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可转债周度跟踪:评级调整期有望平稳度过-20250629
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-29 13:44
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The convertible bond ratings are expected to be fully announced by June 30, 2025. The recovery of conversion ability supports the performance of the convertible bond market. Most convertible bonds are priced based on the equity nature of the underlying stocks, and the market is unlikely to be disturbed by rating adjustments. However, during the rating announcement period from May to June, market sentiment will be affected, and the valuation center will continue to decline [1]. - The convertible bonds with rating adjustments in 2025 are mostly not the mainstream bonds of institutions, so the impact on the market is relatively limited. The market is in an upward phase, and although rating adjustments impact the performance of convertible bonds on the day of adjustment, the decline amplitude is relatively small [7]. - The recovery of conversion ability is the core reason for the limited credit risk disturbance in 2025. As of now, each rating index has not shown significant adjustments, and low - rated small - cap stocks have greater elasticity. In May - June, the market has a learning effect, and the convertible bond premium rate has significantly decreased. After April 7, small - cap stocks have been in an upward oscillation phase, and the Treasury bond yield has first risen and then fallen. The conversion parity of the convertible bond market is around 90, and the conversion ability has significantly improved [9]. - After the easing of the Middle - East situation, the equity market has seen an improvement in sentiment and has risen above key points. The convertible bond market has performed well driven by the equity market in the past week. The ratings of several key targets of convertible bonds in the photovoltaic industry, which investors are most concerned about, have remained unchanged, and the rating risk has basically landed, with limited impact on the market. In the third quarter, the valuation center of balanced convertible bonds is expected to return to the upward repair channel, and attention should be paid to the refinement of rhythm and target selection. The allocation strategy is recommended to focus on three main lines: strengthening band - trading on a neutral position to improve position flexibility; selecting high - rated, large - cap, bond - biased convertible bonds to build a defensive bottom - position and combining low - priced balanced individual bonds to obtain elastic returns; closely monitoring the windows of redemption, downward adjustment and other clauses and credit rating changes to strengthen the ability to capture clause - game and event - driven returns [10][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1 Market Observation - As of June 27, 2025, 433 convertible bonds have disclosed their 2025 annual ratings, accounting for over 90%. Among them, 32 convertible bonds have had their ratings downgraded, accounting for 7.4%, and the rating adjustment ratio is slightly lower than that in 2024. Another 5 convertible bonds had their ratings downgraded before May, and their ratings remained unchanged in this annual review. Only 5 of these convertible bonds with rating adjustments have a bond balance greater than 1 billion, and their initial ratings are mostly A+ and below, so they are not mainstream bonds of institutions, and the impact on the market is relatively limited [7]. - Taking Wenti Convertible Bond as an example, on June 18, it opened with a decline of over 4%, and its pricing credit rating was downgraded from AA to AA-. Then it repaired upwards. Due to the good overall market sentiment this week, it recovered to above 110, only falling 1 yuan compared to before the rating adjustment. Most convertible bonds with rating adjustments are priced above 115 and are priced based on equity nature, so the decline in the bond floor caused by rating downgrades does not affect the convertible bond price [7]. 2 Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Trends - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indexes in different time periods (near - week, near - two - week, since March, near - one - month, near - two - months, near - half - year, near - one - year), such as the WanDe Convertible Bond Energy Index, WanDe Convertible Bond Materials Index, etc. [16]. 2.2 Individual Convertible Bonds - Information on the top five and bottom five individual convertible bonds in terms of price increase and decrease in the near - week is presented [17][19]. 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - Valuation trend charts of bond - nature, balanced, and equity - nature convertible bonds, as well as the conversion premium rate valuation trend charts of convertible bonds with different parities (90 - 100, 100 - 110, 110 - 120) are provided [21][23][29]. 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - Charts showing the proportion trends of high - priced bonds, low - priced bonds, bonds breaking below the bond floor, and the median price trend of the convertible bond market are provided [32][35][38].