证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20260201 年报业绩预告中的景气线索 2026 年 02 月 01 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 上市公司盈利延续复苏 截至 2026 年 1 月 31 日，A 股 2025 年报业绩预告基本披露完毕。A 股全 部上市公司中（剔除 2025 年及以后上市的公司，后同），共 2983 家上市公 司发布了业绩预告/业绩快报，披露率达到 55.73%。已披露上市公司 2024 年归母净利润合计近 5400 亿元，占全部 A 股归母净利润的 10.30%。其中 主板共有 1646 家上市公司披露，披露率为 52.24%；创业板共有 843 家上 市公司披露，披露率为 62.03%；科创板共有 373 家上市公司披露，披露率 为 64.20%；北交所共有 121 家上市公司披露，披露率为 46.36%。 在已披露业绩预告类型的上市公司中，预喜率为 36.67%。按照业绩预告 的类型，将预告类型分为预盈（包含略增、扭亏、续盈、预增）、预亏（略 减、首亏、续亏、预减）两组，同时剔除业绩预告类型为不确定的公司， 预喜率为预盈公司数量的占比。在已披露 2025 年报业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong capital market is experiencing a surge in listings from consumer companies, with notable firms like Junlebao, Qian Dama, and Yuanji Food preparing to go public, indicating a strategic move amidst a challenging domestic consumption environment [1][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - In early 2026, 14 consumer companies have disclosed H-share prospectuses, a significant increase compared to the same period in 2025 [1]. - The IPO of Dongpeng Beverage, expected to raise HKD 10 billion, marks the largest IPO in the Asian beverage sector in recent years [1]. - The trend of consumer companies going public in Hong Kong reflects a strategic response to various market conditions, including policy support and capital market changes [5][6]. Group 2: Company Highlights - Junlebao, a leading player in the dairy industry, aims to raise funds for factory construction, capacity expansion, brand marketing, and digital transformation, with annual revenue around RMB 20 billion [2]. - Jin Xing Beer, a traditional brewery, has shown explosive growth, with revenue increasing from RMB 356 million to RMB 1.109 billion and net profit soaring from RMB 12 million to RMB 305 million over two years [3]. - The emerging beauty brand Banmu Huatian is also pursuing a Hong Kong listing to enhance R&D and brand development in a competitive market [3]. Group 3: Factors Driving Listings - Policy support from the Chinese government has facilitated the process for consumer companies to list in Hong Kong, with measures introduced to encourage leading firms to access capital markets [5][6]. - The shift towards Hong Kong listings is also driven by tightening A-share market conditions for consumer companies, making Hong Kong a more attractive option for capital raising [6]. - The influx of venture capital and private equity into emerging consumer firms has created pressure for exits, making public listings a viable path for capital recovery [7]. Group 4: Market Performance and Challenges - There is a noticeable divergence in stock performance among consumer companies listed in Hong Kong, with some achieving high valuations while others struggle post-IPO [8][9]. - The market favors companies with strong brand presence and visible cash flow, while smaller brands face liquidity discounts due to lack of profitability [9]. - Successful expansion in the consumer sector requires matching growth with profitability, as merely increasing store numbers is no longer sufficient to attract capital [9].

Core Viewpoint - The surge of consumer companies listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) in early 2026 is driven by a combination of capital demands, market conditions, and favorable policy environments, marking a significant trend in the consumer sector [1][8]. Group 1: Listing Trends - Major consumer companies such as Mingming Hen Mang and Dongpeng Beverage have recently completed their IPOs, with Dongpeng raising an estimated HKD 10 billion, setting a record for the Asian beverage industry [1][4]. - As of January 30, 2026, 14 consumer companies have disclosed their H-share prospectuses, indicating a notable increase compared to the same period in 2025 [2][4]. - The trend includes a diverse range of sectors, including food and beverage, beauty care, and home goods, showcasing a multi-faceted approach to capitalizing on market opportunities [4][6]. Group 2: Company Highlights - Junlebao, a leading dairy brand, aims to raise funds for factory construction, capacity expansion, and brand marketing, with an annual revenue of approximately CNY 20 billion [4]. - Jinxing Beer, known for its craft beer, reported a revenue increase from CNY 356 million to CNY 1.109 billion from 2023 to the first nine months of 2025, with net profit soaring from CNY 12 million to CNY 305 million, marking a 2400% increase [5]. - Other notable companies like Qian Dama and Yuanji Food are also advancing their listing processes, reflecting a broader trend of consumer companies seeking capital to support growth and expansion [4][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The favorable policy environment, including measures from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to support leading enterprises in listing in Hong Kong, has facilitated this trend [8]. - The recovery of the HKEX since 2025 has made it an attractive option for consumer companies, with over one-third of new listings in the first half of 2025 being consumer-related [9]. - The internal pressures for capital and the need for significant funding to support growth strategies are driving companies to pursue listings as a means of capitalizing on market opportunities [9][10]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Performance - There is a noticeable divergence in stock performance among consumer companies listed on the HKEX, with some achieving high valuations while others struggle post-IPO [11][12]. - The market favors companies with strong brand presence and visible cash flow, while smaller brands face liquidity discounts due to lack of profitability [12]. - The ability to expand internationally and enhance operational efficiency is becoming increasingly important for valuation in the consumer sector [12].

2026年以来，A股市场总体呈现较明显的结构性分化。一方面，科创类股票、有色金属类股票强势领跑，被市场戏称为"老登"的银行、白酒等 传统行业板块表现则明显滞后。 与此同时，个股的分化则更为明显，翻倍股与"腰斩"股均已陆续出现。 2026年以来指数和板块分化明显：科创、有色领跑 "老登"板块失落 2026年以来近一个月的时间里，尽管市场跌宕起伏，但A股市场总体呈现较大分化，这一分化首先体现在主要指数表现的差异上。 数据显示，A股市场主要指数中，中证500指数表现亮眼，2026年以来累计已上涨14.09%。据Wind数据，该指数成份股2026年以来不到一个月的时间合计 成交额超过11万亿元，超过2025年9月的月度数值。这意味着，该指数的成份股月度合计成交额将创出历史新高。 在中证500指数之外，科创50指数的表现也不遑多让，2026年以来累计涨幅已达12.16%，这是在此前一年该指数大涨的基础上。2025年，科创50指数已大 幅上涨35.92%。在指数大幅上行的同时，2026年以来科创板交投活跃度也随之进一步提升，不到一个月的时间里合计成交额已超过6万亿元，超过科创板 此前任何一个月份的月度成交额。 北证50指 ...

以幅度进行统计，有色金属行业融资余额增幅最高，最新融资余额为1554.22亿元，环比增长3.99%，其 次是建筑装饰、纺织服饰、石油石化行业，环比增幅分别为2.63%、1.97%、1.48%；融资余额环比降幅 居前的行业有建筑材料、美容护理、社会服务等，最新融资余额分别有142.38亿元、69.00亿元、135.67 亿元，分别下降1.04%、0.34%、0.32%。（数据宝） 1月28日各行业融资余额环比变动 | 代码 | 最新融资 | 较上一日增减（亿元） | 环比增幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 余额（亿元） | | | | 有色金属 | 1554.22 | 59.68 | 3.99 | | 通信 | 1352.03 | 12.35 | 0.92 | | 计算机 | 1890.97 | 12.09 | 0.64 | | 建筑装饰 | 427.93 | 10.98 | 2.63 | | 非银金融 | 2021.76 | 10.09 | 0.50 | | 医药生物 | 1705.41 | 9.39 | 0.55 | | 银行 | 845.51 | 8.93 | 1. ...

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 29 日 核心结论 分析师 【基金】公募 FOF 基金 2025 年 4 季报分析：结构重于指数，科技+周期是 主线 25Q4，公募 FOF 规模上升，百亿基金公司 7 家，易方达跃居规模第一，CR10 降至 60%。新发规模 458.54 亿元，偏债型为主。FOF 正收益比例 49%， 中信建投睿选 6 个月取得 25Q4 业绩之冠。配置上，增持债基、减持股基和 商品型基金。被增持较多的权益基金为中欧红利优享、汇添富外延增长主题 等。整体来看，FOF 基金经理对于后市相对乐观，预计呈现结构性机会，科 技+周期是主线。 【电池】海外电动车主题系列报告（二）：重启与突破：2026 年欧洲电动车 市场迈入新阶段 2025 年供给侧驱动，欧洲强车型周期+中性政策周期步入电动车销量快速修 复阶段，电动车渗透率预计达 29%；2026 年补贴政策加持+产品周期共振， 电动车渗透率有望达 35%，中国锂电产业链抓取欧洲市场崛起机遇，实现竞 争格局的巩固与突破。 【建筑装饰】建筑建材行业专题报告：建筑央企有望受益于国资央企战略性 /专业化重组 当前行业需求承压背景下，大建筑央 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% to close at 4151.24 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09% to 14342.89 points. However, the ChiNext Index fell by 0.57% to 3323.56 points, and the STAR 50 Index decreased by 0.08% to 1554.8 points. Overall, there were 1736 stocks that rose and 3636 stocks that fell, with a total trading volume of 29,654 billion yuan, an increase of 704 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, building materials, and steel led the gains, with increases of 5.92%, 3.54%, 3.42%, 2.18%, and 2.16% respectively. Conversely, industries such as comprehensive, media, national defense and military industry, beauty care, and pharmaceutical biology experienced declines, with decreases of 2.53%, 1.77%, 1.68%, 1.65%, and 1.56% respectively [1]. Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors that performed well today included gold and jewelry, selected industrial metals, fiberglass, nickel ore, small metals, selected rare metals, copper industry, cobalt ore, selected coal mining, advanced packaging, germanium-gallium-antimony ink, central enterprise coal, aluminum industry, selected chemical raw materials, and oil and gas extraction. In contrast, sectors such as genetic testing, selected medical devices, industrial mother machines, and selected power equipment saw a pullback [2].

人民币升值下的行业机会 20260127 摘要 人民币升值利好以美元计价成本的行业，如航空业（燃油成本）和地产 行业（美元债务成本下降），提升盈利能力。 人民币升值增强国内居民购买力，利好可选消费品行业，包括零售、轻 工制造、美容护理和纺织品等消费导向型行业。 历史数据显示，人民币升值期间外资倾向流入中国市场，利好中国优势 产业，如锂电池、半导体和工业金属等。 自 2015 年以来，人民币升值周期与 A 股指数通常呈现负相关关系，即 人民币升值时股市表现较好。2025 年四五月份至今，大盘行情与人民 币汇率走势基本一致。 成长风格板块在人民币升值背景下通常表现优于价值风格板块，市场风 格偏向成长性、高增长及弹性较大的板块，如科技、新能源等。 公用事业、地产、交通运输和非银金融等行业对汇率变化敏感，直接受 益于人民币升值带来的汇率损益。 人民币升值期间，外资流入明显增加，关注有色、新能源、电力设备及 电子等一级行业，以及锂电池、工业金属、半导体、光伏及通信设备等 二级细分领域。 Q&A 人民币升值对哪些行业具有潜在利好？ 人民币升值对一些行业具有显著的潜在利好，主要可以从成本、消费和资金流 三个维度进行分析。 ...

截至1月27日，市场最新融资余额为27059.04亿元，较上个交易日环比减少21.18亿元，分行业统计，申 万所属一级行业有17个行业融资余额增加，通信行业融资余额增加最多，较上一日增加11.10亿元；融 资余额增加居前的行业还有医药生物、有色金属、公用事业等，融资余额分别增加4.43亿元、4.09亿 元、2.90亿元；融资余额减少的行业有14个，机械设备、汽车、国防军工等行业融资余额减少较多，分 别减少17.02亿元、9.58亿元、6.80亿元。 以幅度进行统计，煤炭行业融资余额增幅最高，最新融资余额为149.82亿元，环比增长1.09%，其次是 通信、钢铁、农林牧渔行业，环比增幅分别为0.84%、0.79%、0.59%；融资余额环比降幅居前的行业有 机械设备、综合、石油石化等，最新融资余额分别有1418.93亿元、49.17亿元、230.11亿元，分别下降 1.19%、1.10%、0.89%。（数据宝） 1月27日各行业融资余额环比变动 | 代码 | 最新融资 | 较上一日增减（亿元） | 环比增幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 余额（亿元） | | | | 通信 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.18% closing at 4139.9 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.09% closing at 14329.91 points. The ChiNext Index increased by 0.71% to 3342.6 points, while the STAR 50 Index rose by 1.51% to 1555.98 points. Overall, there were 1928 stocks that rose and 3450 that fell, with a total trading volume of 28950 billion yuan, a decrease of 3532 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, electronics, communications, defense and military industry, machinery equipment, and media sectors led the gains with increases of 2.27%, 2.15%, 1.65%, 0.64%, and 0.48% respectively. Conversely, the coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, steel, beauty care, and pharmaceutical biotechnology sectors experienced declines, with decreases of 2.27%, 1.95%, 1.34%, 1.22%, and 1.11% respectively [1][2]. Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors that saw the highest gains today included cultivated diamonds, superhard materials, advanced packaging, optical chips, memory, analog chips, BC batteries, automotive chips, semiconductor silicon wafers, MCU chips, semiconductor selections, optical modules (CPO), wafer industry, and IGBT. In contrast, sectors such as cobalt mining, animal health selections, major infrastructure central enterprises, lithium battery anodes, and central enterprise coal experienced pullbacks [2].