Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Lege Co., Ltd. has shown excellent performance in expanding new product categories, although various factors have impacted short-term profitability, leading to a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Lege Co., Ltd. achieved operating revenue of 3.145 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.56%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19.47% to 129 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items fell by 26.58% to 79 million [2] - In Q2 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.600 billion, a 22.57% increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 77 million, down 3.87%, and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 53 million, down 19.70% [2] Business Analysis - Cross-border e-commerce revenue grew by 9.16% to 1.000 billion in H1 2025, with independent site revenue increasing by 11.22% to 410 million, accounting for 41% of cross-border e-commerce income [3] - Ergonomic product series generated 1.383 billion in revenue, a 3.48% year-on-year increase, while new categories like electric sofas and ergonomic chairs contributed approximately 20% to revenue growth [3] - Overseas warehouse revenue surged by 84.27% to 1.559 billion, serving 1,744 outbound enterprises, with the German warehouse achieving over 70% utilization and profitability [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for H1 2025 decreased by 5.66 percentage points to 25.69%, primarily due to the increased share of overseas warehouse revenue and rising logistics costs [4] - The gross margin for ergonomic products was 41.46%, up by 1.29 percentage points, while the gross margin for warehousing logistics services fell by 5.31 percentage points to 9.69% [4] - Expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 14.52%, 4.19%, 3.52%, and 0.03%, respectively, with sales expense ratio decreasing by 2.05 percentage points [4] Future Outlook - The overseas warehouse business is expected to maintain high growth rates and improve profitability due to increasing e-commerce penetration in the U.S. and enhanced operational efficiency [5] - The company's strong product demand and development capabilities, along with its overseas operational experience, are anticipated to mitigate trade friction impacts and support future growth [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.91, 1.04, and 1.20 yuan, respectively, with current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16.18, 14.09, and 12.26 times [6]

Group 1: Overseas Warehouse Business - The company's overseas warehouse business has maintained profitability despite a challenging trade environment, with a significant scale of operations reaching millions of shipments [1][2] - In Q2, the overseas warehouse revenue increased by 66% year-on-year, indicating resilience in U.S. consumer demand despite tariffs and inflation [2] - As of June, the company served 1,744 clients with a shipment volume of 9.1 million, a year-on-year increase of over 120%, and expects to exceed 20 million shipments for the year [2] Group 2: Non-U.S. Warehouse Operations - Non-U.S. warehouses, particularly in Germany, the UK, and Canada, have achieved a capacity utilization rate of over 70%, showing improved profitability [3] - The company plans cautious expansion of overseas warehouses based on market demand [3] Group 3: Domestic Smart Home Business - The domestic marketing business reversed a two-year decline, achieving profitability with a significant improvement in operating profit margin [4] - Future strategies include building a nationwide dealer channel and enhancing e-commerce marketing to maintain market share and profitability [4] Group 4: Impact of Tariff Policies - Tariffs have increased product costs, with the company facing potential tariffs of 20% or more, necessitating price adjustments to mitigate cost impacts [5][6] - The company aims to build a comprehensive global supply chain to address tariff risks, including relocating some production closer to major consumer markets [6] Group 5: Cross-Border E-Commerce Development - The Flexispot brand has become a leader in the linear drive consumer goods sector, with significant brand recognition and search volume growth in the U.S. and Europe [6][7] - The company continues to enhance offline channel development to increase brand exposure and customer interaction [6] Group 6: Independent Website Performance - The company operates 12 independent websites, with U.S. site traffic leading the industry and independent site sales accounting for over 40% of cross-border e-commerce revenue, a year-on-year increase of 11.22% [8] - New product categories, such as ergonomic chairs and electric sofas, have seen sales growth exceeding 100%, with new product sales accounting for 20% of total revenue [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a 29.6% increase in revenue to 3.145 billion yuan for 1H25, but a 19.5% decline in net profit attributable to shareholders to 129 million yuan, slightly below expectations due to increased last-mile delivery costs and challenges in the overseas warehouse business [1] Revenue Performance - Revenue for 1H25 increased by 29.6% to 3.145 billion yuan, with a quarterly breakdown showing a 37.7% increase in Q1 and a 22.6% increase in Q2 [1] - The overseas warehouse segment saw a significant revenue increase of 84.3% to 1.57 billion yuan, accounting for 49.9% of total revenue, driven by higher e-commerce penetration in the U.S. and the expansion of domestic cross-border enterprises [2] - The ergonomic product line generated 1.38 billion yuan in revenue, a 3.5% increase, with sales of ergonomic chairs, electric sofas, and electric beds doubling [2] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for 1H25 decreased by 5.7 percentage points to 25.7%, influenced by the revenue structure shift towards overseas warehouses [3] - The gross margins for ergonomic products and overseas warehouses were 41.5% and 9.7%, respectively, with the latter experiencing a decline of 5.3 percentage points [3] - The net profit margin and adjusted net profit margin fell to 4.1% and 2.5%, respectively, due to high management expenses and the impact of new warehouse operations [3] Future Outlook - The ergonomic business is expected to grow steadily due to strong brand presence overseas and the introduction of new product categories [3] - The profitability of overseas warehouses is anticipated to improve as demand for cross-border e-commerce remains strong and operational efficiencies are realized [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 26% and 11% to 300 million yuan and 430 million yuan, respectively [4] - The current price corresponds to 17 and 12 times the projected P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026, with an 18% upside potential based on the maintained target price [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the transformation of traditional furniture companies towards smart and health-oriented products, exemplified by Yongyi Furniture's ergonomic chairs and smart desks, which are gaining traction in the Latin American market [2] - Yongyi Furniture's exports to the Latin American market have increased by 19.3% this year, with an expected additional growth of 10% in the second half of the year [2] - The company benefits from favorable origin policies under customs guidance, enhancing its competitive edge in international markets [2] Group 2 - Geek Garden Furniture focuses on innovative products in the functional sofa segment, such as an electric sofa that assists users in standing up, which has gained popularity in the European market [3] - The company has shipped over 200 containers of its products abroad in the first half of the year, with a total value of nearly 20 million yuan [3] - Hangzhou Customs supports Chinese smart furniture companies in entering international markets by providing targeted policy guidance and ensuring they fully benefit from tariff reductions under free trade agreements [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 98.57 CNY, maintaining the rating [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company continues to show strong performance with a projected net profit of 4.10-4.60 billion CNY for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.70%-61.23% [1]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas self-owned brand strategy, particularly in North America, with significant progress in the "MOTOGallery" project [2][3]. - The product structure is continuously optimized, with electric sofas showing a revenue increase of 37.13% year-on-year, contributing to overall profitability [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company expects a net profit of 2.16-2.66 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 31.71%-62.20% [1]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is projected at 39.35%, up 5.40 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is expected to be 26.80%, an increase of 5.60 percentage points [4]. Product and Market Development - The company has seen a significant increase in the number of direct retail customers, with the "store-in-store" model successfully implemented, providing stable channel support for growth [2]. - The company has expanded its retail network in North America, with over 500 store-in-store setups in the U.S. and 24 stores in Canada, enhancing brand influence and sales stability [2]. Customer Base and Sales Growth - The top 10 customers have shown growth in procurement amounts, with a total of 96 new customers added in 2024 and Q1 2025, all from U.S. retailers [3]. - The company’s retail channel layout in the U.S. has proven effective, with an increase in both the number of retail customers and their contribution to sales [3]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has maintained good control over period expenses, with a period expense ratio of 8.02% in 2024, down 3.05 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The company’s focus on high-quality brand positioning and innovation has led to a more diversified and stable development pattern [4]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 31.62 billion CNY, 38.50 billion CNY, and 46.31 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.84 billion CNY, 10.36 billion CNY, and 12.32 billion CNY [11].

Group 1: Childcare Subsidy Policy - The childcare subsidy system in China has formed a progressive framework of "childcare support - economic relief - cash subsidies," aimed at reducing care costs and enhancing fertility willingness, especially among low-income groups [1][27] - The government has shifted fiscal spending from investment to improving people's livelihoods, emphasizing the need to optimize the fiscal expenditure structure to strengthen basic livelihood financial support [1][28] - The "localized" nature of subsidies is seen as a refined governance experiment under tight fiscal conditions, serving as an important tool for current fiscal policy with a core consumption stimulation effect based on the "multiplier effect" [1][29] Group 2: Marine Economy and Technology - The marine economy is projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 7.8% of the national GDP, highlighting its significance as a growth driver [3] - The global regulatory framework for stablecoins is accelerating, with recent legislative developments in the US and Hong Kong, which may enhance the internationalization of the Renminbi [3] - Breakthroughs in brain-computer interface technology are paving the way for commercialization, with significant clinical trials indicating rapid advancements in the field [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Maternal and Infant Products - The maternal and infant products market is expected to reach 4.68 trillion yuan by 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 7%, driven by increasing disposable income and consumption capabilities [8][36] - The early education and childcare market is anticipated to expand due to government support, with a focus on integrating medical and educational services [8] - The assisted reproductive services market is projected to grow to 49.6 billion yuan by 2023, benefiting from increased fertility willingness driven by childcare subsidies [8]

Summary of the Conference Call for Minhua Holdings Company Overview - **Company**: Minhua Holdings - **Industry**: Furniture, specifically focusing on sofas and mattresses Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Macro Environment**: Domestic sales are affected by the macro environment and consumer confidence, with offline channels under pressure while online channels show slight growth [2][6] 2. **Sales Strategy**: The company plans to increase store presence in first and second-tier cities and expand online brand stores to enhance distribution capabilities [2][6] 3. **Government Subsidy Policy**: The impact of government subsidy policies on performance has weakened due to long replacement cycles for sofas, high unit prices, and demand exhaustion [2][5] 4. **Product Performance**: Functional sofas perform well, accounting for over 70% of sales, while mattresses face challenges due to longer replacement cycles and higher commoditization [2][7] 5. **Market Share**: North America accounts for 26% of total revenue, while Europe accounts for 9%. The company is monitoring potential tariffs from the U.S. on Vietnam [2][4] 6. **European Market Outlook**: The company aims for double-digit growth in Europe, benefiting from lower gross margins, low interest rates, and reduced shipping costs [2][15] 7. **Profitability Goals**: The company aims to maintain stable gross and net profit margins, supported by economies of scale and declining raw material costs [2][19] 8. **Sales Performance**: Domestic sales are projected to remain flat in 2025, with challenges in both online and offline channels [2][12] 9. **Store Expansion Plans**: The company plans to open 300 new stores in first and second-tier cities, with an average size of at least 500 square meters [2][9] 10. **E-commerce Development**: The company aims to enhance its online presence by opening more brand stores and collaborating with e-commerce platforms [2][11] 11. **Profit Margin Stability**: The company expects to maintain stable profit margins despite global consumer weakness affecting raw material prices [2][19] 12. **Long-term Industry Outlook**: The electric sofa industry is fragmented, with long-term growth dependent on economic recovery and increased consumer focus on quality and brand [3][23] Additional Important Insights 1. **Sales Composition**: In 2024, domestic sales accounted for approximately 60% of total revenue, with a low double-digit decline observed in early 2025 [4] 2. **Challenges in Mattress Sales**: Mattress sales declined by about 10% in volume and 5% in average price last year, indicating a competitive market [7] 3. **Store Profitability**: Approximately 60% of stores are profitable, while 30% break even and 10% incur losses [10] 4. **Consumer Behavior Trends**: The market is experiencing a trend of consumption downgrade, impacting pricing and sales dynamics [22] 5. **Innovation in Products**: The company is introducing new features in products, such as mini-fridges and sound systems, particularly appealing to U.S. consumers [24]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the cross-border e-commerce industry, particularly the impact of US-China trade tensions on companies like Zhiyou Technology and Lega Co., Ltd. [1][3][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Impact of US-China Trade Tensions**: Initial trade frictions significantly affected cross-border e-commerce, especially for multi-category premium e-commerce reliant on Chinese supply chains. The shift of supply chains to Southeast Asia is time-consuming, and the cost burden is passed downstream, raising market concerns [1][4]. - **Small Package Tariff Adjustments**: Although the tariff rate on small packages has decreased from 120% to 54%, the total tariff remains unchanged at $100, keeping export costs high for small items, particularly in apparel. The US controls this tariff rate, making negotiations for further reductions unlikely [5]. - **Growth Opportunities**: Current market conditions present growth opportunities in B2C large durable goods, B2B models, and overseas warehouse operations. The online penetration rate for large home goods is increasing, and small B customers are demanding direct sales from manufacturers [6][7]. - **Zhiyou Technology's Market Position**: Zhiyou Technology has a strong brand and channel advantage in the European market, which can be replicated for large item expansions. The company expects gradual recovery in the US market through price adjustments despite tariff impacts [8][9]. - **Lega Co., Ltd.'s Development**: Lega Co., Ltd. specializes in ergonomic products and has seen good growth in its independent site. The company plans to expand into electric sofas and beds, with expectations of improved profitability by 2025 [10]. Additional Important Insights - **Resilience of Cross-Border E-commerce**: The resilience of cross-border e-commerce companies is attributed to their control over channels and the ability to quickly adapt product offerings based on consumer demand. This positions them to better withstand external risks [2]. - **Market Expectations for Financial Performance**: Market expectations for Zhiyou Technology's revenue in 2025 are around 410 million yuan, while Lega Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve approximately 400 million yuan in profit. These forecasts are based on assumptions of damage to the US market, indicating potential for upside surprises [3][10]. - **Inventory Management**: Many cross-border e-commerce companies have sufficient overseas inventory, which mitigates the impact of tariffs and allows for continued sales during periods of heightened tariffs [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the cross-border e-commerce sector.

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Lege Co., Ltd. (乐歌股份) has experienced significant growth in its overseas warehouse business, although its profitability is temporarily under pressure. The company maintains a "buy" rating despite the challenges faced in the cross-border e-commerce sector [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.67 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 45.3%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 340 million yuan, down 47.0% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.54 billion yuan, an increase of 37.7%, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, down 35.2% [2]. - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards due to increased competition and trade friction, with expected net profits of 363 million yuan, 439 million yuan, and 525 million yuan respectively [2]. Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 29.1%, a decrease of 7.4 percentage points, while the net profit margin fell to 5.9%, down 10.3 percentage points [3]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 25.9%, a decline of 5.4 percentage points, with a net profit margin of 3.4%, down 3.8 percentage points [3]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to several factors, including reduced non-recurring gains from overseas warehouse sales, increased R&D investments, and high shipping costs impacting cross-border e-commerce profits [3]. Business Segment Performance - The overseas warehouse business generated revenue of 2.42 billion yuan in 2024, a remarkable increase of 154.8%, with a gross margin of 10.4% [4]. - The cross-border e-commerce segment achieved revenue of 2.03 billion yuan, up 14.3%, with independent site revenue growing by 22.0% to 820 million yuan [4]. - The company has established a diversified sales model covering various channels, and its production capacity for linear drive lift systems has reached 2.5 million sets annually, leading the global market [4]. Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about future growth driven by increasing e-commerce penetration in the U.S. and strengthening brand power of Chinese cross-border e-commerce [4]. - The dual growth engines of cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouses are expected to continue driving overall revenue growth [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.67 billion (+45.33%) and a net profit of 336 million (-46.99%) for 2024, with Q4 revenue at 1.695 billion (+39.38%) and net profit at 70 million (-39.71%) [1][4]. - The cross-border e-commerce business showed strong growth, with revenue reaching 2.42 billion (+154.8%) in 2024, and the company expanded its overseas warehouse presence to 21 locations [2][4]. - The overall gross margin decreased to 29.1% (-7.4 percentage points) and net margin to 5.9% (-10.3 percentage points) due to increased operational costs and investments in new business models [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 56.70 billion, with a significant increase of 45.33% compared to the previous year. However, the net profit saw a decline of 46.99% to 3.36 billion [1][5]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 29.1%, down from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 5.9% [3][5]. Business Segments - The overseas warehouse business generated 24.2 billion in revenue, marking a growth of 154.8%. The company has established 21 overseas warehouses with a total area of 662,000 square meters [2][4]. - The independent e-commerce platform performed well, contributing 8.2 billion (+22.0%) to the total cross-border e-commerce revenue of 20.3 billion (+14.3%) [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 360 million, 448 million, and 535 million respectively, reflecting a growth of 7%, 24%, and 19% year-on-year [4][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 14, 11, and 9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5].