基础化工板块当前PB已有所修复，但ROE仍处十年低位，东北证券判断2026年将迎来由盈利改善驱动 的周期回升。这一轮复苏可能受到产能周期回暖、"十五五"稳增长政策、行业反内卷趋势以及PPI修复 带来的补库需求共同推动，整体回升过程预计将比2020-2021年更为温和。 兴业证券表示，避险情绪缓解叠加三季报景气验证，市场对于科技成长景气主线的共识有望再一次凝 聚。经历三季度产业趋势密集催化后，三季报仍将是验证新动能景气优势的重要窗口。当前由于避险交 易带来的"再平衡"带动景气主线的性价比问题逐步消化后，景气优势或将再度成为市场聚焦的核心。 大成深成长龙头ETF(159906.SZ)紧密跟踪深证成长40指数，深证成长40指数反映深市成长风格突出的上 市公司的股价变化情况。 数据显示，截至2025年10月31日，深证成长40指数前十大权重股分别为宁德时代、新易盛、胜宏科技、 汇川技术、徐工机械、盐湖股份、华工科技、藏格矿业、亿纬锂能、菲利华，前十大权重股合计占比 69.02%。 相关产品：大成深成长龙头ETF(159906.SZ)，场外联接(A类：090012；C类：019254)。 截至2025年11月13日 1 ...

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-11-11 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:李子凯 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100014 Email:lizikai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《估值风格显著，风格切换迹象显现— — 中 邮 因 子 周 报 20251109 》 - 2025.11.10 《上证周中突破 4000 点，扩散指数行业 轮动调入电力设备及新能源——行业 轮动周报 20251109》 – 2025.11.10 《贵金属回调风偏修复，GRU 行业轮动 调入非银行金融——行业轮动周报 20251102》 – 2025.10.27 《上证强于双创调整空间不大，ETF 资 金持续配置金融地产与 TMT 方向——行 业轮动周 20251019》 – 2025.10.20 《预先调整下大盘很难再现四月波动， 融资资金净流出通信——行业轮动周 报 20251012》 - 2025.10.13 《融资资金持续净流入电子，主板趋势 上行前需耐住寂寞——行业轮动周报 2025092 ...

证券研究报告—策略周报 撰写日期：2025 年 11 月 10 日 策略周报（20251103-20251107） ⚫ 市场流动性概况 R007 由 1.4923%下降至 1.4677%，较前期减少了 2.46 个 bp；DR007 由 1.4551%下降至 1.4130%，较前期减少了 4.21 个 bp。R007 与 DR007 利差较 前期增加了 1.75 个 bp。此外，中美利差在本周减小了 1.91 个 bp。 本周资金净流入金额为 78.31 亿元,资金净流入较上周减少了 245.27 亿元，其中资金供给为 160.23 亿元，资金需求为 81.92 亿元。具体来看， 资金供给减少了 650.02 亿元，其中融资净买入减少了 210.16 亿元，股票 分红减少了 123.08 亿元，股票型 ETF 净申赎减少了 87.83 亿元，股票型基 金与混合基金成立减少了 228.95 亿元，资金需求减少了 404.75 亿元。 本周风格指数绝大多数上涨，周期与稳定风格表现领先，均上涨了 1.85%，仅消费风格下跌，跌幅为-0.70%。从日均成交额占比来看，成长风 格是市场最活跃的板块，占比达到 56.88 ...

摘要 过去一周，国内主要市场指数表现平稳，其中上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 和中证 1000 涨跌幅分别为 0.90%、0.84%、 -0.03%和 0.47%。 微盘股指标监控：综合来看，当前轮动模型由于微盘股滚动 20 天斜率收正，茅指数为正斜率，当前轮动模型发出切 换至微盘股指数信号，中期配置微盘股指数的预期能有更高相对收益。从中期微盘股择时角度来看，目前系统性风险 未明显聚集。对于持有微盘板块投资者建议做好风险控制，以及密切跟踪相对净值、动量及中期风险指标的动态。 过去一周，中国公布了 10 月通胀数据，上下游通胀皆有所回暖。10 月 PPI 同比报-0.21%,较上个月上行 0.2%，PPI 环 比今年以来首次回正，报 0.1%。10 月 CPI 同比报 0.2%，较上个月上行 0.5%。整体来看，反内卷整治以及高质量消费 场景的供给对上下游通胀给予了支撑。而政策端，下一个政策窗口需要到 12 月的中央经济工作会议。国内短期进入 政策真空期。但从近期财政部的《2025 年上半年中国财政政策执行情况报告》，我们能了解到，后续的财政政策仍会 延续积极基调，继续实施提振消费专项行动，对个人消费和 ...

中信建投研报指出，A股和港股情绪指数高位下降，上证50、沪深300、中证500和中证1000的VIX下 降。当前机构关注国防军工和非银行金融行业，通信行业的机构关注度从高位下降。最近一周"石油石 化"、"煤炭"、"钢铁"、"商贸零售"和"非银行金融"行业的机构关注度在提升。当前较多行业处于触发拥 挤指标阈值的状态（流动性、成分股扩散、成分股一致性）。2025年11月看好电力及公用事业、基础化 工、电力设备及新能源、电子和计算机的相对收益。黄金、白银、铜和原油的VIX下降，中长期依然看 多黄金。 ...

Core Insights - The "Fixed Income + Growth" strategy has shown remarkable performance this year, with significant gains in both fund performance and scale, particularly in high-risk asset allocation within the technology growth sector [1][2]. Fund Performance and Scale - As of the end of Q3, the total scale of "Fixed Income +" funds reached 2.5 trillion yuan, an increase of over 770 billion yuan from the end of last year, with the number of products rising to 1,775 [2]. - The average net value growth rate for 1,795 "Fixed Income +" products this year is 5.57%, with 244 funds increasing by over 10% [2]. - The top-performing product, Huazhang Zhilian A, has a net value growth rate of 48.26%, primarily investing in the AI industry chain with a stock allocation of 45% [2][3]. Investment Strategies - The "Fixed Income + Growth" strategy has outperformed other strategies, with a median return of 7.18% in Q3, while the "Fixed Income + Technology" strategy achieved a median return of 10.29% [4]. - High-risk "Fixed Income +" funds with equity allocations of 25% or more had a median return of 6.45% in Q3, compared to 3.13% and 0.78% for balanced and conservative strategies, respectively [4]. Sector Focus - In Q3, "Fixed Income +" products increased their holdings in electronics, power equipment, new energy, non-ferrous metals, and machinery, while reducing exposure to banking, utilities, basic chemicals, and home appliances [4]. - The focus on high-elasticity sectors is expected to continue, with AI narratives and macroeconomic conditions favoring growth styles [5][6]. Future Outlook - Industry experts recommend maintaining a focus on high-elasticity sectors and "Fixed Income + Growth" strategies, emphasizing the importance of selecting quality targets based on valuation and growth certainty [5][6]. - The investment strategy will prioritize sectors such as technology growth, cycles, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods, with an increasing allocation to midstream manufacturing as the economy recovers [6].

Core Insights - Public funds have shown an overall trend of increasing positions in equity assets during the third quarter, particularly in the TMT and power equipment sectors, amidst a rising technology stock bull market [1][3] - There is a notable divergence in the strategies of active equity funds, with some aggressively increasing their positions to capitalize on the bull market, while others have opted to reduce their holdings after achieving certain gains [1][3] Fund Positioning - As of the end of the third quarter, the average stock position of all public funds was 83.28%, an increase of 2.13 percentage points from the end of the second quarter. Mixed open-end funds had an average position of 82.15%, up 1.24 percentage points, while stock open-end funds averaged 90.14%, up 2.26 percentage points [3] - The concentration of holdings among public funds has increased, with stock open-end funds and mixed open-end funds seeing concentration levels rise by 0.94 percentage points and 2.1 percentage points to 56.81% and 57.72%, respectively [3] - By the end of the third quarter, 27 fund companies had products with an average stock position exceeding 90%, with Allianz Fund, Zhuque Fund, and Fidelity Fund having stock positions over 94% [3] Investment Style and Sector Allocation - According to a report by CICC, the market capitalization and growth style preferences of active equity funds have risen in tandem, while value style has seen a significant decline. The concentration of holdings has increased, indicating a more unified market perspective [4] - The TMT sector received an overall increase in allocation during the third quarter, with power equipment, new energy, and non-ferrous metals also seeing significant increases, while reductions were mainly in consumer, financial real estate, and manufacturing sectors [4] Notable Fund Performance - Several funds have significantly increased their positions, with some exceeding 99% stock allocation, including Huaxia Panyi One-Year Mixed Fund and CITIC Construction Investment North Exchange Selected Two-Year Mixed Fund [6] - Funds like Wanji New Opportunities Value-Driven Fund adjusted their holdings from consumer and financial stocks to defensive dividend stocks and domestic technology manufacturing companies, resulting in a stock position increase to 93% by the end of the third quarter [7] - Other funds, such as GF Industry Selection and Jin Xin Quality Growth, also made bold increases in their positions, achieving over 20% gains during the third quarter [8] Cautionary Strategies - Some active equity products have chosen to lock in profits by reducing their positions at high levels, with examples including Huashang Fund's products, which saw a stock position drop to 51% after a significant quarterly gain of approximately 48% [10] - Fund managers have expressed cautious views regarding high valuations in growth sectors, leading to a temporary reduction in positions to manage portfolio volatility, with plans to optimize once market styles shift [10]

Core Viewpoint - In the third quarter, public funds showed an overall trend of increasing positions in equity assets, particularly in the TMT and power equipment sectors, amidst a rising technology stock bull market [1][3]. Fund Positioning and Trends - Active equity funds displayed significant differentiation in their strategies, with some funds aggressively increasing their positions to capitalize on the bull market, while others opted to reduce their positions after achieving certain gains [2][10]. - The overall risk appetite of public funds has increased, with an average stock position of 83.28% by the end of the third quarter, up 2.13 percentage points from the end of the second quarter. Mixed open-end funds had an average position of 82.15%, while stock open-end funds reached 90.14%, an increase of 2.26 percentage points [3]. - The concentration of holdings in public funds has risen, with stock open-end funds and mixed open-end funds seeing increases in concentration by 0.94 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively, reaching 56.81% and 57.72% [3]. Sector Allocation - According to research from CICC, there was a simultaneous increase in the market value and growth style preference of active equity funds in the third quarter, while the value style saw a notable decline. The TMT sector received an overall increase in allocation, with power equipment, new energy, and non-ferrous metals also seeing significant increases, while reductions were mainly in consumer, financial real estate, and manufacturing sectors [4]. Notable Fund Performances - Several equity funds significantly increased their positions, with some funds exceeding 99% stock allocation by the end of the third quarter, including products managed by Huaxia and CITIC [6]. - For instance, the Wanji New Opportunities Value-Driven Fund increased its stock position from 22% at the end of the second quarter to 93% by the end of the third quarter, benefiting from a shift towards technology manufacturing companies [7][8]. - Other funds, such as Guangfa Industry Selection and Jin Xin Quality Growth, also chose to increase their positions and achieved over 20% gains during the third quarter [8]. Caution Among Some Funds - Conversely, some active equity products opted to lock in profits and reduce their positions as the market approached the 4000-point mark. For example, Huashang Fund's products reduced their stock positions from over 90% to 51% by the end of the third quarter, securing gains from the previous quarter [10].

A H 股市场周度观察（11 月第 1 周） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 11 月 08 日 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 何？》2025-08-03 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周市场整体上涨，价值风格表现突出。从宽基指数来看，本周上证指 数上涨 1.08%，而北证 50 则下跌 3.79%，市场分化明显。风格方面，大盘价值板块 涨幅居前。成交额方面，本周日均成交额为 2.01 万亿，环比下滑 13.46%。行业上， 电力设备及新能源、钢铁、石油石化等周期板块涨幅较大，而计算机、医药等成长板 块则有所回调。 相关报告 1、《当前市场调整是大周期见顶还 【深入剖析】本周市场风格出现明显切换，价值与周期板块表现强势，而成长板块则 有所回调。驱动市场上行的主要动力来自于传统能源与材料行业。一方面，钢铁等行 业三季度盈利大幅改善，为相关板块提供了坚实的业绩支撑。除此之外，煤炭，化工 等板块同样受益于三季度业绩回 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月07日 金融工程·数量化投资 证券分析师：张欣慰 证券分析师：胡志超 021-60933159 021-60375486 zhangxinwei1@guosen.com.cn huzhichao@guosen.com.cn S0980520060001 S0980524070001 热点追踪周报 由创新高个股看市场投资热点（第 218 期） 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2025 年 11 月 7 日，上证指数、深证 成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 0.47%、2.34%、1.45%、2.93%、1.39%、1.36%、 3.49%、8.02%。中信一级行业指数中石油石化、电力设备及新能源、综 合、电力及公用事业、钢铁行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，食品饮料、 综合金融、医药、房地产、商贸零售行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。概 念指数中，万得光伏、钠离子电池、新能源、钢铁、石油天然气、HJT 电池、储能等概念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 ...