1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the future week, tax payments will disrupt the liquidity, and the net payment scale of government bonds will decline slightly. After the progress in Sino - US negotiations, the central bank's attitude can be observed through its operations during the tax period, and the liquidity is expected to operate in a balanced manner [1]. - In the future week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit (CDs) is nearly 750 billion yuan, the supply - side pressure will rise slightly, the pressure on banks' liability side is controllable, and the benefits of the double - cut have been fully priced in. CD yields are expected to fluctuate following the changes in the liquidity [1]. - Recently, funds have significantly disrupted the short - end. Next week, the combination of the tax period and the possible implementation of repurchase agreements may lead to large fluctuations in funds, and the short - end may also be affected. Since late March, bond funds' net buying of general credit bonds has increased significantly and the buying volume has been basically stable. Opportunities brought by the sinking of medium - and short - term credit bonds with appropriate coupons can continue to be monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Fund Review - In the statistical period (May 12 - 16, 2025), the 7 - day reverse repurchase funds matured at 836.1 billion yuan, the central bank injected 486 billion yuan of 7 - day funds, and the MLF matured at 125 billion yuan. The total net withdrawal of funds for the week was 475.1 billion yuan, and the 7 - day OMO stock decreased to 486 billion yuan [10]. - During the statistical period, the RMB appreciated by 4 basis points against the US dollar, and the amplitude of the counter - cyclical factor application decreased significantly [10]. - In terms of government bond progress, in the past week, the net financing of national bonds was 501.16 billion yuan, significantly increasing, and the net financing since the beginning of the year was 2.40052 trillion yuan, completing 36% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds was 97.02 billion yuan, and the issuance since the beginning of the year was 1.6899 trillion yuan, completing 32.5% of the annual plan. As of May 18, the issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts was 1.6 trillion yuan, completing 79.9% of the annual plan [12]. - In terms of fund structure, from Monday to Thursday, the liquidity was "high in quantity and stable in price", feeling relatively loose, and the lending scale of large - scale banks increased significantly to over 4 trillion yuan. However, on Friday, the liquidity tightened significantly, and the overnight and 7 - day interest rates rose above 1.6% [2][17]. 3.1.2 CD Review - In the primary market, the net financing scale of inter - bank CDs was - 6.853 billion yuan, the total issuance amount was 51.399 billion yuan, and the maturity amount was 58.252 billion yuan. The average issuance interest rate was 1.6448% (previous value: 1.7094%) [21]. - In the secondary market, the core buyers such as money market funds, wealth management products, and large - scale banks continued to increase their holdings, while rural commercial banks turned to significant selling. The secondary - market yields of CDs were stable first and then increased slightly during the week, and the yield curve steepened. The yields of 1M/3M/6M/9M/1Y CDs changed by + 5.25BP/+3.12BP/+1.56BP/+3.5BP/+2.14BP respectively [26]. 3.1.3 Next Week's Focus - In terms of liquidity, tax payments will disrupt the liquidity, the net payment scale of government bonds will decline slightly, and the central bank's operations during the tax period should be monitored. The liquidity is expected to operate in a balanced manner [30]. - In terms of CDs, the maturity scale of CDs is nearly 750 billion yuan, the supply - side pressure will rise slightly, the pressure on banks' liability side is controllable, and CD yields are expected to fluctuate following the changes in the liquidity [31]. 3.2 Weekly Review of Institutional Behavior and Micro - structure 3.2.1 Institutional Behavior Review - In the secondary trading, the sentiment of funds towards interest - rate bonds declined significantly, the sentiment towards general credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds was relatively stable, but the duration converged, and a sinking strategy was further adopted for medium - and short - term credit bonds. Wealth management products significantly increased their allocation of CDs, and the demand for credit bonds was still weak compared with the same period in previous years. Rural commercial banks' sentiment of increasing their allocation of interest - rate bonds became stronger, and they significantly net - bought 3 - 10 - year interest - rate bonds and ultra - long - term national bonds over 10 years in the secondary market [3]. - In the future week, recent funds have significantly disrupted the short - end. Next week, the combination of the tax period and the possible implementation of repurchase agreements may lead to large fluctuations in funds, and the short - end may also be affected. Since late March, bond funds' net buying of general credit bonds has increased significantly and the buying volume has been basically stable. Opportunities brought by the sinking of medium - and short - term credit bonds with appropriate coupons can continue to be monitored [1][33]. 3.2.2 Micro - structure Tracking - In terms of institutional duration, on May 16, the median of the 10 - day rolling average duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 3.17 years, and the duration level was basically flat compared with the previous period. The 5 - day moving average long - bond duration index of funds on May 16 was 0.44, decreasing by 0.1 in the past week; the 5 - day moving average long - bond duration index of rural commercial banks was 0.63, increasing by 0.11 in the past week [38][40]. - In terms of institutional leverage, the bond - market leverage ratio in the past week was 107.12%, slightly increasing compared with the previous period. The net financing demand of funds and other products among non - bank institutions increased, while that of securities firms decreased. The net lending demand of money market funds, wealth management products, and other institutions among lenders decreased. The net lending scale of large - scale banks and joint - stock banks among the banking system increased slightly, the net lending scale of city commercial banks decreased, and the net financing scale of rural commercial banks increased [43]. - In terms of key spreads, on May 16, the 10Y China Development Bank - 10Y national bond term spread was 3.40bp, fluctuating; the 1Y China Development Bank - R001 spread was - 7.77BP, and the inversion pattern between short - term bonds and fund prices converged [49].