% from the previous week [4]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 long - position holders in the Shanghai Silver futures of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are led by Guotou Futures, and the top 10 short - position holders are led by Chezheng Futures [5]. 3.3 Platinum - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract was $2,113.20 per ounce, up 4.38% from the previous day but down 3.47% from the previous week. The London platinum price was $2,118.00 per ounce, up 1.97% from the previous day but down 0.66% from the previous week. The closing price of the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 552.70 yuan per gram, up 3.73% from the previous day but down 1.75% from the previous week. The closing price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 548.93 yuan per gram, up 3.84% from the previous day but down 1.82% from the previous week [7]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract was 34,868 lots, down 6.76% from the previous day and 5.91% from the previous week. The total NYMEX platinum inventory was 19 tons, unchanged from the previous week [7]. 3.4 Palladium - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are recommended. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [8]. - **Prices**: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract was $1,620.50 per ounce, up 3.81% from the previous day but down 5.37% from the previous week. The London palladium price was $1,601.00 per ounce, down 3.04% from the previous day and 2.97% from the previous week. The closing price of the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 407.75 yuan per gram, up 2.31% from the previous day but down 3.73% from the previous week [8]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract was 14,847 lots, up 0.89% from the previous day and 0.53% from the previous week. The total NYMEX palladium inventory was 8 tons, up 22.15% from the previous day and 19.79% from the previous week [8]. 3.5 Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **Monetary Attributes**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 3.75%, the discount rate was 3.75%, the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) was 3.65%, and the Fed's total assets were $6,708.36 billion. M2 increased by 4.88% year - on - year. The ten - year US Treasury real yield was 2.64%, the US dollar index was 100.51, and the US Treasury yield spreads and interest rate differentials between the US and other countries showed certain changes [9]. - **US Inflation**: The year - on - year CPI was 2.40%, the month - on - month CPI was 0.50%, the year - on - year core CPI was 2.50%, the month - on - month core CPI was 0.40%, the year - on - year PCE price index was 2.83%, the year - on - year core PCE price index was 3.06%, the one - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan was 3.80%, and the five - year inflation expectation was 3.20% [9]. - **US Economic Growth**: The annualized year - on - year GDP growth rate was 2.10%, the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate was 0.70%, the unemployment rate was 4.40%, the monthly change in non - farm payrolls was - 92,000, the labor participation rate was 61.90%, the average hourly wage growth rate was 3.80%, and other labor market and economic indicators showed corresponding changes [9]. - **US Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index was 38.00, existing home sales were 4.09 million units, new home sales were 480,000 units, and new home starts were 1.043 million units [9]. - **US Consumption and Industry**: Retail sales increased by 2.08% year - on - year and 0.03% month - on - month, personal consumption expenditure increased by 5.25% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month, the personal savings rate was 4.50%, the industrial production index increased by 1.44% year - on - year and 0.15% month - on - month, and other consumption and industrial indicators showed corresponding changes [11]. - **US Trade**: Exports increased by 9.68% year - on - year but decreased by 17.23% month - on - month, imports decreased by 26.33% year - on - year but increased by 2.30% month - on - month, and the trade deficit was - $54.5 billion [11]. - **US Economic Surveys**: The ISM manufacturing PMI index was 52.40, the ISM services PMI index was 56.10, the Markit manufacturing PMI index was 52.40, the Markit services PMI index was 51.10, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index was 53.30, the small business optimism index was 98.80, and the US investor confidence index was 7.20 [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's gold reserves were 2,308.50 tons, the US's were 8,133.46 tons, and the world's total was 36,458.24 tons [11]. - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: The US dollar accounted for 56.32% of foreign exchange reserves, the euro accounted for 21.13%, and the RMB accounted for 2.12% [11]. - **Gold to Foreign Exchange Reserves Ratio**: China's ratio was 8.34%, and the US's was 81.98% [11]. - **Safe - Haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index was 181.40, the VIX index was 30.61, the CRB commodity index was 371.29, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9215 [11]. 3.6 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from April 29, 2026, to December 8, 2027, is provided, showing the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate decisions [13].

Group 1 - Oil prices continue to rise, while gold and silver prices decline. Brent crude oil increased by 0.3% to $112.6 per barrel, COMEX gold fell by 1.8% to $4,492.0 per ounce, and COMEX silver dropped by 2.8% to $67.6 per ounce [1][47][54] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 2.1%, with most sectors experiencing declines. Communication services, information technology, and financials fell by 7.2%, 3.5%, and 2.1% respectively, while energy, materials, and utilities rose by 6.2%, 4.2%, and 2.9% [2][9] - Emerging market indices showed mixed results, with the South Korean Composite Index down by 5.9% and the Istanbul Stock Exchange National 30 Index down by 2.6% [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $837.4 billion as of March 25, 2026, with net issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds falling to $5.16 billion [65][71] - The cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. in 2026 reached $516 billion, lower than the $553.6 billion recorded in the same period last year. Total expenditures were $1,923.5 billion, compared to $1,835.6 billion last year [71][72] - The market anticipates a 72.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in 2026, a significant increase from the previous week's 64% [101][106] Group 3 - Japan's February CPI year-on-year growth was 1.3%, down from 1.5%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.6%. Excluding policy factors, the core CPI was 1.7%, indicating stable core inflation trends [110] - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21 were 210,000, aligning with market expectations, while continuing claims were 1.819 million, lower than the anticipated 1.848 million [116][118]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - With Trump's remarks, market risk sentiment has slightly eased and the liquidity shock has slightly reversed. Gold prices are expected to be mainly in a volatile pattern in the near term, but there is still upward room in the medium to long term. The Au2606 contract may fluctuate between 960 yuan/gram and 1060 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also showing signs of stabilization and are expected to maintain a volatile pattern. The Ag2606 contract may fluctuate between 17100 yuan/kilogram and 18100 yuan/kilogram [8][9] Market Analysis - Geopolitically, Trump said Iran has agreed to "most of the content" in the ceasefire plan. The US is in serious consultations with Iran to end military operations. Trump threatened to destroy Iran's power plants, oil wells, etc. if no agreement is reached. Iran said it would cause a power outage in the region if its power facilities are attacked. Iran's foreign ministry said it has not had direct negotiations with the US and the so - called "15 - point ceasefire plan" is "excessive and unreasonable" [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On March 30, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 993.46 yuan/gram, closed at 1014.88 yuan/gram, a 1.62% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1023.80 yuan/gram and closed at 1011.48 yuan/gram, a 0.33% drop from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 17080.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 17707.00 yuan/kilogram, a 1.25% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1060304 lots and the open interest was 233885 lots. In the night session, it opened at 17949 yuan/kilogram and closed at 17679 yuan/kilogram, a 0.16% drop from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 30, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.352%, a +0.40BP change from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.526%, a +0.81BP change from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On March 30, 2026, in the Au2606 contract, the long position changed by 9544 lots and the short position changed by 3787 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 505475 lots, a 0.32% change from the previous trading day. In the Ag2606 contract, the long position changed by 2123 lots and the short position changed by 8930 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1592496 lots, an 8.38% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,049.56 tons, a decrease of 3.14 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,288 tons, a decrease of 121 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On March 30, 2026, the domestic gold premium was - 6.70 yuan/gram and the domestic silver premium was - 37.09 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 57.32, a 0.17% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 65.34, a - 1.04% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On March 30, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 91148 kilograms, a - 4.67% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 294236 kilograms, a - 31.79% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]