赔率和胜率投资期望结合方式
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风格轮动策略周报:当下价值、成长的赔率和胜率几何?-20251019
CMS· 2025-10-19 09:17
Group 1 - The report introduces a quantitative model solution for addressing the value-growth style switching issue, based on the combination of odds and win rates [1][8] - The recent performance of the growth style portfolio was -4.26%, while the value style portfolio returned -1.17% [1][8] Group 2 - The estimated odds for the growth style is 1.09, and for the value style, it is 1.12, indicating a negative correlation between relative valuation levels and expected odds [2][14] - The current win rate for the growth style is 63.24%, while the value style has a win rate of 36.76%, based on seven indicators [3][16] Group 3 - The latest investment expectation for the growth style is calculated to be 0.32, while the value style has an investment expectation of -0.22, leading to a recommendation for the growth style [4][18] - Since 2013, the annualized return of the style rotation model based on investment expectations is 27.59%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.03 [4][19]