Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [4] Group 2: Black Variety Strategy Recommendations RB2601 - Latest Price: 3034 - Strategy Direction: Oscillate Strongly - Dominant Factors: New environmental protection and production restriction draft released, steel mills' production reduction rhythm accelerating, large demand decline, slowdown in social inventory destocking, iron ore price decline, continued strength of coking coal prices, favorable industrial policies, positive macro - economic expectations, temporary suspension of trade war disturbances, and medium - long - term anti - involution [6] HC2601 - Latest Price: 3245 - Strategy Direction: Oscillate Weakly - Dominant Factors: Decline in both production and apparent demand of five major steel products, continuous decline in daily average hot metal output for 6 weeks with an enlarged decline recently, continuous narrowing of steel mills' profits suppressing production enthusiasm and affecting raw material demand, and steel mills maintaining on - demand restocking [6] I2601 - Latest Price: 760.5 - Strategy Direction: Oscillate Weakly - Dominant Factors: Similar to HC2601 [6] Group 3: Unilateral Logic Basis RB2601 and HC2601 - Message: On October 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a new draft of the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry", with stricter requirements on replacement ratios than the 2021 version. Also, it proposed restrictions on capacity replacement between different enterprises in the future [7] - Fundamentals: Steel mills' production reduction rhythm is accelerating, but due to large demand decline, social inventory destocking slows down. Iron ore prices have fallen since late October, while coking coal prices remain strong, and steel costs are still resilient. Steel futures are expected to have limited downside space, and may rebound in mid - to - late November [7][8] I2601 - Supply: Australian and Brazilian shipments have declined, and arrivals have rebounded after two weeks of low levels. Near - term arrivals are expected to be high, and the first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea in November may suppress far - month contracts. - Demand: Daily average hot metal output has continuously declined, and steel production and demand have decreased. Steel mills are restocking on - demand, and port inventory is accumulating [9] Group 4: Steel Analysis Fundamentals - Price: Some prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets declined in the week of November 7 [11] - Production: Blast furnace capacity utilization rate and crude steel output of key enterprises, daily average hot metal output, and production of five major steel products all decreased. Steel mills' inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased [12][15] - Inventory: Rebar social inventory in 35 cities decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, while hot - rolled coil social inventory in 33 cities increased [18] - Demand: Real estate investment decreased year - on - year, while automobile, metal - cutting machine tool, and shipbuilding production increased year - on - year [18] - Apparent Consumption and Profit: Apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils declined, and rebar contract's disk profit showed an expanding loss [21] - Spot Gross Margin: Spot gross margin of long - process and short - process steel mills' rebar showed expanding losses [25] Conclusions and Recommendations - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: Downside space is limited. Consider buying hedging or investment in large basis intervals, or arbitrage strategies. Pay attention to spot market resilience and production data [25][28] - Basis: Rebar basis is expected to oscillate between 120 - 180 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil basis is expected to oscillate between 0 - 40 yuan/ton [29][31] Group 5: Iron Ore Analysis Fundamentals - Price and Spread: 62% Platts iron ore index and Qingdao Port 61.5% PB powder price decreased. Spreads between some high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder changed [32] - Inventory and Ship - unloading Volume: 45 - port iron ore inventory accumulated rapidly, daily average ship - unloading volume increased, and steel mills' imported ore inventory available days remained at 21 days [35] - Shipment and Arrival: Australian and Brazilian shipments decreased, and arrivals increased. Near - term arrivals are expected to be high [39] - Domestic Production and Capacity Utilization: Domestic iron ore production decreased year - on - year, and domestic mine capacity utilization rate decreased [47] - Port Trading Volume and Hot Metal Cost: Port trading volume increased, and the average hot metal cost of 64 sample steel mills increased [49] - Hot Metal Output, Blast Furnace Operation: Daily average hot metal output decreased, blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased, and blast furnace operation rate increased. Steel enterprises' profitability decreased [52] - Steel Production and Inventory: Production and consumption of five major steel products decreased, and total inventory decreased [54] - Transportation Cost: Major iron ore freight prices increased, and BDI and BCI indices rose [59] Conclusions and Recommendations - Iron Ore: Supply has an increasing expectation, demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak. Consider the "long rebar, short iron ore" arbitrage strategy [64][65] - Basis: The basis between Qingdao Port iron ore spot price and iron ore futures 2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 40 - 100 yuan/ton [65]