Core Insights - The event "2025 Annual Financial Thinkers Summit" highlighted macro trends, consumer behavior, and investment opportunities for 2026, featuring key speakers from various financial institutions [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - The rise of emotional value in consumer products, such as the Labubu doll, illustrates a shift towards narrative economics, where consumers pay for emotional connections rather than just production costs [2][3] - Future investment opportunities may lie in products that resonate with the emotional needs of the new generation, including virtual idols and immersive experiences in the metaverse [2] - The demand for emotional storytelling in products reflects a broader trend where young consumers seek meaningful connections through their purchases [3] Group 2: Asset Value and Stability - The concept of "trust anchors" in volatile markets emphasizes the need for assets with long-term value, such as gold, which serves as a hedge against economic instability [4][5] - Gold's current market price is nearing 1,000 yuan per gram, and its value is derived from its role as a universal collateral and safe haven rather than just price appreciation [5] - Real estate's value has shifted from a financial investment tool to a focus on living quality, emphasizing location and property quality in investment decisions [6] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Three key investment strategies are proposed: investing in personal development, addressing sustainable human development challenges, and focusing on compounding assets [7][8] - Investing in personal skills and knowledge is highlighted as a high-return strategy, especially for younger individuals facing job market changes [7] - Investments in sectors that solve real-world problems, such as renewable energy and biotechnology, are seen as stable growth opportunities [8]

2025年12月23日，第一财经《云程笃行·万里可期 | 2025年度财经思想者盛典》圆满落幕。智汇 集团创始人及首席经济学家夏春、中欧陆家嘴国际金融研究院副院长刘功润、京华世家家族办公室董 事长聂俊峰、新鼎资本董事长张驰和第一财经总编辑杨宇东共同呈现了一场精彩的年度思想演说秀， 围绕宏观趋势、居民消费、年轻人理财、具身智能等热点议题展开，探寻2026年值得期待的结构性 机遇。 此为《 2025年度财经思想者盛典》中 中欧陆家嘴国际金融研究院副院长刘功润 的演讲完整版内容 大家好！我是刘功润，一位财经观察者、研究者。 今天，和大家聊聊关于投资的话题。但是，我不 想和大家谈那些让人头疼的 K线图和复杂的财务模型，而是从今年"火出圈"的投资现象说起—— 不 知道在座有多少朋友，为了一只咧着嘴、表情古灵精怪的 Labubu娃娃，拼过手速、加过代购？ 这 个小精灵，不生产粮食，不制造芯片，但却让很多人心甘情愿抢着掏钱买单。在 Labubu的拉动下， 泡泡玛特今年上半年营收达138.8亿元，超过了去年全年。 为什么潮玩 IP会受到市场追捧？它真正的价值什么？ 大家会很容易想到一个概念：情绪价值。没 错！情绪价值的本质是 ...

大家好！我是刘功润，一位财经观察者、研究者。今天，和大家聊聊关于投资的话题。但是，我不想和 大家谈那些让人头疼的K线图和复杂的财务模型，而是从今年"火出圈"的投资现象说起—— 不知道在座有多少朋友，为了一只咧着嘴、表情古灵精怪的Labubu娃娃，拼过手速、加过代购？这个 小精灵，不生产粮食，不制造芯片，但却让很多人心甘情愿抢着掏钱买单。在Labubu的拉动下，泡泡 玛特今年上半年营收达138.8亿元，超过了去年全年。 为什么潮玩IP会受到市场追捧？它真正的价值什么？大家会很容易想到一个概念：情绪价值。没错！情 绪价值的本质是叙事经济学，是一场关于"意义"的投资。在意义的叙事语境里，消费者支付的，远不止 于生产成本，而是一整套情绪价值：收集的满足、拆盲盒的惊喜、社交的谈资。一个好的故事，一种强 烈的情感联结，无形中构成了强大的交易"货币"。 消费趋势的另一面，就是投资趋势。未来的投资机会，或许就藏在那些能抓住新一代消费者的情感密码 里：可能是虚拟偶像的一场演唱会，可能是AI定制的专属数字人，也可能是一款能让你在元宇宙里和 朋友们冲浪的应用。可以预见，未来会涌现出更多虚实融合的体验式消费，以及为个人兴趣和情绪付费 ...

Group 1: Global Narrative Shifts - The "narrative inflection points" driving global capital reallocation include changes in overseas economies, AI advancements reshaping US-China dynamics, and a decrease in China's economic tail risks[4]. - The narrative power is expected to persist into 2026, with global monetary policies remaining accommodative and fiscal expansion opportunities greater in non-US countries than in the US[4]. - The "narrative inflection points" encompass three layers: the end of the "American exceptionalism," Europe's awakening, and the decline of tail risks in the Chinese economy[4]. Group 2: Economic Rebalancing in China - The main theme for China's macroeconomic strategy in 2026 is transitioning from capital reallocation to economic rebalancing, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" draft[4]. - Key shifts in ideology during the "14th Five-Year" period include prioritizing demand-side policies over supply-side policies, emphasizing consumption over investment, and focusing on "investment in people" alongside "investment in goods"[4]. - Fiscal policy is expected to enter a "rigid expansion" phase, maintaining a budget deficit ratio of 4%, with slight increases in special government bonds and local government bonds[4]. Group 3: Economic Growth Projections - The GDP target for 2026 is projected to remain around 5%, with an expected actual completion of 4.9%, indicating a flat "U-shaped" growth trajectory[4]. - Consumer subsidy policies are anticipated to increase by 100-200 billion yuan on top of the 300 billion yuan allocated in 2025 to support service consumption[4]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise moderately to 0.4%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decline by 0.9%[4]. Group 4: Industry Opportunities and Risks - From a macro perspective, technology remains a primary investment focus, but consumer investment value is also expected to emerge[5]. - Potential risks for 2026 include the ongoing US-China relationship dynamics, uncertainties in the European economy, and pressures in the domestic real estate market[5].

以下文章来源于教你挖掘基 ，作者冰姐 教你挖掘基 . 投资理财有方法，我们手把手教你挖掘牛基~ 长假期间最引人瞩目的消息，莫过于黄金价格的凌厉走势。国际金价首次站上了4000美元每盎司，这一历史性突破让全球 投资者为之震撼。 短短三年间，国际金价从每盎司1614美元攀援而上，在去年上涨27%之后，今年以来再度涨超50%，这样的斜率堪称历史 罕见。 （来源：Wind） 人们难免追问：4000美元的金价，究竟在为什么疯狂？背后藏着怎样的市场逻辑？更关键的是，面对这看似高不可攀的点 位，普通人又该如何在波动中锚定自己的资产安全感？ 这个身份的转变，才是驱动金价打破常理的核心动力，而这一切又源于当下全球正在发生的两大不可逆趋势。 第一波推力来自去美元化的浪潮。 曾经全球央行的储备资产里，美债是重要的压舱石。但如今风向变了，全球央行黄金储备30年来首次超过美债持有量，我 国央行更是连续11个月增持黄金，储备规模直接突破2300吨。 （来源：Wind） 01 狂飙的金价，到底在定价什么？ 按过去的规律，黄金属于无息资产，当美债实际利率走高时，投资者会抛售黄金转投美债。但2022年俄乌战争后，即便美 债实际利率持续高位，金 ...

随着黄金价格重拾升势，同类产品最低费率的黄金ETF华夏（518850）12月3日净流入2.03亿元，规模 突破百亿大关。 短短三年间，黄金从每盎司1614美元攀援而上，在去年上涨27%之后，今年以来再度涨超50%，这样的 斜率堪称历史罕见。 人们难免追问：4000美元的金价，究竟在为什么疯狂？背后藏着怎样的市场逻辑？更关键的是，面对这 看似高不可攀的点位，普通人又该如何在波动中锚定自己的资产安全感？ 这种反常并非偶然，背后藏着的是黄金的定价逻辑的根本性转变——它已从单纯的避险、抗通胀工具， 进化成为主权信用对冲利器。 这个身份的转变，才是驱动金价打破常理的核心动力，而这一切又源于当下全球正在发生的两大不可逆 趋势。 第一波推力来自去美元化的浪潮。 曾经全球央行的储备资产里，美债是重要的压舱石。但如今风向变了，全球央行黄金储备30年来首次超 过美债持有量，我国央行更是连续11个月增持黄金，储备规模直接突破2300吨。 01狂飙的金价，到底在定价什么？ 按过去的规律，黄金属于无息资产，当美债实际利率走高时，投资者会抛售黄金转投美债。但2022年俄 乌冲突后，即便美债实际利率持续高位，金价依旧一路狂飙。 02黄金的 ...

随着黄金价格重拾升势，同类产品最低费率的黄金ETF华夏（518850）12月3日净流入2.03亿元，规模突破百亿大关。 短短三年间，黄金从每盎司1614美元攀援而上，在去年上涨27%之后，今年以来再度涨超50%，这样的斜率堪称历史罕见。 人们难免追问：4000美元的金价，究竟在为什么疯狂？背后藏着怎样的市场逻辑？更关键的是，面对这看似高不可攀的点位，普通人又该如 何在波动中锚定自己的资产安全感？ 01狂飙的金价，到底在定价什么？ 这个身份的转变，才是驱动金价打破常理的核心动力，而这一切又源于当下全球正在发生的两大不可逆趋势。 第一波推力来自去美元化的浪潮。 曾经全球央行的储备资产里，美债是重要的压舱石。但如今风向变了，全球央行黄金储备30年来首次超过美债持有量，我国央行更是连续11 个月增持黄金，储备规模直接突破2300吨。（来源：Wind） 按过去的规律，黄金属于无息资产，当美债实际利率走高时，投资者会抛售黄金转投美债。但2022年俄乌战争后，即便美债实际利率持续高 位，金价依旧一路狂飙。 这种反常并非偶然，背后藏着的是黄金的定价逻辑的根本性转变——它已从单纯的避险、抗通胀工具，进化成为主权信用对冲利器。 ...

Group 1 - The core narrative for the global market in 2025 includes the long-term weakening of the US dollar credit, restructuring of global supply chains, gold as a new anchor for the monetary system, AI as the infrastructure for a new industrial transformation, and non-ferrous metals as the new oil [1][8][36] - Domestic assets in 2025 are driven by fundamentals such as external demand and new industries, while high-yield assets are concentrated in non-ferrous metals and AI-related sectors [1][9][10] - The existence of a "temperature difference" in the medium term indicates that new industrial investments are concentrated, with emerging sectors showing high prosperity, while traditional sectors are weak [1][10] Group 2 - In 2026, a "mirror" relationship may form, with global narratives expected to converge, leading to reduced uncertainty in the global trade environment [2][11] - The expected recovery in investment gaps during the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan may stabilize the real estate sector and improve consumption rates [2][13] - The profitability of industrial enterprises is projected to improve, with an expected increase in profit growth from approximately 3% to 6.6% [3][14] Group 3 - The transition of macroeconomic policy from "counter-cyclical" to "expanding domestic demand" is expected to enhance fundamental pricing power [3][15][16] - The combination of converging narratives and reduced temperature differences will impact asset pricing characteristics, with a shift from forward pricing to a combination of near and far pricing for commodities [4][17] - The normalization of risk preferences among residents will lead to an increase in rental yield pricing power in the real estate sector [4][18] Group 4 - The next round of narratives may include themes such as industrialization in southern countries, the second wave of globalization for Chinese enterprises, AI scenario applications, and a new quality of consumption [5][20] - The traditional investment research framework faces challenges from these narratives, necessitating an optimization of the investment research framework to incorporate narrative analysis [5][21] - Key assumptions for economic judgment in 2026 include a moderate recovery in investment gaps, improvement in consumption, stable export fundamentals, and a stabilization of real estate decline [6][22][23][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of "narrative trading" on asset pricing, emphasizing that asset pricing is influenced not only by fundamentals but also by popular narratives such as the restructuring of the dollar credit system and the new technological revolution [1][12]. Group 1: Narrative Economics - The influence of narratives on economic phenomena consists of a series of elements: a popular, easily spread story, public behavior, and an epidemiological model for macro-level dissemination [2][16]. - The concept of "herding behavior" is used to illustrate how narratives affect micro-level decision-making, with varying strengths across different phases of narrative development [2][18]. Group 2: Herding Effect in Asset Allocation - Traditional studies of herding behavior focus on individual stocks and short-term market sentiment, but the current narrative-driven environment poses challenges for asset allocation due to the breakdown of continuity in global fiscal, monetary, and trade environments [3][20]. - The article suggests that the herding effect can be quantified and applied to investment portfolio optimization and asset timing strategies [3][20]. Group 3: Measurement of Herding Effect - Four common indicators of herding behavior are identified: Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation (CSAD), the quadratic coefficient of return dispersion, standard deviation of beta coefficients, and cross-correlation [4][23]. - The CSAD index, which measures the deviation of asset returns from the average, indicates the presence of herding behavior when returns cluster around a certain average level [4][23]. Group 4: Current State of Herding Effect - The CSAD index for major asset classes shows a right-skewed distribution, indicating a tendency for extreme herding behavior, with a mean-reverting characteristic suggesting that extreme trends are difficult to maintain [5][28]. - Since May 2025, the CSAD has decreased significantly, indicating a rapid herding effect, but has started to rebound slightly, suggesting a potential shift towards more balanced asset performance [5][28]. Group 5: Strategy Integration - The article proposes integrating the herding factor into a macro risk parity framework, which has shown superior annualized returns compared to traditional models [6][34]. - The new framework suggests increasing allocations to equities and commodities while reducing bond exposure, indicating a shift in investment strategy based on herding behavior [6][34]. Group 6: Domestic Equity Market Analysis - The herding effect in the domestic equity market, as measured by the CSAD, has shown a decline in right-skewness, indicating lower dispersion compared to historical levels [7][40]. - The herding effect has gone through phases of fermentation, intensification, and now a slight loosening, suggesting a gradual return to individual rationality among investors [7][40].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses three types of contrarian investors and their approaches to investing during market bubbles, emphasizing that participating in bubbles can sometimes be a rational choice despite the inherent risks involved [4][10]. Group 1: Types of Contrarian Investors - Aggressive contrarian investors directly oppose the market by short-selling bubbles, which is a challenging strategy due to the psychological and financial pressures involved [12][17]. - Lonely contrarian investors maintain cash positions or minimal investments, facing social isolation and pressure from prevailing market sentiments, which can lead to a "spiral of silence" where they refrain from expressing their views [18][21]. - Active contrarian investors, like deep value investors, continue to invest in undervalued stocks during bubbles, often referred to as "old economy stocks," which can lead to criticism for not participating in the prevailing market trends [24][25]. Group 2: Psychological Aspects - The phenomenon of "fear of missing out" (FOMO) drives many investors to participate in bubbles, as investment returns are often tied to social status [7][10]. - The "martyr complex" can lead contrarian investors to view themselves as lone heroes fighting against the bubble, which may disconnect them from reality and hinder their decision-making [34][36]. - The article highlights the importance of maintaining an open mindset and engaging with others to alleviate the pressures faced by contrarian investors [36].