Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio **Construction Idea**: This factor captures the buying behavior of large funds by analyzing the proportion of large order transaction amounts relative to the total daily transaction amount[7] **Construction Process**: 1. Use tick-by-tick transaction data to identify buy and sell orders based on the sequence numbers of bids and asks 2. Filter transactions by order size to identify large orders 3. Calculate the proportion of large buy order transaction amounts to the total daily transaction amount **Formula**: $ \text{Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio} = \frac{\text{Large Buy Order Transaction Amount}}{\text{Total Daily Transaction Amount}} $ **Evaluation**: This factor effectively reflects the buying behavior of large funds and provides insights into market dynamics[7] - **Factor Name**: Net Active Buy Amount Ratio **Construction Idea**: This factor measures the active buying behavior of investors by analyzing the net active buy amount as a proportion of the total daily transaction amount[7] **Construction Process**: 1. Use tick-by-tick transaction data to classify each transaction as either active buy or active sell based on the buy/sell indicator 2. Calculate the net active buy amount by subtracting the active sell amount from the active buy amount 3. Compute the proportion of the net active buy amount to the total daily transaction amount **Formula**: $ \text{Net Active Buy Amount Ratio} = \frac{\text{Active Buy Amount} - \text{Active Sell Amount}}{\text{Total Daily Transaction Amount}} $ **Evaluation**: This factor provides a clear representation of investors' active buying behavior and is useful for tracking market sentiment[7] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio**: - Top 5 stocks with the highest 5-day average values: 1. *Zaisen Technology (603601.SH)*: 91.4%, time-series percentile: 99.6%[9] 2. *Annie Shares (002235.SZ)*: 91.2%, time-series percentile: 98.4%[9] 3. *Kangxin New Materials (600076.SH)*: 87.9%, time-series percentile: 99.6%[9] 4. *Guangtian Group (002482.SZ)*: 87.6%, time-series percentile: 100.0%[9] 5. *Zhongtai Chemical (002092.SZ)*: 87.5%, time-series percentile: 100.0%[9] - **Net Active Buy Amount Ratio**: - Top 5 stocks with the highest 5-day average values: 1. *Hot Scene Biology (688068.SH)*: 15.9%, time-series percentile: 100.0%[10] 2. *Lanxiao Technology (300487.SZ)*: 14.5%, time-series percentile: 100.0%[10] 3. *Yilian Technology (301631.SZ)*: 14.0%, time-series percentile: 100.0%[10] 4. *Xiamen Bank (601187.SH)*: 14.0%, time-series percentile: 99.2%[10] 5. *Huamao Technology (603306.SH)*: 13.1%, time-series percentile: 99.6%[10] --- Additional Factor Testing Results - **Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio for Broad-Based Indices**: - *Shanghai Composite Index*: 5-day average: 73.0%, percentile: 59.0%[12] - *CSI 300*: 5-day average: 72.0%, percentile: 33.6%[12] - *ChiNext Index*: 5-day average: 71.4%, percentile: 14.8%[12] - **Net Active Buy Amount Ratio for Broad-Based Indices**: - *Shanghai Composite Index*: 5-day average: 0.8%, percentile: 7.8%[12] - *CSI 300*: 5-day average: 2.6%, percentile: 4.9%[12] - *ChiNext Index*: 5-day average: 3.5%, percentile: 2.5%[12] - **Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio for Industries**: - *Non-Bank Financials*: 5-day average: 78.5%, percentile: 95.9%[13] - *Steel*: 5-day average: 78.2%, percentile: 43.9%[13] - *Electric Power and Utilities*: 5-day average: 77.6%, percentile: 13.9%[13] - **Net Active Buy Amount Ratio for Industries**: - *Non-Bank Financials*: 5-day average: 6.3%, percentile: 0.8%[13] - *Electric Power and Utilities*: 5-day average: 1.8%, percentile: 1.6%[13] - *Steel*: 5-day average: 1.4%, percentile: 9.4%[13] - **Large Order Transaction Amount Ratio for ETFs**: - Top ETF: *Guotai Zhongzheng A500 ETF (159338.SZ)*: 91.5%, percentile: 20.1%[15] - **Net Active Buy Amount Ratio for ETFs**: - Top ETF: *Guotai SSE 10-Year Treasury Bond ETF (511260.SH)*: 25.9%, percentile: 87.7%[16]

证券研究报告|专题报告 金融工程 2025年12月12日 新老经济的平衡 ----2026年A股市场策略展望 证券分析师： 李杨 执业证书编号： S0210524100005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 ➢ 2025年市场表现回顾。2025年，在政策托底下，经济环境逐步企稳。从资产端看，PMI持续位于荣枯线以下，呈现"弱企稳"特点。 PPI同比降幅收窄，CPI整体向上修复，经济结构性复苏催生小盘科技股引领的"快牛"行情。实际经济缓坡向下名义经济向下幅度更 大。负债端实现由"空股多债"向"多股空债"的转变，股债性价比扭转，资金交易逻辑变化。 "固收+"基金规模映射广义资管资金交易 倾向，2024年12月以来固收+基金规模稳步增长，权益持仓向电子、有色、新能源等高弹性板块增配。市场风格加速变迁，从一季 度小盘成长占优过渡到三季度大盘成长估值拔升，高波资产优势凸显，但后续风格切换。公募基金市场维持存量博弈，缺乏增量 ，主动权益基金偏配科技板块。超额储蓄见顶下行，开始流入权益市场。整体上，2025年经济企稳，但负债端状态向增量转换。 ➢ 新经济与传统经济的平衡。 ...

Market Overview - On December 11, the A-share market opened high but closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3897 points before retreating again[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3873.32 points, down 0.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.27% to 13147.39 points[7] - Total trading volume for both markets was 18854 billion yuan, above the median of the last three years[3] Sector Performance - Wind power equipment, grid equipment, aerospace, and medical services sectors performed well, while real estate, textiles, pharmaceuticals, and shipbuilding sectors lagged[3] - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets declined, with notable gains in non-metal materials and wind power equipment[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 16.00 times and 49.52 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years[3] - The current macroeconomic environment is in a mild recovery phase, but the foundation still needs consolidation[3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point level, with cyclical and technology sectors likely to perform in rotation[3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and international relations affecting the economic environment[4]

华安证券指出，创业板50指数成分股主要集中于科技成长领域，其中AI产业链是核心驱动力。分 析师认为，算力需求爆发带动PCB、CPO等硬件环节量价齐升，国产算力替代加速推进；储能链受益AI 功耗提升，锂电材料及能源金属在供需改善下价格持续回升。此外，存储行业因高端产能转移及AI需 求激增进入长期景气周期，DRAM和NAND价格年内涨幅超50%。科技主线中，机器人、游戏、软件等 应用端随技术落地逐步释放业绩弹性，而工程机械等出口链品种在海外需求复苏下维持高增长。整体来 看，创业板50覆盖的科技成长板块盈利增速有望保持30%以上，高景气产业趋势与涨价逻辑形成双重支 撑。 创业板50ETF国泰（159375）跟踪的是创业板50指数（399673），该指数从创业板市场中选取日均 成交额较大的50只证券作为指数样本，重点反映高知名度、大市值规模及良好流动性的企业整体表现。 创业板50指数聚焦于科技成长领域，尤其覆盖电力设备及新能源、医药生物等新兴产业，具有突出的高 成长性和市场弹性特征。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不 ...

市场研究部证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 11 日 国内市场综述 探底回升 走势分化 周三（12 月 10 日）大盘探底回升，走势分化。截至 收盘，上证综指收于 3900.5 点，下跌 0.23%；深成指 收于 13316.42 点，上涨 0.29%；科创 50 下跌 0.03%； 创业板指下跌 0.02%，万得全 A 成交额共 17916 亿元， 较前一日有所下降。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 24 个上涨，其中房 地产、消费者服务及商贸零售涨幅居前，而银行、计 算机、电力设备及新能源跌幅较大。概念方面，海南 自贸港、水泥制造精选及房地产精选等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美股三大指数全线收涨，耐克涨近 4% 周三（12 月 10 日），美国三大股指全线收涨，道指 涨 1.05%，标普 500 指数涨 0.67%，纳指涨 0.33%。耐 克涨近 4%，卡特彼勒涨超 3%，领涨道指。万得美国科 技七巨头指数跌 0.13%，微软跌近 3%，脸书跌超 1%。 中概股多数上涨，阿特斯太阳能涨超 5%，晶科能源涨 逾 3%。 新闻精要 1. 何立峰在京会见世界贸易组织总干事伊维拉 2. 港交所确认与香港证 ...

华金证券指出，电力设备及新能源行业在经历产能扩张、供需失衡后已逐步走出困境，实现供需再平 衡。电池行业呈现利润触底反弹，库存显著回升，资本开支触底反弹且固态电池等新投资方向支撑融资 意愿回升。锂电材料价格企稳回升，动力与储能市场需求旺盛，预计2025-2035年中游材料出货量仍有3 倍以上增长空间；固态电池技术迭代加速，政策推动下有望2027年量产，人形机器人等新兴场景将带动 需求。储能领域市场化交易推进，新型储能装机规模突破100GW，海外AI用电高增进一步刺激需求。 风电行业招标规模景气，风机价格企稳回升，海上风电向深远海发展，漂浮式技术加速落地，预计"十 五五"年均装机增长超80%。行业整体处于盈利修复阶段，细分领域复苏与科技突破（核聚变、固态电 池、AIDC）形成投资主线。 创业板新能源ETF国泰（159387）跟踪的是创新能源指数（399266），单日涨跌幅达20%，该指数从市 场中选取涉及清洁能源生产、储存及应用等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，聚焦可再生能源、电动 汽车、储能技术等前沿领域，以反映具备高成长性和技术创新能力的新能源相关上市公司证券的整体表 现。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the upcoming spring rally is likely to occur earlier than usual due to significant adjustments in November and a late Spring Festival, suggesting a favorable environment for early positioning in December [1][25][39] - Historical data shows that growth-type spring rallies account for nearly 60% of past spring market trends, driven primarily by liquidity easing and technology policy expectations [2][55] - The cyclical spring rally, while less frequent, still holds strong predictive value, with approximately 40% of past rallies characterized by inventory replenishment and inflation expectations [2][60] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that both technology and cyclical sectors can thrive simultaneously, suggesting a dual-driven approach to investment strategies [4][48] - Key sectors for investment include technology (military, media, AI applications) and cyclical industries (solar, chemicals, steel), which are expected to benefit from improving PPI and anti-involution policies [4][60] - The report highlights that the spring rally is not confined to the spring season, as it can be influenced by macroeconomic expectations, liquidity improvements, and institutional behavior [25][34] Group 3 - The report outlines that the spring rally typically features a strong focus on high beta stocks, with significant sector rotation reflecting the market's anticipation of economic trends and policy directions [49][55] - It notes that the performance of growth stocks is particularly sensitive to liquidity conditions and technology policy, making them prime candidates for investment during the spring rally [56][59] - The cyclical rally is characterized by a recovery in resource prices and manufacturing sectors, driven by inventory replenishment and improving economic conditions [60]

- The report introduces a quantitative model based on the "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify investment hotspots. The calculation formula is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price hits a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of fallback [11][19][26] - The model evaluates the effectiveness of momentum and trend-following strategies, referencing studies by George (2004), William O'Neil's CANSLIM framework, and Mark Minervini's "Stock Market Wizard," which emphasize the importance of stocks near their 52-week highs as potential leaders in market uptrends [11][18][21] - A screening method for "stable new high stocks" is introduced, focusing on factors such as analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path smoothness, and sustained new highs. Key metrics include: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - Relative stock strength: Top 20% in 250-day returns - Price path smoothness: Evaluated using metrics like price displacement ratio - Sustained new highs: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Trend continuation: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days [26][28][29] - The report identifies 41 "stable new high stocks" based on the above criteria, with the majority belonging to cyclical and manufacturing sectors. Notable industries include non-ferrous metals and machinery [29][30][32] - Backtesting results show that cyclical and manufacturing sectors have the highest number of stocks achieving new highs, with cyclical stocks leading in non-ferrous metals and manufacturing stocks excelling in machinery [19][20][29]

报 告 摘 要 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪 触及新高的个股、行业和板块可被视为市场的风向标。越来越多的研究表明动量、趋势跟踪策略的有效性。本报告旨在定期跟踪市场中创新高的个股及其 分布，以追踪市场趋势、把握市场热点。 截至2025年12月5日，上证指数、深证成指、沪深300、中证500、中证1000、中证2000、创业板指、科创50指数250日新高距离分别为3.14%、 4.21%、3.44%、5.98%、4.00%、2.50%、6.47%、13.84%。中信一级行业指数中家电、轻工制造、有色金属、通信、建材行业指数距离250日新高 较近，食品饮料、综合金融、银行、医药、商贸零售行业指数距离250日新高较远。概念指数中，卫星互联网、卫星导航、家用电器、家居用品、林木、黄 金、家用电器等概念指数距离250日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测 截至2025年12月5日，共965只股票在过去20个交易日间创出250日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的是基础化工、电力设备及新能源、机械行业，创新 高个股数量占比最高的是煤炭、纺织服装、石油石化行业。按照板块分布来看，本周周期、制造板块创新高股票数量最多；按照 ...

Group 1 - The core performance of banks is expected to recover and grow in 2026, marking the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on a "new momentum combination" for bank stocks [2] - The investment strategy for bank stocks will be discussed, including the outlook on fundamentals and the value of bank stock investments [2] - The investment perspective on the banking sector and stock selection strategies will be highlighted [2] Group 2 - The investment strategy for 2026 will focus on three main investment lines, targeting new opportunities in the Beijing Stock Exchange, particularly in technology growth, high-end manufacturing, and new materials [5] - The valuation levels of the Beijing Stock Exchange are expected to recover, with a decrease in discount rates, aligning with national strategic emerging industry development directions [5] - The Beijing Stock Exchange is home to a number of high-quality enterprises that are technically solid and leading in niche fields, providing investors with opportunities to capture long-term value [5] Group 3 - The potential for AI and intelligent control to ignite a new wave in the computer industry will be explored, along with the prospects for the "rare metals" cycle and the energy sector's transition to a zero-carbon era [7] - East Guangdong Securities will focus on the technological, resource, and energy transformations as the main investment lines for 2026 [7] Group 4 - The potential for innovative drugs to expand internationally and the expected turnaround in biotechnology will be examined, alongside the performance improvements in the medical device sector [9] - Structural opportunities in consumer healthcare and biological products will be discussed, aiming to reshape the investment logic in the pharmaceutical sector for 2026 [9]