7月以来分别累计大涨44.89%、56.49%的金岭矿业（000655）、道氏技术（300409），也都获得了公募 基金的积极捧场。根据最新披露的三季报，钟帅执掌的华夏卓越成长新进为金岭矿业第五大流通股东， 持股332.61万股；中航新起航则以671.13万股的持仓，新进为道氏技术第六大流通股东。 国庆节后首周仅有两个交易日，上证指数先是站上3900点而后又失守。伴随着较为明显的震荡，机构调 仓换股也即时上演。在科技成长板块略显疲态之际，建材、公用事业等顺周期资产逆市活跃，也引发了 投资者对于市场风格切换的广泛讨论。 根据最新披露的上市公司三季报和相关股份回购公告，多位知名基金经理在管产品的调仓路径也浮出了 水面，恰好为上述讨论提供了些许佐证。 资金流向的背后，是机构投资者的悄然布局。10月10日，A股各大指数集体回调，建筑材料板块却逆市 走强，行业龙头华新水泥（600801）更是强势封板。华新水泥当日披露的回购公告显示，截至9月30 日，朱少醒管理的富国天惠精选成长新进为该股第八大流通股东，持股900.42万股。6月末，该基金仅 持有华新水泥50万股。7月以来，华新水泥累计涨逾70%，可见其间股价的强势表现 ...

2025年以来投资者账户新开户状况表 来源：上交所 10月10日，上交所网站消息，2025年9月A股新开户293.72万户，同比增长60.73%、环比增长10.83%。截至2025年9月末，今年以来A股已累计新开2014.89 万户，同比增长49.64%。 | 日期 | 总数 | A 股 | B股 | 基金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.01 | 177.37 | 157.00 | 0.04 | 20.33 | | 2025.02 | 313.77 | 283.59 | 0.04 | 30.14 | | 2025.03 | 348.53 | 306.55 | 0.05 | 41.93 | | 2025.04 | 213.32 | 192.44 | 0.04 | 20.84 | | 2025.05 | 172.77 | 155.56 | 0.04 | 17.17 | | 2025.06 | 184.73 | 164.64 | 0.06 | 20.04 | | 2025.07 | 212.58 | 196.36 | 0.07 | 16.15 | | 2025.0 ...

分析师：徐至 登记编码：S0730525040001 均衡配置成长与价值风格，防范风格切换 ——月度策略 相关报告 《月度策略：市场波动加大，均衡配置成长与 价值——月度策略》 2025-09-05 《月度策略：建议关注成长与价值轮动带来的 机会——月度策略》 2025-08-07 《月度策略：稳健前行，建议关注消费与红利 资产——月度策略》 2025-07-07 投资要点： 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共21页 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10 号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788 号T1 座22 楼 证券研究报告-月度策略 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 09 日 联系人：李智 ⚫ 宏观方面。从 9 月份公布的经济数据看，当前宏观经济处于"弱 复苏、低通胀"的阶段，政策层面以稳增长与防风险为主。在此背 景下，货币财政政策维持宽松基调，流动性环境保持充裕，叠加市 场对经济企稳的预期逐步形成，从资金供给与情绪层面共同为新增 资金入场提供了有利支撑。 ⚫ 政策层面。9 月 11 日，国务院印 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high of 3936 points, indicating a breakout from a month-long consolidation phase [1][3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by over 51 points at its peak during the day, marking a notable upward trend [1]. - The ChiNext Index continued to reach new highs, reflecting strong market momentum [1]. Reasons for Market Movement - The breakthrough of the 3900-point level was anticipated before the holiday but was delayed due to selling pressure, which was alleviated post-holiday [3]. - The surge in the chip index, particularly driven by leading companies like SMIC and Cambrian, played a crucial role in lifting the market, with SMIC seeing a maximum increase of 9% and Cambrian 6% [3]. Future Market Outlook - Despite the initial strong performance, the chip index showed signs of retreat in the afternoon, with SMIC's gains reversing to a near 1% decline by the end of the day [4]. - The technology sector's decline was countered by resource stocks, particularly those represented by state-owned enterprises, which contributed positively to the index [4]. - There is an expectation of a potential style shift in the market as it enters the fourth quarter, with a focus on monitoring the pressures on the ChiNext and STAR Market [4].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend in the first three quarters, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3,800 points, led by technology growth stocks, while consumer and cyclical stocks performed poorly [1] - According to WIND statistics, only the coal and oil & petrochemical sectors declined among the 31 primary sub-industries in the first three quarters, while the other 29 sectors saw increases, with the top five performing sectors being communication, electronics, non-ferrous metals, media, and comprehensive, all exceeding a 60% increase [1] - The communication sector had a remarkable increase of 105%, and the electronics sector surged by 87%, significantly outperforming other sectors [1] Group 2 - The hospitality, liquor, and food sectors showed weak performance this year, with major companies like Jinjiang Hotels, Kweichow Moutai, and Yili Group experiencing declines of over 12%, 2%, and 6% respectively [1] - The cyclical sectors, including coal and oil & petrochemical, also underperformed, with China Shenhua down 7% and both China Petroleum and China Petrochemical facing declines, the latter by nearly 20% [1] Group 3 - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, market styles are expected to rebalance, with cyclical styles entering a trading window and previously lagging sectors likely to see a rebound [2] - Historical data from Dongwu Securities indicates that sectors that performed well in the first three quarters typically rank lower in the fourth quarter, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics [2] Group 4 - Certain low-valuation and early-cycle sectors are expected to perform better in the fourth quarter, with a historical probability of over 65% for these sectors to rise, and a 60% chance of outperforming the CSI 300 index [3] - Analysts suggest that the technology sector will remain a key focus, with investment themes coexisting, and internal rotations within growth sectors expected to accelerate, particularly in AI applications, solid-state batteries, energy storage, and innovative pharmaceuticals [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market continues to show signs of divergence, with the broad indices rising while many individual stocks are experiencing consecutive declines. The current market structure is more fragmented than usual, making it difficult for traditional investment strategies to achieve stable positive returns [3]. Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21% and the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.07% last week, while the CSI 500 Index saw a 0.98% rise. However, a significant number of stocks in the market have shown two consecutive weekly declines [3]. - The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) remained unchanged in September, indicating limited room for interest rate cuts in the near term, which may not be favorable for the market's high expectations [3]. - Domestic commodity prices have been performing better than overseas prices since August, largely due to the implementation of the "anti-involution" policy [3]. Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to reduce positions to low levels and focus on avoiding the market, particularly in the small-cap sector, as the market style shifts towards large-cap stocks [2][3]. - The technology sector, which has been active recently, may face macroeconomic headwinds due to the stable LPR and stronger domestic industrial prices compared to overseas [3]. - The financial sector, a key representative of large-cap industries, has already entered a phase of continuous adjustment, raising concerns about when the technology growth sector will no longer support the indices [3]. Technical Analysis - There are indications that the market's upward movement is being driven by retail investors, as institutional funds appear to be distributing shares to them, a common characteristic of market tops [4]. - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the basic chemical industry as a potential area of interest [4].

Group 1 - The report highlights that from late June to August, while major indices accelerated upward, the banking sector experienced a decline, with an absolute return decrease of 0.39%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by approximately 16 percentage points, ranking last among all primary industries [2][8][10] - Historical cases, such as the electronics industry in Q4 2014, show that sectors can underperform during bull market acceleration phases due to style shifts, yet still strengthen in the later stages of the bull market [2][13][15] - The report identifies that if a leading sector in a bull market becomes the weakest performer during an acceleration phase, it is often due to changes in market style rather than weak earnings, suggesting potential for recovery in the later stages of the bull market [2][27][28] Group 2 - The banking sector from March to May 2007 was noted as one of the weakest performers during the latter half of the bull market's main upward wave, despite strong overall performance in the financial cycle bull market from 2005 to 2007 [28][34][41] - The communication sector also underperformed during the same period, with a 28% increase compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 53% rise, indicating a mismatch with market style and weak earnings expectations [43][44][48] - The banking sector from May to July 2020 showed weak performance during a bull market, with a 7.8% increase while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 21.4%, attributed to a shift towards small-cap growth stocks [50][55][61]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth and performance of Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (洛阳钼业) in the context of the A-share market, particularly driven by its copper and cobalt production and the rising prices of these metals [1][9]. Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum's revenue was approximately 60 billion yuan before 2013, primarily from domestic operations, but it has since expanded through overseas acquisitions, including significant stakes in copper and cobalt mines in Congo and Ecuador [3]. - By 2024, the company expects to produce 650,000 tons of copper and 114,000 tons of cobalt, marking substantial year-on-year growth of 65% and 106%, respectively [3][10]. Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2024, Luoyang Molybdenum's revenue and net profit have shown compound annual growth rates of 17.2% and 55%, respectively, with the latter growing significantly faster due to the strong performance of its mining operations [3][4]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 94.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.83%, but net profit surged by 60% to 8.67 billion yuan, driven by increased production and favorable pricing [7]. Market Dynamics - The price of copper has risen dramatically from a low of $4,371 per ton in 2020 to $10,064.5 per ton, resulting in improved profitability for the company, with gross profit margins increasing from 7.47% to 21% [4]. - The company has also benefited from a reduction in financial expenses, which fell by 44% due to decreased borrowing and interest rates [7]. Future Outlook - Luoyang Molybdenum's future growth is supported by its strategic resource acquisitions and the anticipated increase in copper and cobalt production over the next five years [10]. - The company is expected to maintain a favorable growth trajectory, with copper prices likely to remain strong due to supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [10][11]. Industry Context - The A-share market has seen significant movements, with the technology and financial sectors leading the way, while cyclical sectors like metals are expected to benefit from a potential shift in market focus [18][22]. - The current valuation of Luoyang Molybdenum, with a PE ratio of 17 and a PB ratio of 3.97, suggests that it remains within a reasonable range without significant bubble risks [23].

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant decline on September 4, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.83%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.25% [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 180.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Index Performance - The ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech 50 Index saw the largest declines, with drops of 4.25% and 6.08% respectively [4] - The average stock price fell by 2.36%, marking a cumulative decline of 5.79% over three days [6] Sector Performance - Retail, food, paper, and photovoltaic sectors showed positive performance, while sectors such as CPO, semiconductors, components, and military industries faced significant declines [2] - Financial sectors, including banks and brokerages, showed signs of recovery in the afternoon, with notable gains in stocks like Agricultural Bank of China, which rose over 5% [8][10] Technology Sector - Technology leading stocks experienced substantial volatility, with major declines in stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang (-13.39%) and Xinyisheng (-15.58%) [15] - Despite the downturn, some analysts believe the mid-term logic for the technology sector remains solid, viewing the current adjustments as strategic opportunities for future investments [16] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There is a prevailing sentiment of market correction, with questions raised about whether the market has reached its peak and how long the adjustment period will last [13] - Analysts suggest that the market is currently in a favorable environment with improved liquidity and potential inflows from global funds, indicating a possibility of steady upward movement in the near term [13]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.16% and 0.65% respectively, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.95% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of over 500 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Market sentiment is nearing a low point, and a rebound will require increased trading volume [2] - Key technical levels to watch include the August 26 high of 3888 points for upward momentum and the August 28 low of 3761 points for potential further declines [2] - The performance of small-cap and micro-cap stocks has been notably weak, particularly in the CSI 1000 Index and CSI 2000 Index [2] Valuation Trends - Recent weeks have seen low valuation stocks outperform high valuation stocks across the A-share market [3] - The valuation gap between small-cap and large-cap stocks remains significant, with historical high ratios in PE valuations between various indices [3] Sector Performance - The communication equipment sector showed some recovery, with a 1.1% increase in the sector index, driven by strong performances from stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication [3] - Zhongji Xuchuang's market capitalization has surpassed that of Dongfang Caifu, marking a shift in the second-largest market cap on the ChiNext [4] Impact of Major Stocks - Major stocks like "Yizhongtian" contributed significantly to the ChiNext Index's performance, indicating their influence on broader market movements [5] - The upcoming Apple product launch is anticipated to impact the performance of consumer electronics stocks, with analysts divided on the potential for a major upgrade cycle driven by the iPhone 17 [5][6] Investment Opportunities - Recent trends suggest that the market's adjustment phase may provide entry points for investors, particularly in small-cap and micro-cap stocks that have seen substantial gains since April 8 [7] - The CPO sector, represented by "Yizhongtian," is crucial for determining the future trajectory of AI hardware stocks, with a focus on key components like CPO, PCB, and AI chips [7]