1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market in the producing areas was disturbed by heavy rain, which helped the rubber price continue to rise. The import rubber market reported an increase in offers. Traders rotated and added positions for arbitrage, while factories mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The futures market fluctuated, and the spot offers of domestic natural rubber adjusted narrowly following the market. Downstream orders were weak, with cautious and rigid demand for procurement, and the enthusiasm for actual orders was limited [9]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are gradually opening for tapping. In Yunnan, frequent rainfall has disrupted the raw material output rhythm, and the purchase price has remained firm. In Hainan, there is still local rain disturbance, and the increase in raw material supply on the island has been slow. Driven by the significant rise in the futures and spot markets, the enthusiasm of some processing plants to scramble for raw materials has increased. Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. Overseas supplies arriving at the port and entering storage have increased month - on - month, but the moderate replenishment and wait - and - see attitude of downstream tire enterprises have restricted the port's shipping rate, and the overall spot inventory at Qingdao Port has maintained an upward trend [9]. - In terms of demand, the production schedules of domestic tire maintenance enterprises this week have gradually increased to the normal level, driving the overall capacity utilization rate of enterprises to recover. Currently, the production schedules of enterprises tend to be stable. There is an expected increase in orders in the middle and late part of the month, which is expected to slightly boost the overall operation. Enterprises adjust production flexibly according to their own inventory and order situations. In the short term, the overall operating rate is expected to fluctuate little [9]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,400 - 15,000 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the natural rubber market in the producing areas was affected by heavy rain, which promoted the continuous rise of rubber prices. The import rubber market reported rising offers, traders rotated and added positions for arbitrage, and factories mainly waited and watched. The futures market fluctuated, and the spot offers of domestic natural rubber adjusted narrowly following the market. Downstream orders were weak, with cautious and rigid demand for procurement, and the enthusiasm for actual orders was limited [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually opening for tapping. Yunnan is affected by frequent rainfall, which slows down the raw material output rhythm and keeps the purchase price firm. Hainan still has local rain disturbance, and the increase in raw material supply is slow. Driven by the rise in the futures and spot markets, some processing plants are more enthusiastic about scrambling for raw materials. The spot inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate. Overseas supplies arriving at the port and entering storage have increased, but the wait - and - see attitude of downstream tire enterprises restricts the shipping rate. In terms of demand, the production schedules of tire maintenance enterprises have gradually returned to normal, and the overall capacity utilization rate has recovered. The production schedules are stable, and there is an expected increase in orders in the middle and late part of the month, which is expected to slightly boost the operation. Enterprises adjust production according to their own situations, and the short - term operating rate is expected to fluctuate little [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,400 - 15,000 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,500 - 13,000 [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Trends**: This week, the main futures price of Shanghai rubber closed up with fluctuations, increasing by 3.13% week - on - week; the main contract price of 20 - rubber closed up with fluctuations, increasing by 2.3% week - on - week [12]. - **Spread**: As of July 18, the spread between September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 790, and the spread between August and September contracts of 20 - rubber was - 20 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 18, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 186,640 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 36,691 tons, a decrease of 303 tons from last week [27]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis**: As of July 17, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 14,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of July 17, the basis of 20 - rubber was 195 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: As of July 17, the field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 54.5 (+0.2) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 48.55 (+1) Thai baht/kg. As of July 18, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 32.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars/ton from last week. As of July 17, the latex price in Yunnan was 13,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 13,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week [42][45]. - **Import Volume**: According to customs data, in May 2025, China's natural rubber (including technically specified natural rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.6623 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.25% [48]. - **Inventory at Qingdao Port**: As of July 13, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade at Qingdao Port was 636,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons, with an increase rate of 0.63%. The bonded area inventory was 79,000 tons, with an increase rate of 0.26%; the general trade inventory was 557,400 tons, with an increase rate of 0.69%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber at Qingdao Port increased by 3.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.06 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.18 percentage points [52]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Tire Operating Rate**: As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points. The production schedules of maintenance enterprises within the week gradually returned to normal, driving the overall capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises to recover [55]. - **Tire Exports**: In May 2025, China's tire exports were 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, China's cumulative tire exports were 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 289,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.23% and a year - on - year increase of 8.33%. From January to May, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 1.3353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.94%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. From January to May, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85% [59]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In June 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a slight month - on - month increase of 4% compared with May this year, and about 29% higher than the 71,400 vehicles in the same period last year. Cumulatively, from January to June this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [62].