哈喽大家好，今天我们来讨论印尼在与美国的贸易博弈中，为什么敢硬刚美国，拒绝接受毒丸条款，让 特朗普政府的关税政策完全失效的原因。最近，美国官员公开表示，印尼与美国之间的互惠贸易协定几 乎破裂，特朗普政府指责印尼没有遵守7月的协议承诺，而印尼则回应称无法履行协议，要求重新谈 判。印尼为何敢公开挑战美国的霸权？为什么特朗普政府的关税威胁在印尼面前彻底失灵？ 这场贸易博弈的核心冲突，始于美国强行将毒丸条款加入到协议中。该条款允许美国在印尼与其他被美 国认为损害核心利益的国家签署类似的贸易协议时，单方面终止与印尼的现有协定。这样的条款在国际 贸易中极为罕见，本质上是美国为了限制中国在东南亚的影响而量身定做的陷阱。 与印尼相同的东南亚国家，像马来西亚和柬埔寨曾被迫签署包含这一条款的协议，但印尼却坚定地选择 了拒绝。印尼明确表示，维护经济主权是其拒绝接受这一不公平条款的理由。印尼不愿在中美之间被迫 选边站，也不想失去与中国的深度经贸合作。要知道，中国是印尼最大的外资来源国，尤其在镍矿开发 和基础设施建设等领域的投资超过350亿美元，印尼的镍矿产量占全球的50%以上，深度依赖中国的产 业链和市场需求。 如果印尼接受毒丸条款 ...

Core Points - The Aluminum Association, representing over 120 companies and 70% of North America's aluminum producers, emphasizes the importance of aluminum in various industries and its role in the U.S. manufacturing sector [2] - The association highlights the significant job creation in the aluminum industry, directly employing over 164,000 Americans and supporting an additional 500,000 jobs through the supply chain [2] - The association's president, Charles Johnson, will present at a congressional hearing to discuss the impact of the USMCA agreement on the aluminum industry and the need for further actions to combat subsidized aluminum imports from China [3][4] Industry Challenges - Chinese subsidized aluminum continues to flood North America, particularly through Mexico, undermining the achievements of the U.S. aluminum industry [3] - Exports of Chinese aluminum to Mexico and Canada have surged by over 300% since 2017, with specific increases of over 470% to Mexico and nearly 90% to Canada, equivalent to the capacity of a large U.S. rolling mill [3] - Without intervention, the U.S. risks becoming merely an "assembly base," which could have severe implications for the labor market, community development, and national security [3] Recommendations for Policy Action - The Aluminum Association suggests that Mexico should implement a comprehensive aluminum import monitoring system to track the origin of all aluminum products, fulfilling a commitment made in 2019 [3] - It calls for unified tariff standards among the three countries to close loopholes that allow subsidized aluminum from non-market economies to enter duty-free [3] - Strengthening origin rules is recommended, ensuring that products containing aluminum from China and other non-market economies do not benefit from trade agreement advantages [3][4] Additional Measures - The association advocates for the free flow of scrap aluminum within North America while preventing its diversion to non-market economies like China, as scrap is crucial for new capacity [4] - It urges the government to utilize Section 232 authority to address unfair trade practices related to downstream products containing subsidized aluminum [4] - The overarching goal is to ensure that the renewed and strengthened USMCA creates a fair competitive environment for manufacturers and workers in North America [4]