2026 年 3 月 3 日 中观行业比较月报（2026 年 2 月） 把握景气有支撑的周期涨价、科技制造两大主线 证券分析师 策略配置研究 平安观点： 2. 中游制造：新能源材料成本压力边际缓和，内需修复仍待观察。价的方面， 2 月光伏、电池产业链材料价格多数调整（硅料、硅片、六氟磷酸锂、电解液 等），成本压力有所缓和。量的方面，细分行业有分化，1 月机械设备领域的挖 掘机械的国内、出口销量环比虽回落，但同比显著增长，或与 Q4 财政发力带 动基建需求有关；但 1 月国内汽车销量显著走弱，乘用车销量同、环比均下滑， 新能源汽车销量环比下滑 44.8%，对应动力电池装车量环比也显著下滑。 3. TMT：半导体涨价趋势延续，AI 算力硬件的高景气延续（PCB/光模块）。AI 产业继续支撑硬件端需求。一是以存储为代表的半导体涨价趋势延续，2 月 DXI 指数环比上涨 6.1%，同比涨幅已超 12 倍；12 月全球和中国半导体销售额也维 持同、环比正增。二是 PCB、光模块等算力硬件维持高景气，1 月台股 PCB 原 料、制造营收同比均实现两位数增长；光模块最新出口金额、数量维持在近两 年高位（25 年 12 月） ...

沪深300今日主力资金净流出315.32亿元，创业板净流出504.24亿元。 | | | 各板块最近五个交易日主力资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 沪深300 | 创业板 | 科创板 | | 2026-3-3 | -315. 32 | -504. 24 | -35. 63 | | 2026-3-2 | -162. 41 | -237.56 | -31. 37 | | 2026-2-27 | -203. 66 | -187. 58 | -8. 34 | | 2026-2-26 | -111.09 | -95. 18 | -7.99 | | 2026-2-25 | -22. 25 | -53. 25 | -24. 20 | | | | 尾盘资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | 2026-3-3 | -56. 19 | -75.08 | -11.80 | | 2026-3-2 | -12. 62 | -25.56 | -5. 54 | | 2026-2-27 | -18. 19 | -5. 49 | -1. 72 | | 2026-2-26 | -18. ...

丨证券研究报告丨 市场策略丨专题报告 [Table_Title] A 股周论：两会前后买什么？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 两会前后 A 股市场通常呈现出一定的日历效应，整体呈现上涨趋势。市场风格上，两会前市场 风格通常呈现出"小盘>大盘"的特征，而消费风格在两会后可能展现出较强的股价弹性。在两 会前后的市场节点，建议关注两条交易线索：（1）历史经验表明，历次"五年规划"首年的两 会窗口期，市场表有更大概率围绕当年规划的产业主线展开；（2）从资金面看，市场处于牛市 期间，两会前后 A 股市场表现与融资余额走势高度相关。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 戴清 李巍东 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 年后第一周，A 股市场迎来开门红，周期板块领涨。结构上看，本周 A 股市场主要宽基指数普 遍上涨，中证 1000 指数领涨市场，小盘股表现相对优于大盘股；分行业看，本周钢铁、有色 金属等行业领涨市场，地缘扰动持续与全球制造业复苏周期背景下周期板块领涨市场。3 月市 场 ...

美容护理行业 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 研究助理：陈姿倩 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340125070028 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenziqian@dgzq.com.cn 美容护理（申万）指数走势 资料来源：ifind ，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 超配（维持） 美容护理行业双周报（2026/2/13-2026/2/26） 全球巨头织网，本土龙头基本面稳固 行 业 周 报 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 2026 年 2 月 27 日 ◼ SW美容护理行业跑输沪深300指数。2026年2月13日-2026年2月26日，SW 美容护理行业下跌0.15%，跑输同期沪深300指数约0.30个百分点，涨幅 居SW一级行业第二十一。SW美容护理行业二级细分板块中，个护用品涨 幅为2.40%，化妆品、医疗美容分别 ...

万联证券发布研报称，美护行业建议关注：1)医美：中长期我国医美行业渗透率有望持续提升，看好产 品附加值高、管线丰富、布局高成长性细分赛道的合规医美龙头公司；2)化妆品：近年不少国货品牌凭 借出众的产品力、营销能力取得亮眼增长。年轻一代消费者对于国货美妆品牌的接受度提高，国货品牌 有望实现市占率进一步提升，建议关注强研发、产品力和营销能力优秀的国货化妆品龙头公司。3)个护 用品：大健康理念普及下，消费者对个人健康和护理愈发重视，同时细分领域不断扩大。建议关注产品 矩阵丰富、研发能力强的个护用品龙头公司。 万联证券主要观点如下： 事件 截至2026年2月13日，美容护理行业共计31家A股公司，已有13家发布业绩预告，行业披露率为42%， 在消费八大行业中位列第8；行业预盈率为69%，在消费八大行业中排行第1。子板块表现较为稳定，其 中，个护板块预盈率较高，化妆品板块预盈率过半、医疗美容板块预盈率为半数。 美护业绩表现居首，预盈率近七成 截至2026年2月13日，美容护理行业共计31家A股公司，已有13家发布业绩预告，行业披露率为42%， 在消费八大行业中位列第8；行业预盈率为69%，在消费八大行业中排行第1。分具 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend post-Spring Festival, driven by a combination of trend inertia, seasonal effects, and policy environment support [3] Market Characteristics - The A-share market is influenced by multiple factors, exhibiting a complex overall pattern characterized by clear trends, numerous short-term disturbances, and significant structural differentiation [1] - The core support for the market's upward trend includes improving corporate profit prospects, increased willingness of residents to invest, and ongoing policies to reduce competition [1][2] Short-term Market Dynamics - The pre-Spring Festival period has led to a temporary decline in market activity as some funds opted to secure profits amid uncertainty, but this has not altered the core market trend [2] - Historical data shows that since 2009, the average spring market rally has lasted 57 days with an average increase of over 20% [2] Investment Strategy - Post-Spring Festival, the investment logic will focus on "value supporting growth," with a shift from low-risk to high-risk preferences, emphasizing technology and cyclical sectors [4] - Five key investment themes are recommended: 1. Artificial intelligence industry chain, shifting focus from hardware to application [5] 2. High dividend yield assets, particularly in stable cash flow sectors like white goods and banking [5] 3. Anti-involution sectors benefiting from improved competition dynamics, such as coal and steel [5] 4. Core areas of domestic demand recovery, focusing on sectors with strong growth potential like health and tourism [6] 5. Investment opportunities in strategic and industrial metals, anticipating a rebound in prices [6] Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a "red envelope market" post-Spring Festival, with potential for further expansion if consumer data exceeds expectations [3] - The overall market is projected to maintain a "stable and upward" characteristic, with limited downside potential for indices [3]

Core Insights - The A-share market showed a narrow consolidation with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% to 4,131.98 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.35% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.08% [2][9] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 1.98 trillion RMB, with nearly 2,000 stocks rising [2][9] - In terms of industry performance, the construction materials and non-ferrous metals sectors led the gains, while the telecommunications sector lagged behind [2][9] Economic Indicators - In January 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with urban prices rising by 0.2% and rural prices by 0.1% [3][11] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, while month-on-month, it increased by 0.4% [4][11] Earnings Forecasts - As of February 9, 2026, 2,976 A-share companies had disclosed their annual earnings forecasts, with a disclosure rate of 54.32%. Among these, 1,106 companies (37.16%) issued positive earnings forecasts [12][15] - The stable sector had the highest proportion of positive forecasts at 57.58%, followed by the cyclical sector at 42.55%, while the consumer sector had the lowest at 30.81% [12][15] - Five industries had a positive forecast rate exceeding 50%, with notable improvements in the defense, automotive, and beauty care sectors [13][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with improving profit growth, including upstream non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, midstream machinery and electrical industries, and TMT sectors [15] - The overall profitability of A-share companies is expected to continue recovering, with the highest positive forecast rates in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and automotive industries [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on service consumption, beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry as new consumption sectors [6][26]. Core Insights - The report highlights that during the Spring Festival travel period, the total cross-regional population flow is expected to reach 9.5 billion people, setting a historical record [4][24]. - In the beauty care sector, the top three brands on Tmall in January 2026 were L'Oreal, Proya, and Lancôme, indicating a strong market concentration with the top 20 brands accounting for 28.7% of total sales [3][24]. - The report notes that the net profit of Estée Lauder turned from a loss to a profit in Q2 of the 2026 fiscal year, with a net sales increase of 6% year-on-year [3][24]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - For the week of February 2 to February 6, 2026, the performance of the retail, social services, and beauty care sectors was -0.34%, +0.02%, and +3.69% respectively, ranking them 19th, 17th, and 2nd among 31 primary industries [16][18]. Key Industry Events and News - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other units issued the "2026 Spring Festival Special Activity Plan," which includes various promotional activities during the holiday [3][24]. - The first week of the Spring Festival saw an estimated 1.413 billion people moving across regions, a 2% increase compared to the previous year [4][24]. - Bubble Mart's annual sales reached over 400 million units in 2025, with a global employee count exceeding 10,000 and membership surpassing 100 million [4][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Ruoyu Chen, Mao Ge Ping, Shangmei Co., Bubble Mart, Chao Hong Ji, and Lao Pu Gold as potential investment targets [6][26].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, with a focus on service consumption, beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry as new consumption sectors [6][26]. Core Insights - The report highlights that during the Spring Festival travel period, the total cross-regional population flow is expected to reach 9.5 billion people, setting a historical record. The average daily flight volume in the national civil aviation sector is projected to be 17,056 flights, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.6% compared to 2025 and an 18.4% increase compared to 2019 [4][24]. - In the beauty care sector, the top three brands on Tmall in January 2026 were L'Oreal, Proya, and Lancôme, with the total sales of the top 20 brands accounting for 28.7% of the market, reflecting an increase in market concentration [3][24]. - The report notes significant corporate activities, such as Meituan's plan to acquire Dingdong Maicai for $717 million, indicating ongoing consolidation in the retail sector [5][24]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - For the week of February 2 to February 6, 2026, the performance of the retail, social services, and beauty care sectors was -0.34%, +0.02%, and +3.69%, respectively, ranking them 19th, 17th, and 2nd among 31 primary industries [2][16]. Key Industry Events and Information - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other units issued the "2026 'Happy New Year' Spring Festival Special Activity Plan," which will run from February 15 to 23, covering various aspects of consumer experience [3][24]. - The report details the Spring Festival travel forecast, with a total expected flow of 9.5 billion people, and highlights the increase in flight operations compared to previous years [4][24]. - In the beauty care segment, significant product launches and financial recoveries were noted, such as Estée Lauder's return to profitability with a net profit of $162 million for Q2 of fiscal year 2026 [3][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes a focus on service consumption and specific companies such as Ruoyuchen, Maogeping, Shangmei, Pop Mart, Chaohongji, and Laopu Gold as key investment targets [6][26].

Group 1: Company Overview - The company, Jinsong New Materials (300849.SZ), has recently seen its stock price break through a 60-day high, primarily driven by short-term capital inflows and technical indicators [1] - The company reported a net profit of -9.47 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 1183.73%, indicating weak fundamental support [4] - There is a risk of being classified as ST (Special Treatment) if the 2025 annual report shows a negative net profit and revenue below 100 million yuan [4] Group 2: Market and Technical Analysis - There has been a continuous inflow of main funds, with net inflows of 8.99 million yuan on February 10 and 7.41 million yuan on February 11, leading to a significant increase in stock price [2] - The trading volume has significantly increased, with a turnover of 179 million yuan on February 11 and a turnover rate of 6.68%, compared to a previous rate of 1.01% on February 2 [2] - Key moving averages have shown a bullish arrangement, with the current stock price of 22.29 yuan surpassing the 5-day, 20-day, and 60-day moving averages, indicating a strengthened short-term trend [2] Group 3: Industry Context - The company is categorized under micro-cap stocks, with a total market value of 3.344 billion yuan, and has seen a cumulative stock price increase of 42.61% since the beginning of 2026, significantly outperforming the beauty and personal care sector's increase of 4.96% [3] - Despite being marked for "rights protection" due to information disclosure violations, some investors may speculate on the potential for a rebound, compounded by the low market value which amplifies volatility [3]