本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15905 | 265 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12785 | 270 | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -105 | -5 20号胶10-11价差(日,元/吨) | -30 | -5 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3115 | -5 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 132930 | 1723 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 57206 | 2876 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -32531 | 3267 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -7221 | 1111 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 178470 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term rainy weather in the production areas continues to affect the release of new rubber, the raw material trend is strong, and the cost support is strong. There is still a bullish sentiment in the market. However, according to Longzhong, downstream enterprises may control production in late August, and the de - stocking speed of spot inventory is expected to slow down, which may suppress the price rebound. Under the game of supply and demand, it is expected that the short - term natural rubber price will maintain a range - bound consolidation [80][81]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - Cambodia's rubber production in the first 7 months of 2025 reached 179,198 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.31%. In July, the production was 36,855 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.37% and a year - on - year increase of 8.99%. The latex export volume decreased by 15.4% to 147,071 tons, but the domestic consumption increased by 76% to 64,978 tons [5]. - Malaysia's natural rubber production in the first half of 2025 decreased by 0.4% to 163,044 tons. In June, the export volume decreased by 25.3% year - on - year, the import volume increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the domestic consumption decreased by 6.4% year - on - year [6]. - In July 2025, China's passenger vehicle production and sales were 229.3 million and 228.7 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and 9.8%, and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 14.7%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 124.3 million and 126.2 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.3% and 27.4% [7]. Market Trends - This week, the domestic and foreign markets continued to rise synchronously. On August 15, 2025, the closing prices of RU2601, NR2601, Singapore TSR20:2601, and Tokyo RSS3:2601 were 15905 yuan/ton, 12815 yuan/ton, 174 cents/kg, and 319.5 yen/kg respectively, with weekly increases of 2.28%, 1.83%, 1.52%, and 0.66% [10][11]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - On August 15, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU was - 1005 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.50% and a year - on - year increase of 36.19%. The 01 - 05 month spread was - 80 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15.79% and a year - on - year increase of 48.39% [20]. Other Spreads - Spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased. On August 15, 2025, the spreads of RU01 - NR01, RU01 - BR01, NR01 - TSR20 01, and RU01 - Tokyo RSS3 01 were 3090 yuan/ton, 4075 yuan/ton, 396.45 yuan/ton, and 292.22 yuan/ton respectively [23][24]. - The spreads of imported rubber to RU decreased. On August 15, 2025, the spreads of Thai mixed rubber - RU01, Malaysian mixed rubber - RU01, 3L - RU01, and African No. 10 rubber - RU01 were - 1255 yuan/ton, - 1305 yuan/ton, - 1005 yuan/ton, and - 3486.45 yuan/ton respectively [27]. - The spread of whole - milk rubber to Thai mixed rubber increased, while the spread of 3L to Thai mixed rubber decreased. On August 15, 2025, the spreads were 250 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 47.06% and - 32.43% respectively [32][33]. Substitute Prices - The price of synthetic rubber increased slightly, with a smaller increase than RU, and the spread between synthetic rubber and RU widened. On August 15, 2025, the prices of Chinese mainstream market butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber were 11700 yuan/ton and 12200 yuan/ton respectively [35][36]. Fund Flows - On August 15, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 10.36, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% and a year - on - year increase of 10.79%. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR was 22.92, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.14% and a year - on - year increase of 256.95%. The settled funds of RU and NR were 58.51 billion yuan and 27.54 billion yuan respectively [38][39]. Fundamental Data Supply - The temperature and rainfall in southern Thailand increased significantly recently. The rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan has eased recently [43][44]. - Due to continuous rainfall in the production areas, the release of new rubber was limited, pushing up the raw material purchase price. On August 15, 2025, the prices of Thai cup rubber, glue, smoked sheets, and raw sheets were 49.8 baht/kg, 54.2 baht/kg, 63.15 baht/kg, and 59.25 baht/kg respectively [46][47]. - The spread between Thai glue and cup rubber and the spread of Hainan glue between concentrated latex factories and whole - milk factories decreased. On August 15, 2025, they were 4.40 baht/kg and 600 yuan/ton respectively [55][56]. - The production profits of Thai standard rubber and smoked sheets and Hainan concentrated latex decreased, while the production profit of Thai concentrated latex increased. On August 15, 2025, they were - 209 yuan/ton, 2543 yuan/ton, 814.13 yuan/ton, and 670.13 yuan/ton respectively [58][59]. - In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the import of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly month - on - month [62][63]. Demand - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.86 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.24 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, with a month - on - month increase of 4.26 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.26 percentage points. Tire inventory increased slightly compared with last week [66][67]. - In June 2025, the exports of full - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The sales volume of heavy - duty trucks improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. In July, the sales volume of passenger vehicles weakened seasonally month - on - month but remained at a high level year - on - year [70][71]. Inventory - This week, the social inventory of natural rubber decreased significantly, with both dark and light rubber decreasing. Qingdao Port had a significant decrease in inventory, while Yunnan and Vietnamese rubber had a slight increase in inventory [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, there was insufficient positive driving force, and the rebound of rubber prices was limited. The import rubber market had active restocking by early buyers, and factory inquiries were based on rigid demand. The spot offer of domestic natural rubber followed the upward trend of the market, but the downstream buying enthusiasm was average, and the actual transactions in the market were mainly based on rigid demand [6]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Continuous rainfall in Yunnan has significantly hindered tapping operations, and the purchase price has remained high and volatile. The weather in Hainan is favorable, and raw material supply has maintained seasonal output. However, the spot market has faced difficulties in price - adding transactions, and some processing plants have become more cautious about high - priced raw materials, with the purchase price of latex stabilizing after rising [6]. - Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao ports has been decreasing, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. The arrival and warehousing of overseas supplies have remained low, and the overall warehousing rate has decreased month - on - month. The decline in rubber prices has stimulated downstream tire enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices to some extent, and the overall outbound volume has increased month - on - month [6]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has fluctuated slightly this week. Some semi - steel tire enterprises have stopped or reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Some overhauled all - steel tire enterprises have resumed work and moderately increased production, driving up the overall capacity utilization rate. However, some enterprises have still arranged overhauls, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may be slightly adjusted, with limited overall fluctuation [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,250 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,800 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the driving force for rubber prices was insufficient, and the rebound was limited. The import rubber market had active restocking, and domestic natural rubber spot prices followed the market upward, but downstream buying was mainly for rigid demand [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has been affected by rainfall, while Hainan has normal weather. Qingdao port inventory is decreasing, and the demand for domestic tires has limited fluctuations [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,250 - 16,000, and the nr2510 contract between 12,300 - 12,800 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trends**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed up this week, with a week - on - week increase of 2.57%. The main contract price of 20 - grade rubber also closed up, with a week - on - week increase of 2% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content is provided in the text. - **Inter - period Spreads**: As of August 8, the spread between September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 975, and the spread between September and October contracts of 20 - grade rubber was - 60 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 8, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 176,320 tons, a decrease of 1,310 tons from last week. The warehouse receipts of 20 - grade rubber were 42,437 tons, an increase of 2,721 tons from last week [25]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices**: As of August 7, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - **Basis Trends**: As of August 7, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 339 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton from last week. The non - standard basis was - 1,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 915 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of August 7, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 54 (- 0.3) Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump price was 48.3 (+ 0.5) Thai baht/kg. As of August 8, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 42 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.6 US dollars/ton from last week [41]. - **Domestic Producing Areas' Raw Material Prices**: As of August 7, the latex price in Yunnan was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from last week [44]. 3.3.2 Import Volume - In June 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical - grade, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47% [47]. 3.3.3 Inventory in Qingdao - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 631,800 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.35%. The bonded area inventory was 75,500 tons, a decline of 0.40%, and the general trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a decline of 1.47%. The warehousing rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 1.66 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points. The warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.01 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.85 percentage points [51]. 3.3.4 Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.93 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points [54]. - **Tire Exports**: In June 2025, China's tire exports were 717,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31%. From January to June, China's cumulative tire exports were 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 279,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.76%. The cumulative exports from January to June were 1.6144 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.62%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 407,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%. The cumulative exports from January to June were 2.3347 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.34% [57]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 15% compared with June and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to July this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-07-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15245 | 240 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13120 | 345 | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -795 | -45 20号胶8-9价差(日,元/吨) | -45 | 0 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2125 | -105 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 129837 | 658 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 66552 | 4347 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -27628 | 3059 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -12345 | -1274 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 186680 | -20 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 37398 14950 | 0 0 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 14850 | ...

1. Investment Rating of the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on natural rubber this week is oscillating with a bullish bias. The supply release expectation has not been fulfilled due to weather disturbances in Thailand, and the raw material support is strong. The demand shows a benign and improving trend in the all - steel tire segment, while the semi - steel tire situation is just satisfactory. The short - term trading of natural rubber will revolve around weather and supply volume, and the macro - economic factors will also impact the market [81]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports increased, with the export volume reaching 471 tons, a 4.5% year - on - year increase, and the export value reaching 83.5 billion yuan, a 4.9% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 102.749 million pieces, a 1.1% year - on - year decrease, and the production from January to June increased by 2% year - on - year to 591.668 million pieces [5]. - In the first half of 2025, Cambodia's latex exports decreased by 20% year - on - year to 112,595 tons, and the income decreased by 2.3% year - on - year to $208 million. However, domestic latex consumption increased by 92% to 53,361 tons. In the same period, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 11.8% year - on - year to 751,672 tons [6]. - In the first half of 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 24.1% year - on - year to 4.075 million tons [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets continued to rise, with the domestic market rising more. On July 18, 2025, the closing price of RU2509.SHF was 14,810 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.13%; the closing price of NR2509.SHF was 12,675 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.30%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2509 was 169.90 cents/kg, with a weekly increase of 2.23%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2509 was 324.40 yen/kg, with a weekly increase of 2.01% [11][12]. - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased. On July 18, 2025, the RU09 - NR09 spread was 2,135 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 8.38%; the RU09 - BR09 spread was 3,115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12.25% [22][23]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - In Thailand, the temperature in the northeast is slightly lower, and the rainfall in the south has eased. In China, Hainan and Yunnan have experienced more rainfall recently, with rainfall in Hainan decreasing month - on - month [42][44]. - Due to the rainy weather in domestic and foreign production areas, the short - term supply has been disrupted, and the price of Thai cup lump has risen significantly, with strong upstream cost support. On July 18, 2025, the price of Thai cup lump was 48.60 baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 1.67% [48][49]. - The Thai water - cup spread and the spread of Hainan latex for concentrated latex factory - for whole - milk factory decreased. On July 18, 2025, the Thai water - cup spread was 5.90 baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 9.23% [56][57]. - The processing profits of Thai standard rubber and concentrated latex recovered, the processing profit of Hainan concentrated latex improved, and the profit of Thai smoked sheets decreased. On July 18, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 42 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 70.42% [59][60]. - In May 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) decreased by 13.35% month - on - month and increased by 30.40% year - on - year. The imports of Thai standard rubber and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber were at a high level [63][64]. 3.3.2 Demand - This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.56%; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.42%. The inventory days of all - steel tires were 40.85 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.44%; the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 46.18 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.92% [67][68]. - In May 2025, the exports of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires increased month - on - month and maintained a good year - on - year performance. In June 2025, the sales volume of passenger cars continued to grow at a high rate, and in May 2025, the sales volume of heavy trucks increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [71][72]. 3.3.3 Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.2952 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14%. The inventory of dark - colored rubber was 797,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.81%; the inventory of light - colored rubber was 497,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.92% [73]. - On July 18, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 186,600 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.09%; the futures and spot inventory was 212,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.32% [77][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market in the producing areas was disturbed by heavy rain, which helped the rubber price continue to rise. The import rubber market reported an increase in offers. Traders rotated and added positions for arbitrage, while factories mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The futures market fluctuated, and the spot offers of domestic natural rubber adjusted narrowly following the market. Downstream orders were weak, with cautious and rigid demand for procurement, and the enthusiasm for actual orders was limited [9]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are gradually opening for tapping. In Yunnan, frequent rainfall has disrupted the raw material output rhythm, and the purchase price has remained firm. In Hainan, there is still local rain disturbance, and the increase in raw material supply on the island has been slow. Driven by the significant rise in the futures and spot markets, the enthusiasm of some processing plants to scramble for raw materials has increased. Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. Overseas supplies arriving at the port and entering storage have increased month - on - month, but the moderate replenishment and wait - and - see attitude of downstream tire enterprises have restricted the port's shipping rate, and the overall spot inventory at Qingdao Port has maintained an upward trend [9]. - In terms of demand, the production schedules of domestic tire maintenance enterprises this week have gradually increased to the normal level, driving the overall capacity utilization rate of enterprises to recover. Currently, the production schedules of enterprises tend to be stable. There is an expected increase in orders in the middle and late part of the month, which is expected to slightly boost the overall operation. Enterprises adjust production flexibly according to their own inventory and order situations. In the short term, the overall operating rate is expected to fluctuate little [9]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,400 - 15,000 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the natural rubber market in the producing areas was affected by heavy rain, which promoted the continuous rise of rubber prices. The import rubber market reported rising offers, traders rotated and added positions for arbitrage, and factories mainly waited and watched. The futures market fluctuated, and the spot offers of domestic natural rubber adjusted narrowly following the market. Downstream orders were weak, with cautious and rigid demand for procurement, and the enthusiasm for actual orders was limited [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually opening for tapping. Yunnan is affected by frequent rainfall, which slows down the raw material output rhythm and keeps the purchase price firm. Hainan still has local rain disturbance, and the increase in raw material supply is slow. Driven by the rise in the futures and spot markets, some processing plants are more enthusiastic about scrambling for raw materials. The spot inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate. Overseas supplies arriving at the port and entering storage have increased, but the wait - and - see attitude of downstream tire enterprises restricts the shipping rate. In terms of demand, the production schedules of tire maintenance enterprises have gradually returned to normal, and the overall capacity utilization rate has recovered. The production schedules are stable, and there is an expected increase in orders in the middle and late part of the month, which is expected to slightly boost the operation. Enterprises adjust production according to their own situations, and the short - term operating rate is expected to fluctuate little [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,400 - 15,000 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,500 - 13,000 [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Trends**: This week, the main futures price of Shanghai rubber closed up with fluctuations, increasing by 3.13% week - on - week; the main contract price of 20 - rubber closed up with fluctuations, increasing by 2.3% week - on - week [12]. - **Spread**: As of July 18, the spread between September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 790, and the spread between August and September contracts of 20 - rubber was - 20 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 18, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 186,640 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 36,691 tons, a decrease of 303 tons from last week [27]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis**: As of July 17, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 14,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of July 17, the basis of 20 - rubber was 195 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: As of July 17, the field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 54.5 (+0.2) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 48.55 (+1) Thai baht/kg. As of July 18, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 32.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars/ton from last week. As of July 17, the latex price in Yunnan was 13,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 13,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week [42][45]. - **Import Volume**: According to customs data, in May 2025, China's natural rubber (including technically specified natural rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.6623 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.25% [48]. - **Inventory at Qingdao Port**: As of July 13, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade at Qingdao Port was 636,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons, with an increase rate of 0.63%. The bonded area inventory was 79,000 tons, with an increase rate of 0.26%; the general trade inventory was 557,400 tons, with an increase rate of 0.69%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber at Qingdao Port increased by 3.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.06 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.18 percentage points [52]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Tire Operating Rate**: As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points. The production schedules of maintenance enterprises within the week gradually returned to normal, driving the overall capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises to recover [55]. - **Tire Exports**: In May 2025, China's tire exports were 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, China's cumulative tire exports were 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 289,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.23% and a year - on - year increase of 8.33%. From January to May, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 1.3353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.94%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. From January to May, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85% [59]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In June 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a slight month - on - month increase of 4% compared with May this year, and about 29% higher than the 71,400 vehicles in the same period last year. Cumulatively, from January to June this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [62].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market was influenced by macro - sentiment, with rubber prices fluctuating. Imported rubber market offer prices rose, but actual transaction prices weakened. Futures prices fluctuated higher with an unstable center. Domestic natural rubber spot prices adjusted slightly, and downstream demand was weak [7]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap. In Yunnan, weather disturbances persist, and raw material acquisition is difficult with firm prices. In Hainan, the resumption of tapping is slow, and raw material supply is limited. Qingdao port's total spot inventory continues to increase significantly, with bonded warehouses slightly reducing inventory and general trade warehouses continuing to accumulate large amounts of inventory. Downstream enterprises are mainly digesting inventory [7]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Next week, as enterprise maintenance ends, production will recover, which will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [7]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,900 - 14,500 in the short - term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market was driven by macro - sentiment, with rubber prices fluctuating. Imported rubber offer prices rose, but actual transaction prices weakened. Futures prices fluctuated higher, and domestic spot prices adjusted slightly. Downstream demand was weak [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap. Yunnan has weather problems, and Hainan's tapping recovery is slow. Qingdao port's inventory is increasing. This week, tire enterprise capacity utilization decreased, and it will recover next week [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,900 - 14,500, and the nr2508 contract between 12,000 - 12,500 in the short - term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 0.28% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber fell by 1.1% week - on - week [12]. - **Spread**: As of July 4, the spread between September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 865, and the spread between August and September contracts of 20 - rubber was 10 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 4, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 188,850 tons, a decrease of 3,110 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 29,736 tons, an increase of 2,118 tons from last week [25]. - **Spot Market** - **Price and Basis**: As of July 3, the price of state - owned whole latex was 14,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of 20 - rubber was 207 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton from last week, and the non - standard basis was - 115 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [31][36]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Thailand**: As of July 3, the price of field latex in Thailand was 54.5 (- 2.5) baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 48.55 (+ 1.4) baht/kg. As of July 4, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 6.6 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.8 dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic**: As of July 3, the price of Yunnan latex was 13,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the price of Hainan fresh latex was 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [43]. - **Import**: In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.6623 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.25% [47]. - **Inventory**: As of June 29, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons, an increase of 2.40%. The bonded area inventory was 80,700 tons, a decrease of 0.62%, and the general trade inventory was 551,400 tons, an increase of 2.85% [51]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Start - up Rate**: As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 15.85 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.96 percentage points [54]. - **Tire Exports**: In May 2025, China's tire exports were 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative tire exports were 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [57]. - **Domestic Demand**: In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June, the cumulative sales of heavy - trucks were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-06-24 动。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13665 | -285 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 11790 | -220 | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -870 | -30 20号胶7-8价差(日,元/吨) | -10 | -40 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 1875 | -65 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 165045 | 8658 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market saw macro - fluctuations and rising raw material prices, leading to a continued increase in the center of rubber prices. The import rubber market reported higher prices, and the domestic natural rubber market price center moved upward. However, downstream buyers were resistant to high prices, resulting in weak market trading [7]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are gradually opening for tapping. In Yunnan, rain has led to a shortage of raw materials and difficulties for processors in procurement, keeping raw material prices firm. In Hainan, although the weather is okay, the seasonal increase in raw materials has been slow due to previous typhoons, and the supply of latex cannot meet the production needs of processors, leading to intensified competition for raw material procurement. Last week, the total inventory at Qingdao Port increased slightly, with a decrease in bonded warehouses and an increase in general trade warehouses. Downstream factories' purchasing enthusiasm was low, and terminal procurement was mostly on - demand, with a decline in shipment volume compared to the previous period [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has shown mixed trends this week. Some enterprises have increased production to meet order demands, while others have suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate is expected to remain basically stable. The production of all - steel tire enterprises is stable, and the resumption of production of some semi - steel tire enterprises has boosted the overall capacity utilization rate [7]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,200 in the short term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,450 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the natural rubber market had macro - fluctuations and rising raw material prices. The import rubber market reported higher prices, and the domestic natural rubber market price center moved upward. The futures market was boosted by macro factors, but downstream buyers were resistant to high prices, resulting in weak trading [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually opening for tapping. Yunnan has a shortage of raw materials, and Hainan's raw material increase is slow. Qingdao Port's inventory has a mixed trend, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to be basically stable in the short term [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,600 - 14,200, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,800 - 12,450 [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed higher with a weekly increase of 0.18%, while the main contract price of 20 - rubber closed lower with a weekly decrease of 0.33% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of June 20, the spread between the September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 835 [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of June 20, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 192,840 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 32,256 tons, a decrease of 2,620 tons from last week [26]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis**: As of June 19, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of Shanghai rubber was 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from last week [31]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of June 19, the basis of 20 - rubber was 98 yuan/ton, a decrease of 164 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - **Upstream**: - **Thailand**: As of June 19, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 57.75 (+1) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 48.3 (+1.7) Thai baht/kg. As of June 20, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 11.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 50.4 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - **Domestic**: As of June 19, the price of Yunnan latex was 13,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from last week [42]. - **Imports**: In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including technical - grade rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) were 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.6623 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.25% [45]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of June 15, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1400 tons or 0.23%. The bonded area inventory was 83,900 tons, a decrease of 1.87%; the general trade inventory was 522,900 tons, an increase of 0.58%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 1.14 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.44 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.82 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.29 percentage points [49]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points [52]. - **Tire Exports**: In May 2025, China's tire exports were 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative tire exports were 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 289,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.23% and a year - on - year increase of 8.33%; from January to May, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 1.3353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.94%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%; from January to May, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85% [55]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new - energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared to April and a year - on - year increase of about 6% compared to 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a slight year - on - year increase of about 1% [58].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Qingdao region's imported natural rubber market is experiencing a weak oscillation after a price increase, with STR20 spot prices reported at $1770-$1785 per ton, up 3.51% from late April, and Thai mixed prices around 14,400 RMB per ton, up 1.55% [1] - In early to mid-May, the market saw price fluctuations due to rising overseas raw material prices, strong futures, and a weaker USD against RMB, which boosted domestic prices [1] - Despite the positive macroeconomic developments from US-China trade negotiations, tire manufacturers maintained a cautious purchasing stance, leading to a lack of market confidence and a subsequent price correction towards the end of May [1] Group 2 - As of mid-May 2025, natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased year-on-year by 16.78% in general trade warehouses and by 29.07% in bonded zones, influenced by lower purchasing activity from tire factories [2] - The market outlook for June suggests potential downward pressure on natural rubber prices due to increased upstream production and a seasonal decline in demand, with a focus on weather conditions affecting rubber tapping [2] - The market sentiment remains cautious due to weakening orders and uncertainties in the macro market, indicating that trading conditions may not improve significantly [5]