海外市场综述 市场研究部证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 21 日 国内市场综述 震荡攀升 缩量上涨 周一（10 月 20 日）大盘震荡攀升，缩量上涨。截至 收盘，上证综指收于 3863.89 点，上涨 0.63%；深成 指收于 12813.21 点，上涨 0.98%；科创 50 上涨 0.35%； 创业板指上涨 1.98%，万得全 A 成交额共 17513 亿元， 较前一日有所下降。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 26 个行业上涨，其 中通信、煤炭、电力设备及新能源涨幅较大，而有色 金属、农林牧渔及银行则跌幅居前。概念方面，培育 钻石、超硬材料及光模块等指数表现活跃。 新闻精要 1. 中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议在 北京开始举行 2. 前三季度国内生产总值 1015036 亿元 同比增长 5.2% 3. 外交部：中美应在平等、尊重、互惠基础上协商解 决有关问题 4. 工信部原材料工业司组织召开水泥行业稳增长工 作座谈会 美股三大指数全线收涨，苹果涨近 4% 5. 美澳签署关键矿产协议 周一（10 月 20 日），美国三大股指全线收涨，道指 涨 1.12%，标普 500 指数涨 1.07 ...

策略周报（20251013-20251017） ⚫ 市场流动性概况 R007 由 1.4850%下降至 1.4685%，较前期减少了 1.65 个 bp；DR007 由 1.4229%下降至 1.4085%，较前期减少了 1.44 个 bp。R007 与 DR007 利差较 前期减小了 0.21 个 bp。此外，中美利差在本周增加了 0.04 个 bp。 本周资金净流入金额为114.27亿元,资金净流入较上周减少了289.14 亿元，其中资金供给为 808.60 亿元，资金需求为 694.33 亿元。具体来看， 资金供给减少了 45.59 亿元，其中融资净买入减少了 600.93 亿元，股票分 红增加了 393.05 亿元，股票型 ETF 净申赎增加了 113.41 亿元，股票型基 金与混合基金成立增加了 48.88 亿元；资金需求增加了 243.55 亿元。 ⚫ 行业板块流动性跟踪 本周中信一级行业多数板块下跌，市场风格整体偏弱，板块分化格局 延续。从行业数量看，下跌板块多于上涨板块，跌幅面占据主导。在上涨方 面，银行板块表现最为突出，周涨幅为 4.99%，同时煤炭等行业亦有小幅上 涨。下跌方面，电子、传媒 ...

市场震荡加剧， 主动资金偏好红利类行业 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W42） 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 4 月 27 日 证券研究报告 金工研究 [Table_ReportType] 金工定期报告 [Table_Author] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 吴彦锦 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523090002 联系电话：+86 18616819227 邮 箱：wuyanjin@cindasc.com 周君睿 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523110005 联系电话：+86 19821223545 邮 箱：zhoujunrui@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 量化市场追踪周报(2025W42)：市场震荡加剧，主 动资金偏好红利类行业 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月18日 行业轮动策略周报 CANSLIM 行业轮动策略周度配置建议： 关注钢铁、银行、化工、电新和建筑等行业 本报告对 CANSLIM 行业轮动策略的样本外表现进行跟踪，从多个维度解析 行业景气度情况并最终给出月度行业配置建议，以供投资者参考。 行业轮动因子表现 本月以来（20251009-20251017），券商金股行业变动、超大单资金净流入 金额占比和分析师上调比例因子表现较好，成交量调节动量、PB 和分析师 认可度因子表现较差； 今年以来（20250102-20251017），SUE、分析师认可度和券商金股行业变 动因子表现较好，而成交量调节动量、公募基金持仓行业变动和超大单资金 净流入金额占比因子表现较差。 上月组合绩效回顾 本月以来（20251009-20251017），行业轮动组合收益率-3.56%，同期中 信一级行业等权指数收益率-2.23%，组合超额收益率-1.33%。 今年以来（20250102-20251017），行业轮动组合收益率 14.70%，同期中 信一级行业等权指数收益率 17.59%，组合超额收益率-2.89%。 本月组合推荐情况 我们借鉴 CA ...

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3839.76 points, down 1.95%, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling 3.04% to 12688.94 points [3] - The overall market saw 4781 stocks decline, marking the highest number of declining stocks in nearly a month, with a total trading volume of 1.95 trillion [3][4] - The current market sentiment is characterized by heightened risk aversion, attributed to escalating uncertainties in US-China trade relations, despite the absence of significant negative news [6] Sector Performance - All major sectors declined, but defensive sectors related to dividends, such as banking and agriculture, experienced smaller declines, with the Agricultural Bank of China rising 1.74% to a record high [6] - High-performing sectors earlier in the year, such as power equipment, electronics, and automotive, saw the largest declines, with drops of 4.99%, 4.10%, and 3.74% respectively [6] Policy and Earnings Outlook - The upcoming fourth quarter is expected to bring a series of policy announcements, including the Fourth Plenary Session and the Central Economic Work Conference, which will clarify policy directions for the following year [6] - Investment opportunities may arise from themes such as "de-involution" in new energy and semiconductors, unified markets in consumption and cycles, and marine economy [6] Bond Market - The bond market showed a continued upward trend, with all government bond futures contracts rising, particularly the 30-year contract which closed at 115.87, up 0.74% [12] - The central bank's operations indicate a relatively ample liquidity environment, with a net withdrawal of 244.2 billion from the market, yet overall funding remains sufficient [12] Commodity Market - Precious metals continued to show strength, with gold prices reaching a new high, peaking at 1001 CNY per gram, driven by risk aversion and policy expectations [12][10] - The energy sector faced downward pressure due to rising oil inventories and production levels, with the US EIA reporting an increase of 3.524 million barrels in crude oil inventories [11] Trading Hotspots - Key investment themes include precious metals driven by central bank purchases and anticipated Fed rate cuts, artificial intelligence due to increased capital expenditures by tech giants, and domestic chip production driven by technological breakthroughs [13] - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from RMB appreciation and market style shifts, while brokerage firms may see increased activity due to active trading and potential changes in trading regulations [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Long - term bullish: Stock index, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, nickel (with a relatively advantageous selling put option strategy), lithium carbonate, iron ore (relatively strong in the black metal industry chain), hot - rolled coil (with a short - long position with a stop - loss line), floating glass [3][5][6] - Bearish: Treasury bonds, alumina, polyolefin, cotton [3][5][10] - Cautious bullish: Iron ore, coke, floating glass [6][8] - Cautious bearish: Soda ash [8] - Sideways: Industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, crude oil, methanol, rubber [6][8][10] 2. Core Views - The positive factors in the technology sector continue to ferment, and the market sentiment is positive. The technology - growth style of the stock market is expected to continue. The long position of IC can be held. The bond market continues to be weak, and the long - term callback risk is more significant [3]. - For precious metals, although the short - term Fed rate - cut expectations fluctuate, the long - term logic of rising gold and silver prices remains clear. The long positions of gold AU2512 and silver AG2512 can be held, and new orders can be added on dips [5]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, the supply of copper is tight, and the upward trend may continue before the holiday; the price of aluminum has a solid support, and the short - position pattern of alumina is clear; the fundamentals of nickel are weak, but there is support at the bottom [5]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply and demand are both strong, and there is support at the bottom of the price; industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are expected to continue the sideways - weak pattern [6]. - In the steel and ore sector, rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a sideways pattern, and iron ore is relatively strong. The strategies for each variety vary [6][8]. - For coal and coke, the price of coking coal is expected to rise slightly, and the price of coke is in a sideways pattern [8]. - In the soda ash and glass sector, soda ash is expected to fluctuate in a range, and floating glass can be bought on dips [8]. - Crude oil rebounds in the short - term due to geopolitical disturbances, but there is still pressure from oversupply [8]. - Methanol is in a sideways pattern, and the focus is on the change in arrival volume; polyolefin is likely to decline, and the strategy of going long on the L - PP spread can be considered; cotton continues to be weak; rubber is in a sideways pattern [10]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Futures - The positive factors in the technology sector continue to ferment, and the market sentiment is positive. On Wednesday, the stock index opened low and closed high. The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index reached new stage highs. The turnover of the A - share market was 2.35 trillion yuan (previous value: 2.52 trillion yuan). The electronics, power equipment, and new energy sectors led the gains, while the banking, coal, and communication sectors declined slightly. In the stock index futures, IC and IM rose more than the spot index, and the basis strengthened significantly. The long - term positive factors in the chip and AI chains are numerous, and the technology - growth style of the stock market is expected to continue. The long position of IC can be held [3]. - The bond market continues to be weak, and the redemption concern intensifies. Due to factors such as the end of the month, the capital cost has tightened slightly. The stock market is strong, and the bond - stock seesaw effect has weakened. The bond market's cautious sentiment has further increased, and the long - term callback risk is more significant [3]. Commodity Futures Precious Metals - Gold: Although the short - term Fed rate - cut expectations have cooled marginally, the long - term logic of rising gold prices remains clear. The long - position pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the US PCE and GDP data and their guidance on the Fed's rate - cut expectations [5]. - Silver: Against the background of the expansion of global government debt and the weakening of the US dollar in the long - term cycle, the long - term upward logic of silver prices is clear. Considering the Fed's rate - cut and the relatively resilient US economy, the upward elasticity of silver prices may be greater than that of gold. The long - position thinking should be maintained [5]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The supply of copper mines is tight, and the global supply concern has intensified due to the mine accident. The smelting processing fee is expected to be under pressure, and the short - term financial attribute has little impact. The upward trend of copper is expected to continue before the holiday, but the macro - risk of the overseas market during the long holiday should be vigilant [5]. - Aluminum: The price of alumina is under pressure, and the short - position pattern is clear. The price of aluminum has a solid support, and the supply is restricted. The overall trend is easy to rise and difficult to fall [5]. - Nickel: The fundamentals of nickel are weak, but the impact is gradually weakening. There are concerns about the Indonesian mine supply, and there is support at the bottom. Considering the high inventory of refined nickel, the selling put option strategy is relatively advantageous [5]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium carbonate: The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is transferred from the upstream to the demand side. There is support at the bottom of the price, but the expectation of resource - end disturbances is unclear [6]. - Industrial silicon: The supply is increasing, and the demand growth is insufficient. The inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue the sideways - weak pattern [6]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The fundamentals are relatively loose, the supply - side production control is less than expected, and the demand is difficult to be boosted. The price has limited upside space [6]. - Crude oil: Geopolitical disturbances stimulate a short - term rebound in oil prices, but there is still pressure from oversupply. It is advisable to sell on rallies after the callback demand is released [8]. - Methanol: The arrival volume has decreased, and both ports and factories are destocking. The supply is the main factor affecting the price, and attention should be paid to the change in arrival volume [10]. - Polyolefin: The production enterprise inventory has decreased, but the social inventory has decreased slightly. The futures price of PP has a large premium, and it is likely to decline. The strategy of going long on the L - PP spread can be considered [10]. Steel and Ore - Rebar: The spot price fluctuates slightly, and the trading volume is average. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, and there is pressure to destock in October. It is expected to be in a sideways pattern, waiting for policy or fundamental changes [6]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot price has risen slightly, and the trading volume is average. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to be in a sideways pattern, and the short - long position with a stop - loss line can be held [6]. - Iron ore: The demand is stable, and the supply may be affected by the negotiation of long - term agreements. It is expected to be relatively strong in the black metal industry chain, and the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on the near - month contract can be adopted [6][8]. Coal and Coke - Coking coal: The production recovery of origin mines is slow, and the demand for procurement before the holiday is strong. The price is expected to rise slightly [8]. - Coke: The steel mills still have the willingness to replenish inventory before the National Day, and the coking plants promote the first price increase. The price is in a sideways pattern [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: The market sentiment is boosted by policies, but the fundamentals are bearish. The futures valuation has reflected the existing negative factors, and it is expected to fluctuate between 1250 - 1350. The strategy of short - selling on rebounds can be adopted [8]. - Floating glass: The market sentiment is boosted by policies, the production - sales rate has increased significantly, and the price has risen sharply. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, the valuation is low, and it can be bought on dips [8]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The supply of new cotton is expected to be abundant, and the demand has improved marginally but is still insufficient compared with the same period last year. The price is expected to continue to be weak [10]. - Rubber: The demand for rubber has increased as expected, and the impact of typhoon weather on rubber tapping is not significant. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is expected to be in a sideways pattern. Attention should be paid to the weather changes in the producing areas [10].

Market Performance - On October 15, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.22% to 3,912.21 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.73% to 13,118.75 points, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.36% to 3,025.87 points[2][14][18] - The total market turnover was 20,903.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 5,062.00 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day[2][14] Sector and Style Analysis - Among the 30 major sectors, the top performers were Electric Equipment and New Energy (up 2.87%), Automotive (up 2.32%), and Electronics (up 2.12%)[2][21] - The overall market style performance ranked as follows: Growth > Cyclical > Consumer > Financial > Stable[2][21] Fund Flow - On October 15, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 8.53 billion yuan, with large orders seeing a net outflow of 61.36 billion yuan and small orders experiencing a net inflow of 185.43 billion yuan[3][26] - Major ETFs such as the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF saw significant decreases in turnover, with changes of -10.24 billion yuan and -7.96 billion yuan respectively[3][32] Global Market Trends - On the same day, major Asia-Pacific indices closed higher, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.84% and the Nikkei 225 Index up 1.76%[4][36] - In contrast, European indices showed mixed results, with the German DAX Index down 0.62% and the UK FTSE 100 Index up 0.10%[5][37]

10月15日，A股主要股指集体收高。 上证指数涨超1%，重上3900点；创业板指涨超2%，热门科技权重全线反弹。电力设备及新能源、汽车、保险等板块涨幅居前。 Wind金融终端输入命令 WBUY（万得交易快线） 一次开户，基金市场一键链接 国家统计局发布最新物价数据显示， 9月PPI同比下降2.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.6个百分点；9月核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，为近19个月以来涨幅首次降至 1%。 此外，10月15日早上，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0995，上调26点， 为去年11月来首次升至7.10元上方 。离岸人民币兑美元一度直线拉升超100点。 广发证券认为，本次美国政府停摆对经济数据的影响可能更大，金融市场的不确定性加大，加速资金从美国向非美国家流动。美元指数及人民币汇率反应 较上一轮更迅速，美元贬值、人民币迅速升值。跨境回流对国内流动性的支撑预计持续到明年一季度，但年底可能面临购汇额度等因素短期扰动。 海外方面，当地时间10月14日，美联储主席鲍威尔暗示，可能在未来几个月停止收缩资产负债表，他承认货币市场出现了紧缩的"一些迹象"。 鲍威尔还暗示 ，即使政府停摆严重削弱了美联储对经济形势的掌握程度，但仍 ...

- The report introduces the **Diffusion Index Model** for industry rotation, which has been tracked for four years. The model is based on momentum strategies to capture industry trends. It showed strong performance in 2021 with excess returns exceeding 25% before experiencing a significant drawdown due to cyclical stock adjustments. In 2022, the strategy delivered stable returns with an annual excess return of 6.12%. However, in 2023 and 2024, the model faced challenges, with annual excess returns of -4.58% and -5.82%, respectively. For October 2025, the model suggests allocating to industries such as non-ferrous metals, banking, communication, steel, electronics, and automobiles[26][30] - The **Diffusion Index Model** is constructed by ranking industries based on their diffusion index values, which reflect upward trends. The top six industries as of October 10, 2025, are non-ferrous metals (0.98), banking (0.951), communication (0.909), steel (0.877), electronics (0.823), and automobiles (0.813). The bottom six industries are food and beverage (0.137), consumer services (0.297), real estate (0.407), coal (0.445), transportation (0.457), and construction (0.489)[27][28][29] - The **Diffusion Index Model** achieved an average weekly return of 2.59%, exceeding the equal-weighted return of the CSI First-Level Industry Index by 0.70%. For October, the model's excess return is -0.37%, while the year-to-date excess return is 4.60%[30] - The report also discusses the **GRU Factor Model** for industry rotation, which utilizes minute-level price and volume data processed through a GRU deep learning network. The model has shown strong adaptability in short cycles but struggles in long cycles and extreme market conditions. Since February 2025, the model has focused on growth industries but has faced difficulties in capturing excess returns due to concentrated market themes[32][38] - The **GRU Factor Model** ranks industries based on GRU factor values. As of October 10, 2025, the top six industries are comprehensive (6.64), building materials (5.21), construction (3.55), textile and apparel (3.31), transportation (2.99), and steel (2.88). The bottom six industries are computing (-41.87), food and beverage (-35.34), electronics (-34.87), non-ferrous metals (-28.25), power equipment and new energy (-26.61), and communication (-22.71)[33][36] - The **GRU Factor Model** achieved an average weekly return of 2.88%, exceeding the equal-weighted return of the CSI First-Level Industry Index by 1.01%. For October, the model's excess return is 1.67%, while the year-to-date excess return is -6.55%[36]

证券研究报告—策略周报 撰写日期：2025 年 10 月 13 日 策略周报（20251009-20251010） ⚫ 市场流动性概况 R007 由 1.6118%下降至 1.4850%，较前期减少了 12.68 个 bp；DR007 由 1.4376%下降至 1.4229%，较前期减少了 1.47 个 bp。R007 与 DR007 利差 较前期减小了 11.21 个 bp。此外，中美利差在本周减小了 9.92 个 bp。 本周资金净流入金额为415.56亿元,资金净流入较上周增加了678.26 亿元，其中资金供给为 854.19 亿元，资金需求为 438.63 亿元。具体来看， 资金供给增加了 669.81 亿元，其中融资净买入增加了 769.35 亿元，股票 分红减少了 85.49 亿元，股票型 ETF 净申赎增加了 36.95 亿元，股票型基 金与混合基金成立减少了 51.00 亿元，资金需求减少了 8.45 亿元。 分析师：林永绿 资格证书：S0650524060001 联系邮箱：linyonglv@mgzq.com 联系电话：15000307034 联系人：张昊阳 资格证书：S0650124040 ...