资产定价新范式
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长城基金杨光:资产定价新范式与多元配置新视野
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-10-17 08:17
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the asset pricing paradigm is undergoing a profound transformation, shifting from a static world based on certainty to a dynamic ecosystem based on uncertainty [1][2] - The financial market is transitioning from a Newtonian mechanical worldview to a quantum characteristic market, where asset prices exhibit both "particle" (real value based on cash flow) and "wave" (narrative value based on consensus) properties [2][3] - The new pricing paradigm emphasizes the importance of technology, new productivity, and collective consensus as key factors in asset valuation [12][16] Group 2 - The three pillars of asset pricing are changing: the curvature of pricing in time and space has been altered, the definition of value is expanding from "atomic value" to "bit value," and the traditional risk-return equation is being rewritten [2][3][10] - Investors need to transition from being "valuation accountants" to "paradigm geographers," utilizing tools beyond financial statements and discount models to include technology roadmaps and narrative networks [4][5] - Traditional valuation models like DCF and DDM are losing their explanatory power due to high uncertainty and sensitivity to assumptions, making them less applicable to high-growth or volatile companies [6][7][8] Group 3 - The classic economic cycle models, such as the Merrill Lynch Clock, have become ineffective due to structural changes in the macroeconomic environment, requiring a shift in asset allocation strategies [8][9] - The concept of "safe assets" is diminishing as traditional safe havens like government bonds face challenges from fiscal credit erosion and the politicization of monetary policy [10][11] - The definition of safety is evolving from unconditional trust in sovereign credit to seeking systemic resilience in extreme situations, with gold and cryptocurrencies emerging as new forms of value storage [10][12] Group 4 - The new asset pricing paradigm should focus on the sources of value creation in the digital economy, including technological advancements, new productivity, and collective consensus [12][13][14] - The A-share market is becoming a battleground for new productivity and valuation reassessment, moving away from traditional macroeconomic cycles towards sectors aligned with national strategic intentions [16] - The U.S. stock market is evolving into a core pricing arena for global technological innovation, with tech giants being valued not just on current cash flows but also on their potential as platform-based options for future infrastructure [16][17] Group 5 - Gold's role is shifting from a simple inflation hedge to a decentralized consensus vehicle, reflecting global capital's distrust in fiat currency systems [17] - Cryptocurrencies represent an extreme experiment in asset pricing, relying on technology architecture and global consensus rather than traditional fundamentals [18] - The asset allocation strategy must evolve from passive tracking of economic cycles to proactive identification of key sectors representing technological progress and new productivity [18][19]