Group 1 - The EU is preparing to sign a temporary "framework" agreement with the US, setting the tariff rate at 10%, which is equal to the baseline tariff imposed on the UK [1] - The US has proposed a draft agreement that offers limited tariff exemptions only for specific sectors like aircraft and spirits, while key industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals receive no exemptions [2] - The EU is expected to face challenges in negotiations, as it is unlikely to achieve the same tariff reductions as the UK, particularly in steel and automotive sectors [2][3] Group 2 - The EU's negotiation strategy has faced criticism from businesses and some European countries, with calls for a quicker agreement [3] - In contrast, the UK has successfully negotiated a trade agreement with the US, reducing tariffs on automotive imports and securing zero tariffs on steel and aluminum products [4] - The UK’s approach has been characterized as a straightforward business transaction, allowing for flexibility and understanding of US objectives [4]

美国驻加拿大大使表示，尽管美加两国此前因关税问题陷入贸易摩擦，但目前两国贸易谈判前景乐观， 相信公平协议很快就能达成。 7月4日据媒体报道，美国驻加拿大大使Pete Hoekstra在渥太华独立日庆祝活动上发表讲话称，特朗普总 统和加拿大总理卡尼正在为各自国家进行谈判。他相信谈判结束后，双方领导人都能向各自民众表示为 本国争取到了有利协议。Hoekstra强调： 这意味着我们将实现真正的双赢。 此前据新华社报道，美加贸易谈判被特朗普叫停后，加拿大宣布取消数字服务税，以期在7月21日前达 成贸易协议。而这位来自密歇根州的前美国众议院议员在活动上表示： 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 目前美国对加拿大钢铁、铝制品以及汽车征收高达50%的进口关税，而密歇根州经济高度依赖与加拿大 的贸易往来。 分析认为，如能在截止日期前达成协议，将有助于缓解两国贸易紧张局势，并为双边经贸关系注入新的 稳定因素。 我们会渡过难关的。当我们渡过难关时，我们会比刚开始时更加 ...

关税战卷土重来，特朗普向全球发起勒索，而这次，除了中国，恐怕其他国家都有的难受了。 最新关税消息已经公布，据央视报道，特朗普在"空军一号"专机上表示，90天对等关税宽限期将在本月 9日到期，而美国将不打算继续延长该期限，到时候，就"祝贺"各国在与美国贸易合作时，支付 10%-50%的关税了。 不仅如此，特朗普还发函给包括盟友在内的所有国家，除非谈判成果落地，否则将迎接美国的贸易惩罚 措施。 （欧盟率先对美国妥协，不仅豁免部分美国商品关税，还同意特朗普提出的10%关税条件） 据悉，特朗普的这番"提醒"，已经让很多国家陷入焦虑。 欧盟第一时间"表忠心"，不仅同意美国提出的加征10%关税条件，还直接下令豁免美国部分商品，以求 美国可以象征性在某些领域降低关税，比如汽车、钢铁、铝制品、半导体、商用飞机等。 一位名叫塞夫科维奇的官员透露，欧盟已经收到美国发出的首份协议草案，这无疑是个好信号。 不难看出，在部分国家看来，主动让步是与美国谈判的最好底牌。尤其是综合国力较弱的国家，他们能 打的牌并不多，这就导致在后续谈判过程中，美国很可能狮子大开口。 （中国提前布局，与多个国家构建合作关系，摆脱对美国的依赖） 我们知道，特朗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ambitious 90-day trade negotiation plan of the Trump administration is facing significant challenges, particularly with Japan, where negotiations have stalled over auto tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: US-Japan Trade Negotiations - After weeks of negotiations, the US and Japan have severe disagreements on auto tariffs, with Japan refusing to accept any agreement that retains the 25% tariff imposed by Trump [1][2]. - Trump indicated that he might unilaterally impose tariffs on Japanese imports, suggesting potential rates of "30% or 35% or any number we determine" [1]. - The Japanese government is under political pressure, especially with the upcoming Senate elections on July 20, making it difficult for them to concede on tariff issues [2]. Group 2: Broader Trade Negotiations - The US is also facing difficulties in trade negotiations with other major partners, including Canada and South Korea, with stalled talks following the US's unexpected increase in steel tariffs on Canada [2][3]. - Negotiations with Canada were briefly interrupted but resumed after Canada canceled its digital services tax plan, aiming for an agreement by July 21 [3]. - The complexity of negotiations with South Korea is heightened by issues surrounding digital trade regulations, which have caused dissatisfaction among US trade representatives [3]. Group 3: Expectations and Challenges - Despite the White House's claims of working tirelessly to renegotiate trade agreements, there is acknowledgment from Republican senators that reaching actual agreements may take longer than anticipated [4].

智通财经APP获悉，欧盟外交官表示，在7月9日截止日期前与美国达成的任何贸易协议中，欧盟都要求 关键行业立即获得关税减免。但即便在最乐观情况下，欧盟预计协议仍将存在一定程度的不对等。 负责协调欧盟贸易政策的欧盟委员会本周在华盛顿重点推进三大核心诉求，尽管其已接受美国10%的基 准关税作为不可回避的底线。 第三大核心诉求是，欧盟要求初始协议达成后立即实施关税减免，而非等待最终协议签署。消息人士 称，多个欧盟成员国明确表示缺乏此项条款的协议将不可接受。欧盟贸易事务主席Maros Sefcovic与欧 委会主席内阁主任Bjoern Seibert将于本周晚些时候赴华盛顿作最后冲刺。 为与全球贸易伙伴达成协议，特朗普已将加税期限暂缓至7月9日。他警告称未达成协议的国家将面临商 品关税从10%基准线最高飙升至50%的惩罚。对欧盟的惩罚性税率虽然暂定为20%，但特朗普曾威胁对 所有欧盟进口商品征收50%关税。 了解谈判内情的欧盟外交官透露，双方正致力于达成原则性协议，具体细节有待后续敲定。上周美国政 府提交的简短谈判文件中，特朗普政府仅单方面列出对欧诉求，未作出任何让步承诺。 截止期限前一周，欧盟委员会向27个成员国通报 ...

Core Points - The EU is willing to accept a 10% general tariff proposed by the Trump administration but seeks exemptions for key industries [2][5] - Canada has decided to abandon its digital services tax to facilitate trade negotiations with the U.S. [9][10] Group 1: EU's Trade Negotiations - The EU is negotiating a trade agreement with the U.S. that includes a 10% general tariff on many goods exported to the U.S. while requesting lower tariffs in critical sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft [2][4] - The EU is pushing for quotas and exemptions to reduce the 25% tariff on automobiles and parts, as well as the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum [2][5] - The EU estimates that U.S. tariffs currently cover products worth €380 billion, accounting for about 70% of the EU's total exports to the U.S. [5] Group 2: Canada’s Trade Position - Canada has canceled its digital services tax, which was set to take effect in 2024, to advance trade talks with the U.S. [9][10] - The digital services tax would have impacted major U.S. tech companies, including Amazon and Google, by imposing a tax on their digital service revenues in Canada [9][10] Group 3: Potential Outcomes of Negotiations - The EU has outlined four possible scenarios before the July 9 deadline: reaching an acceptable asymmetric agreement, the U.S. proposing an unbalanced agreement, extending the deadline for negotiations, or Trump exiting negotiations and increasing tariffs [8] - The EU is aiming for a "fair" tariff agreement that provides more predictability for businesses [6]

Core Viewpoint - China is taking necessary measures to firmly protect the legitimate rights and interests of its enterprises in response to Canada's imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum products, which China claims violate WTO rules [1][4]. Group 1: Dispute Resolution and Tariff Measures - The WTO's Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) has agreed to establish a dispute resolution panel regarding China's complaint about Canada's additional tariffs on electric vehicles and steel/aluminum products [1][2]. - Canada will impose a 100% additional tariff on all imported electric vehicles from China starting October 1, 2024, and a 25% additional tariff on steel and aluminum products from China starting October 22, 2024 [1][2]. - The trade value affected by the 100% tariff on electric vehicles is approximately $1.7 billion, while the tariffs on steel and aluminum products involve $950 million and $720 million, respectively [4]. Group 2: China's Response and Negotiation Stance - China has formally requested consultations and further negotiations regarding the additional tariffs, asserting that these measures are inconsistent with multiple provisions of the GATT [2][3]. - Despite the establishment of a dispute resolution panel, China remains open to constructive dialogue with Canada to amicably resolve the dispute [4][7]. - China's ambassador to Canada emphasized the potential for cooperation in the electric vehicle sector, which could benefit consumers and help Canada achieve its climate goals [4][5]. Group 3: Countermeasures and Additional Disputes - In response to Canada's tariffs, China has initiated an anti-discrimination investigation and announced countermeasures, including additional tariffs on certain Canadian agricultural and seafood products [6][7]. - The countermeasures include a 100% tariff on canola oil, oilseed meal, and peas, as well as a 25% tariff on specific seafood and pork products, effective March 20, 2025 [6].

一、本周主要事件 1.当地时间6月16日，美国白宫发表声明称，特朗普与英国首相斯塔默共同宣布了贸易协议的一般条款。据悉在一般条款中，美国计划为英 国汽车进口设定每年10万辆的配额，征收关税税率为10%。英国承诺，努力满足美国对输美钢铝产品供应链安全以及相关生产设施所有权性 质的要求。在英国满足这些要求的前提下，美国计划迅速对英国生产的钢铝制品以及某些衍生钢铝制品设定"最惠国"税率配额。 2.当地时间6月17日，日本央行结束为期两天的货币政策会议，决定继续将政策利率维持在0.5%左右不变。与此同时，日本央行还决定放缓 削减购债的步伐。该央行自2024年夏季开始缩减国债购买规模，目前每季度减少4000亿日元左右。 3.当地时间6月18日，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这是美联储货币政策会议连续第四次决定维持利 率不变。同时，美联储发布的经济预测显示，美联储官员对美国今明两年的经济增长预期均作出下调。其中，今年经济增速预测中值从此 前的1.7%降至1.4%。 4.当地时间6月18日，英国央行议息会议决定，维持关键利率在4.25%不变。英国央行在声明中表示，英国实际GDP增长依 ...

智通财经APP获悉，韩国最新贸易数据显示经济韧性初现，在7月初美国全面加征关税最后期限临近之 际，韩国政府正加紧与美国展开谈判。 周一公布的海关数据显示，韩国6月前20天出口额同比增长8.3%，较5月全月1.3%的降幅显著改善。同 期进口增长5.3%，实现26.2亿美元贸易顺差。 补充预算将通过削减支出和增发债务组合筹资，预计将使政府债务与GDP之比升至49%。政策制定者正 试图在经济支持与财政可持续性间寻求平衡，同时应对日益紧张的贸易局势。 韩国央行已将基准利率下调至2.5%，并将全年增长预期降至0.8%，警告称若下半年形势需要可能进一 步放宽政策。 随着新政府上台和财政工具陆续启用，市场关注焦点集中于出口动能能否持续复苏，以及能否在关税宽 限期结束前实现对美谈判突破。 美国贸易政策仍存变数。根据既定计划，特朗普政府对韩国商品征收的10%全面关税将于7月9日上调至 25%。本月刚刚就任的韩国总统李在明尚未在谈判中取得实质性突破。原定上周在加拿大G7峰会期间 与特朗普的会晤在最后一刻取消。 若关税上调生效，韩国将成为美国盟友中遭受最严厉贸易惩罚的国家之一。此外，针对汽车、钢铁和铝 制品的行业性关税将进一步冲击 ...

欧盟与美国的关税谈判传来最新消息。 Claus表示，欧盟委员会希望先在"10%的对等关税"这个问题上谈妥，再继续谈其他的行业性关税问题。 美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克此前表示，欧盟可能会是最后达成协议的经济体之一。 英国《金融时报》报道称，欧盟内部的分歧正在削弱其谈判地位。以法国为首的一些国家希望对美国进行报 复，但包括意大利和匈牙利在内的其他国家更愿意继续谈判。 据最新报道，欧盟正试图与美国达成一份类似英美之间的贸易协议，即便无法在7月9日最后期限前就所有关税 问题达成共识，也希望先解决部分争议，避免立即启动对美国的关税报复措施。 市场层面，因节假日，美股6月19日休市。欧洲多国股市全线下跌，截至19日收盘，德国DAX30指数、法国 CAC40指数、意大利富时MIB指数、西班牙IBEX35指数、欧洲斯托克50指数均跌超1%，英国富时100指数跌 0.58%。美股三大股指期货亦集体下挫，纳斯达克100指数期货跌超1%，标普500指数期货跌0.94%，道指期货 跌0.93%。 针对全球贸易局势的不确定性，联合国在最新发布的报告中警告称，由于关税政策的不确定性以及地缘政治紧 张局势加剧，全球各地企业的海外投资面临 ...