转债板块轮动
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可转债周报:转债板块轮动深化,整体估值压缩-20250520
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-20 01:14
Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - During the week from May 12 to May 17, 2025, the A-share market showed a volatile consolidation pattern with intensified structural rotation. The market style shifted from high - elasticity gaming to defense and low - level replenishment. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose slightly by 0.32%, with a mild recovery in trading volume. The valuations in the low - and medium - price ranges were significantly compressed, while those of medium - to high - parity individual bonds were slightly repaired. There were still structural opportunities at the individual bond level. The primary market supply rhythm was active, the clause gaming remained cautious, and the redemption disturbance was generally controllable. It is recommended to focus on low - premium and high - prosperity individual bonds in the allocation, while also considering the stable allocation value of high - rated blue - chip convertible bonds [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Weekly Review Equity Market - The A - share market was volatile and differentiated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.4%, and the CSI 2000 Index rose 1.0%. The market style shifted from gaming elasticity to stable defense. Industries such as beauty care, banking, and transportation led the gains, while high - valuation growth sectors such as computer, military, and electronics adjusted. The daily average trading volume decreased to 1.2 trillion yuan, and the daily net outflow of main funds increased to 150 million yuan [10]. Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market was volatile. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.32%, and the daily average trading volume recovered to 637 million yuan. The median market price rose slightly to 112.39 yuan, and the balance - weighted implied volatility fell to 19.3%. The valuations in the low - and medium - price ranges were significantly compressed, while those of medium - to high - parity individual bonds were slightly repaired. In the primary market, 11 listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans, and in terms of clause gaming, 5 convertible bonds were expected to trigger a downward revision, 12 announced no downward revision, 2 proposed a downward revision, 5 announced an expected redemption, and 2 announced no early redemption [10]. Market Theme Weekly Review Equity Theme - The A - share theme market showed significant high - low switching. The trading - style indexes such as the daily limit hitting index, the first - board non - ST index, and the first - board index led the gains, while the growth sectors such as the pan - AI direction adjusted significantly. The market style shifted from high - elasticity gaming to low - level gaming and defense [15]. Convertible Bond - The convertible bond market rose first and then fell, with a mild recovery in trading volume. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.32%, and small - cap convertible bonds were relatively active. The valuations of medium - to high - parity convertible bonds were slightly repaired, while those in the low - price range were compressed. The market continued the pattern of structural rotation and theme gaming. It is recommended to pay attention to medium - and high - priced bonds with sufficient valuation compression, positive stock catalysis, and prosperity support [18]. Weekly Industry Outlook - The A - share market will continue the structural volatile pattern, with short - term market dominated by theme gaming and sentiment driving. High - elasticity directions such as the daily limit hitting index are strong, but the adjustment pressure on previous high - level themes such as AI and military is expected to continue. In the convertible bond market, the index rose first and then fell, with a mild recovery in trading volume. Low - priced convertible bond valuations were rapidly compressed, and medium - and high - priced bonds had valuation repair elasticity. It is recommended to pay attention to medium - and high - priced convertible bonds with fully adjusted valuations and strong fundamental support, as well as high - rated, low - premium bonds with "bond bottom + theme" dual characteristics [20]. Market Weekly Tracking Equity Market Style and Capital Trends - The main A - share indexes were volatile and differentiated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8%, and the ChiNext Index was relatively strong, rising 1.4%. The market style shifted to defense, and industries such as beauty care, banking, and transportation led the gains, while high - valuation growth sectors such as computer and military adjusted. The daily average trading volume decreased to 1.2 trillion yuan, and the daily net outflow of main funds increased to 150 million yuan. The capital allocation rhythm became more cautious, and the trading structure shifted from high - elasticity to stable defense [21][28]. Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond index rose first and then fell, with small - cap convertible bonds being more elastic. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.32%, and the daily average trading volume recovered to 637.4 million yuan. By parity interval, the valuations of medium - and high - parity convertible bonds were stretched, while those in the low - price range were compressed. By market price interval, the valuations were generally compressed. The implied volatility of the whole market was at a historical low, and the median price of convertible bonds rose slightly. There were significant differences in the performance of convertible bonds between sectors, and individual bonds were also differentiated. The primary market supply was active, and clause gaming was an important trading auxiliary [39][43][52]. Primary Market Tracking and Clause Gaming Primary Market Issuance Plan - 11 listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans, including 2 approved for registration, 2 accepted by the exchange, 5 passed by the general meeting of shareholders, and 2 at the board of directors' plan stage. The total scale of projects at the exchange - accepted and subsequent stages reached 5.9 billion yuan [10][61]. Clause Gaming - In terms of downward revision, 5 convertible bonds were expected to trigger a downward revision, 12 announced no downward revision, and 2 proposed a downward revision. In terms of redemption, 5 convertible bonds announced an expected redemption, 2 announced no early redemption, and 0 announced an early redemption [10][68][72].