研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.03.06」 天然橡胶市场周报 3 行情回顾：本周天然橡胶市场海外地缘扰动多空切换，天胶先扬后抑。进口胶市场报盘呈现高位 下行态势，贸易商轮仓换月，套利盘平仓出货，下游刚需采购。周期内期货盘面冲高回落，国产 天然橡胶现货市场报盘随盘面重心同步走低。盘面波动对贸易情绪形成压制，交投延续谨慎态势， 观望氛围浓厚，实单成交活跃度偏低。 行情展望：全球天然橡胶产区进入季节性供应淡季，原料价格坚挺。春节期间海外货源多集中到 港入库，节后到港与入库量明显下降，但胶价涨幅超预期使得下游企业资金避险情绪升温，仅少 量刚需补货，总出库量维持低位，青岛一般贸易库存延续累库状态，但累库幅度环比缩窄。本周 国内轮胎企业开工率环比明显回升，目前多数企业已恢复至常规水平，提振样本企业产能利用率 大幅走高，然而中东地缘冲突升级，中东地区订单出货阻力加大，或将限制轮胎企业产能利用率 提升幅度。 策略建议： ru2605合约短线预计在16500-17500区间波动,nr2 ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2026-03-05 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 16555 105 | -185 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -20 20号胶4-5价差(日,元/吨) | 13370 -125 | -165 -30 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3185 | -20 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 147781 | -4810 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 64528 | 923 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -44385 | -1510 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -9892 | -548 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 115040 | -30 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 50399 | -202 100 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | | | | | ...

2026年 2 月,上海期货交易所天然橡胶主力合约呈现震荡上行 走势。月初开盘在 16610元/吨, 最低 16515 元/吨, 最高 17370 元/ 吨,月末收盘 17155 元/吨,较上月收盘上涨 840 元/吨。月末持仓 174215 手，较上月末增仓 33980 手。 二、 当月现货市场情况 2月现货市场价格整体呈现上涨趋势。根据现货市场数据、中国 天然橡胶现货领先价格从２月２日的 2323.02 美元/吨上涨至２月 27 日的 2469.42 美元/吨,期间最高价达到 2495.63 美元/吨（2 月 26 日）。20 号胶现货价格也从2月2日的 1951.15 美元/吨上涨至２月 27 日的 2073.48 美元/吨。 成文日期：2026年2月27日 研究员：顾小春（从业资格号：F0269198;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0000164) 天然橡胶期货月报 一、行情走势回顾 三、主要影响因素 供应端因素 季节性减产：2月中下旬,泰国、印尼等主产国逐步进入低产季, 叠加局部降雨影响出胶量,原料产出同比偏低。国内云南、海南产 区处于冬季停割期,国产胶供应断档,市场整体呈现供应偏紧格局。 出口量下降：20 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The supply side is tightening as overseas production areas enter the减产季, which provides bottom - support for rubber prices. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream tire factories are shutting down, leading to a temporary weakening of demand. High inventory also suppresses the natural rubber market. The short - term market is in a situation where the tightening supply and weakening demand are intertwined [101][103]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In Q4 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased by 4.7% year - on - year to 58.947 million units, with various sub - markets showing weakness [5]. - In January 2026, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 1.01 million units, a year - on - year increase of about 40% [6]. - In January 2026, the export volume of natural rubber in Cote d'Ivoire decreased by 1.8% year - on - year and 5.8% month - on - month to 163,000 tons [6]. - In 2025, the total export volume of natural rubber and mixed rubber in Indonesia increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and the export volume to China increased by 106% year - on - year [6]. - According to the ANRPC December 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.4% year - on - year to 14.9 million tons, and the consumption is expected to decrease by 0.7% year - on - year to 15.344 million tons [7]. Market Trends - This week, the trends of rubber futures were divergent. RU, NR, and TSR20 on the Singapore Exchange declined, while Japanese rubber rose. On February 6, 2026, the closing price of RU2605 was 16,080 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71%; the closing price of NR2605 was 13,085 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2605 was 187.90 cents/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2605 was 341.50 yen/kg, a month - on - month increase of 3.42% [9][11]. Basis, Spread and Substitute Prices - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: The basis of whole milk - RU05 was - 180 yuan/ton on February 6, 2026, with a month - on - month increase of 14.29% and a year - on - year increase of 69.49%. The 05 - 09 calendar spread was 105 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 22.22% and a year - on - year increase of 165.63% [17]. - **Other Spreads**: RU - NR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads decreased, while RU - BR spread increased. For example, on February 6, 2026, the RU - NR spread was 2,995 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%; the RU - BR spread was 3,230 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.00% [18][20]. - **Substitute Prices**: Affected by the expected decline in downstream demand for butadiene and the expected increase in domestic supply, the high production cost pressure of butadiene rubber has been slightly alleviated. The production capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber has recovered to a high level. Due to the end of pre - holiday stocking and the weakening of cost support, the synthetic rubber futures price has significantly decreased [29]. Fund Flows - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased, and the settled capital increased. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR also decreased, and the settled capital increased. On February 6, 2026, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 17.63, a month - on - month decrease of 12.80%; the settled capital was 6.979 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 5.86%. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR was 19.23, a month - on - month decrease of 2.58%; the settled capital was 2.83 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% [32][34]. Fundamental Data - **Supply** - Weather: The rainy season in southern and northeastern Thailand has basically ended. The rainy season in Hainan and Yunnan in China has also basically ended [37][39]. - Raw Material Prices: As overseas production areas transition to the off - season, the raw material supply is relatively tight, and the procurement prices have generally increased [41]. - Raw Material Spreads: The water - cup spread in Thailand has widened. The domestic production areas are basically in the off - season, and the price update has been suspended [46]. - Upstream Processing Profits: The overall processing profit of rubber in Thailand has declined [47]. - Exports: In December 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month. In January 2026, Indonesia's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month. In November 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased slightly month - on - month. In January 2026, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month. In December 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased month - on - month [58][64][70][72]. - **Demand** - Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory: The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises decreased to varying degrees this week. Full - steel tires accumulated inventory, while semi - steel tires entered the seasonal de - stocking period. On February 6, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tires was 60.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.23%; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 72.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.00% [82][81]. - Tire Exports and Heavy - Duty Truck Sales: In December 2025, the export of full - steel tires decreased slightly month - on - month, while the export of semi - steel tires continued to recover. The sales volume of heavy - duty trucks decreased month - on - month, and the sales volume of passenger cars decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [86]. - Road Transport Turnover: In December 2025, the freight turnover and passenger turnover of road transport decreased month - on - month [87]. - **Inventory** - Spot Inventory: China's natural rubber inventory has increased. The inventory in Qingdao has increased due to the arrival volume. The inbound volume has increased by 6.7% month - on - month. Vietnamese rubber tends to accumulate inventory, while Yunnan generally continues to reduce inventory [95]. - Futures Inventory: On February 6, 2026, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 112,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.03%; the futures inventory of 20 - numbered rubber on the INE was 51,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.89% [98]. This Week's Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23%. China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.281 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [102]. - **Demand**: Many full - steel tire enterprises will gradually enter the Spring Festival holiday around February 10. Some enterprises are in the final stage, and the production has decreased. Semi - steel tire enterprises are stocking up on foreign trade inventory, and the current start - up is good. However, due to the suspension of logistics in some remote areas, there is a shortage of transportation capacity for pre - holiday stocking, which affects the shipment [102]. - **Viewpoint**: The supply side is tightening, and the demand side is under pressure. The short - term natural rubber market is in a situation of long - short entanglement, and the rubber price will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [103]. - **Valuation**: As of Friday, the spread between the main contracts of RU and NR was 3,030 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU was - 980 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton [104]. - **Strategy**: Wait for opportunities to go long on dips for single - side trading. Observe for calendar spread trading. For cross - variety trading, go long on NR and short on RU. If worried about a sharp rise in RU due to a shortage of warehouse receipts, consider buying call options for the 05 and 09 contracts for protection [105].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish and volatile rating for the natural rubber industry [1] Core Viewpoint - Fundamentally, the supply is shrinking as northern Thailand and north - central Vietnam transition to reduced production and suspension. Currently, inventory is high, and the bonded and general trade inventories of natural rubber in Qingdao are starting to be depleted. The expected decrease in arrivals in the next few months will relieve inventory pressure. However, as the holiday approaches, the tire production capacity utilization rate is gradually declining, and the short - term natural rubber price will run with a bearish and volatile trend [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - On February 4, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,175 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 0.86%. The market declined that day. The intended transaction price of the mainstream SCRWF 2024 source in the Shanghai market was 15,900 - 15,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the intended transaction price of the mainstream Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber was 16,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The futures market was weak, and the spot market followed suit. The downstream inquiry atmosphere was average and the market transactions were light. In the producing areas, the spot price decreased slightly while the trading volume was low [1] 2. Supply - Last week, the natural rubber supply showed a downward trend both at home and abroad. Yunnan and Hainan producing areas have fully suspended tapping. Overseas, the weather in Thailand and Vietnam is normal, with northern Thailand having suspended tapping, northeastern Thailand and Vietnam's producing areas approaching the end of the tapping season, and southern Thailand in the peak - production season. Global supply will gradually shift from the peak to the off - season, and the supply pressure will gradually weaken. However, there was still a concentrated arrival in late January in China, and the enthusiasm for rubber purchase by factories was limited after Hainan's suspension. With the supply pressure easing and raw material stockpiling by upstream factories, the raw material price is expected to remain strong, and the cost - side support for rubber is relatively strong. According to the production rules of ANRPC members, production should gradually decline starting from January, and it is very likely to decline in the first quarter. Also, according to past rules, the rubber import volume in January and February is likely to decline [2] 3. Demand - On January 30, 2026, China's semi - steel tire production rate was 74.84%, higher than the historical average of the same period; the all - steel tire production rate was 62.44%, also higher than the historical average. Recently, due to the high prices of various raw materials, some sample enterprises began to arrange the Spring Festival holiday from late January to early February, which led to a decline in the overall production capacity utilization rate. In the tire market, the terminal demand for all - steel tires remained weak. In the short term, inventory replenishment was still cautious. Considering the expected small peak of semi - steel tire shipments before the festival, the overall replenishment enthusiasm was still slightly better than that of all - steel tires. All - steel tire shipments were slow and the finished product inventory was high, so some enterprises might moderately reduce production [3] 4. Inventory - As of the end of January, the inventory of natural rubber in the sample warehouses in Qingdao was 591,200 tons, an increase of 71,800 tons or 13.82% from the end of December 2025, with an accelerating inventory accumulation speed. Among them, the inventory in the bonded area was 105,700 tons, an increase of 20,200 tons or 23.63%; the general trade inventory was 485,500 tons, an increase of 51,600 tons or 11.89%. Although the arrival volume of natural rubber decreased and the downstream operating load was reduced, supply exceeded demand, resulting in inventory accumulation in Qingdao [6] 5. Basis - As of February 4, compared with the rubber spot price with Yunnan as the benchmark, the basis was - 285 yuan/ton. In terms of absolute value, it was lower than the annual average basis, at a historical low and with room for expansion [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Bearish and volatile" [1] Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the short term, the price of natural rubber will fluctuate bearishly, and attention should be paid to the previous high pressure [6] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Performance - On February 4, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,385 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.64% [1] - The intended transaction price of the mainstream supply of 24-year SCRWF in the Shanghai market was 16,050 - 16,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - The intended transaction price of the mainstream supply of Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber was 16,550 - 16,650 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - In the spot market, the futures market fluctuated strongly, and the spot market followed the increase, but the downstream demand was weak and the trading was light [1] 2. Supply - Last week, the supply of natural rubber gradually declined both at home and abroad, and the supply pressure will gradually weaken [2] - The cost of rubber is strongly supported, and the raw material price is expected to remain firm [2] - According to the production rules of ANRPC members, production is expected to decline in the first quarter, and imports are likely to decline in January and February [2] 3. Demand - On January 30, 2026, the operating rates of semi-steel and all-steel tires in China were 74.84% and 62.44% respectively, both higher than the historical average [3] - Due to high raw material costs, some sample enterprises arranged for the Spring Festival holiday from late January to early February, which will lead to a decline in production capacity utilization [3] - The terminal demand for all-steel tires is weak, and the replenishment enthusiasm for semi-steel tires is slightly better [3] 4. Inventory - As of the end of January, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 591,200 tons, an increase of 71,800 tons or 13.82% from the end of December 2025, and the inventory accumulation accelerated [4] - The inventory in the bonded area was 105,700 tons, an increase of 20,200 tons or 23.63% from the end of December 2025 [4] - The general trade inventory was 485,500 tons, an increase of 51,600 tons or 11.89% from the end of December 2025 [4] 5. Basis - As of February 3, the basis was -280 yuan/ton, lower than the annual average and at a historical low, with room for expansion [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market first declined and then rose, with rubber prices closing higher. The domestic main producing areas are in the off - season, while the southern part of Thailand is in the peak production season. Qingdao port inventories continue to accumulate, but the rate of accumulation in general trade has narrowed. The demand from tire enterprises is mixed, with semi - steel tire capacity utilization slightly increasing and all - steel tire capacity utilization slightly decreasing. It is recommended to watch the pressure near the previous highs for the ru2605 and nr2603 contracts and stay on the sidelines for now [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The natural rubber market first declined and then rose, with rubber prices closing higher. In the import rubber market, traders changed positions and closed arbitrage positions, and factories made appropriate low - price purchases. In the domestic spot market, the trading atmosphere was average, and downstream enterprises only had a small amount of rigid demand inquiries with insufficient actual order follow - up [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic main producing areas are in the off - season, and the southern part of Thailand is in the peak production season. Qingdao port inventories continue to accumulate, with African rubber accounting for most of the incoming goods. The inventory in bonded warehouses continues to increase, and the inventory accumulation rate in general trade has narrowed. The willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low prices has improved, and the total outbound volume has increased. The capacity utilization of tire enterprises is expected to be stable with a slight downward trend [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the ru2605 and nr2603 contracts, pay attention to the pressure near the previous highs and stay on the sidelines for now [7]. 3.2. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 3.03% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber rose by 2.75% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated on in detail in the content. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of January 23, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 95, and the spread between the March and April contracts of 20 - rubber was - 30 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 22, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 109,870 tons, an increase of 1,480 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 55,339 tons, a decrease of 1,411 tons from last week [25]. 3.3. Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of January 22, the price of state - owned whole latex was 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [28]. - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of January 22, the basis of 20 - rubber was 530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 970 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - **Thai Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of January 23, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 57.6 (- 0.4) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 53 (+ 0.8) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 17 US dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic Producing Area Raw Material Price**: The Yunnan and Hainan producing areas in China are in the off - season [43]. 3.5. Industry Situation - **Import Volume**: In December 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was 6.6751 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.94% [49]. - **Qingdao Inventory**: As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded warehouse inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26% [53]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of January 22, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points [56]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. The cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [59]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. The heavy - truck market in 2025 ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles [62].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with the accumulation rate narrowing but still at a high level. The inflow of rubber at Qingdao Port shows a seasonal decline, while the downstream rigid demand improves, increasing the overall outflow. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance plans around the New Year's Day holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,700 - 16,400 in the short - term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,700 - 13,250 in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,160 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,015 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,145 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 199,737 lots, up 5,063 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 70,673 lots, up 511 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 55,451 lots, down 2,000 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 13,094 lots, up 1,997 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 105,590 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 57,758 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,910 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,905 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,050 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,000 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 310 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 925 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,320 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 305 yuan/ton, down 246 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60 Thai baht/kg, down 0.09 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 56.35 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 57.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 24 US dollars/ton, up 21 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 16.88 million tons, up 4.27 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 30.22 million tons, up 4.58 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 58.02%, down 1.53 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 65.89%, down 3.46 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 44.62 days, down 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 47.36 days, up 0.31 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.21%, up 0.73 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.54%, down 0.09 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.28%, up 1.52 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.27%, up 1.53 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, an increase of 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of the Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of the all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, with some enterprises having maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday and some continuing to control production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,400 in the short - term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,650 - 13,250 in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,975 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 155 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,840 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 170 yuan. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,135 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 194,674 lots, a decrease of 5,832 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 70,162 lots, a decrease of 402 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 53,451 lots, an increase of 253 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 15,091 lots, a decrease of 268 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 105,590 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 57,758 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,700 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,920 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,910 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, with no change. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,324 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 314 yuan/ton, a decrease of 144 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 60.09 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.13 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 56.35 Thai baht/kg, with no change. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 57 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 24 US dollars/ton, an increase of 21 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 168,800 tons, an increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 302,200 tons, an increase of 45,800 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 58.02%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.89%, a decrease of 3.46 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 44.62 days, a decrease of 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 47.36 days, an increase of 0.31 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13,010,000 pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58,310,000 pieces, an increase of 6,630,000 pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.48%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.64%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.28%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.27%, an increase of 1.53 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and an increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period last year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1,140,000 vehicles. - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, an increase of 19,800 tons or 3.62% compared with the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of the semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 63.78%, a decrease of 2.75 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 13.97 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of the all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a decrease of 2.43 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 3.37 percentage points compared with the same period last year [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the cost support of the natural rubber market strengthened, and rubber prices showed a strong consolidation after surging. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, but the spot purchase price was lower than that of the far - month contracts. Factory restocking was in moderation. The futures market maintained a strong and volatile pattern, and domestic spot prices followed the upward trend. Downstream purchasing willingness was relatively weak, mainly for moderate and necessary restocking, and the overall market trading atmosphere was average with light actual transactions [7]. - The Yunnan rubber - producing area in China is in the non - tapping period, and the Hainan area is at the end of the tapping season. It is expected that the Hainan area will fully enter the non - tapping period next week. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao ports has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory increases, and the total inventory accumulation rate has expanded compared to the previous period. Before the holiday, rubber prices fluctuated at a high level. Some tire enterprises had holiday maintenance and shutdowns. Except for a small amount of restocking at low prices, most enterprises were in a wait - and - see mode, and their purchasing was cautious. The decline in the total outbound volume at Qingdao ports led to a significant increase in the total inventory [7]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. As the maintenance devices gradually resume operation, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly next week [7]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,400 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,250 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The cost support of the natural rubber market strengthened this week. Import rubber offers rose, futures were volatile and strong, and domestic spot prices followed the increase. Downstream purchasing was mainly for necessary restocking, and actual transactions were light [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan is in the non - tapping period, and Hainan is at the end of the tapping season. Qingdao port inventory is accumulating. Before the holiday, rubber prices are high, and tire enterprises' purchasing is cautious. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises decreased this week and may increase slightly next week [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,600 - 16,400, and the nr2603 contract between 12,800 - 13,250 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Trend**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 2.72% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - grade rubber rose by 2.33% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided, only the topics of the top 20 position changes of Shanghai rubber and 20 - grade rubber are mentioned [12][14]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of January 9, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 25, and the spread between the February and March contracts of 20 - grade rubber was - 45 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 9, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 104,490 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - grade rubber were 56,952 tons, a decrease of 1,007 tons from last week [26]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of January 8, the price of state - owned whole latex was 15,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 550 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - **Basis**: As of January 8, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 342 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Thailand**: As of January 9, the field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 56 (+1.8) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 52.2 (+1.1) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 24 US dollars/ton, an increase of 21 US dollars/ton from last week [41]. - **Domestic Producing Areas**: As of January 8, the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the Yunnan producing area was in the non - tapping period [44]. - **Import Volume**: In November 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [47]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons, an increase of 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.80% [51]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [54]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In November 2025, China's tire export volume was 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40 and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, the cumulative tire export volume was 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51% [57]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared to November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles sold [60].