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美股牛市后期信号显现:投资者担心踏空
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 11:33
Group 1 - Investors are increasingly concerned about missing out on potential year-end gains despite worries about a stock market bubble, as indicated by rising bullish options costs [1] - The S&P 500 index has recently reached historical highs, prompting a decrease in the cost of downside protection, which is typical behavior in the late stages of a bull market [1] - The latest market momentum is driven by continued investments in artificial intelligence and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, amidst threats of a government shutdown and a weakening labor market [1] Group 2 - Bullish investors are placing significant bets on the S&P 500 index rising an additional 11%, with some trades speculating on the index reaching 7400 or 7500 points by year-end [2] - Despite the bullish sentiment, there are concerns about the risks associated with chasing gains, and investors are advised to maintain downside hedges, even though the costs have impacted returns [2] - The low Cboe Volatility Index suggests that any market pullback could lead to rapid and significant de-risking by funds, emphasizing the importance of maintaining hedging positions [2] Group 3 - Investors looking to chase further gains are advised to consider buying call spreads instead of over-allocating to high-valuation tech stocks, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and AI [4] - For those unable to trade derivatives, mutual funds and ETFs that limit upside potential while protecting against downside losses are recommended [4] - A mutual fund offered by Gateway Investment Advisers, which sells call options and buys put options on the S&P 500, has attracted $219 million since July, indicating a willingness among investors to sacrifice some upside for protection [4]