每日经济新闻 相关机构表示，科技创新主线持续强化，人工智能、智能制造等战略性新兴产业成为推动指数上行 的核心动力。政策层面，"人工智能+"行动首次写入"十五五"规划建议，技术突破与产业应用加速落 地。在资本市场高质量发展框架下，创业板50作为新经济代表指数，将持续受益于科技创新、产业升级 和制度红利的多重驱动。 创业板50ETF国泰（159375）跟踪的是创业板50指数（399673），单日涨跌幅限制达20%，该指数 从创业板市场中选取日均成交额较大的50只证券作为指数样本，聚焦于高流动性、大市值的龙头企业。 行业配置上偏重电力设备及新能源、医药生物、信息技术等新兴成长领域，以反映创业板市场中具备鲜 明成长风格和较高科技创新属性上市公司证券的整体表现。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 （责任编辑： ...

截至2026年1月19日 11:13，中证全指自由现金流指数(932365)强势上涨1.08%，成分股新华百货上涨 9.99%，中闽能源上涨9.93%，平高电气上涨9.76%，九丰能源，常宝股份等个股跟涨。自由现金流ETF 基金(159233)上涨1.28%，最新价报1.26元。 自由现金流ETF基金（159233）跟踪中证自由现金流指数，相较于传统红利与宽基指数，该指数更聚焦 顺周期行业，在主题赛道资金轮动的市场环境下，可作为底仓配置的工具，助力投资者捕捉经济复苏背 景下的结构性机会。 今日盘面上，电力设备及新能源、石油石化及有色金属等行业为其涨幅主要贡献力量。近期消息面亦对 顺周期板块形成积极支撑： 在当前市场环境下，自由现金流ETF基金（159233）以自由现金流为核心筛选指标，兼顾盈利质量与行 业景气，为投资者提供了一键布局顺周期优质资产的便利工具，备受市场关注。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600938 | 中国海油 | 0.38% | 10.16% | | 000333 | 美的集团 | 0.19% | 7.88% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the ChiNext 50 ETF (159375) has experienced a pullback of over 0.5%, with market attention on the sustainability of the growth style [1] - Huaxin Securities indicates that the growth style represented by the ChiNext 50 Index may have a slight advantage due to a marginal easing of the funding environment and an increase in risk appetite [1] - The ChiNext 50 Index, which tracks the top 50 securities in the ChiNext market based on liquidity and average daily trading volume, aims to reflect the overall market performance of well-known large-cap companies in the ChiNext market [1] Group 2 - The index is heavily weighted in sectors such as power equipment and new energy, pharmaceuticals, and computer technology, showcasing the core characteristics of high growth and high technology content in the ChiNext market [1] - Last week, the marginal easing of the funding environment led to a bullish stock market and bearish bond market, with the growth style continuing to outperform value [1] - The yield on ten-year bonds rose by 3 basis points to 1.88%, and the term spread expanded to 59 basis points, indicating changes in market dynamics [1]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis [1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on market trends, valuation metrics, and style performance without detailing quantitative models or factor construction [1][2][3] - No formulas, construction processes, or backtesting results for quantitative models or factors are provided in the report [1][2][3]

- The report focuses on the "Fixed Income+" (固收+) product, which aims to achieve absolute returns higher than pure fixed-income products, with risk-return characteristics between bond and equity products. The specific scope includes mixed bond funds with average convertible bond positions not exceeding 80% over the past eight quarters and equity positions (stocks + 0.5×convertible bonds) not exceeding 40% on average, with a maximum equity position of 60%[18] - The classification of "Fixed Income+" funds is based on long-term equity risk exposure, dividing them into three categories: conservative, balanced, and aggressive. The classification thresholds are set at 15% and 25% for average equity positions over the past eight quarters[21][20] - The report highlights the growth in "Fixed Income+" fund scale, with a total increase of 7700.41 billion yuan (63.50%) from the end of 2024 to Q3 2025. Among the categories, conservative funds grew by 3695.98 billion yuan, balanced funds by 2101.94 billion yuan, and aggressive funds nearly doubled with an increase of 1902.49 billion yuan[18][21] - The performance of "Fixed Income+" funds from 2020 to 2025 demonstrates strong stability and cross-cycle return capabilities. Even aggressive funds show significantly lower drawdowns compared to equity and convertible bond products. The products exhibit strong return elasticity during equity market uptrends and resilience during downturns[31][35] - The leverage ratio of "Fixed Income+" funds has been declining, from 1.24 at the end of 2023 to 1.10 by Q3 2025. Conservative funds generally maintain higher leverage, while aggressive funds rely more on equity asset elasticity for returns[57][60] - The duration of "Fixed Income+" funds has increased from 1.92 years in 2024 to 3.04 years by Q3 2025, reflecting a strategy to extend duration for bond yield enhancement amid declining bond yields[61][63]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of "bull stocks" in the A-share market over the past five years, highlighting changes in industry focus, market capitalization preferences, and performance metrics. Group 1: Yearly Analysis of Bull Stocks - In 2021, the new energy sector was a fertile ground for bull stocks, with midstream manufacturing and materials contributing 29% and 24% respectively. The market began shifting from large caps to "small high-tech" stocks, with 21 stocks entering the top 100 despite being in the bottom 20% by market cap at the start of the year [2] - In 2022, consumer services, machinery, and electric equipment sectors produced the most bull stocks. A notable trend was the preference for smaller companies, with 83 bull stocks having a market cap below 10 billion yuan at the beginning of the year. The median profit growth of these stocks was 157.99%, significantly higher than the overall A-share growth of 1.38% [3] - In 2023, the TMT sector contributed 50% of the bull stocks, with midstream manufacturing and essential consumption following. The trend towards smaller market caps continued, with only 4 stocks in the top 20% by market cap at the start of the year. The profitability of bull stocks was lower than the overall A-share market, indicating a shift in investor focus towards high elasticity and thematic opportunities [5] - In 2024, the TMT sector remained dominant, accounting for 37% of bull stocks. The number of stocks in the top 20% by market cap increased to 21, showing a shift from the previous year's small-cap focus. Profitability slightly improved compared to the overall market, with a median growth rate of 13.62% compared to 2.05% for A-shares [6] - In 2025, midstream manufacturing contributed 35% of bull stocks, with TMT at 27%. The trend of smaller market caps persisted, with over half of the bull stocks starting the year in the top 60% by market cap [8] Group 2: Market Trends and Preferences - The analysis reveals a significant shift in market preferences over the past five years, moving from a focus on large-cap stocks to a greater appreciation for mid and small-cap stocks. This reflects changing investor sentiment and market dynamics [8] - The profitability and growth metrics of bull stocks have fluctuated, with a notable increase in the emphasis on earnings growth over return on equity (ROE) in recent years. This indicates a broader market trend towards valuing high growth potential [2][3][5][6] - The article concludes that the search for bull stocks should adapt to changing market conditions, suggesting that relying on previous years' templates may not yield successful outcomes in the future [8]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index surged after the opening, breaking the high point from November 14, 2025, and reaching the highest level since July 2015, closing at 4047.37 points, up 0.6% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.69% to 13923.61 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.46% to 3309.76 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index jumped 1.85% to 1429.42 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 567.525 billion yuan, with over 3500 stocks rising [1] Sector Highlights - The brain-computer interface sector continued to perform strongly, with several companies hitting the daily limit up, following a breakthrough in implant technology at Fudan University [3] - Semiconductor equipment stocks showed resilience, with companies like Jin Hai Tong hitting the daily limit up and others like Bei Fang Hua Chuang and Zhong Ke Fei Ce rising over 5%, reaching historical highs [3] - The solid-state battery concept saw significant gains, with Jin Long Yu hitting the daily limit up, as a Finnish company announced the launch of the world's first commercially viable all-solid-state battery [4] - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a rebound, with Lei Ke Defense achieving five consecutive limit-ups, following a capital increase announcement from China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation [4] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities expressed optimism about the spring market, suggesting a focus on growth sectors like electric equipment and renewable energy, as well as domestic demand improvement themes [5] - CITIC Securities noted that the cross-year market may exhibit characteristics of "growth leading and liquor accumulating," with a focus on sectors like snacks and dairy [5] - Huaxi Securities highlighted 2026 as a year of multiple positive factors, with a solid foundation for a bull market, driven by macro policies and improving corporate earnings [6] - Guojin Securities projected 2026 to be the year of recoverable commercial rockets, emphasizing the importance of cost reduction through recoverable technology in the aerospace sector [7] - Tianfeng Securities recommended focusing on cosmetics, gold jewelry, and duty-free sectors, which are expected to grow amid the recovery of high-end consumption [7]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.06% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.01%, while the ChiNext Index opened down 0.45% [1] - The human brain engineering and lithium mining sectors showed significant gains, while commercial aerospace and CPO sectors experienced declines [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 4026.02, up 0.06%, with 1018 gainers and 808 losers [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 13830.30, up 0.01%, with 1318 gainers and 1066 losers [2] - ChiNext Index: 3279.81, down 0.45%, with 650 gainers and 552 losers [2] External Market - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones reaching a record high, driven by strong financial stocks [3] - The Dow Jones increased by 594.79 points (1.23%) to 48977.18, the Nasdaq rose by 160.19 points (0.69%) to 23395.82, and the S&P 500 gained 43.58 points (0.64%) to 6902.05 [3] - Most Chinese concept stocks saw gains, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 0.49% [3] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities anticipates a strengthening spring market, recommending investments in growth sectors such as electric equipment and renewable energy, as well as sectors related to domestic demand improvement [4] - CITIC Securities highlights a "growth first, liquor accumulation" trend in the cross-year market, with a focus on sectors like snacks and dairy that show clear growth potential [5] - Huaxi Securities predicts 2026 will be a significant year for the market, supported by favorable macro policies and improving corporate earnings [6] - Guojin Securities expects 2026 to be the year of recoverable commercial rockets, emphasizing the importance of cost reduction through recoverable technology [7][8] - Tianfeng Securities sees growth potential in cosmetics, gold jewelry, and duty-free sectors amid the recovery of high-end consumption [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities is optimistic about the spring market, indicating a strengthening trend with most broad-based indices showing a rebound in scores and the Shanghai Composite Index entering a bullish zone [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment suggests that the all-weather strategy in January is betting on growth exceeding expectations and increasing stock allocations [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends two main investment themes: 1. Growth style, with a positive outlook on the electric equipment and new energy sectors [1] 2. Focus on the improvement of domestic demand in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan, recommending sectors such as social services, real estate, home appliances, and beverages [1]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for the spring market may further strengthen, with A-share indices showing signs of recovery and entering a bullish phase [2][3] Technical Analysis - The A-share technical scoring model indicates that most broad indices have seen a slight rebound in technical scores, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the bullish threshold [3][10] - The model's performance for 2025 shows a timing return of 12.54%, while the overall return for the Wind All A index is 27.65%, resulting in an underperformance of -15.11% [10] Market Strategy - The macro strategy for January is focused on an optimistic growth outlook, with an increased allocation to equities [2][6] - Recommended investment themes include: - Growth style, particularly in the electric equipment and new energy sectors - Domestic demand improvement themes, focusing on consumer services, real estate, home appliances, and beverages [2][5] Style Timing Model - The style timing model has shifted from neutral to bearish on dividend style since December 22, 2025, favoring growth style instead [4][14] - The model indicates a preference for small-cap stocks, operating in a low crowding zone, which suggests a bullish outlook for small-cap stocks [20][23] Industry Rotation Model - The industry rotation model, which utilizes genetic programming techniques, has identified consumer services, electric equipment and new energy, real estate, home appliances, and beverages as favorable sectors [5][24] - The model achieved an absolute return of 40.34% in 2025, outperforming the industry equal-weight benchmark by 15.88 percentage points [24] All-Weather Strategy - The all-weather enhanced portfolio strategy for 2025 has yielded an absolute return of 13.86%, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.22 and a maximum drawdown of 2.67% [6][34] - The strategy has significantly over-allocated to the "growth exceeding expectations" quadrant and slightly to the "inflation below expectations" quadrant [34][35]