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宋雪涛:美征收40%转口关税,将如何影响中国出口?
雪涛宏观笔记· 2025-07-23 07:45
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities and challenges of international trade regulations, particularly in the context of U.S.-Vietnam trade relations, highlighting the interplay between tariffs and tax policies under the Trump administration [3][26]. Summary by Sections U.S.-Vietnam Trade Relations - The Trump administration's tax cuts and tariffs are interconnected, with the "Great American Trade Act" signed into law, providing flexibility in negotiations with other countries [3]. - Negotiations with the EU and Japan are more complicated due to deeper interdependencies, while talks with ASEAN countries, particularly Vietnam, are simpler due to power imbalances [3][4]. - Vietnam has proposed several concessions to the U.S., including tariff exemptions and increased purchases of U.S. goods, but the U.S. has imposed a 20% tariff on Vietnamese products and a 40% tariff on goods transiting through Vietnam [3][4]. Tariff Implementation and Regulatory Mechanisms - The U.S. has not clearly defined "transshipment goods," but existing trade regulations suggest that these goods are those exported from countries with special tariff benefits but do not meet U.S. customs origin qualifications [5]. - A collaborative regulatory mechanism is anticipated, where Vietnam will issue origin certificates, and the U.S. will use these for differential tariff policies [5][6]. Vietnam's Origin Rules - Vietnam's origin rules are categorized into preferential and non-preferential rules, with the former requiring a minimum regional value content (RVC) of 40% [7]. - The "Made in Vietnam" certification aims to strengthen origin regulation and combat foreign goods misrepresenting as local products, with a focus on key industries like electronics and textiles [8]. Compliance Risks for Industries - Industries heavily reliant on Chinese materials or simple processing may face higher compliance risks under the new U.S.-Vietnam agreement, while those with substantial local investment will be less affected [13]. - Specific industries, such as machinery, textiles, and basic metals, have LVC values below the 40% threshold, indicating potential challenges in meeting compliance standards [13]. Recommendations for Chinese Enterprises - Chinese companies must assess whether their products fall under U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties, as this will affect their export compliance [21]. - A thorough supply chain analysis is necessary to ensure compliance with U.S. origin requirements, moving from simple assembly to more complex manufacturing processes [22][23]. - Strengthening internal controls and traceability of data is crucial for compliance, enabling companies to provide verifiable documentation during U.S. customs inquiries [24]. - Enhancing professional capabilities to respond to U.S. origin investigations is essential for navigating regulatory challenges effectively [25]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes that trade dynamics are driven by market forces rather than rigid legal frameworks, suggesting that as long as profit opportunities exist, companies will find ways to navigate complex regulations [26][27].