主要市场及行业指数表现 过去一个月，国内主要市场指数涨跌不一，国证 2000、中证 1000、中证 500、沪深 300 分别上涨 4.07%、3.71%、3.44%、 0.09%，上证 50 下跌-0.88%。行业指数上涨偏多，在中信一级行业中有 22 个行业上涨，钢铁、建材、机械、煤炭、 国防军工等行业指数涨幅靠前，其中钢铁行业指数涨幅最大，月涨幅达 9.52%。消费者服务、非银行金融、传媒的行 业指数涨跌幅靠后，月涨跌幅分别为-3.37%、-3.48%、-4.22%。 调研行业精选策略三月份的推荐行业为通信、家电、非银行金融、电力及公用事业与电力设备及新能源行业。本期通 信、家电、电力及公用事业和电新行业的基金调研热度有所上升，同时通信、家电、非银金融和电力及公用事业的调 研拥挤度有所下降，因此得到推荐。 本次通信行业得到超预期增强策略和调研精选策略的共同推荐，更加值得关注。 风险提示 以上结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，在政策、市场环境发生变化时模型存在失效的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 行业因子与行业轮动策略表现 二月因子表现不一，盈利与估值动量因子继续保持较好表现，IC 值分别达到 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月06日 风险提示：市场环境变动风险，模型失效风险，本报告基于历史客观数据统 计，不构成任何投资建议，历史股价表现不代表未来股价表现。 核心观点 金融工程周报 金融工程·数量化投资 证券分析师：张欣慰 证券分析师：胡志超 021-60933159 021-60375486 热点追踪周报 由创新高个股看市场投资热点（第 233 期） 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2026 年 3 月 6 日，上证指数、深证 成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 1.40%、2.28%、2.72%、3.44%、3.64%、3.00%、 4.69%、9.10%。中信一级行业指数中电力及公用事业、电力设备及新能 源、建筑、钢铁、通信行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，食品饮料、银行、 商贸零售、医药、非银行金融行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。概念指数 中，发电设备、风力发电、电气部件与设备、电力公用事业、充电桩、 光伏逆变器、新能源等概念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 20 ...

- The report discusses a **quantitative timing model based on volume signals**, which evaluates market sentiment and timing by analyzing volume trends. The model's construction involves assessing the volume levels of major indices (e.g., Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, etc.) and assigning a cautious view when volume signals are weak. As of February 27, 2026, all major indices showed a "cautious" volume timing signal[24][25] - A **momentum sentiment indicator** is introduced, which calculates the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 index with positive returns over a specific period (N days). The formula is: $ \text{CSI 300 N-day Upward Proportion} = \frac{\text{Number of CSI 300 stocks with positive returns in N days}}{\text{Total number of CSI 300 stocks}} $ This indicator is used to capture market sentiment, with higher values indicating optimism. As of February 27, 2026, the indicator was above 60%, reflecting high market sentiment[25][26][27] - A **momentum sentiment timing strategy** is applied by smoothing the momentum sentiment indicator using two moving averages (short-term and long-term). When the short-term average exceeds the long-term average, the model signals a bullish market view. Parameters used are N=230, N1=50, and N2=35. As of February 27, 2026, the short-term line was above the long-term line, maintaining a bullish outlook[27][29] - The report also introduces an **eight-moving-average sentiment indicator**, which evaluates the CSI 300 index's trend by comparing its closing price against eight moving averages (8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233). The indicator assigns values based on the number of moving averages the index surpasses. If the index price exceeds more than five moving averages, the model signals a bullish view. As of February 27, 2026, the CSI 300 index was in a "sentiment prosperity zone," indicating positive sentiment[34][38] - **Cross-sectional volatility** is analyzed as a measure of alpha opportunities. The report highlights that cross-sectional volatility for CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stocks increased week-over-week, indicating an improved short-term alpha environment. Over the past quarter, cross-sectional volatility for CSI 300 and CSI 1000 was in the upper-middle range of the past six months, while CSI 500 was in the middle range[39][40] - **Time-series volatility** is also examined, showing a week-over-week decline for CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stocks, suggesting a deteriorating short-term alpha environment. Over the past quarter, time-series volatility for CSI 300 and CSI 500 was in the middle range of the past six months, while CSI 1000 was in the upper-middle range[40][43]

上周美元有所回落，中美利差"倒挂"程度继续收敛。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回落，通胀预期同样有所回落。离岸 美元流动性边际有所收紧，国内银行间资金面均衡偏松，期限利差(10Y-1Y)收窄。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 市场交易热度有所回升，主要指数的波动率均回落。建材、钢铁、化工、传媒、石油石化等板块的交易热度均处于 90% 分位数以上。钢铁、军工板块的波动率处于 80%分位数以上。 机构调研： 银行、电子、电新、计算机、军工等板块调研热度居前，家电等板块的调研热度环比仍在上升。 分析师预测： 全 A 的 26/27 年净利润预测分别被上调/下调。行业上，石油石化、交运、纺服、机械、电力及公用事业等 26/27 年 净利润预测均被上调。指数上，中证 500、上证 50 的 26/27 年净利润预测均被下调，创业板指、沪深 300 的 26/27 年 净利润预测分别被上调/下调。风格上，大盘/中盘/小盘价值的 26/27 年的净利润预测均被上调，中盘/小盘成长的 26/27 年的净利润预测均被下调，大盘成长则分别被上调/下调。 北上活跃度有所回升，再度净卖出 A 股 基于前 10 大活跃股口径，北上在通信、有色 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread continues to narrow, with inflation expectations also decreasing [2][16] - Offshore US dollar liquidity has marginally tightened, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains balanced, with the yield spread between 10Y and 1Y bonds narrowing [2][23] Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Market trading activity continues to decline, with most indices experiencing increased volatility; sectors such as media, building materials, light industry, and telecommunications are above the 90th percentile in trading activity [3][29] - The volatility of major indices like the Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, and CSI 500 has increased, while the military industry sector's volatility is above the 80th percentile [3][34] Group 3: Institutional Research - Research activity is high in sectors such as banking, electronics, computing, electric new energy, and military industry, with the textile and apparel sectors showing a month-on-month increase in research activity [4][46] Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have adjusted the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026 and 2027, with increases in forecasts for sectors including non-ferrous metals, media, building materials, chemicals, and electronics [5][19] - The proportion of stocks with upward adjustments in net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 continues to rise across the A-share market [5][18] Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has slightly decreased, but there has been a net purchase of A-shares; the trading volume ratio in sectors like telecommunications, electronics, and electric new energy has increased [6][31] - Northbound investors primarily net bought in the electronics, telecommunications, and electric new energy sectors, while net selling occurred in media, food and beverage, and utilities sectors [6][33] Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity continues to decline, reaching a relative low since July 2025, with a net sell-off across various sectors [7][35] - The financing buy-in ratio has increased for sectors like telecommunications and non-bank financials, while net selling has occurred across various styles of stocks [7][39] Group 7: Fund Activity - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in media, computing, and military sectors, while reducing positions in chemicals, automobiles, and electronics [9][45] - The correlation between active equity funds and large-cap growth/mid-cap value has increased, while the correlation with mid-cap/small-cap growth and large-cap/small-cap value has decreased [9][48]

创业板50ETF国泰（159375）跟踪的是创业板50指数（399673），单日涨跌幅限制达20%，该指数从创 业板市场中选取日均成交额较大的50只证券作为指数样本，以反映知名、市值大且流动性好的企业整体 表现。其成分股主要集中于电力设备及新能源、医药、计算机等高成长性行业，整体呈现出显著的高成 长风格与良好流动性。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 野村东方国际证券指出，在流动性改善带动市场情绪走强的背景下，投资者可以对一季度A股表现给予 更多期待。全球通胀及增长情形，以及地缘局势的日趋紧张将进一步驱动周期商品表现。考虑到"十五 五"规划出台，其中对安全韧性的描述（自主可控的投资加码）、新兴产业的商业化（商业航天卫星、 6G、低空机器人）和货币与财政政策的创新空间有望对A股形成积极影响。投资者或可同步增加对中美 两国自主可控题材的关注度，在中国资产中加大对军贸、创新药、AI基建、商业航天与6G基建、工控/ 办公/AI软件等题材的关注。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华金证券发布研报称，四季度陆股通持仓继续上升，主板持仓占比小幅上升，周期板块持仓占比上升。整体来看，2025年四季度陆股 通持仓总规模接近2.59万亿元，较上季度环比增加54.06亿元。Q4陆股通持仓规模最大的行业分别是电新(17.78%)、电子(13.91%)、有色金属(7.18%)；持仓 规模上升较多的行业是有色金属、通信、基础化工，下降较多的行业是医药、食品饮料、汽车。中际旭创、中国平安、思源电气等核心资产和成长类大票 外资持仓变动规模较大，TOP5持股集中度有所下降。该行预计，2026年一季度陆股通资金可能继续加仓核心资产、科技和周期等行业。 华金证券主要观点如下： 一、陆股通资金四季度在周期板块持仓占比上升 四季度陆股通持仓继续上升，主板持仓占比小幅上升，周期板块持仓占比上升。首先，整体来看，2025年四季度陆股通持仓总规模接近2.59万亿元，较上 季度环比增加54.06亿元。其次，变化上：板块方面，2025Q4陆股通资金主板持仓占比较2025Q3小幅度上升1.04pcts，创业板下降0.65pcts，科创板下降 0.39pcts；风格方面，2025Q4周期、成长、稳定风格陆股通 ...

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4134.02 points, up 0.05%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14283 points, up 0.86% [1][4] - The total trading volume of the entire A-share market reached 21,608 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][4] - Among the 30 sectors, 14 sectors saw gains, with electronics, power equipment and new energy, and computers leading the increase, while consumer services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and comprehensive finance experienced significant declines [1][4] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.34%, the S&P 500 down 1.57%, and the Nasdaq down 2.03% [2][4] - Notable declines included Cisco dropping over 12% and Disney falling more than 5%, leading the Dow [2][4] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 3%, with Tencent Music dropping over 10% [2][4] News Highlights - U.S. President Trump is expected to visit China in April, with both leaders maintaining communication regarding trade relations [3][11] - The National Film Administration and the Ministry of Commerce are launching a "Film+" consumption pilot program to boost the film industry's contribution to economic growth [12][13] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting February 13, 2026, it will impose countervailing duties on imported dairy products from the EU [14] - A research team from Peking University has developed the world's first large-scale quantum communication chip network, achieving significant advancements in quantum key distribution [15][16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Synchronize with the market - A" [1] Core Insights - SpaceX's application for deploying a satellite system with up to 1 million satellites has been accepted by the FCC, which aims to support advanced AI models and related applications [2] - The utilization rate of photovoltaic power generation is projected to reach 94.8% by 2025, with wind power utilization at 94.3% [3] - The National Energy Administration announced that by December 2025, there will be 6,190 new registered photovoltaic power generation projects [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Aishuo Co., Ltd. (600732.SH) - Buy - B - Flat Glass Group (601865.SH) - Buy - A - Haibo Technology (688411.SH) - Buy - A - Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) - Buy - A - Longxin Technology (300682.SZ) - Buy - B - Quartz Co., Ltd. (603688.SH) - Buy - A [3][4] Market Performance - The report indicates a 7.4% year-on-year increase in the national electricity market transaction volume by 2025 [4] - The report highlights a stable price trend for polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules, with no significant fluctuations observed [5][7][8] Investment Suggestions - Key investment directions include: - BC new technology: Aishuo Co., Ltd. - Supply-side focus: Daqo New Energy, Flat Glass Group - Energy storage direction: Haibo Technology, Sungrow Power Supply - Market-oriented direction: Longxin Group - Domestic substitution direction: Quartz Co., Ltd. - Attention to space photovoltaic: Liancheng CNC, Dike Co., Ltd., Longi Green Energy, and others [9]

证券研究报告 2026.02.07 量化策略 量化策略周报（467）：静观其变 全周回顾：市场有所震荡，食品饮料与纺织服装强势，价值强于成长，贴水低位震荡 1）市场有所震荡：A 股市场在本周有所震荡，表征市场走势的宽基指数均有所下跌，最终沪深 300、中证 500、创业板指在本周涨跌幅分别为-1.33%、-2.68%、-3.28%。 2）食品饮料与纺织服装强势：本周食品饮料与纺织服装行业表现出色，涨幅在所有行业中排在前两 位，其它表现较好的行业还包括银行、电力设备及新能源、交通运输等。而有色金属与通信行业在本 周表现不佳，跌幅在所有行业中排名前两位，其它表现偏弱的行业还包括电子、计算机、传媒等。 3）价值强于成长：本周价值风格的收益强于成长风格，对应国证价值指数全周下跌 0.53%，而国证 成长指数全周下跌 1.99%。根据中金量化风格因子体系，本周表现较好的因子主要包括分红、低换 手、低流动性、低波动等。 4）贴水低位震荡：本周小盘股期指当季合约周均年化贴水震荡收窄。本周五 IH、IF、IC 和 IM 当季 年化基差率分别为-0.4%、-2.1%、-4.7%和-8.0%。IV 情绪指标本周一收盘发出开多仓信 ...