转债条款博弈

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关注即将到来的新一波转债条款博弈浪潮
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-09-21 13:04
Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Views - In October 2025, the intensity of convertible bond clause games may rise again. There are 47 convertible bonds whose non - downward - revision cooling periods end in October, significantly higher than August - September. And 18 convertible bonds' non - call cooling periods end, the second - highest this year [2][6]. - In terms of downward revision, among the convertible bonds whose downward - revision cooling periods end before October 2025, 6 convertible bonds worth over 2 billion yuan will start downward - revision counting. The proportion of convertible bonds proposing downward - revision announcements in 2025 is 12.5%. As the remaining term shortens and the equity market reaches a historical high, the probability of downward revision may increase. Since late August, the valuation of convertible bonds has declined, opening up price space for some games [2][8]. - Regarding call provisions, 21 convertible bonds end their call cooling periods before October 2025. Excluding Jingyuan Convertible Bond and Jinlun Convertible Bond, the parities of the rest are above 130 yuan as of September 19. With the continued prosperity of the equity market, the call pressure on individual bonds is not low. The convertible bond market scale is about to fall below 60 billion yuan, and the supply - demand contradiction persists, so the valuation may be strongly supported [2][13]. - As the equity market's rise slows down and the convertible bond valuation remains high, alpha returns from convertible bonds become more important. Investors may pay more attention to clause games. It is recommended to cherish the window period and select relevant targets from the clause + theme dimensions, especially those with certain demands and price space [2][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Attention to the upcoming wave of convertible bond clause games - In October 2025, there are 47 convertible bonds whose non - downward - revision cooling periods end, and 18 whose non - call cooling periods end, providing more clause - game opportunities compared to the same period in the past five years [2][6]. - In the downward - revision aspect, 6 large - scale convertible bonds will start downward - revision counting. The probability of downward revision may increase due to factors such as the short remaining term and high equity market position. Since late August, the valuation decline has created game space [2][8]. - For call provisions, 21 convertible bonds end their call cooling periods before October 2025. After exclusions, most have parities above 130 yuan. The call pressure is not low, and the valuation may be supported by the supply - demand contradiction [2][13]. 2. Market trends in a week - As of Friday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 1.30% for the week, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 473.61, down 1.55%. The top - rising industries in the stock market are power equipment and new energy (+3.61%), coal (+3.59%), and consumer services (+3.52%), while the declining industries are comprehensive (-4.09%), banking (-4.09%), and non - ferrous metals (-3.93%) [15]. - No new convertible bonds were listed this week. 79 convertible bonds rose, accounting for 18%. The top - five gainers are Jingxing Convertible Bond (26.23%), Hengshuai Convertible Bond (21.84%), etc. 193 convertible bonds' conversion premium ratios increased, accounting for 45%. The top - five in valuation change are Jiete Convertible Bond (16.86%), Jingke Convertible Bond (14.61%), etc. [17]. 3. Important shareholders' convertible bond reduction - Companies that issued convertible bond reduction announcements this week are Jieneng Fengdian, Tianhao Energy, Jianfan Biology, and Nanjing Medicine [24]. - Many companies' major shareholders have reduced their holdings of convertible bonds, such as Zhejiang Yuesheng Group's reduction of Xingang Convertible Bond [25]. 4. Convertible bond issuance progress - The approval rhythm in the primary market has accelerated. Huichuangda (650 million yuan), Huaxiang Co., Ltd. (1.308 billion yuan), etc. are at the board - of - directors' proposal stage. Tonghe Technology (522 million yuan), Weike Precision (630 million yuan), etc. have passed the general meeting of shareholders. Shenyu Co., Ltd. (500 million yuan), Ruike Da (1 billion yuan) have passed the issuance review committee [26][27]. 5. Private EB project update - There is no progress update on private EB projects this week [28]. 6. Style & Strategy: The convertible bond market style was flat this week - All styles in the convertible bond market were not prominent. As of the last trading day of this week, the excess return of high - rated convertible bonds over low - rated ones was 0.10pct, that of large - amount convertible bonds over small - amount ones was - 0.22pct, and that of equity - biased convertible bonds over debt - biased ones was 0.03pct [30]. 7. One - week convertible bond valuation performance: Convertible bond valuation declined - The convertible bond market's 100 - yuan premium ratio fell to 28.66%, down 0.34% from the previous week, at the 84% historical percentile in the past six months and 92.4% in the past year. The median conversion premium ratio of all - caliber convertible bonds decreased by 1.4pct to 25.91%, and the market - value - weighted conversion premium ratio (excluding banks) decreased by 0.62pct to 39.45% [39]. - For equity - biased convertible bonds, the median conversion premium ratio was 9.71%, down 1.75pct from the previous week, at the 77.3% historical percentile in the past six months. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the median pure - debt premium ratio was 10.1%, down 1.91pct from the previous week, at the 73.9% historical percentile in the past six months [39]. - In terms of extreme pricing, as of the last trading day of this week, there was 1 convertible bond below par value, 0 below the debt floor, and 4 with a YTM greater than 3, at the 9.1%, 0%, and 10% historical percentiles since 2016 respectively [41]. - The median YTM of bank convertible bonds was - 2.68%, 4.56pct lower than the 3 - year AAA corporate bond yield. The median YTM of AA - to AA + debt - biased convertible bonds was - 1.24%, 3.36pct lower than the 3 - year AA corporate bond yield [45]. - The adjusted 100 - yuan premium ratio decreased. The adjusted 100 - yuan premium ratio considering various factors was 14.37%, at the 82.6% historical percentile in the past six months and 66.1% since 2018. The adjusted 100 - yuan premium ratio considering only the debt floor was at the 81.7% historical percentile in the past six months and 29.7% since 2018 [52].