固定收益 | 动态跟踪 转债仓位偏低，看多逻辑不变 可转债市场周观察 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 08 月 26 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | 交易热度新高，估值还未见顶：可转债市 | 2025-08-19 | | --- | --- | | 场周观察 | | | 24Q4 债市的"反向镜像"：固定收益市场 | 2025-08-18 | | 周观察 | | | 2Y~3Y 收益率曲线陡峭可选择骑乘：信用 | 2025-08-18 | | 债市场周观察 | | 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政 ...

与会专家指出，针对核能行业特性，金融机构可通过灵活设计增发、可转债、境内外债券等多元化融资产品，并结合绿色、转型与可持续金融标签，协助包 括中核国际在内的央企拓展融资渠道与国际投资者群体。同时，香港市场完善的制度体系和丰富的国际投资资源，为央企加速海外布局提供了坚实支撑。 会议还就海外监管环境、境外项目风险管理及资本市场建设等议题进行了充分交流。各方一致表示，中核国际与中银国际将以此次研讨会为契机，进一步加 强协作，共同推动中国核能产业链在香港资本市场获得更多支持，为中国核能产业持续健康安全发展贡献力量。 来源：中核国际有限公司 中核集团与中核国际代表介绍了公司在海外资源获取与市场拓展方面的最新进展。作为中核集团打造的天然铀海外平台，中核国际近年来在天然铀贸易、境 外股权合作及资本市场交流等方面奠定业务基础，正持续借助港股平台提升资本运作能力，并通过加强与市场的沟通，提升市场对核能及天然铀行业的关 注。 中银国际代表分享了在天然铀与矿业资本市场领域的实践经验，多次为中外矿业及能源企业完成股权配售、可转债发行等融资项目，积累了丰富的境外矿业 融资与并购服务经验。 8月22日，为贯彻落实国家能源安全战略，积极响应 ...

A股与债市同庆，跷跷板失灵背后的全球联动 今日上午，资本市场上演了一幅罕见的双牛图景——A股与债市居然携手上涨，打破了平日里此消彼长 的"跷跷板"效应。上证指数与中证转债双双拔高逾1%，与此同时，国债收益率却悄然下行1至2个基 点。这不禁让人扼腕，难道市场运行的固有规律在此刻出现了失灵？ 美联储预期引爆全球流动性，国内政策空间悄然打开 令人意想不到的是，这场"股债双涨"的盛宴，其幕后推手竟远在海外。美联储降息预期的突然升温，如 同一把火，瞬间点燃了全球流动性宽松的预期。在此背景下，国内货币政策的空间也随之豁然开朗。过 往，当流动性充裕时，资金往往在股市的风险收益之间抉择，或是涌入股市博取高额回报，或是退守债 市寻求避险。而今天，资金却表现出前所未有的"博爱"，同时惬意地流入了股市与债市。 充裕流动性喂养双市，利率债暖流涌动，股市亦享"温水" 上午，央行不仅开展了6000亿元的一年期MLF操作，还实现了逆回购的净投放。银行间市场资金价格 DR007维持在1.49%的低位，市场资金面异常充裕，完全不存在"缺钱"的烦恼。充沛的流动性犹如甘 霖，最先滋养了债券市场，特别是中短端品种，而股市也随之沐浴在"温水"之中，一 ...

指数创出十年新高，祝贺所有在这个市场中坚持下来的战友们。 正好之前有朋友问投资收益，虽然也清楚自己的大概水平，但因为采用不同的投资策略，资 金分散在多个账户中，投资品种包括基金、股票、转债，有A股、B股，尤其是早些年通过不 同的渠道买了几十个基金，严格的收益统计还真没有做。 于是各种翻箱倒柜，将之前的证券、基金各种数据拉出来，各种计算、估算。发现有些之前 收益统计错了，有些账户密码都忘记了需要重置，有些数据已经查不到了只能估算，有些发 现竟然还有钱。发现数据保留最差的中欧基金，数据都被清零了。支付宝最远只能查到21年 的数据，广发证券14到19年的只能看到一个年度的数据，13年的完成看不到了。实际上我是 12年开始投资基金，13年6月开通广发证券账户。 记得当年最早买的基金是华夏复兴和嘉实服务增值，第一次买的时候怕被骗，没敢在基金管 网上买，是通过银行渠道买的，买完再跑到基金官网查询，发现没问题才敢在基金网站上 买。后面又买了易方达、中欧、富国、兴全、景顺、汇添富等很多基金。之前那些当红老将 的基金大部分我都买过，如富国天惠、天成红利，嘉实优质、服务增值，易方达中小盘、景 顺鼎益、兴全趋势等。这些基金也为我赚 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 债市情绪年内第二次转负 ——债市情绪面周报（8 月第 3 周） 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：债市调整空间有限，关注个券利差挖掘机会 近期债市在权益偏强的情况下有所承压，但我们认为中长期仍将回归基 本面定价，上周五杰克逊霍尔年会释放偏鸽信号，我们预计税期过后资金面不 存在大幅收紧的基础，供给方面央行进行宽货币配合，目前机构行为信号方向 依然给出做多，基金的赎回/卖债力度较为可控，大行持续买债提供短端确定 性，从近期借贷情况来看，我们在上周周报中提示 250210-250215 利差可能走 扩。 ⚫ 卖方观点：债市情绪年内第二次转负，偏空观点机构数量占比近三成 截至本周一，近 3 成固收卖方看空债市，一半持中性态度，情绪较上周下 行，7 家偏多、19 家中性、8 家偏空，债市情绪年内第二次转负，多数机构对 债市维持谨慎/震荡市判断，其中： ⚫ 买方观点：买方超八成看中性 报告日期： 2025-08-25 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：131275320 ...

作为一名具有9年投资经验的债券基金经理，裴禹翔的投资风格鲜明：专注中高等级债券资产，极少做 信用挖掘和信用下沉，对波动和回撤的容忍度较低。在投资中，裴禹翔坚持优选中高等级债券品种，在 组合运作中预设久期中枢，实际久期不偏离中枢过多，避免因市场情绪过热而过度加杠杆、拉长久期， 减少市场调整时的回撤压力。 对于城投债和产业债，裴禹翔有着更细致的筛选标准，城投债优先选行政级别高、财政收入稳定、平台 及关联方现金流健康的主体；产业债则重点看经营现金流、再融资能力，以及产业相关事件性影响。 对于固收+策略产品中"+"的部分，裴禹翔的策略更加谨慎，聚焦权益仓位精准化设置，避免分散化的 低效仓位，只在确定有机会的标的上集中配置。他精选低波动的可转债品种，不做长期配置，仅在特定 标的出现投资机会时阶段性交易，避免受权益市场震荡扰动。 在交易策略上，裴禹翔擅长基于预期差捕捉机会。他举例，当市场因传闻定价时，其判断这些传闻可能 缺乏真实性，于是逆向操作以获取价差收益。 "绝对收益很难做到，因为债券票息水平逐年下行。但我会努力把回撤控制在接近行业中性水平，并在 此基础上尽可能地增厚收益。"裴禹翔表示。 力争多元化与精细化 今年以来 ...

Group 1: Insurance Asset Management Survey Results - The China Insurance Asset Management Association released the investor confidence survey results for the second half of 2025, covering macro environment, market judgment, allocation plans, and return expectations with participation from 122 insurance institutions [1] - Stocks are the preferred investment asset for insurance institutions in the second half of 2025, followed by bonds and securities investment funds, with most institutions expecting asset allocation ratios to remain consistent with early 2025 [1] - A majority of insurance institutions hold a neutral to optimistic view on the bond market, anticipating 10-year government bond yields to range between 1.4% and 1.6%, and high-grade credit bond yields between 1.5% and 2.0% [1] Group 2: A-share Market Outlook - Most insurance institutions are optimistic about the A-share market for the second half of 2025, predicting the Shanghai Composite Index to likely remain between 3200 and 3800 points [2] - Insurance institutions favor stocks related to the CSI 300 index, particularly in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, banking, computing, telecommunications, and national defense [2] - Key investment areas include artificial intelligence, dividend assets, new productivity, high dividend yields, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with corporate earnings growth seen as a major factor influencing the A-share market [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - From January to August 22, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by +17.9%, slightly lower than the +18.3% increase of the CSI All-Share Index. Although the current valuation quantiles of convertible bonds are close to or exceed historical highs, with the equity market on the rise, the subsequent performance of convertible bonds is still worth looking forward to [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - From August 18 to August 22, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by +2.8% (last week's increase was +1.6%), and the CSI All-Share Index rose by +3.9% (last week's increase was +2.9%). The convertible bond market continued to rise, and the increase was greater [1]. - By rating, high-rated bonds (rated AA+ and above), medium-rated bonds (rated AA), and low-rated bonds (rated AA- and below) rose by +3.2%, +3.3%, and +2.8% respectively this week, with low-rated bonds having the smallest increase [1]. - By convertible bond scale, large-scale convertible bonds (bond balance greater than 5 billion yuan), medium-scale convertible bonds (balance between 500 million and 5 billion yuan), and small-scale convertible bonds (balance less than 500 million yuan) rose by +2.5%, +3.2%, and +3.3% respectively this week, with small-scale convertible bonds having the largest increase [1]. - By parity, ultra-high parity bonds (conversion value greater than 130 yuan), high parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 130 yuan), medium parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 110 yuan), low parity bonds (conversion value between 70 and 90 yuan), and ultra-low parity bonds (conversion value less than 70 yuan) rose by +4.0%, +2.9%, +2.6%, +2.4%, and +4.2% respectively this week, with ultra-low parity bonds having the largest increase [2]. Current Convertible Bond Valuation Levels - As of August 22, 2025, there were 450 outstanding convertible bonds (456 at the close of last week), with a balance of 623.836 billion yuan (627.415 billion yuan at the close of last week) [3]. - The average convertible bond price was 134.42 yuan (131.58 yuan last week), with a quantile of 100%; the average convertible bond parity was 106.74 yuan (104.19 yuan last week), with a quantile of 96.9%; the average convertible bond conversion premium rate was 27.8% (28.6% last week), with a quantile of 56.0%. Among them, the conversion premium rate of medium-parity (conversion value between 90 and 110 yuan) convertible bonds was 32.2% (30.8% last week), higher than the median conversion premium rate of medium-parity convertible bonds since 2018 (20.2%) [3]. Convertible Bond Increase Situation - This week, the top 15 convertible bonds in terms of increase were Dongshi Convertible Bond, Jintong Convertible Bond, Huayi Convertible Bond, etc. The increase rates ranged from 11.64% to 90.12%, and the corresponding underlying stocks also had varying degrees of increase [24].

据了解，本次调查覆盖宏观环境、市场判断、配置计划和收益预期四个方面，共有122家保险机构参与，包括36家保险资产管理机构和86家保险公司。 在宏观政策层面，多数保险机构预期下半年货币政策将适度宽松，重点关注适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，以及与财政政策的协调配合，充实完善政策工 具箱；财政政策预期将更加积极，整体偏向扩张，希望能够扩大内需、提振消费，或增加发行超长期特别国债。 A股市场方面，多数保险机构对下半年A股市场持较乐观态度，预计上证综指大概率维持在3200点至3800点之间。下半年，保险机构更为看好沪深300相关股 票，看好医药生物、电子、银行、计算机、通信和国防军工等行业，关注人工智能、红利资产、新质生产力、高分红高股息和创新医药等投资领域，认为企 业盈利增速是影响下半年A股市场的主要因素。 对于下半年债券市场，多数保险机构持中性偏乐观态度。预计10年期国债收益率将在1.4%到1.6%区间，中高等级信用债收益率在1.5%到2.0%区间。下半年 看好超长期特别国债、银行永续债、可转债以及10年期以上信用债，认为经济基本面、货币政策宽松力度和市场流动性将是影响下半年债券市场的主要因 素。（闻辉） 【环球网 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance asset management industry in China is optimistic about the macroeconomic outlook for the second half of 2025, with a focus on key areas such as exports, consumption, fiscal policy, and real estate investment [2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Expectations - Most insurance institutions expect stable economic growth in the second half of 2025, with an emphasis on monitoring exports, consumption, fiscal policy, and real estate investment [2]. - The monetary policy is anticipated to be moderately accommodative, with expectations for timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity [2]. - Fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive and expansionary, aiming to boost domestic demand and consumption, potentially through the issuance of ultra-long special bonds [2]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Preferences - In terms of asset allocation, insurance institutions prefer stocks as their primary investment asset, followed by bonds and securities investment funds [5]. - Most institutions expect their asset allocation ratios to remain consistent with early 2025, with some considering slight increases in stock and bond investments [5]. - The bond market outlook is moderately optimistic, with a focus on ultra-long special bonds, perpetual bonds, convertible bonds, and credit bonds with maturities over 10 years [5]. Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - A majority of insurance institutions hold a positive outlook for the A-share market in the second half of 2025, with 52.78% of asset management institutions and 55.81% of insurance companies expressing optimism [5]. - Expectations for A-share market trends indicate a belief in a fluctuating upward trajectory, with 52.78% of asset management institutions and 59.30% of insurance companies anticipating this movement [5]. - Regarding A-share valuations, 69.44% of asset management institutions and 66.28% of insurance companies consider current valuations to be reasonable, while 25% and 25.58% respectively view them as low [6]. Group 4: Investment Focus Areas - Insurance institutions are particularly interested in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, banking, computing, telecommunications, and national defense [6]. - There is a focus on investment themes including artificial intelligence, dividend assets, new productivity, high dividend yields, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with corporate earnings growth seen as a key factor influencing the A-share market [6]. Group 5: Risk Considerations - The primary risks identified by insurance asset management institutions and insurance companies for the second half of 2025 include asset scarcity, yield pressure, interest rate declines, and asset-liability mismatches [10]. Group 6: Offshore Investment Preferences - Hong Kong stocks are favored for investment in the second half of 2025, with 40% of insurance institutions also showing interest in bond and gold investments [11].