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国海富兰克林基金总经理徐荔蓉:骏业新程,共谱新篇
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2026-02-16 00:21
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is entering a new development phase characterized by "long bull, slow bull" trends, driven by improvements in macroeconomic expectations and profound changes in market ecology [2] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 17.66%, the ChiNext Index increased by 49.57%, and the Hang Seng Index grew by 27.77%, indicating a strong overall performance in the AH market despite sectoral differentiation [1] - The investment structure is increasingly optimizing towards long-term and institutional holdings, with the proportion of long-term funds from insurance, wealth management subsidiaries, brokerages, and foreign capital gradually increasing, enhancing overall market stability [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 is optimistic, supported by structural opportunities in the export sector, particularly in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South Africa, which are driving demand for high-end manufacturing and consumer goods [3] - The Chinese consumption market shows unexpected resilience, maintaining low-speed positive growth in retail sales despite a general decline in household net assets, providing a solid buffer for the economy [3] Group 3: Investment Focus - In 2026, the market style is expected to be more balanced, with notable sector rotation and structural rebalancing, focusing on cyclical sectors like chemicals and non-ferrous metals, which are showing positive fundamental changes [4] - The banking sector is viewed as systematically undervalued, with certain quality enterprises exhibiting stable growth attributes, making them attractive assets [4] - The non-bank financial sector is anticipated to gain more market attention due to clear trends in improving return on equity (ROE) [4] - The Hong Kong stock market is seen as an opportunity, driven by valuation recovery, improved liquidity, and profit growth, becoming an essential part of risk diversification and income generation for residents [4]