浙商证券（601878）发布研报称，预计2025年三季度，煤炭企业业绩整体业绩同比下滑收窄，环比改 善。该行表示，展望四季度，随着供暖季来临，电厂和供热公司即将补库，长协价格抬升支撑现货价 格，预计煤价10月中下旬上涨。政策方面，预计"反内卷"政策将持续推动行业自律，驱动煤炭供应收 缩，进一步支撑煤价稳步上涨。产能置换限制产能规模，预计产能可能会受产能指标的影响而减少，维 持行业"看好"评级。 煤炭股尾盘涨幅扩大，截至发稿，力量发展(01277)涨5.76%，报1.47港元；中煤能源（601898）(01898) 涨4.37%，报9.8港元；易大宗(01733)涨3.45%，报0.9港元；中国神华（601088）(01088)涨2.91%，报 38.92港元。 ...

消息面上，9月24日工信部等六部门发布《建材行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》。据智通财经 报道称，有上市公司人士对记者表示，已在落实布局产能置换事项。业内人士预计，上述方案中"2025 年底前对超出项目备案的产能制定产能置换方案"的要求，预计能减少10%的熟料产能，行业复价有望 加速到来；同时，大企业整合国内市场步伐也将加快，行业集中度将得到有效提升。 国盛证券发布研报称，水泥行业需求仍在寻底过程中，企业错峰停产力度加强，水泥价格围绕行业盈亏 平衡线附近波动，中国水泥协会发布《关于进一步推动水泥行业"反内卷""稳增长"高质量发展工作的意 见》，供给端有望积极改善，同时大型基建项目有望拉动西藏，新疆等区域性需求提升，关注成本优势 定价的龙头海螺水泥、出海标的华新水泥。 智通财经APP获悉，水泥股集体拉升，截至发稿，华新水泥(06655)涨5.1%，报15.26港元；西部水泥 (02233)涨5.1%，报3.3港元；中国建材(03323)涨3.23%，报5.44港元；海螺水泥(00914)涨1.56%，报23.48 港元。 ...

国盛证券发布研报称，水泥行业需求仍在寻底过程中，企业错峰停产力度加强，水泥价格围绕行业盈亏 平衡线附近波动，中国水泥协会发布《关于进一步推动水泥行业"反内卷""稳增长"高质量发展工作的意 见》，供给端有望积极改善，同时大型基建项目有望拉动西藏，新疆等区域性需求提升，关注成本优势 定价的龙头海螺水泥、出海标的华新水泥。 水泥股集体拉升，截至发稿，华新水泥（600801）(06655)涨5.1%，报15.26港元；西部水泥(02233)涨 5.1%，报3.3港元；中国建材(03323)涨3.23%，报5.44港元；海螺水泥（600585）(00914)涨1.56%，报 23.48港元。 消息面上，9月24日工信部等六部门发布《建材行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》。据智通财经报 道称，有上市公司人士对记者表示，已在落实布局产能置换事项。业内人士预计，上述方案中"2025年 底前对超出项目备案的产能制定产能置换方案"的要求，预计能减少10%的熟料产能，行业复价有望加 速到来；同时，大企业整合国内市场步伐也将加快，行业集中度将得到有效提升。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 钢矿周报（9.22-9.26） CONTENTS 目 录 基本面分析 1 The first chapter of the small title 2 综述及观点总结 2 The third chapter of the small title 1、原料市场状况分析 一周数据变化 | 项目 | 上期数据 | 本期数据 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PB粉价格（元/湿吨） | 799 | 785 | -14 | | 巴混粉价格（元/湿吨） | 828 | 820 | -8 | | PB粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | -14.01 | -10.71 | 3.3 | | 巴混粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | -5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "Building Materials Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to accelerate the elimination of inefficient cement production capacity, leading to a potential rebound in cement prices beyond expectations [1][4]. Industry Overview - The cement industry is currently facing a low capacity utilization rate of around 50%, attributed to declining demand in the real estate market and increased staggered production halts [1][2]. - The new policy prohibits the addition of new cement clinker capacity and requires companies to develop capacity replacement plans by the end of 2025 for any excess production [1][4]. Capacity Management - The implementation of the capacity replacement plan is expected to reduce clinker capacity by approximately 10%, which may accelerate price recovery in the industry [4][5]. - Major companies are expected to accelerate market consolidation, improving industry concentration, which currently stands at 56.5% for the top ten clinker producers [5][6]. Demand and Production Adjustments - Various regional cement associations are mandating staggered production halts, with the Sichuan Cement Association requiring each clinker production line to halt for at least 15 days per month in Q4 [2]. - The overall sentiment in the industry indicates a pessimistic outlook for Q4 demand, prompting increased production halts [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, 73 listed building materials companies reported revenues of 305.5 billion yuan, with net profits of only 11.8 billion yuan, indicating a challenging financial environment [3]. - Some leading cement companies have shifted from profit to loss, highlighting the impact of declining demand [3]. Strategic Responses - Companies are exploring cross-industry transformations to mitigate cyclical downturns, with some investing in sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy [6]. - The policy encourages leading companies to collaborate with social capital to establish green low-carbon transition funds, facilitating the exit of inefficient production capacity [5][6].

铝类产业日报 2025/9/25 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,765.00 | +60.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,942.00 | +35.00↑ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | -5.00 220,640.00 | -5.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) -674.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | -33.00 303,116.00 | -7.00↓ -15757.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, has issued the "Building Materials Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", aiming for recovery and growth in the building materials sector, with a projected revenue of over 300 billion yuan from green building materials by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Key Tasks - Strengthening industry management by prohibiting new cement clinker and flat glass production capacity, requiring capacity replacement plans for new projects, and enhancing regulatory standards for cement and flat glass [2]. - Enhancing industrial technological innovation by expanding the advanced inorganic non-metallic materials industry and improving supply capabilities in key resource sectors such as graphite and magnesium [2]. - Expanding effective investment through digital and green transformation initiatives, including the development of digital transformation solutions and the establishment of "zero" factories in the cement and flat glass industries [2]. - Expanding consumer demand by promoting green building materials in rural areas and supporting the establishment of cooperation mechanisms between upstream and downstream enterprises in the inorganic non-metallic materials sector [2]. - Deepening open cooperation by strengthening industrial collaboration with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative and promoting the internationalization of building materials products, technologies, and standards [2].

每经AI快讯，9月24日，工业和信息化部、自然资源部、生态环境部、住房城乡建设部、水利部、农业 农村部印发《建材行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》，严格水泥玻璃产能调控。严禁新增水泥熟 料、平板玻璃产能，新建改建项目须制定产能置换方案。严禁从非大气污染防治重点区域向大气污染防 治重点区域转移水泥熟料、平板玻璃产能。水泥企业要在2025年底前对超出项目备案的产能制定产能置 换方案，促进实际产能与备案产能统一。发挥质量、环保、能耗、安全等综合标准作用，依法依规淘汰 水泥、平板玻璃落后产能,推动环保绩效低的企业逐步退出。加快光伏压延玻璃产能风险预警由项目管 理向规划引导转变。鼓励骨干企业联合社会资本，探索设立绿色低碳转型基金，以市场化运作方式加快 低效产能退出。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 关注反内卷下核增产能退出风险 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 除了超产核查，煤炭"反内卷"政策工具箱还有哪些措施可以期待？我们认为，考虑到 2021 年 增产保供政策实施以来存在先放量后补齐产能置换手续的核增产能，且 2025 年底或是其兑现 产能置换承诺的截止时间，因此政策要求下，这部分产能存在退出风险，则供给边际收敛下煤 价及板块有望迎来上行催化。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 关注反内卷下核增产能退出风险 [Table_Summary2] 最新跟踪：节前冬储补库需求释 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On September 18, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,905 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.22%, and the position decreased by 621 lots to 285,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,483 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 180 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 53,205 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.49%, and the position decreased by 3,400 lots to 123,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 705 yuan/ton. There are intertwined positive factors for industrial silicon, and the market has staged a phased recovery. The conference proposed to set limits on the comprehensive energy consumption of polysilicon and eliminate backward production capacity through capacity replacement, and establish a red-yellow-green light warning system for subsequent supply-demand regulation. The overall regulatory intensity is more moderate than expected. New capacity expansion is restricted, but existing capacity indicators are not directly cancelled. In September, production continued to rise, and the inventory pressure of polysilicon remained, putting pressure on prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research View - Industrial silicon and polysilicon both fluctuated weakly on September 18. There are positive factors for industrial silicon, and the market has staged a phased recovery. The regulatory measures for polysilicon are more moderate, but the inventory pressure remains, suppressing prices [1]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures Settlement Price**: Industrial silicon's main contract increased by 55 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 30 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's main contract decreased by 285 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract decreased by 245 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Price**: Most of the spot prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon remained unchanged, with the spot discount of industrial silicon widening and that of polysilicon narrowing [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 1,400 tons. Polysilicon's warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the total social inventory remained unchanged, but the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 29,000 tons [2]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - End Price**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][13][15][16][17][18][19]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [21][22][23][24][25]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [27][28][29][31][32][33].