证券代码：300729 证券简称：乐歌股份 乐歌人体工学科技股份有限公司 投资者调研接待记录表 编号：2025-004TZZ 投资者关系活动 类别 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 业绩说明会 新闻发布会 □路演活动 现场参观 其他（请文字说明） 电话会议 参与单位名称及 人员姓名 具体参与单位人员见附件 时间 2025 年 8 月 27 日（周三） 10:30-11:30 地点 宁波市鄞州区首南街道学士路 436 号乐歌大厦 上市公司接待人 员姓名 董事会秘书：虞浩英 证券事务代表：瞿奇龙 投资者关系活动 主要内容介绍 投资者提出的问题及公司回复情况： 1. 请介绍下基于目前的贸易环境和消费市场情况，公司对于海外 仓业务的展望和布局。 公司海外仓不仅承载着自身跨境电商业务的货量，也承载着合作 伙伴的信任。每一位客户托付的货物，叠加在一起，形成了如今数以 千万计的出库规模。公司的海外仓业务在仓库耗材、仓库叉车设备和 货架规模化采购、目的港拖车、卸柜，以及尾程发货数量规模上的优 势，使得公司获得更好的议价能力和价格优势，在当下大多数海外仓 企业经营困难且行业竞争激烈趋于集中化的背景下，公司海外仓业务 始终 ...

1H25 业绩略低于我们预期 公司发布1H25 业绩，收入同增29.6%至31.45 亿元，归母净利润同降19.5%至1.29 亿元，扣非归母净利 润同降26.6%至0.79 亿元，业绩略低于我们预期，主因尾程涨价及新仓爬坡拖累海外仓毛利率、分销业 务经营短期承压等。分季度看，1Q/2Q25 收入同增37.7%/22.6%，归母净利同降35.2%/3.9%。 发展趋势 1、供需两旺下海外仓营收延续快增，人体工学新品类加速打造。1）海外仓：1H25 收入同增84.3%至 15.7 亿元，收入占比同比提升15ppt 至49.9%，美国电商渗透率提升及国内跨境企业加速出海驱动下， 公司1H25包裹发件量同增超120%，欧洲市场亦成功开拓，德国海外仓利用率已超70%并实现盈利；2） 人体工学业务：1H25 收入同增3.5%至13.8 亿元，分品类看，人体工学椅、电动沙发、电动床销售额同 增100%，新品类收入占比提升至20%；分渠道看，1H25 跨境电商收入同增9.2%至10 亿元，其中独立站 收入同增11.2%，于跨境电商收入占比达41%。 2、尾程涨价、新仓爬坡拖累海外仓毛利率，新业务调整下管理费用较高。 盈利预 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the transformation of traditional furniture companies towards smart and health-oriented products, exemplified by Yongyi Furniture's ergonomic chairs and smart desks, which are gaining traction in the Latin American market [2] - Yongyi Furniture's exports to the Latin American market have increased by 19.3% this year, with an expected additional growth of 10% in the second half of the year [2] - The company benefits from favorable origin policies under customs guidance, enhancing its competitive edge in international markets [2] Group 2 - Geek Garden Furniture focuses on innovative products in the functional sofa segment, such as an electric sofa that assists users in standing up, which has gained popularity in the European market [3] - The company has shipped over 200 containers of its products abroad in the first half of the year, with a total value of nearly 20 million yuan [3] - Hangzhou Customs supports Chinese smart furniture companies in entering international markets by providing targeted policy guidance and ensuring they fully benefit from tariff reductions under free trade agreements [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 98.57 CNY, maintaining the rating [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company continues to show strong performance with a projected net profit of 4.10-4.60 billion CNY for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.70%-61.23% [1]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas self-owned brand strategy, particularly in North America, with significant progress in the "MOTOGallery" project [2][3]. - The product structure is continuously optimized, with electric sofas showing a revenue increase of 37.13% year-on-year, contributing to overall profitability [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company expects a net profit of 2.16-2.66 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 31.71%-62.20% [1]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is projected at 39.35%, up 5.40 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is expected to be 26.80%, an increase of 5.60 percentage points [4]. Product and Market Development - The company has seen a significant increase in the number of direct retail customers, with the "store-in-store" model successfully implemented, providing stable channel support for growth [2]. - The company has expanded its retail network in North America, with over 500 store-in-store setups in the U.S. and 24 stores in Canada, enhancing brand influence and sales stability [2]. Customer Base and Sales Growth - The top 10 customers have shown growth in procurement amounts, with a total of 96 new customers added in 2024 and Q1 2025, all from U.S. retailers [3]. - The company’s retail channel layout in the U.S. has proven effective, with an increase in both the number of retail customers and their contribution to sales [3]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has maintained good control over period expenses, with a period expense ratio of 8.02% in 2024, down 3.05 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The company’s focus on high-quality brand positioning and innovation has led to a more diversified and stable development pattern [4]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 31.62 billion CNY, 38.50 billion CNY, and 46.31 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.84 billion CNY, 10.36 billion CNY, and 12.32 billion CNY [11].

Group 1: Childcare Subsidy Policy - The childcare subsidy system in China has formed a progressive framework of "childcare support - economic relief - cash subsidies," aimed at reducing care costs and enhancing fertility willingness, especially among low-income groups [1][27] - The government has shifted fiscal spending from investment to improving people's livelihoods, emphasizing the need to optimize the fiscal expenditure structure to strengthen basic livelihood financial support [1][28] - The "localized" nature of subsidies is seen as a refined governance experiment under tight fiscal conditions, serving as an important tool for current fiscal policy with a core consumption stimulation effect based on the "multiplier effect" [1][29] Group 2: Marine Economy and Technology - The marine economy is projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 7.8% of the national GDP, highlighting its significance as a growth driver [3] - The global regulatory framework for stablecoins is accelerating, with recent legislative developments in the US and Hong Kong, which may enhance the internationalization of the Renminbi [3] - Breakthroughs in brain-computer interface technology are paving the way for commercialization, with significant clinical trials indicating rapid advancements in the field [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Maternal and Infant Products - The maternal and infant products market is expected to reach 4.68 trillion yuan by 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 7%, driven by increasing disposable income and consumption capabilities [8][36] - The early education and childcare market is anticipated to expand due to government support, with a focus on integrating medical and educational services [8] - The assisted reproductive services market is projected to grow to 49.6 billion yuan by 2023, benefiting from increased fertility willingness driven by childcare subsidies [8]

Summary of the Conference Call for Minhua Holdings Company Overview - **Company**: Minhua Holdings - **Industry**: Furniture, specifically focusing on sofas and mattresses Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Macro Environment**: Domestic sales are affected by the macro environment and consumer confidence, with offline channels under pressure while online channels show slight growth [2][6] 2. **Sales Strategy**: The company plans to increase store presence in first and second-tier cities and expand online brand stores to enhance distribution capabilities [2][6] 3. **Government Subsidy Policy**: The impact of government subsidy policies on performance has weakened due to long replacement cycles for sofas, high unit prices, and demand exhaustion [2][5] 4. **Product Performance**: Functional sofas perform well, accounting for over 70% of sales, while mattresses face challenges due to longer replacement cycles and higher commoditization [2][7] 5. **Market Share**: North America accounts for 26% of total revenue, while Europe accounts for 9%. The company is monitoring potential tariffs from the U.S. on Vietnam [2][4] 6. **European Market Outlook**: The company aims for double-digit growth in Europe, benefiting from lower gross margins, low interest rates, and reduced shipping costs [2][15] 7. **Profitability Goals**: The company aims to maintain stable gross and net profit margins, supported by economies of scale and declining raw material costs [2][19] 8. **Sales Performance**: Domestic sales are projected to remain flat in 2025, with challenges in both online and offline channels [2][12] 9. **Store Expansion Plans**: The company plans to open 300 new stores in first and second-tier cities, with an average size of at least 500 square meters [2][9] 10. **E-commerce Development**: The company aims to enhance its online presence by opening more brand stores and collaborating with e-commerce platforms [2][11] 11. **Profit Margin Stability**: The company expects to maintain stable profit margins despite global consumer weakness affecting raw material prices [2][19] 12. **Long-term Industry Outlook**: The electric sofa industry is fragmented, with long-term growth dependent on economic recovery and increased consumer focus on quality and brand [3][23] Additional Important Insights 1. **Sales Composition**: In 2024, domestic sales accounted for approximately 60% of total revenue, with a low double-digit decline observed in early 2025 [4] 2. **Challenges in Mattress Sales**: Mattress sales declined by about 10% in volume and 5% in average price last year, indicating a competitive market [7] 3. **Store Profitability**: Approximately 60% of stores are profitable, while 30% break even and 10% incur losses [10] 4. **Consumer Behavior Trends**: The market is experiencing a trend of consumption downgrade, impacting pricing and sales dynamics [22] 5. **Innovation in Products**: The company is introducing new features in products, such as mini-fridges and sound systems, particularly appealing to U.S. consumers [24]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the cross-border e-commerce industry, particularly the impact of US-China trade tensions on companies like Zhiyou Technology and Lega Co., Ltd. [1][3][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Impact of US-China Trade Tensions**: Initial trade frictions significantly affected cross-border e-commerce, especially for multi-category premium e-commerce reliant on Chinese supply chains. The shift of supply chains to Southeast Asia is time-consuming, and the cost burden is passed downstream, raising market concerns [1][4]. - **Small Package Tariff Adjustments**: Although the tariff rate on small packages has decreased from 120% to 54%, the total tariff remains unchanged at $100, keeping export costs high for small items, particularly in apparel. The US controls this tariff rate, making negotiations for further reductions unlikely [5]. - **Growth Opportunities**: Current market conditions present growth opportunities in B2C large durable goods, B2B models, and overseas warehouse operations. The online penetration rate for large home goods is increasing, and small B customers are demanding direct sales from manufacturers [6][7]. - **Zhiyou Technology's Market Position**: Zhiyou Technology has a strong brand and channel advantage in the European market, which can be replicated for large item expansions. The company expects gradual recovery in the US market through price adjustments despite tariff impacts [8][9]. - **Lega Co., Ltd.'s Development**: Lega Co., Ltd. specializes in ergonomic products and has seen good growth in its independent site. The company plans to expand into electric sofas and beds, with expectations of improved profitability by 2025 [10]. Additional Important Insights - **Resilience of Cross-Border E-commerce**: The resilience of cross-border e-commerce companies is attributed to their control over channels and the ability to quickly adapt product offerings based on consumer demand. This positions them to better withstand external risks [2]. - **Market Expectations for Financial Performance**: Market expectations for Zhiyou Technology's revenue in 2025 are around 410 million yuan, while Lega Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve approximately 400 million yuan in profit. These forecasts are based on assumptions of damage to the US market, indicating potential for upside surprises [3][10]. - **Inventory Management**: Many cross-border e-commerce companies have sufficient overseas inventory, which mitigates the impact of tariffs and allows for continued sales during periods of heightened tariffs [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the cross-border e-commerce sector.

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Lege Co., Ltd. (乐歌股份) has experienced significant growth in its overseas warehouse business, although its profitability is temporarily under pressure. The company maintains a "buy" rating despite the challenges faced in the cross-border e-commerce sector [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.67 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 45.3%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 340 million yuan, down 47.0% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.54 billion yuan, an increase of 37.7%, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, down 35.2% [2]. - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards due to increased competition and trade friction, with expected net profits of 363 million yuan, 439 million yuan, and 525 million yuan respectively [2]. Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 29.1%, a decrease of 7.4 percentage points, while the net profit margin fell to 5.9%, down 10.3 percentage points [3]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 25.9%, a decline of 5.4 percentage points, with a net profit margin of 3.4%, down 3.8 percentage points [3]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to several factors, including reduced non-recurring gains from overseas warehouse sales, increased R&D investments, and high shipping costs impacting cross-border e-commerce profits [3]. Business Segment Performance - The overseas warehouse business generated revenue of 2.42 billion yuan in 2024, a remarkable increase of 154.8%, with a gross margin of 10.4% [4]. - The cross-border e-commerce segment achieved revenue of 2.03 billion yuan, up 14.3%, with independent site revenue growing by 22.0% to 820 million yuan [4]. - The company has established a diversified sales model covering various channels, and its production capacity for linear drive lift systems has reached 2.5 million sets annually, leading the global market [4]. Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about future growth driven by increasing e-commerce penetration in the U.S. and strengthening brand power of Chinese cross-border e-commerce [4]. - The dual growth engines of cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouses are expected to continue driving overall revenue growth [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.67 billion (+45.33%) and a net profit of 336 million (-46.99%) for 2024, with Q4 revenue at 1.695 billion (+39.38%) and net profit at 70 million (-39.71%) [1][4]. - The cross-border e-commerce business showed strong growth, with revenue reaching 2.42 billion (+154.8%) in 2024, and the company expanded its overseas warehouse presence to 21 locations [2][4]. - The overall gross margin decreased to 29.1% (-7.4 percentage points) and net margin to 5.9% (-10.3 percentage points) due to increased operational costs and investments in new business models [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 56.70 billion, with a significant increase of 45.33% compared to the previous year. However, the net profit saw a decline of 46.99% to 3.36 billion [1][5]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 29.1%, down from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 5.9% [3][5]. Business Segments - The overseas warehouse business generated 24.2 billion in revenue, marking a growth of 154.8%. The company has established 21 overseas warehouses with a total area of 662,000 square meters [2][4]. - The independent e-commerce platform performed well, contributing 8.2 billion (+22.0%) to the total cross-border e-commerce revenue of 20.3 billion (+14.3%) [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 360 million, 448 million, and 535 million respectively, reflecting a growth of 7%, 24%, and 19% year-on-year [4][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 14, 11, and 9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.548 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 683 million yuan, up 67.64% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 699 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.78%, with a net profit of 252 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 197.20% year-on-year [1] - The strong performance in Q4 is attributed to favorable exchange rates, interest income, and an increase in the proportion of high-margin new products [1] - The company has successfully expanded its customer base, adding 96 new clients, with 9 out of the top 10 clients increasing their purchase amounts significantly [2] - The "store-in-store" model has been implemented, with over 500 locations in the US and 24 in Canada, enhancing product visibility and sales of high-margin products [2] - The company has established a strong overseas production capacity, with approximately 90.5% of its revenue coming from the US and 84.0% from exports through Vietnam, minimizing the impact of tariffs [3] - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 was 54.3%, an increase of 14.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 36.1%, up 17.9 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s operating cash flow for Q4 2024 was 63 million yuan, showing a decline compared to the previous year [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 indicate net profits of 780 million, 900 million, and 1.048 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.8X, 12.8X, and 11.0X [4] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 1.921 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 31.4% [6] - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 407 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.8% [6] - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 33.6%, with a projected increase to 39.4% in 2024 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2023 was 13.6%, expected to rise to 19.1% in 2024 [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 2.43 yuan, projected to increase to 4.08 yuan in 2024 [6]