跨境电商反脆弱性

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品牌出海:致欧科技、乐歌股份
2025-05-14 15:19
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the cross-border e-commerce industry, particularly the impact of US-China trade tensions on companies like Zhiyou Technology and Lega Co., Ltd. [1][3][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Impact of US-China Trade Tensions**: Initial trade frictions significantly affected cross-border e-commerce, especially for multi-category premium e-commerce reliant on Chinese supply chains. The shift of supply chains to Southeast Asia is time-consuming, and the cost burden is passed downstream, raising market concerns [1][4]. - **Small Package Tariff Adjustments**: Although the tariff rate on small packages has decreased from 120% to 54%, the total tariff remains unchanged at $100, keeping export costs high for small items, particularly in apparel. The US controls this tariff rate, making negotiations for further reductions unlikely [5]. - **Growth Opportunities**: Current market conditions present growth opportunities in B2C large durable goods, B2B models, and overseas warehouse operations. The online penetration rate for large home goods is increasing, and small B customers are demanding direct sales from manufacturers [6][7]. - **Zhiyou Technology's Market Position**: Zhiyou Technology has a strong brand and channel advantage in the European market, which can be replicated for large item expansions. The company expects gradual recovery in the US market through price adjustments despite tariff impacts [8][9]. - **Lega Co., Ltd.'s Development**: Lega Co., Ltd. specializes in ergonomic products and has seen good growth in its independent site. The company plans to expand into electric sofas and beds, with expectations of improved profitability by 2025 [10]. Additional Important Insights - **Resilience of Cross-Border E-commerce**: The resilience of cross-border e-commerce companies is attributed to their control over channels and the ability to quickly adapt product offerings based on consumer demand. This positions them to better withstand external risks [2]. - **Market Expectations for Financial Performance**: Market expectations for Zhiyou Technology's revenue in 2025 are around 410 million yuan, while Lega Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve approximately 400 million yuan in profit. These forecasts are based on assumptions of damage to the US market, indicating potential for upside surprises [3][10]. - **Inventory Management**: Many cross-border e-commerce companies have sufficient overseas inventory, which mitigates the impact of tariffs and allows for continued sales during periods of heightened tariffs [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the cross-border e-commerce sector.