（原标题：国海富兰克林基金总经理徐荔蓉：骏业新程，共谱新篇） 岁序更替，骏业启新。2026农历马年新春如约而至，值此辞旧迎新、阖家团圆的美好时刻，我谨代表国 海富兰克林基金，向长期以来信任支持我们的每一位持有人、携手同行的合作伙伴、辛勤付出的全体员 工及家人，致以最诚挚的新春祝福！祝愿大家马年投资顺遂，收获满满！ 回首旧岁，AH市场不负众望、整体表现亮眼，2025年沪深300指数上涨17.66%，创业板指上涨 49.57%，恒生指数上涨27.77%。尽管行业板块间存在分化，但我们始终坚守投研初心，以专业能力为 持有人筛选优质标的，力争贡献可持续的风险调整后回报。对未来，我们也充满信心与期待。 长期来看，在宏观经济预期改善与市场生态深刻变革的双重驱动下，A股市场正在步入一个以"长牛、 慢牛"为特征的新发展阶段。这一判断基于以下四个方面的积极变化：首先，投资者结构持续向长期 化、机构化方向优化，保险、理财子公司、券商及外资等中长期资金的持仓占比逐步提升，显著增强了 市场的整体稳定性。其次，随着资本市场在国家发展战略中的地位日益凸显，"国家队"的增持行为正逐 渐转向系统化、规划化的长期配置，成为市场重要的"压舱石" ...

还需加快新工具供给 今年以来，随着期货期权品种体系不断丰富，市场深度不断提升，市场功能有效发挥，期货市场对中长 期资金的吸引力日益显现，而包括保险资金在内的中长期资金扩大参与期货市场，进一步优化了投资者 结构，有助于增强流动性、提升价格发现功能，成为维护期货市场稳健运行的积极因素。 各类资金积极布局期货市场 监控中心表示，今年以来，我国期货市场运行稳中有进，各类资金积极布局、广泛参与，资金总量和客 户权益持续增长，不断夯实期货市场高质量发展根基。继期货市场资金总量于10月9日突破2万亿元之 后，12月8日，期货公司客户权益突破2万亿元，较2024年底增幅超30%。 业内人士表示，今年期货公司客户权益呈现出规模提升与结构优化并行的特征，包括品种工具持续供 给、实体企业风险管理需求提升等因素，共同推动客户权益走高。 国元期货总经理助理徐迪向《证券日报》记者表示，今年期货公司客户权益规模持续扩大，主要受以下 几方面因素推动：一是实体企业风险管理需求显著提升；二是期货品种体系日益丰富，农产品、能源化 工、金融衍生品等多领域新品种陆续推出，有效满足各类投资者风险管理需求和资产配置选择；三是机 构投资者参与度不断提高，保 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market has undergone significant transformation over the past decade, achieving substantial growth in market size, trading activity, and investor structure, while also enhancing its role in supporting the real economy and technological innovation [3][4]. Market Size and Growth - The total market capitalization of A-shares increased from approximately 62.75 trillion yuan in 2015 to 107.19 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a growth of over 70% and surpassing the 100 trillion yuan milestone [2][4]. - The number of listed companies rose from 2,808 in 2015 to 5,167 in 2025, an increase of over 84%, with many new listings coming from emerging sectors such as technology, renewable energy, and pharmaceuticals [2][4]. Trading Activity - Trading activity has significantly increased, with the total trading volume reaching 307 trillion yuan by October 9, 2025, exceeding the total for the entire year of 2015 [5][7]. - The average daily trading volume in 2025 was 16.6 billion yuan, a 60% increase from 10.4 billion yuan in 2015, indicating sustained enthusiasm from market participants [5][6]. Investor Base Expansion - The number of A-share investors has surpassed 240 million, reflecting a growth of over 140% from 99.11 million in 2015, with one in every six Chinese individuals now participating in the A-share market [8][10]. - The structure of investors has shifted from a predominance of retail investors to a more balanced mix, with institutional investors gaining a stronger foothold due to market reforms and increased participation of long-term funds [11][12]. Leverage and Risk Management - The leverage level in the A-share market has returned to a more rational state, with the margin financing balance increasing to 2.39 trillion yuan by September 30, 2025, while the proportion of margin financing to the total market capitalization decreased to 2.49% [12][13]. - The number of margin trading accounts has also grown significantly, from 7.9 million in 2015 to 15.1 million in 2025, indicating a greater acceptance and understanding of leveraged trading among investors [13]. Sectoral Changes - The sectoral landscape has shifted dramatically, with the information technology sector becoming the largest, accounting for 19.76% of the total market capitalization by October 9, 2025, compared to 9.97% in 2015 [15][16]. - Traditional sectors such as finance and real estate have seen a decline in their market share, with the financial sector's proportion dropping from 22.98% to 18.29% and real estate from 4.32% to 1.07% over the same period [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The optimization of the investor structure and the promotion of coordinated development among various types of investors are crucial aspects of the reform of the investment side of the capital market [1] Investor Structure Analysis - The A-share investor structure is categorized into five types: industrial capital, government holdings, professional investment institutions, individual major shareholders, and general individual investors, with their respective market value proportions at 34.4%, 7.6%, 19.2%, 6.4%, and 32.3% by the end of 2024 [1] - Industrial capital and government holdings have increased their market value share, while professional investment institutions and individual major shareholders have seen slight declines [1][2] Role of Industrial Capital and Government Holdings - Industrial capital and government holdings act as a "ballast" for the market, with their combined market value share rising from 37.4% at the end of 2021 to 42.0% by the end of 2024, reflecting their counter-cyclical adjustment role during weaker market conditions [1][2] - The number of shares held by general legal entities, including industrial capital and government holdings, reached 35.5 trillion shares, accounting for 50.9% of A-share circulating shares, marking a continuous increase over two years [2] Impact on Investment Chains - The changes in industrial capital and government holdings guide investment in the industrial chain and stabilize market expectations, particularly in strategic sectors such as public utilities and basic chemicals, where their shareholding has increased significantly [3] Growth of Professional Investment Institutions - Domestic professional investment institutions have been growing, with their shareholding proportion rising to 14.9% by the end of 2024, despite a slight decline in public fund holdings [6][7] - Public funds remain the largest category of institutional investors, with a market value of approximately 5.7 trillion yuan, although their shareholding proportion has decreased to 7.3% [7] Private Equity and Insurance Funds - Private equity funds have become significant players in the A-share market, with a shareholding proportion of 4.1% and a market value of 1.9 trillion yuan [8] - Insurance companies have seen their A-share holdings increase to 1.5 trillion yuan, with a shareholding proportion of 1.9%, reflecting a recovery trend [9] Social Security Fund and Other Institutions - The social security fund, with total assets exceeding 3 trillion yuan, has become an important channel for pension investment in the capital market, holding nearly 500 billion yuan in A-shares [10] - Other domestic investment institutions have also diversified, with their shareholding proportion rising to 0.9% by the end of 2024 [11] Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign institutional holdings have decreased, with a market value of approximately 3.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a decline from a high of 5.6% in 2021 to 4.3% by the end of 2024 [12] Individual Investor Dynamics - General individual investors maintain a shareholding proportion above 30%, with their holdings reaching 25 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, despite a slight decline [13][14] Trading Behavior and Market Impact - Public funds, quantitative private equity, and foreign institutions significantly influence A-share trading styles, with public funds accounting for 8.3% of total trading volume [15][17] - The trading behavior of individual investors has shown a slight decline, with institutional trends becoming more pronounced [16] Coordination Among Investor Types - The differing preferences of various investor types contribute to changes in A-share trading structure, with a need for better alignment and coordination among them to enhance market stability [18][19][20]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the newly introduced technology innovation bonds (科创债) not only represent traditional "high-yield bonds" but also possess unique attributes of "high variability" and "high growth" [2][5][6] Group 1: Market Expansion and Valuation - The technology bond market is expanding, providing a new financing channel for technology companies, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises [2][4] - The issuance of technology innovation bonds is now open to various types of technology enterprises, including those recognized for their technological innovation [2][4] - A dual perspective valuation methodology focusing on both the bond and the issuer is becoming a consensus in the market [5][6] Group 2: Investor Structure and Risk Management - There is a need to enhance the entry threshold for qualified investors to guide those with risk tolerance into the market [2][8] - The development of risk management tools is essential to provide investors with means to mitigate risks [2][8] - Improving the investor protection mechanism for technology innovation bonds is crucial for fostering a supportive environment for small and medium-sized technology enterprises [2][9] Group 3: Characteristics of Technology Innovation Bonds - Technology innovation bonds are characterized by their "high variability," allowing for flexible bond structures that can include innovative clauses such as conversion options and floating interest rates [5][6] - The "high growth" aspect focuses on the future potential of companies, suggesting that bonds from innovative firms may have lower financing costs due to investor confidence in their growth prospects [6][7] - The combination of "high variability" and "high growth" attributes provides unique advantages in the market, enhancing the appeal of these bonds to long-term investors [6][7] Group 4: Future Development and Regulatory Considerations - The potential of the technology innovation bond market is significant, but its development must proceed steadily with improved regulatory policies and risk management systems [7][8] - Recommendations include simplifying the bond issuance process, enhancing information disclosure standards, and allowing more diverse investment vehicles to participate in the technology innovation bond market [8][9] - There is a call for increased investor education to ensure a better understanding of the risk-return profile associated with technology innovation bonds [9]