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做空动能衰减,锂电军工双线逆袭!
Jiang Nan Shi Bao· 2025-11-19 11:07
Market Overview - A-shares exhibited a weak recovery pattern characterized by "low opening, high rebound, afternoon pullback, and stabilization at the end" after three consecutive days of decline, indicating insufficient rebound momentum [1][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly up by 0.18% at 3,946.74 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index remained flat at 13,080.09 points, and the ChiNext Index saw a minor rebound of 0.25% to 3,076.85 points [2] - Total trading volume dropped significantly to 1.73 trillion yuan, a decrease of 200.2 billion yuan from the previous day, marking a new low for the past month, suggesting that institutions are still cautiously observing the market [1][3] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index maintained support at 3,930 points, forming a combination of "three consecutive declines followed by a small increase and extreme volume contraction," indicating that short-term selling pressure is nearing its end [3] - The ChiNext Index found support at the 60-day moving average, with blue-chip stocks providing a stabilizing effect on the index, although small and mid-cap stocks remain in the early stages of emotional recovery [3] Industry and Hotspot Capture - The banking and insurance sectors showed strong performance, with high-dividend assets acting as a stabilizing force; China Bank surged by 3.81%, reaching a historical high, while China Life and China Pacific Insurance also performed well [5] - Lithium resources regained strength, with lithium carbonate futures breaking through 100,000 yuan per ton, driven by increased downstream battery orders and strong pricing from Australian mines [6] - The military and aquaculture sectors experienced collective surges, driven by geopolitical tensions and China's strong protest against Japan's remarks regarding Taiwan, leading to a suspension of Japanese seafood imports [7] Forward Strategy - Key signals to watch include whether trading volume can return to above 1.9 trillion yuan, and if military and lithium sectors can expand as main lines to drive market momentum [8] - The medium to long-term strategy focuses on high-dividend blue-chip stocks and resource leaders, while the short-term strategy emphasizes participation in event-driven opportunities and avoiding purely emotional stocks [8][9]