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基金研究周报:双创板块迎调整,价值风格显韧性(10.6-10.10)
Wind万得· 2025-10-11 22:33
图 一周摘要 图 市场概况: 上周(10月6日至10月10日)A股市场再度分化,成长风格与价值风格表现迥异,但整体表 现仍呈现出一定韧性。成长风格方面,前期表现强劲的双创板块出现较大幅度调整,创业板指下跌 3.86%,创业板50下跌4.56%,科创50下跌2.85%,万得双创下跌2.68%,投资者针对前期超额收益明显 的泛科技板块出现了集中的畏高情绪。而反观价值风格方面,中证红利表现突出,上涨1.79%,反映出 在市场在海外不确定性渐次攀升的背景下,资金对高股息、低估值品种的青睐。万得微盘指数微涨 0.66%,显示出部分资金仍在货币宽松基调不变的情况下寻找估值较低、弹性较大的小票机会。全周上 证指数上涨0.37%,深证指数下跌1.26%,创业板指下跌3.86%。 行业板块: 上周Wind一级平均涨幅0.15%,Wind百大概念指数上涨比例50%。板块方面,55%板块获得 正收益,有色金属、煤炭、钢铁相对表现良好,分别上涨4.44%、4.41%、4.18%,石油石化、建筑装 饰、建筑材料等均出现小幅上行,而电力设备、电子、传媒则明显走弱,分别下跌2.52%、2.63%、 3.83%。 基金发行: 上周合计发行4 ...
AH股市场周度观察(10月第1周)-20251011
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-10-11 04:09
A H 股市场周度观察(10 月第 1 周) 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 10 月 11 日 执业证书编号:S0740519080003 Email:xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号:S0740520120003 Email:zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 是结构性切换?》2025-08-10 2、《A H 股市场周度观察(8 月第 1 周)》2025-08-04 3、《7 月政治局会议对市场影响几 何?》2025-08-03 分析师:徐驰 报告摘要 一、A 股: 二、港股: 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师:张文宇 【市场走势】本周 A 股市场表现分化,价值风格表现突出。从宽基指数来看,上证指 数微涨 0.37%,而创业板指则大幅下跌 3.86%,显示出市场内部的显著差异。风格方 面,价值板块普遍上涨,其中中盘价值涨幅居前;而成长板块则普遍回调。成交额方 面,本周两个交易日日均成交额为 2.6 万亿,环比略有回升。 相关报告 1、《当前市场调整是大周期见顶还 【深入剖析】本周为国庆节后第一周,仅两个交易日,市场波动明显放大。一方面, 国庆期间工业金属与贵金属价格 ...
[10月10日]指数估值数据(成长风格回调,价值风格上涨;港股医药回低估了吗;港股指数估值表更新;抽奖福利)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-10-10 13:55
文 | 银行螺丝钉 (转载请注明出处) 今天大盘整体下跌,截止到收盘,还在4.1星。 大中小盘股都下跌。 成长风格下跌较多。 昨天创业板指数摸到高估,今天创业板指下跌超4%。 科创50指数下跌4.7%。 逐渐从低估爬起来了。 港股也出现下跌。 港股科技等成长风格下跌较多。 A股港股还是经常出现风格轮动。 成长风格弹性大,上涨下跌会更猛烈; 价值风格弹性小一些,遇到回调的时候波动也小。 盈亏同源。 不过市场还是风格轮动的。 成长风格大跌,价值风格就比较坚挺。 红利、价值、自由现金流等指数普遍上涨。 自由现金流最近比较坚挺,连续5个交易日上涨。 1. 最近港股医药类指数波动比较大。 9日恒生医疗保健指数下跌4.9%。其他港股医药类指数也出现波动。 也有朋友问港股医药类指数目前回到低估了么? 2. 港股医药类指数也是很庞大的一类品种。 不过在指数命名规则上,跟内地有区别。 A股的医药,是一个一级行业。 对应医药的指数,主要是中证医药(投资沪深300、中证500的医药股),全指医药(全部医药指数),医药100(医药的头部100家)。 在医药指数下,还有医疗、生物科技、创新药三个主要的子行业。 港股的医药指数,全称是恒 ...
月度策略:均衡配置成长与价值风格,防范风格切换-20251009
Zhongyuan Securities· 2025-10-09 12:03
分析师:徐至 登记编码:S0730525040001 均衡配置成长与价值风格,防范风格切换 ——月度策略 相关报告 《月度策略:市场波动加大,均衡配置成长与 价值——月度策略》 2025-09-05 《月度策略:建议关注成长与价值轮动带来的 机会——月度策略》 2025-08-07 《月度策略:稳健前行,建议关注消费与红利 资产——月度策略》 2025-07-07 投资要点: 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共21页 电话: 0371-65585629 地址: 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10 号18楼 地址: 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788 号T1 座22 楼 证券研究报告-月度策略 发布日期:2025 年 10 月 09 日 联系人:李智 ⚫ 宏观方面。从 9 月份公布的经济数据看,当前宏观经济处于"弱 复苏、低通胀"的阶段,政策层面以稳增长与防风险为主。在此背 景下,货币财政政策维持宽松基调,流动性环境保持充裕,叠加市 场对经济企稳的预期逐步形成,从资金供给与情绪层面共同为新增 资金入场提供了有利支撑。 ⚫ 政策层面。9 月 11 日,国务院印 ...
风格轮动策略周报:当下价值、成长的赔率和胜率几何?-20250928
CMS· 2025-09-28 14:50
——风格轮动策略周报 20250926 在《如何从赔率和胜率看成长/价值轮动》报告中,我们创新性地提出了基于 赔率和胜率的投资期望结合方式,为应对价值成长风格切换问题提供了定量模 型解决方案。后续,我们将持续在样本外进行跟踪并做定期汇报。 上周全市场成长风格组合收益-0.48%,而全市场价值风格组合收益为- 0.82%。 1、赔率 证券研究报告 | 金融工程报告 2025 年 09 月 28 日 当下价值/成长的赔率和胜率几何? 在前述报告中,我们已经进行了验证,即市场风格相应的相对估值水平 是其预期赔率的关键影响因素,并且两者应该呈现出负相关。由于存在上述 线性关系,我们根据最新的估值差分位数,可推得当下成长风格的赔率估计 为 1.11,价值风格的赔率估计为 1.13。 2、胜率 在七个胜率指标中,当前有 5 个指向成长,2 个指向价值。根据映射方 案,当下成长风格的胜率为 63.24%,价值风格的胜率为 36.76%。 3、最新推荐风格:成长 根据公式,投资期望=胜率*赔率-(1-胜率)。我们计算得最新的成长风格 投资期望为 0.33,价值风格的投资期望为-0.22,因此最新一期的风格轮动模 型推荐为成长 ...
四点半观市 | 机构:A股市场上行推动居民部门大类资产配置调整
Market Performance - A-shares experienced a collective rise on September 24, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.83%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.80%, ChiNext Index up 2.28%, STAR Market 50 Index up 3.49%, and Northbound 50 Index up 2.03% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 23,471 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,713 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 4,400 stocks in the market rose, with nearly 90 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] International Indices - The Nikkei 225 Index closed up 0.3% at 45,630.31 points, while the Korean Composite Index fell 0.4% to 3,472.14 points on the same day [1] Commodity and Bond Markets - Most domestic commodity futures contracts rose, with glass futures leading the gains [1] - Government bond futures contracts closed lower, influenced by the strong stock market and rising risk appetite, which exerted pressure on the bond market [1] ETF Performance - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) rose by 9.55%, and the semiconductor equipment ETF fund (159327) increased by 9.40% [1] Convertible Bond Market - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 1.3%, closing at 476.83 points [2] Institutional Insights - UBS Securities noted that the upward trend in A-shares has begun to drive adjustments in asset allocation among residents, attracting outside capital into the market [3] - Open Source Securities highlighted that after several months of rising indices, the market is at a relatively high position, with most sectors in technology facing high valuations [3] - Silver Fund emphasized that international leading tech companies have raised their annual capital expenditure expectations from $300 billion to $350 billion, indicating increased investment in data centers and AI infrastructure [3] - China Galaxy Securities remains optimistic about the computing power sector, which is still in the performance realization phase, and anticipates 2026 to be a key year for the foldable screen market recovery [3]
20cm速递|科创创业ETF(588360)盘中涨超3%,近期成长风格显著优于价值风格
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-24 08:19
Group 1 - The Core Viewpoint: The recent strong performance of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index indicates a significant outperformance of growth style over value style, driven by increased capital expenditure in AI foundational models, cloud services, and the gaming/advertising sectors [1] - Semiconductor companies have revised their profit expectations upward, primarily benefiting from strong demand in AI, data centers, mature processes, and domestic substitution [1] - In the new energy and manufacturing sectors, policies and overseas expansion are the main profit drivers, with intelligent penetration enhancing value, particularly for leading companies with high channel, cost, and vertical integration, as well as a significant overseas presence [1] Group 2 - The Science and Technology Innovation ETF (588360) tracks the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index (931643), which has a maximum fluctuation of 20% and includes 50 emerging industry stocks with good liquidity and large market capitalization from the Science and Technology Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [1] - The index samples cover core technology fields such as semiconductors, new energy, and biomedicine, featuring characteristics of high growth and industry balance, aiming to reflect the overall market performance of China's cutting-edge technology innovation enterprises [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF Initiated Link A (013306) and Guotai Zhongzheng Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF Initiated Link C (013307) [1]
市场周报·209期|上周股市缩量波动放大、中小盘成长板块调整明显
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-12 12:53
Market Overview - The stock market experienced increased volatility with a notable adjustment in the small-cap growth sector, while value stocks outperformed growth stocks [3][9] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.2%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.8%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.4% [3] Bond Market - Bond yields saw a slight decline, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 1 basis point to 1.83% and the 30-year yield down by 3 basis points to 2.11% [4] International Market - The U.S. labor market showed weakness with only 22,000 non-farm jobs added in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [5][10] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.4%, outperforming A-shares due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and continued inflow of capital [5] Sector Performance - Notable sectors included power equipment and new energy (up 5.91%), non-ferrous metals (up 2.26%), and pharmaceuticals (up 1.49%), while defense and military (-11.61%) and computers (-6.76%) underperformed [7][9] - The market saw a shift in capital flow, with low-growth sectors like power equipment and new energy performing well due to high-low switching of funds [9] Fund Issuance - A total of 38 public funds were issued last week, accumulating 27.6 billion units, with a noticeable shift towards equity funds [13]
如果此时满仓红利,该怎么办?
雪球· 2025-09-11 07:56
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current challenges faced by investors heavily invested in dividend stocks, highlighting the underperformance of dividend indices compared to broader market indices since June 23, 2025, and suggests strategies for adjusting portfolios to improve returns [7][9][21]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since June 23, 2025, broad-based and actively managed equity funds have seen gains of 20% or more, while dividend indices like the Shanghai Dividend and CSI Dividend have seen maximum gains of no more than 5% [7]. - The article notes that investors who are fully invested in dividend stocks may be experiencing significant discomfort due to the poor performance of these assets [8]. Group 2: Investor Strategies - For long-term investors who have held dividend stocks through various market cycles, the article suggests that they may not need to take any action, as they understand the nature of these assets [8]. - For newer investors who entered the market during the recent dividend bull run, the article provides actionable strategies to navigate the current market conditions [9][21]. Group 3: Transitioning Investment Focus - The article emphasizes that both dividend and growth assets cannot be effective or ineffective in the long term, suggesting a potential shift towards growth-oriented investments while maintaining a balanced risk profile [11]. - It proposes that investors consider reallocating from pure dividend holdings to deep value fund managers who have shown better performance relative to dividend indices [14]. Group 4: Upgrading Dividend Indices - The article recommends upgrading dividend indices by incorporating growth factors, suggesting two main investment directions: 1. Free Cash Flow series indices, which have outperformed traditional dividend indices since June 23, 2025 [16][17]. 2. Dividend Quality indices, which have also shown significant gains compared to pure dividend indices [18]. Group 5: Additional Optimization Methods - The article suggests considering large-cap broad-based or value-oriented indices, such as the CSI 300 or Shanghai Composite Index, as they are expected to outperform pure dividend strategies in the near term [19]. - It also recommends exploring dividend-paying stocks with growth attributes, particularly in sectors like consumer goods and liquor, which may offer better returns than traditional dividend stocks [20]. Conclusion - The article concludes that rather than making drastic changes to investment portfolios, investors should focus on optimizing their holdings to align with current market conditions while maintaining patience [21][22].
W124市场观察:盈利质量、红利风格交易活跃度有所回暖
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-07 10:11
Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced increased volatility with a slight decline in trading volume during the week[2] - Growth style saw a pullback, but a strong rebound was noted on the last trading day, particularly in the ChiNext Index[2] Trading Activity - Dividend style trading activity showed signs of recovery, while high profitability quality continued to rise[3] - The congestion level in high dividend sectors like coal and insurance remains at the bottom, indicating potential for growth[2] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector led the weekly performance, with healthcare leaders significantly outperforming dividend stocks in the same sector[3] - The value stable and value prosperity composite strategies outperformed during the week[3] Fund Performance - The Fund Heavyweight 50 Index recorded a weekly return of 2.35%, continuing its upward trend[22] - The overall performance of the Fund Heavyweight Index was volatile, but it led the institutional series in returns[22] Theme Trends - The low-carbon leader indices (30/60) showed strong weekly performance, with returns of 8.58% and 8.26% respectively[34] - The carbon neutrality index also performed well, with a weekly return of 5.53%[34]