电新、电子三季度外资持仓规模上升 事件点评 投资要点 2025 年 11 月 06 日 策略类●证券研究报告 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 张欣诺 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 陆股通持仓继续上升，主板持仓占比大幅下滑，成长板块持仓占比大幅上升。首先， 整体来看，2025 年三季度陆股通持仓总规模达到 2.57 万亿元，较上季度环比增加 2831.26 亿元。其次，变化上：板块方面，2025Q3 陆股通资金主板持仓占比较 2025Q2 大幅下降 8.47pcts，创业板上升 6.77pcts，科创板上升 1.70pcts；风格方 面，2025Q3 成长、周期陆股通资金持仓占比环比上升 11.80pcts、0.41pcts，金融、 消费、稳定风格分别下降 6.16pcts、3.22pcts、2.83pcts。 电新、电子持仓规模上升，食饮、非银持仓规模下降。（1）持仓上：首先， Q3 陆股通持仓规模最大的行业 ...

11月6日，A股市场震荡上行，科创板领涨沪深两市，电力设备及新能源、有色金属、电子等板块涨幅靠前。截至10点30分，科创50ETF南方(588150.SH)涨 2.35%，海光信息涨7.05%。 国新证券观点来看，科创板的投资逻辑如下：首先，政策层面，国家持续推进科创扶持政策，外汇外贸便利化措施、央企战新基金510亿元募资落地等，为 科技产业提供增量资金及发展环境；其次，行业景气度上，科创50权重较大的电力设备及新能源、半导体等板块受益于全球能源转型及国产替代加速，国内 光伏逆变器、工业金属等高景气细分赛道表现活跃，科创企业盈利修复预期增强；再次，流动性方面，美联储降息周期下全球科技成长板块估值压制缓和， 叠加国内经济回升趋势明确，科创类资产弹性凸显。此外，市场风格上，国内权益市场量价齐升，科创板流动性持续改善，板块轮动中科技成长主线有望延 续强势。建议重点关注科创50ETF南方(588150.SH)，把握政策红利与产业趋势共振下的科创成长机遇。 1138 Roya Capa Canada 2012 Royal Canada Cara Cara Mark 2012 16 6 6 8 e of the 197 ...

报告导读： Q4 风格轮动模型发出小盘、成长信号。 11 月，单因子策略、复合因子策略 推荐配置的多头行业均涵盖通信、电力设备及新能源。 风格轮动模型方面， Q4风 格轮动模型发出小盘、成长信号。 行业轮动模型方面， 11月，单因子策略、复合因子策略推荐配置的多头行业均涵盖通信、电力 设备及新能源。 大小盘风格轮动 Q4 配置信号。 根据 2025 年 09 月 30 日的最新数据， 2025Q4 ，双驱轮动策略得出的综合分数为 -1 ，预测信号为小盘。 价值成长风格轮动 Q4 配置信号。 根据 2025 年 09 月 30 日的最新数据， 2025Q4 ，双驱轮动策略得出的综合分数为 -3 ，预测信号为成长。 行业轮动 10 月表现。 使用行业历史基本面、预期基本面、情绪面、量价技术面、宏观经济等维度的因子对各行业打分， 分别构建复合因子策略及单因子多策 略 。 9 月复合因子策略的 超额收益为 -0.69% ，单因子多策略的超额收益为 -0.93% 。 法律声明 本公众订阅号(微信号: GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称"国泰海通证券") 研究所依法设立、独立运营的唯一官方 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a dynamic balance strategy that considers both win rates and odds, achieving an annualized absolute return of 18.00% and a relative return of 12.00% from January 2015 to October 2025 [2][18] - Recommended industries for November 2025 include non-ferrous metals, electric equipment and new energy, communication, computer, machinery, and electronics [2][18] - The dynamic balance strategy outperformed the benchmark in October 2025 with an absolute return of 1.66% and an excess return of 0.27% [40] Group 2 - The macro-driven strategy has achieved an excess annualized return of 4.87% and a maximum drawdown of 9.51% from January 2016 to October 2025 [3][17] - Recommended industries for November 2025 under the macro-driven strategy include food and beverage, electric equipment and new energy, automotive, basic chemicals, consumer services, and machinery [3][17] - The macro-driven strategy recorded an absolute return of 25.46% since the beginning of 2025, ranking 57.50% among active equity funds [3][17] Group 3 - The multi-strategy approach has generated an annualized relative return of 6.57% since May 2011, with a maximum drawdown of 13.03% [4][23] - Recommended industries for November 2025 under the multi-strategy approach include textiles and apparel, communication, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, electronics, non-bank financials, real estate, banking, and construction [4][23] - The multi-strategy recorded an absolute return of 16.27% since the beginning of 2025, ranking 76.50% among active equity funds [4][23] Group 4 - The report indicates that the October 2025 market saw a decline in the overall A-share market, with the CSI 300 index returning -0.001% and the ChiNext index returning -1.56% [11][12] - Among the sectors, coal, oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and electric utilities were the top performers, while media, automotive, electronics, real estate, and defense industries lagged [12][13] Group 5 - The report highlights the importance of tracking industry crowding indicators, with multiple crowding alerts triggered in the oil and petrochemical, coal, and non-ferrous metals sectors in October [5][53] - The crowding indicators are based on four quantitative factors to assess the risk of future asset pullbacks in various industries [51][53]

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to rise, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened, with inflation expectations increasing [1][14] - Offshore dollar liquidity has generally loosened, while the domestic interbank funding environment remains balanced and slightly loose [1][18] Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has rebounded, with volatility in major indices, except for the Shenzhen 100, also increasing [2][25] - Trading activity in sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, electric new energy, chemicals, machinery, and real estate remains above the 80th percentile [2][25] - The volatility of major indices has mostly increased, with telecommunications and electronics remaining above the 80th historical percentile [2][31] Group 3: Institutional Research - Research activity is high in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, and telecommunications, with a month-on-month increase in research intensity for pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, electronics, textiles, and retail [3][43] Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - Net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026 have been adjusted, with non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, electric power, and public utilities seeing upward revisions [4][21] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025/2026 has decreased [4][17] - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 index for 2025/2026 have been downgraded [4][23] Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded, with a net buying of A-shares overall [5][31] - In the top 10 active stocks, the buying and selling ratio in sectors such as electric new energy, telecommunications, and non-ferrous metals has increased [5][32] - For stocks with northbound holdings of less than 30 million shares, net buying was mainly in the computer, electronics, and chemicals sectors [5][33] Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has continued to slightly rebound, reaching a three-week high [6][35] - The main net buying in margin financing was in electric new energy, telecommunications, and machinery sectors [6][36] - The proportion of financing purchases in banking, media, and pharmaceuticals has increased month-on-month [6][38] Group 7: Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have increased, with net subscriptions in ETFs overall [7][45] - Actively managed equity funds have mainly increased positions in telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electric new energy sectors [7][46] - New equity fund establishment scales have rebounded, with both actively and passively managed funds seeing increases [7][50]

伊戈尔（002922.SZ） Q3 盈利继续改善，海外数据中心和配电展望积极 中游制造/电力设备及新能源 公司发布三季报，2025 年前三季度实现收入 38.08 亿元，同比增长 17.32%， 归母净利润 1.78 亿元，同比下降 15.14%；扣非归母净利润 1.66 亿元，同比下 降 12.71%。 财务数据与估值 会计年度 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E 营业总收入(百万元) 3630 4639 5752 7133 8702 同比增长 29% 28% 24% 24% 22% 营业利润(百万元) 227 348 305 501 669 同比增长 14% 53% -12% 64% 34% 归母净利润(百万元) 209 293 271 446 597 同比增长 9% 40% -7% 64% 34% 每股收益(元) 0.49 0.69 0.64 1.06 1.41 PE 51.6 37.0 39.8 24.2 18.1 PB 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.6 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 11 月 03 日 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值 ...

证券研究报告—策略周报 撰写日期：2025 年 11 月 03 日 策略周报（20251027-20251031） ⚫ 市场流动性概况 R007 由 1.4649%增加至 1.4923%，较前期增加了 2.74 个 bp；DR007 由 1.4110%上升至 1.4551%，较前期增加 4.41 个 bp。R007 与 DR007 利差较前 期减小了 1.67 个 bp。此外，中美利差在本周增加了 14.12 个 bp。 本周资金净流入金额为339.39亿元,资金净流入较上周增加了695.12 亿元，其中资金供给为 810.25 亿元，资金需求为 470.86 亿元。具体来看， 资金供给增加了 218.89 亿元，其中融资净买入增加了 21.18 亿元，股票分 红减少了 272.18 亿元，股票型 ETF 净申赎增加了 316.32 亿元，股票型基 金与混合基金成立增加了 153.57 亿元；资金需求减少了 476.22 亿元。 ⚫ 行业板块流动性跟踪 本周中信一级行业大多数板块上涨，市场风格整体偏强，板块分化格 局延续。从行业数量看，上涨板块多于下跌板块，涨幅面占据主导。基础化 工板块表现最为突出，周涨幅达 ...

2025 年 11 月 3 日 总量研究 Beta 波动提升，Alpha 环境转暖 ——金融工程市场跟踪周报 20251103 要点 本周市场核心观点与市场复盘： 本周（2025.10.27-2025.10.31，下同）A 股延续宽幅震荡，主要宽基指数涨跌 互现，市场量能小幅回升。量能回升背景下，主要宽基指数横截面波动率亦有提 升，市场 Alpha 环境转暖。资金面方面，融资增加额环比前一周小幅上涨，股 票型 ETF 净流入，资金面保持乐观。 近期市场量能虽有提振、但仍显不足，短线仍延续宽幅震荡判断。后市依然看好 "红利+科技"主线，红利或在波动方面占优。 本周上证综指上涨 0.11%，上证 50 下跌 1.12%，沪深 300 下跌 0.43%，中证 500 上涨 1.00%，中证 1000 上涨 1.18%，创业板指上涨 0.50%，北证 50 指数 上涨 7.52%。 截至 2025 年 10 月 31 日，宽基指数来看，上证指数、上证 50 和沪深 300 指数 处于估值分位数"危险"等级，中证 500、中证 1000 和创业板指处于估值分位 数"适中"等级。 中信一级行业分类来看，煤炭、钢铁、建材、 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.11.02 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 分析师 李浩时 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080002 lihs@ctsec.com 联系人 郑惠文 zhenghw01@ctsec.com 联系人 柳婧舒 liujs@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《流动性 | 11 月资金利率能否向下突 破？》 2025-11-01 2. 《高频｜政策加码，能否对冲生产淡 季？》 2025-11-01 3. 《十五五中 的受益 标的 有哪些？》 2025-10-31 核心观点 ❖ 我们预计 11 月市场整体不确定性或有下降，机构加仓概率相对提升。 地缘政治方面，中美谈判有序推进，10 月末釜山元首会晤。机构行为方面， 历史上看险资更偏好在 11 月入场配置，12 月往往减仓，2022 年-2024 年 险资 11 月平均转债持仓环比+3.2%，仅略低于每年 1 月。基于此，我们建 议对 11 月市场环境多一份乐观。 ...

Core Insights - A-share companies' profits showed a year-on-year growth of 5.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, with non-financial profits increasing by 1.7% [2][5][25] - The third quarter saw a significant improvement in profit growth across various sectors, with non-financial net profits rising by 11.4% year-on-year, compared to 3.8% in the second quarter [2][5][7] Performance Growth - A-share companies' net profits for the first three quarters of 2025 were 5.4% for all A-shares, 9.5% for financials, and 1.7% for non-financials [5][25] - In Q3 2025, the net profit growth for non-financial sectors was 11.4%, with a notable improvement from Q2 [2][7] - The revenue for non-financial sectors increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a slight recovery in profit margins [2][5] Industry Performance - The number of industries with profit improvements increased, with 48 industries (37% of total) reporting a year-on-year net profit growth exceeding 20% [15][19] - The TMT sector, non-ferrous metals, and certain midstream industries performed well, reflecting the positive impact of policy shifts [15][19] - The energy and raw materials sector saw a decline in profit share from nearly 40% in 2022 to 30.5% in Q3 2025 [13][19] Economic Segmentation - New economy sectors showed a profit growth of 12.1% year-on-year in Q3, while traditional sectors experienced a reduced decline of -2.1% [11][19] - Upstream, midstream, and downstream profit growth rates were 4.0%, 10.3%, and -3.1%, respectively, indicating a recovery in upstream profits [16][19] - The performance of the consumer sector was weak due to policy rollbacks and weak demand, with significant declines in various sub-sectors [17][19] Profit Quality - A-share non-financial ROE stabilized in Q3 2025, with a slight increase compared to Q2, indicating potential stabilization after a prolonged decline [25][26] - The cash flow situation showed improvements, with operating cash flow remaining at a high level, supporting dividend certainty for A-share companies [31][33] - Non-financial companies' free cash flow to equity ratio maintained at around 5.2%, providing a solid foundation for dividends [33]