Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a volume contraction and noticeable declines in the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index, with expectations of a wide-ranging fluctuation phase in the short term while still being in an upward trend overall [1][5][6] Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors, with significant value in the non-ferrous metals industry; long-term growth remains centered on technology, particularly in TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors [1][6][7][8] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has revised the "Corporate Governance Guidelines for Listed Companies," effective January 1, 2026, to enhance governance standards among listed companies [2] Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance will continue to advance the 2026 new local government debt limits to support major projects and bolster economic recovery [3] Industry Insights - The user base for generative artificial intelligence in China reached 515 million by June 2025, doubling in six months, indicating a significant growth trend in this sector [4] - The non-ferrous metals sector is highlighted for its strong configuration value due to supply-side contraction policies and new demand dynamics, with specific focus on gold, rare earths, copper, aluminum, and new energy metals [8] - Solid-state battery technology is gaining traction, with expectations for significant advancements in product performance and cost, presenting investment opportunities across the battery supply chain [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current structural fundamental clue in A-shares is the outbound expansion of Chinese enterprises, influenced by the ongoing US-China tensions, which may affect market pricing for outbound investments [2] - The new focus is on China's long-term strategy to ensure resource security, industrial chain safety, and leading technology security, indicating a shift in investment themes post-dividend rotation [2] - The adjustment in the leading industries, such as optical modules, PCB, and innovative pharmaceuticals, is expected to continue, with potential for new highs as the third-quarter reports approach [3][4] Group 2 - The market is currently in a bull market consolidation phase characterized by high-low fund rotation and index stagnation, with the expectation that the bull market logic remains intact [6] - The market's recent adjustments are attributed to high valuations and uncertainties in US-China relations, but historical patterns suggest that such corrections are common in bull markets [7] - The upcoming policy expectations and the focus on the "15th Five-Year Plan" are likely to provide new investment opportunities, particularly in sectors with strong performance certainty [8][10] Group 3 - The recent market adjustments are seen as the beginning of a structural shift, with a focus on domestic industries that are experiencing a recovery in demand [9] - The investment strategy should prioritize sectors with strong growth potential, such as new consumption, military industry, and advanced manufacturing, while also considering defensive sectors [11] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to see continued upward movement in indices, driven by policy catalysts and stable earnings expectations [14]

A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎么说。 沪指本周累计下跌1.47%，深证成指跌4.99%，创业板指跌5.71%。A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎么说： ①中国银河证券：短期市场风格切换，聚焦"十五五"预期 华金证券研报表示，科技占优的风格中长期难切换，短期可能转向均衡。（1）科技成长占优的风格短 期可能转向均衡，但中长期不变。一是复盘历史，无明显积极政策和产业趋势支撑是重大事件发生后一 个月内风格发生切换的主要原因，且均是短期切换。二是当前来看，科技成长占优的风格短期可能转成 均衡，但中长期不变：首先，政策依然偏积极；其次，人工智能、机器人等产业上行趋势在中短期均不 变；最后，科技成长前期涨幅较高。（2）成长风格短期仍可能占优。 中信证券研报表示，当前A股最大的结构性基本面线索依然是中企出海。4月后的TACO经验加上中国底 气的增加，导致不少投资者调仓时犹豫不决，给了红利板块阶段性高切低并获取超额的机会，但这只是 旧逻辑下的轮动，并非新的主线。新的线索是中国长期且系统性的保障资源安全、产业链安全和领先技 术安全的战略意图，红利轮动结束后，需密切跟踪可能贯穿明年的新线索，包括产业链安全和端侧 AI。 ③光大证券：短期关注防 ...

证券研究报告 策略点评（R2） 市场波动幅度或将放大，关注"十五五"规划建 议方向 财信证券宏观策略周报（10.20-10.24） 2025 年 10 月 19 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 % 1M 3M 12M 上证指数 -0.57 9.59 19.88 -9% 1% 11% 21% 31% 2024-10 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 上证指数 沪深300 | 沪深 300 | -0.20 | 12.65 | 17.82 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄红卫 | | 分析师 | | | 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 | | | | huanghongwei@hnchasing.com 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 大势研判。短期来看，在 10 月底前，预计市场可能要消化中美谈判不确定性 因素，预计市场以震荡整理为主，建议合理控制仓位，但指数整体下探空间 可能有限，上证指数 3700 点仍是强支撑位，大盘蓝筹高股息风格或短期占 优；10 月底中美谈判前后，预计市场对此前利空因素充分消化，如果谈判并 未出现进一步不利因素，届时市场 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Factor Performance Tracking Single Factor Performance - Factors with the best performance in the CSI 300 stock pool this week include the standard deviation of 5-day trading volume (2.12%), the proportion of downside volatility (1.78%), and the 5-day exponential moving average of trading volume (1.35%) [1][12] - Factors with the worst performance in the CSI 300 stock pool this week include the 5-day reversal (-3.60%), single-quarter total asset gross profit margin (-3.43%), and single-quarter ROA (-3.38%) [1][12] - Factors with the best performance in the CSI 500 stock pool this week include the inverse of the P/E ratio TTM (3.99%), the proportion of downside volatility (3.80%), and the P/E ratio factor (3.17%) [14] - Factors with the worst performance in the CSI 500 stock pool this week include the 5-day reversal (-1.95%), 5-day average turnover rate (-1.17%), and the 5-day exponential moving average of trading volume (-1.15%) [14] - Factors with the best performance in the liquidity 1500 stock pool this week include the correlation between intraday volatility and trading volume (2.27%), the proportion of downside volatility (1.80%), and the P/B ratio factor (1.51%) [16] - Factors with the worst performance in the liquidity 1500 stock pool this week include single-quarter EPS (-1.36%), standardized unexpected income (-1.29%), and the 5-day reversal (-1.25%) [16] Major Factor Performance - In the overall market stock pool this week, the momentum factor achieved a positive return of 0.43%, indicating a momentum effect in the market [18] - The Beta factor, market capitalization factor, and non-linear market capitalization factor achieved negative returns of -1.50%, -0.91%, and -0.54%, respectively, indicating a small-cap style in the market [18] Industry Factor Performance - This week, fundamental factors showed varied performance across industries. The net asset growth rate factor, net profit growth rate factor, net asset per share factor, and operating profit per share TTM factor consistently achieved positive returns in the non-bank financial industry [22] - Among valuation factors, the BP factor and EP factor consistently achieved positive returns in the home appliances, comprehensive, and non-bank financial industries [22] - The residual volatility factor and liquidity factor showed significant positive returns in the coal industry [22] - In terms of market capitalization style, the food and beverage, beauty care, and banking industries showed a significant large-cap style this week [22] Factor Backtesting Results CSI 300 Stock Pool - Standard deviation of 5-day trading volume: 2.12% (1 week), 3.52% (1 month), 8.21% (1 year), 19.07% (10 years) [13] - Proportion of downside volatility: 1.78% (1 week), 0.41% (1 month), -5.44% (1 year), 25.57% (10 years) [13] - 5-day exponential moving average of trading volume: 1.35% (1 week), 1.19% (1 month), 3.70% (1 year), 5.13% (10 years) [13] CSI 500 Stock Pool - Inverse of P/E ratio TTM: 3.99% (1 week), 4.80% (1 month), -5.74% (1 year), 48.40% (10 years) [15] - Proportion of downside volatility: 3.80% (1 week), 1.56% (1 month), -3.09% (1 year), 107.51% (10 years) [15] - P/E ratio factor: 3.17% (1 week), 2.58% (1 month), -4.94% (1 year), 26.11% (10 years) [15] Liquidity 1500 Stock Pool - Correlation between intraday volatility and trading volume: 2.27% (1 week), 3.18% (1 month), 2.59% (1 year), 152.82% (10 years) [17] - Proportion of downside volatility: 1.80% (1 week), 2.97% (1 month), 5.48% (1 year), 114.63% (10 years) [17] - P/B ratio factor: 1.51% (1 week), 3.69% (1 month), -5.28% (1 year), 74.59% (10 years) [17] Portfolio Tracking PB-ROE-50 Portfolio Performance - This week, the PB-ROE-50 portfolio achieved positive excess returns in the CSI 500 stock pool: 0.15% [24] - In the CSI 800 stock pool, the PB-ROE-50 portfolio achieved excess returns of -1.50% [24] - In the overall market stock pool, the PB-ROE-50 portfolio achieved excess returns of -2.52% [24] Institutional Research Portfolio Tracking - This week, the public fund research stock selection strategy and private fund research tracking strategy achieved negative excess returns relative to the CSI 800: -0.94% and -4.83%, respectively [26] Block Trade Portfolio Tracking - This week, the block trade portfolio achieved positive excess returns relative to the CSI All Share Index: 1.56% [30] Private Placement Portfolio Tracking - This week, the private placement portfolio achieved positive excess returns relative to the CSI All Share Index: 1.86% [36]

编辑丨高梦阳 "功效护肤第一股"贝泰妮（300957.SZ），正加码资本领域布局。 10月13日，贝泰妮公告称，为把握战略合作机会，公司拟作为有限合伙人，与无锡金鹫投资合伙企业（有限合伙）、江苏无锡 生物医药产业专项母基金（有限合伙）、江阴高新区金融投资有限公司、江阴市金融投资有限公司等多方共同出资设立无锡金 雨茂物医疗健康产业投资合伙企业（有限合伙）（简称"金雨基金"）。 该基金计划总规模10亿元，主要投资方向包括消费医疗及国民健康质量提升（含康养、医美、特医及功能食品等）、药物（含 合成生物学、创新药等）、医疗器械、医疗支持性产业、AI制药等领域。其中，贝泰妮拟认缴5000万元，将持有该基金5%份 额。 另据21世纪经济报道记者梳理，近年来，贝泰妮先后参投了"红杉基金"、"三正基金"、"金皋基金"等多个基金，将触角延伸至资 本端，在美妆主业之外挖掘更多的业务增量。 二级市场上，10月17日贝泰妮跌2.78%报45.85元/股，近五日跌0.26%。 | 45.85 -1.31 -2.78% | | --- | 记者丨朱艺艺 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 业绩不佳，194亿护肤品龙头盯上产业基金记者丨朱艺艺 编辑丨高梦阳 "功效护肤第一股"贝泰妮（300957.SZ），正加码资本领域布局。 | 1 | | | | | | SUUSS / X2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 15:30:18 闭市 | | | | | ● > 電 風 過去裝置公園 | | | 50.17% 委左 | 147 | Wind ESG评级 | | AA | | 详情 | | 45.91 | 17 | 交电 | | 8.85% 120日 | | 10.129 | | 45.90 | 3 | 5日 | | -0.26% 250日 | | -33.909 | | 45.88 | 1 | 20日 | | -7.93% 52周高 | | 73.0 | | 45.87 | 1 | 60日 | | 4.02% 52周低 | | 36.9 | | 45.86 | 45 | | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025H | | 45.85 | 177 | EbS ...

记者丨 朱艺艺 编辑丨高梦阳 "功效护肤第一股"贝泰妮（300957.SZ），正加码资本领域布局。 10月13日，贝泰妮公告称，为把握战略合作机会，公司拟作为有限合伙人，与无锡金鹫投资合 伙企业（有限合伙）、江苏无锡生物医药产业专项母基金（有限合伙）、江阴高新区金融投资 有限公司、江阴市金融投资有限公司等多方共同出资设立无锡金雨茂物医疗健康产业投资合伙 企业（有限合伙）（简称"金雨基金"）。 三年参投基金2 . 8亿元 | 投资时间 | 基金名称 | 拟投资规模 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2022年6月 | 杭州红杉晟恒股权投资合伙企业(有限 | 1 亿元 | | | 合伙)(简称"红杉基金") | | | 2023 年 4 月 | 南京建邺叁正正行股权投资合伙企业 | 1 亿元 | | | (有限合伙)(简称"三正基金") | | | 2023 年 8 月 | 厦门云重股权投资合伙企业（有限合 | 3 亿元(已提前终止) | | | 伙)(简称"云重基金") | | | 2023 年 10 月 | 江苏金皋新材料创业投资合伙企业(有 | 0.3 亿元 | | | 限合伙) (简称"金皋 ...

（原标题：【盘中播报】沪指跌1.39% 电力设备行业跌幅最大） 今日各行业表现（截至下午13:58） | 申万行业 | 行业 | 成交额 | 比上日 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 涨跌 | （亿元） | （%） | 领涨（跌）股 | （%） | | | （%） | | | | | | 煤炭 | 0.12 | 165.48 | -1.93 | 安泰集团 | 10.00 | | 银行 | -0.04 | 302.99 | 0.44 | 上海银行 | -0.83 | | 钢铁 | -0.09 | 133.07 | 11.66 | 武进不锈 | -7.73 | | 交通运输 | -0.11 | 258.60 | 1.27 | 普路通 | -3.36 | | 纺织服饰 | -0.25 | 119.79 | 1.62 | 迎丰股份 | -9.99 | | 石油石化 | -0.29 | 83.04 | 13.78 | 康普顿 | -3.19 | | 农林牧渔 | -0.45 | 139.82 | 1.92 | 傲农生物 | -4.66 | | 房地产 ...

④9月的M2-M1剪刀差刷新年内低值，为1.2个百分点，反映更多资金转为活期贷款，有助于消费和投 资。 中信建投指出，国内经济有望逐渐企稳回升，以白酒为代表的顺周期产业有望重新步入高增长通道，建 议珍惜当前低位布局机会。 双节之后，以科技股为首的"小登"资产大幅回调，以白酒为首的"老登"资产趁势反弹，细分食品指数今 日涨0.34%，欲冲击三连涨，引发市场关于风格切换的讨论。 催化剂方面： ①行业动态来看，双节期间，白酒动销整体下滑20%-30%，茅台等高端白酒价格下跌后性价比提升。随 着双十一电商补贴活动陆续开启，可以持续关注批价走势。 ②10月15日，贵州茅台召开茅台酱香系列酒营销座谈会，传递出积极信号：茅台酱香酒进入9月后，各 产品终端动销情况环比出现明显回升，市场活力逐步释放。 ③10月16日-10月18日，糖酒会即将在南京召开，国海证券认为禁酒令纠偏后影响边际改善，但仍需一 定时间修复，行业基本面最差阶段已过。 目前上证消费PE(TTM)为21.73倍，位于近十年6.65%的历史分位；细分食品PE(TTM)为20.58倍，位于近 十年7.05%的历史分位。 值得关注的相关标的： 白酒龙头股代表：食品饮 ...