1H25 业绩略低于我们预期 公司发布1H25 业绩，收入同增29.6%至31.45 亿元，归母净利润同降19.5%至1.29 亿元，扣非归母净利 润同降26.6%至0.79 亿元，业绩略低于我们预期，主因尾程涨价及新仓爬坡拖累海外仓毛利率、分销业 务经营短期承压等。分季度看，1Q/2Q25 收入同增37.7%/22.6%，归母净利同降35.2%/3.9%。 发展趋势 1、供需两旺下海外仓营收延续快增，人体工学新品类加速打造。1）海外仓：1H25 收入同增84.3%至 15.7 亿元，收入占比同比提升15ppt 至49.9%，美国电商渗透率提升及国内跨境企业加速出海驱动下， 公司1H25包裹发件量同增超120%，欧洲市场亦成功开拓，德国海外仓利用率已超70%并实现盈利；2） 人体工学业务：1H25 收入同增3.5%至13.8 亿元，分品类看，人体工学椅、电动沙发、电动床销售额同 增100%，新品类收入占比提升至20%；分渠道看，1H25 跨境电商收入同增9.2%至10 亿元，其中独立站 收入同增11.2%，于跨境电商收入占比达41%。 2、尾程涨价、新仓爬坡拖累海外仓毛利率，新业务调整下管理费用较高。 盈利预 ...

证券研究报告 梦百合 (603313 CH) 内外贸营收稳增，利润符合预期 | 华泰研究 | | | 中报点评 | | 投资评级(维持): | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 8 月 | 26 日│中国内地 | | 家居用品 | 目标价(人民币): | 10.81 | 公司发布 2025 年半年报：1H25 公司实现营收 43.16 亿元/同比+9.4%；归 母净利润 1.15 亿元/同比+118%，符合业绩预告指引（归母净利润 1.0~1.2 亿元）。其中 Q2 实现营收 22.73 亿元/同比+6.8%，归母净利润 5583 万元 /同比+70.4%。公司利润端显著改善，我们判断主要原因有：1）记忆绵床 垫、记忆绵枕等重点品类毛利率同比提升；2）国内自主品牌建设和海外 OBM 转型，业务结构持续改善；3）信用减值损失计提较去年同期减少。展望后 续：1）全球化产能布局领先，北美本土产能优势突出，欧洲市场积极拓展， 收入稳增可期；2）国内发力品牌及渠道建设，记忆棉品类在内销家居企业 中具备独特性，看好公司未来内外贸发展，维 ...

单位：万元 币种：人民币 销售渠道 主营业务收入 主营业务成本 毛利率 （%） 主营业务收入比 上年同期增减 （%） 主营业务成本比 上年同期增减 （%） 毛利率比上 年同期增减 （%） 门店合计 126,729.45 63,557.41 49.85 2.55 1.75 0.40 直营店 108,112.78 52,452.87 51.48 1.87 3.61 -0.82 其中：境内销售 10,543.39 4,170.85 60.44 11.14 8.02 1.14 其中：境外销售 97,569.39 48,282.02 50.52 0.96 3.25 -1.09 经销店 18,616.67 11,104.54 40.35 6.68 -6.22 8.21 其中：境内销售 18,616.67 11,104.54 40.35 6.68 -6.22 8.21 其中：境外销售 线上销售 117,014.58 59,557.44 49.10 57.40 44.15 4.68 其中：境内销售 17,936.54 6,006.42 66.51 15.98 1.01 4.96 其中：境外销售 99,078.04 53,55 ...

Core Viewpoint - The home goods industry is experiencing a significant divergence, with 26 listed home goods companies reporting their performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, where 11 are expected to be profitable and 15 are projected to incur losses [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - Among the 26 listed home goods companies, 11 are expected to maintain positive net profits, while 15 are facing losses, indicating a split in performance within the industry [1][2]. - Notable companies with profit increases include Jiangxin Home, Dream Baily, Wo Le Home, and Haixiang New Materials, with Haixiang New Materials projecting a staggering profit increase of 933.86% to 1229.25% [1][5][6]. - Conversely, 15 companies, including Diou Home, Meike Home, and Qu Mei Home, are expected to report losses, with six of these companies, such as Fenglin Group and Delixi Co., facing their first-ever losses in the half-year report [1][8][10]. Group 2: Strategies for Profitability - Companies achieving profit growth are employing strategies such as market expansion, product upgrades, and cost control [2][6]. - Dream Baily is leveraging a "self-owned brand + cross-border e-commerce" model, anticipating a profit of 100 million to 120 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 90.14% to 128.17% [5][6]. - Jiangxin Home focuses on the smart electric sofa niche, expecting a profit of 410 million to 460 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 43.70% to 61.23% [5][6]. - Wo Le Home is enhancing its mid-to-high-end brand positioning, projecting a profit of 80 million to 99 million yuan, a growth of 76.08% to 117.90% [5][6]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by Loss-Making Companies - The losses reported by companies are primarily attributed to factors such as the impact of real estate clients, weak market demand, and rising costs due to international trade friction [10][12]. - Diou Home is expected to incur a loss of 75 million to 95 million yuan due to prolonged accounts receivable aging and significant expenses related to convertible bonds [10][12]. - Companies like Pinao are facing revenue declines due to a drop in large-scale business income, with projected losses of 11 million to 14 million yuan [10][12]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The home goods industry is witnessing increased market concentration, with stronger companies gaining more market share, while smaller companies are struggling [13]. - Future growth points for the industry include smart home products, health-oriented home goods, and opportunities in lower-tier markets [13].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.10 to 4.60 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.7% to 61.2%, with a median estimate of 4.35 billion yuan, which is a 52.5% increase [1] - The company has optimized its product structure and improved operational efficiency, leading to enhanced profitability despite external challenges such as exchange rate and tariff fluctuations [2] - The company is focusing on expanding its multi-market strategy, with a significant emphasis on the B-end market, as evidenced by the successful performance at the U.S. home furnishings exhibition [2] - The company has over 500 store-in-store locations in the U.S. and 24 in Canada as of Q1 2025, indicating a strong brand presence and growth potential [2] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 1,921 million yuan in 2023 to 4,944 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.4% to 17.2% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 407 million yuan in 2023 to 1,313 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 21.8% to 17.5% [4] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to improve from 33.6% in 2023 to 40.6% in 2027, indicating better cost management and pricing power [4] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 46.39 in 2023 to 14.39 in 2027, suggesting a potential increase in valuation attractiveness over time [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 98.57 CNY, maintaining the rating [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company continues to show strong performance with a projected net profit of 4.10-4.60 billion CNY for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.70%-61.23% [1]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas self-owned brand strategy, particularly in North America, with significant progress in the "MOTOGallery" project [2][3]. - The product structure is continuously optimized, with electric sofas showing a revenue increase of 37.13% year-on-year, contributing to overall profitability [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company expects a net profit of 2.16-2.66 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 31.71%-62.20% [1]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is projected at 39.35%, up 5.40 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is expected to be 26.80%, an increase of 5.60 percentage points [4]. Product and Market Development - The company has seen a significant increase in the number of direct retail customers, with the "store-in-store" model successfully implemented, providing stable channel support for growth [2]. - The company has expanded its retail network in North America, with over 500 store-in-store setups in the U.S. and 24 stores in Canada, enhancing brand influence and sales stability [2]. Customer Base and Sales Growth - The top 10 customers have shown growth in procurement amounts, with a total of 96 new customers added in 2024 and Q1 2025, all from U.S. retailers [3]. - The company’s retail channel layout in the U.S. has proven effective, with an increase in both the number of retail customers and their contribution to sales [3]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has maintained good control over period expenses, with a period expense ratio of 8.02% in 2024, down 3.05 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The company’s focus on high-quality brand positioning and innovation has led to a more diversified and stable development pattern [4]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 31.62 billion CNY, 38.50 billion CNY, and 46.31 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.84 billion CNY, 10.36 billion CNY, and 12.32 billion CNY [11].

Group 1 - The Chinese national team achieved remarkable success in various international competitions, winning a total of 37 gold, 24 silver, and 21 bronze medals, highlighting the importance of scientific training and comprehensive logistical support, particularly in sleep management [1] - Serta, as the exclusive supplier of sleep solutions for TEAM CHINA, provided over 17,000 health sleep products, including mattresses, electric beds, bedding, and pillows, with over 90% of the products coming from the Serta brand [1][5] - High-quality sleep is crucial for athletes to recover from intense training and competitions, enhancing muscle repair, immune function, cognitive abilities, and reaction times, thus playing a key role in maintaining competitive performance and preventing injuries [3][5] Group 2 - Serta has been the exclusive supplier of intelligent sleep solutions for various Chinese national teams, including cycling, fencing, and shooting, providing a significant number of professional sleep products for training bases and Olympic preparations [5] - The company has a long history in the mattress industry, having been established in 1931, and has continuously innovated in sleep technology, including the introduction of smart beds and specialized mattress springs [5][7] - Serta collaborates with over 1,300 five-star hotels in China and has established a service network covering over 600 cities and 2,000 retail stores, allowing more consumers to experience advanced sleep technology [7]

Group 1 - The 2025 Shanghai International Elderly Care, Aids, and Rehabilitation Medical Expo opened on June 11, attracting exhibitors from 16 countries and regions including China, Japan, and Australia [1][3] - Shanghai has the highest level of aging in China, with 5.7762 million residents aged 60 and above, accounting for 37.6% of the total registered population by the end of 2024 [3] - The expo features approximately 500 companies with an exhibition area of 50,000 square meters, marking a historical high in scale [3] Group 2 - Innovative elderly care products such as wearable exoskeleton rehabilitation robots and AI glasses designed to assist the visually impaired are showcased, illustrating a vision for the future of elderly care [3][4] - The Chinese elderly care industry is gaining momentum, with significant potential in sub-sectors like rehabilitation care, elderly education, and medical care, as highlighted in a report by JLL [4] - There is a noticeable shift towards affordable personal consumer products for the elderly, moving away from high-cost professional equipment previously used in institutions [4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the cross-border e-commerce industry, particularly the impact of US-China trade tensions on companies like Zhiyou Technology and Lega Co., Ltd. [1][3][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Impact of US-China Trade Tensions**: Initial trade frictions significantly affected cross-border e-commerce, especially for multi-category premium e-commerce reliant on Chinese supply chains. The shift of supply chains to Southeast Asia is time-consuming, and the cost burden is passed downstream, raising market concerns [1][4]. - **Small Package Tariff Adjustments**: Although the tariff rate on small packages has decreased from 120% to 54%, the total tariff remains unchanged at $100, keeping export costs high for small items, particularly in apparel. The US controls this tariff rate, making negotiations for further reductions unlikely [5]. - **Growth Opportunities**: Current market conditions present growth opportunities in B2C large durable goods, B2B models, and overseas warehouse operations. The online penetration rate for large home goods is increasing, and small B customers are demanding direct sales from manufacturers [6][7]. - **Zhiyou Technology's Market Position**: Zhiyou Technology has a strong brand and channel advantage in the European market, which can be replicated for large item expansions. The company expects gradual recovery in the US market through price adjustments despite tariff impacts [8][9]. - **Lega Co., Ltd.'s Development**: Lega Co., Ltd. specializes in ergonomic products and has seen good growth in its independent site. The company plans to expand into electric sofas and beds, with expectations of improved profitability by 2025 [10]. Additional Important Insights - **Resilience of Cross-Border E-commerce**: The resilience of cross-border e-commerce companies is attributed to their control over channels and the ability to quickly adapt product offerings based on consumer demand. This positions them to better withstand external risks [2]. - **Market Expectations for Financial Performance**: Market expectations for Zhiyou Technology's revenue in 2025 are around 410 million yuan, while Lega Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve approximately 400 million yuan in profit. These forecasts are based on assumptions of damage to the US market, indicating potential for upside surprises [3][10]. - **Inventory Management**: Many cross-border e-commerce companies have sufficient overseas inventory, which mitigates the impact of tariffs and allows for continued sales during periods of heightened tariffs [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within the cross-border e-commerce sector.

Core Viewpoint - The company, Dream Lily Home Technology Co., Ltd., is preparing for its 2024 annual shareholder meeting, focusing on maintaining shareholder rights and ensuring orderly proceedings. The company reported a revenue of 8.449 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.94%, but a net loss of 151 million yuan, a decrease of 242.04% compared to the previous year [4][24]. Group 1: Company Overview - Dream Lily Home Technology Co., Ltd. aims to enhance its global market competitiveness and accelerate market expansion [4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 14.36 billion yuan from its ODM business, marking a year-on-year growth of 48.72% [4]. - The company has established a strong partnership with major European clients, contributing to the growth of its ODM business [4]. Group 2: Market Performance - The European market has seen continuous double-digit growth in the company's main business revenue for two consecutive years [4]. - The North American market has stabilized, with a reduction in revenue decline by 12.20 percentage points compared to the previous year [5]. - The company's online brand EGOHOME ranked among the top 20 best-selling mattress products on Amazon [5]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its ODM and OBM business models, with plans to strengthen regional market development and expand its customer base [11]. - The company aims to promote its brand internationally, particularly in the U.S. market, leveraging local supply chain advantages [11]. - The company plans to optimize its offline channels and enhance brand awareness through various marketing strategies [12]. Group 4: Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -151 million yuan for 2024, with a significant decrease in profitability [25]. - The total assets of the company decreased by 4.40%, with current assets amounting to 442.29 million yuan [24]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was -395.10 million yuan, a decrease of 8.87% compared to the previous year [24]. Group 5: Governance and Compliance - The company’s supervisory board has conducted regular meetings to ensure compliance with legal and regulatory requirements [20]. - The supervisory board has confirmed that the company’s financial management and internal controls are sound and comply with relevant regulations [22][23]. - The company has adhered to proper procedures regarding related party transactions and external guarantees [22].