Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. The raw material prices are firm during the low - production season, supply is expected to increase as the tapping season begins, demand recovers well, but high inventory and rising bonded - area inventory put pressure on prices [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - On March 30, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,540 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +0.24%. The market price of natural rubber declined. The intended transaction price of the mainstream 24 - year SCRWF in the Shanghai market was 16,350 - 16,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The intended transaction price of the mainstream Vietnam 3L mixed rubber was 16,700 - 16,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] 2. Supply - From January to February 2026, the cumulative import was 1.1065 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,900 tons, or 1.36%. The import volume from January to February 2026 was slightly lower than that in the same period of 2023, ranking second in the same period in history. The international market demand is average, and domestic downstream pre - holiday stocking and arbitrage positions support the high import base. Natural rubber still mainly flows to the Chinese market. Starting from mid - March in the Yunnan production area, the world will enter a new round of tapping season. The high raw material prices stimulate the enthusiasm for tapping, and the expectation of new rubber supply growth in the future is rising [2] 3. Demand - On March 27, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tires in China was 78.30%, and that of all - steel tires was 70.77%, both higher than the average of the same period over the years. The operating rate of tire production lines has recovered, the downstream purchasing intention has increased, and the automobile export drive has exceeded expectations. There may be follow - up purchase orders. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work and the digestion progress under high prices and high inventory. The high price of synthetic rubber stimulates some enterprises to increase the alternative purchase of natural rubber, and the demand side provides some support for prices in the short term [3] 4. Inventory - According to the research data of Zhuochuang Information, in the week of March 27, the inventory of natural rubber in the general trade warehouses in Qingdao was 566,000 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons or 0.78% from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area in Qingdao was 141,900 tons, an increase of 600 tons or 0.42% from the previous period [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, natural rubber is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with a preference for reverse arbitrage strategies. The price of natural rubber is supported by the substitution logic and speculative buying in the market due to the extreme historical price difference between butadiene rubber and natural rubber. However, the demand side faces the expectation of a possible weakening of tire export orders in the second quarter and a potential reduction in future tire production. It is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips and adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy, and maintain the view that the price difference between dark and light rubber will shrink seasonally. Investors should closely monitor the actual trading situation of high - priced butadiene rubber and the cost - side butadiene [100]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In February 2026, global light - vehicle sales decreased by 8.5% year - on - year to 6.04 million units. The sharp contraction in the Chinese market was the key factor for the decline in global sales, while the Western European market showed a positive rebound. The recent Middle East situation poses challenges to global light - vehicle sales [5]. - In the first two months of 2026, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 8.4% year - on - year, with a 10% year - on - year increase in exports to China [5]. - In the first two months of 2026, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 7.4% year - on - year, with a 6% year - on - year decrease in exports to China [6]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, domestic and foreign natural rubber futures generally rose, with NR leading the gains. On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2606, and Tokyo RSS3:2608 were 16,510 yuan/ton, 13,735 yuan/ton, 198.70 cents/kg, and 372.10 yen/kg respectively, with环比 increases of 3.19%, 6.76%, 5.24%, and 1.39% compared to the previous period [8][10]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: On March 27, 2026, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU05 was - 160 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 60% and a year - on - year increase of 62.35%. The 05 - 09 calendar spread was - 45 yuan/ton, with a环比 decrease of 190% and a year - on - year increase of 74.29% [14]. - **Other Spreads**: The spreads of RU - NR and RU - BR decreased, while the spreads of RU - JPX RSS3 and NR - SGX TSR20 increased. The import rubber market's offer first fell and then rose, and the spot price of domestic natural rubber fluctuated widely. The spreads between whole - milk rubber and Thai - mixed rubber, and 3L rubber and Thai - mixed rubber both decreased [16][19][22]. 3.4 Substitute Prices - Due to the continuous impact of the military conflict in the Middle East, the production cost of butadiene rubber has continued to rise. Although the supply price of butadiene rubber has been significantly increased, the production loss situation has not improved. The price difference between high - end and low - end products in the spot market is huge, and downstream terminals are cautious in purchasing [27]. 3.5 Capital Flows - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased, while the settled capital increased. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR increased, and the settled capital also increased [30]. 3.6 Fundamental Data - **Supply** - The main producing areas in Southeast Asia are in the dry season with less rainfall, and the temperature is generally normal, except for slightly higher temperatures in Indonesia. The global supply pressure is relatively limited in the short term as domestic producing areas are gradually entering the tapping season while overseas output is still at a low level [35][39][41]. - Thailand's rubber export volume in February increased seasonally compared to the previous month but decreased slightly year - on - year. The export volume of mixed rubber and smoked sheets increased year - on - year, while that of latex and standard rubber decreased. The export volume to China also showed a similar trend [58][61]. - Indonesia's total natural rubber exports in February increased compared to the previous month, with a significant increase in mixed rubber exports. The export volume to China also increased significantly [64]. - Vietnam's natural rubber exports in February decreased seasonally and year - on - year, and the export volume to China also decreased [67]. - Cote d'Ivoire's total rubber exports in February decreased compared to the previous month, and the export volume to China decreased even more [71]. - From January to February, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and compound rubber) were 1.1065 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.37%. The imports of Vietnamese standard rubber continued to decline, while the imports of Indonesian mixed rubber and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber were at a high level year - on - year [75]. - **Demand** - The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises fluctuated slightly. Driven by price increase news, most enterprises had smooth shipments, and short - term production schedules remained positive. The all - steel tires continued the de - stocking trend, while the semi - steel tires' inventory fluctuated at a high level [81]. - From January to February, the exports of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires were at a high level year - on - year, with year - on - year increases of 13.07% and 8.42% respectively. In February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the sales of heavy - duty trucks and passenger cars decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [82]. - From January to February, the freight turnover of road transportation increased by 5.56% year - on - year, while the passenger turnover decreased by 2.38% year - on - year [85]. - **Inventory** - China's natural rubber inventory continued to decline slightly. The inventory at Qingdao Port changed from a decreasing trend to an increasing trend, especially the general trade shipment volume decreased by 6%. There was a small increase in the Yunnan producing area, and the overseas areas of Thailand and Vietnam were still in the non - tapping period [91]. - As of March 27, 2026, the futures inventory of natural rubber at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 125,400 tons, with a环比 decrease of 0.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.37%. The futures inventory of 20 - number rubber at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 43,600 tons, with a环比 decrease of 9.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.78% [95].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The price of natural rubber is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Rubber raw material prices are firm during the low - production season. As the tapping season begins, supply is expected to increase. Demand is recovering well, but high inventory and rising bonded - area inventory put pressure on prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance On March 26, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,460 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +0.55%. The price center of the natural rubber market remained stable. The intended transaction price of the mainstream 24 - year SCRWF in the Shanghai market was 16,300 - 16,350 yuan/ton, stable compared to the previous trading day. The intended transaction price of the mainstream Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber was 16,750 yuan/ton, also stable compared to the previous trading day [1]. 3.2 Supply From January to February 2026, the cumulative import was 1.1065 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14,900 tons, or 1.36%. The import volume in the first two months of 2026 was slightly lower than that in the same period of 2023, ranking second in the same historical period. The international market demand is average, and domestic downstream pre - holiday stocking and arbitrage trading support the high import base. Natural rubber still mainly flows to the Chinese market. Starting from mid - March in the Yunnan production area, the global natural rubber market will enter a new tapping season. High raw material prices stimulate tapping enthusiasm, and the expectation of increased new rubber supply in the future is rising [2]. 3.3 Demand On March 20, 2026, the开工 rate of semi - steel tires in China was 78.25%, higher than the average of the same period over the years, and the开工 rate of all - steel tires was 70.72%, also higher than the average of the same period over the years. The tire production line's开工 rate has recovered, downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and automobile exports have exceeded expectations. There may be follow - up purchase orders, and attention should be paid to the resumption of work and the digestion progress under high prices and high inventory. Due to the high raw material cost, the profit pressure of upstream and downstream enterprises is prominent, especially the losses in the downstream are intensifying. Some enterprises have shifted to purchasing lower - priced natural rubber to replace synthetic rubber, which provides some short - term support for the demand for natural rubber [3]. 3.4 Inventory As of the week of March 20, the inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 141,300 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons or 1.29% from the previous period. The inventory of natural rubber in the general trade warehouses in the Qingdao area was 561,600 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons or 1.63% from the previous period [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating Weakly" for the natural rubber industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Rubber prices are expected to show a weak and oscillating trend due to the expected increase in supply as the rubber tapping season begins, good demand recovery, but high inventory and rising bonded area inventory putting pressure on prices [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On March 18, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,400 yuan/ton, with a daily change of -2.55% [1] 3.2 Supply - Global natural rubber producing areas have normal weather this year. Starting from the Yunnan production area in mid - March, the world will enter a new round of rubber tapping season. High raw material prices stimulate tapping enthusiasm, and the expectation of new rubber supply growth in the future is rising [2] 3.3 Demand - On March 13, 2026, the operating rate of China's semi - steel tires was 77.71%, higher than the historical average for the same period; the operating rate of full - steel tires was 70.22%, also higher than the historical average for the same period. The operating rate of tire production lines has recovered, downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and automobile exports have exceeded expectations. However, the intensifying situation in Iran has increased market risk - aversion sentiment, and rising shipping costs are not conducive to the recovery of the demand side [3] 3.4 Inventory - According to Zhuochuang Information's research data, in the week of March 13, the inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 139,500 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons from the previous period, a rise of 4.26%. The inventory of natural rubber in general trade warehouses in Qingdao was 552,600 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.67% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port decreased slightly, with the bonded warehouse continuing to accumulate inventory and the general trade warehouse reducing inventory. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease slightly in the short term [2]. - The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly last week, and the production schedules of each tire enterprise have basically returned to the normal level, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. The export of tire enterprises in some regions is still facing resistance due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, and there is a possibility of a slight decline. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,700 - 17,500, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 16,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 13,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan [2]. - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 133,055 lots, a decrease of 1,814 lots; the trading volume of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 61,564 lots, a decrease of 2,826 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 45,830 lots, an increase of 453 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8,457 lots, an increase of 481 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 123,980 tons, an increase of 3,180 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 48,787 tons, a decrease of 504 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Vietnam 3L in the Shanghai market was 17,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 2,020 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 2,015 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 was 16,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 was 15,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 1,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 79 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 410 yuan/ton, an increase of 104 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 74.1 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1.53 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 69.55 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1.7 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 72.3 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 199,300 tons, an increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 396,300 tons, an increase of 94,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 70.22%, an increase of 4.32 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 77.71%, an increase of 3.68 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong was 43.91 days, a decrease of 1.88 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong was 43.84 days, an increase of 0.74 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, an increase of 1.29 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 23.08%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.15%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 32.07%, an increase of 1.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 32.06%, an increase of 1.79 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 75,000 units, a decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a decrease of about 8% compared with the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [2]. - As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port (bonded and general trade) was 677,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 0.42%. The inventory in the bonded area was 121,300 tons, an increase of 1.43%; the inventory in general trade was 556,300 tons, a decrease of 0.81% [2]. - As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber产区 is in the seasonal supply off - season with firm raw material prices. Recently, bonded warehouses at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate inventory, while general trade warehouses reduced inventory, resulting in a slight overall increase in inventory. - Overseas has entered the seasonal low - production season, the arrival of US - dollar standard rubber at the port is decreasing, synthetic rubber is strengthening, and after the Spring Festival, tire enterprises resumed production, leading to an increase in natural rubber buying and an increase in the outbound volume of Qingdao Port warehouses, with a significantly narrowed inventory accumulation compared to the previous period. - This week, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly, and the current production scheduling of each tire enterprise has basically returned to the normal level, supporting the overall enterprise capacity utilization rate. The internal and external sales of semi - steel tire enterprises are relatively stable, with relatively average overall shipment performance, while the domestic sales of all - steel tire enterprises are active, and the inventory reduction rhythm has accelerated. - Due to the uncertainties in the Middle East geopolitical conflict, there are still export resistances in some regions for tire enterprises, and there is an expectation of a slight decline. Enterprises will flexibly adjust the production scheduling ratio of internal and external sales according to their own order situations. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,850 - 17,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 17,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 13,635 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton; the 4 - 5 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 135 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton. - The price difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 141,956 lots, a decrease of 1,654 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 68,133 lots, an increase of 719 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 44,771 lots, a decrease of 3,299 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8,101 lots, a decrease of 1,029 lots. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 120,540 tons, unchanged; the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 49,795 tons, unchanged. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 17,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 17,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 2,055 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 2,050 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 15,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,200 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 15,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 185 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 14,038 yuan/ton, an increase of 68 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 318 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) was 72.4 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.51 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) was 67.85 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.15 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 70.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.4 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 17 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 11 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 199,300 tons, an increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 396,300 tons, an increase of 94,100 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.9%, an increase of 36.73 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.03%, an increase of 39.47 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 45.79 days, a decrease of 1.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 43.1 days, a decrease of 0.99 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, an increase of 1.29 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.75%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.65%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 31.44%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 31.03%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points. [2] Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from the 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The double - decline of the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival month. - As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 680,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons, a growth rate of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 119,600 tons, a growth rate of 1.27%; the general trade inventory was 560,900 tons, a decrease of 0.18%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 4.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.70 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.89 percentage points. - As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points. [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the fundamentals of the rubber market, including futures and spot market data, and points out that the Middle - East situation is the dominant factor affecting the market, with continued market concerns [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily - closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,895 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan from the previous day), the night - closing price was 16,830 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan), the trading volume was 607,728 lots (up 376,318 lots), the position of the 05 contract was 144,455 lots (down 5,268 lots), the warehouse receipt quantity was 120,540 tons (up 3,000 tons), and the net short position of the top 20 members was 27,878 lots (up 4,096 lots) [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main" was - 145 (down 10), the basis of "mixed - futures main" was - 1,145 (down 30), the month - spread of RU05 - RU09 was 120 (up 35), and the prices of various external quotes and substitutes all increased to varying degrees [1] - **Spot Market**: The prices of various rubber varieties in the spot market, such as imported rubber in the Qingdao market, also showed an upward trend [1] Industry News - As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 68.04 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 million tons (0.07% increase). The bonded area inventory increased by 1.27%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.18%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 4.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.70 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.89 percentage points [2][3] - The production of semi - steel tire enterprises is relatively stable. Some enterprises have obvious domestic sales shortages due to production scheduling. In order to replenish inventory, short - term production will remain at a high level. However, due to geopolitical factors, there are still obstacles to foreign trade shipments [3] - The natural rubber market continued to rise yesterday, but the increase slightly narrowed. The Middle - East situation is still the dominant factor affecting the market, and market concerns persist [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rubber is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - This week, the overseas geopolitical situation in the natural rubber market caused the prices to first rise and then fall. The import rubber market showed a downward trend from high levels. Futures prices on the disk fluctuated, and the spot market prices of domestic natural rubber also declined. The trading atmosphere was cautious, and actual transactions were not active [7]. - The global natural rubber production areas have entered the seasonal supply off - season, and raw material prices are firm. After the Spring Festival, the arrival and storage of overseas goods decreased. Although the tire enterprise start - up rate has rebounded significantly, the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict may limit the increase in tire enterprise capacity utilization [7]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 14,000 in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Overseas geopolitical factors in the natural rubber market led to a first - up - then - down trend. Import rubber prices declined from high levels, and the spot market of domestic natural rubber followed the futures price drop. Trading was cautious [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The global natural rubber production areas are in the supply off - season, with firm raw material prices. After the Spring Festival, the arrival and storage of goods decreased, but the high rubber price made downstream enterprises more risk - averse. The tire enterprise start - up rate has rebounded, but the Middle East conflict may limit capacity utilization [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 16,500 and 17,500, and the nr2605 contract between 13,400 and 14,000 in the short term [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 1.87% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber fell by 2.09% week - on - week [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of March 6, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 85, and the spread between the April and May contracts of 20 - rubber was - 125 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 6, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 117,540 tons, an increase of 3,070 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 50,399 tons, a decrease of 202 tons from last week [25]. Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of March 5, the price of state - owned full - latex was 16,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from last week [32]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of March 5, the basis of 20 - rubber was 455 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1,035 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Thailand Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of March 6, the field glue price in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 69 (+0.7) Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 57 (+0) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 17 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 11 US dollars/ton from last week [41]. - **Domestic Production Area Raw Material Prices**: The Yunnan and Hainan production areas in China are in the off - season [44]. Import - In December 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [50]. Inventory - As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 679,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,200 tons, an increase of 1.82%. The bonded area inventory was 118,100 tons, an increase of 6.52%; the general trade inventory was 561,800 tons, an increase of 0.89%. The inventory in both bonded and general trade warehouses increased, but the increase rate was significantly narrower than the previous period [53]. Downstream - **Tire Start - up Rate**: As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. However, the escalation of the Middle East conflict may limit the increase in capacity utilization [56]. - **Tire Exports**: In December 2025, China's tire exports were 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative tire exports were 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 251,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.79%; the cumulative exports from January to December were 3.2154 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.27%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 413,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.40%; the cumulative exports from January to December were 4.8586 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.87% [59]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - duty Trucks)**: In February 2026, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February, the cumulative sales of the heavy - duty truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in February was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations. It is expected that the wholesale sales in March will achieve a slight year - on - year increase [62]. 4. Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber producing areas have entered a seasonal supply off - season, with firm raw material prices. The total inventory in Qingdao ports (bonded and general trade) is accumulating, but the accumulation amplitude has significantly narrowed compared to the previous period. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has rebounded significantly this week, and most enterprises have returned to normal levels, boosting the capacity utilization rate. However, the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,200 - 17,000 yuan/ton in the short - term, and the 20 - number rubber contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,150 - 13,650 yuan/ton in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,555 yuan/ton, with a month - to - month difference of - 185 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,370 yuan/ton, with a month - to - month difference of - 165 yuan/ton. The price difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,185 yuan/ton, and the position of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 4,810 hands to 147,781 hands, while the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract increased by 923 hands to 64,528 hands. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 1,510 to - 44,385, and the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber decreased by 548 to - 9,892. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 30 tons to 115,040 tons, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber decreased by 202 tons to 50,399 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole - latex in the Shanghai market is 10,000 yuan/ton, the price of Vietnamese 3L is not provided; the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,670 US dollars/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,690 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,650 yuan/ton, and the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,600 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 13,400 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber is 145 yuan/ton, and the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,090 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,928 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 558 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The reference price of Thai raw rubber smoke sheets is 70.88 Thai baht/kg, and the reference price of Thai raw rubber films is 67.51 Thai baht/kg; the reference price of Thai raw rubber glue is 69 Thai baht/kg, and the reference price of Thai raw rubber cup glue is 52.95 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, and the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 6 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 29.17% (weekly), an increase of 14.97 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 34.56% (weekly), an increase of 20.32 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.04 days (weekly), a decrease of 0.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 44.09 days (weekly), a decrease of 0.34 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million, a decrease of 150,000; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million, an increase of 1.29 million [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 26.08% (daily), an increase of 0.2 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.61% (daily), an increase of 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 27.42% (daily), an increase of 1.85 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 27.42% (daily), an increase of 1.87 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The double - decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival. As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 679,900 tons, a 1.82% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 118,100 tons, an increase of 6.52%, and the general trade inventory was 561,800 tons, an increase of 0.89% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In March 2026, the natural rubber market is expected to maintain a volatile and bullish trend, but the upside space may be limited. Supply and demand factors, as well as macro - economic and technical aspects, all have an impact on the market. Key factors such as weather in major producing countries, tire enterprise resumption progress, import data, inventory changes, and macro - economic policies need to be focused on [3][4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Market Trend Review - In February 2026, the main contract of natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed a volatile upward trend. The opening price at the beginning of the month was 16,610 yuan/ton, the lowest was 16,515 yuan/ton, the highest was 17,370 yuan/ton, and the closing price at the end of the month was 17,155 yuan/ton, up 840 yuan/ton from the previous month. The end - of - month position was 174,215 lots, an increase of 33,980 lots from the end of the previous month [1] 2. Spot Market Situation in the Current Month - In February, the spot market price showed an overall upward trend. The leading price of Chinese natural rubber spot rose from $2,323.02/ton on February 2 to $2,469.42/ton on February 27, with a maximum of $2,495.63/ton on February 26. The price of 20 - grade rubber spot also rose from $1,951.15/ton on February 2 to $2,073.48/ton on February 27 [1] 3. Main Influencing Factors Supply - side Factors - Seasonal production reduction: In mid - to - late February, major producing countries such as Thailand and Indonesia gradually entered the low - production season. Coupled with local rainfall affecting the rubber output, the raw material output was lower than the same period last year. Domestic production areas in Yunnan and Hainan were in the winter suspension period, resulting in a supply - tight pattern [1] - Decrease in export volume: In January 2026, Thailand's natural rubber export volume was 371,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 73,400 tons, a decline of 16.51%, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.43%, which supported the price [2] - Inventory change: As of February 27, the natural rubber inventory increased by 400 tons to 124,980 tons [2] Demand - side Factors - Tire industry operating rate: On February 13, 2026, the operating rate of China's semi - steel tires was 59.44%, higher than the average of the same period over the years, indicating certain support from downstream demand [3] - Demand growth expectation: The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) expects the natural rubber demand in 2026 to increase by 1.7% to 1.56 billion tons [3] Market sentiment Factors - Impact of the Spring Festival holiday: During the Spring Festival, the overseas natural rubber futures prices showed a trend of first falling and then rising. As of February 23, the settlement price of the Singapore TSR20 main 2605 contract was 194.4 cents/kg, up 2.2 cents/kg from the last trading day before the holiday, a rise of 1.14%; the closing price of the Japanese rubber main 2607 contract was 356.4 yen/kg, up 9.3 yen/kg from the last trading day before the holiday, a rise of 2.68% [3] 4. Short - term Outlook Supply - In March, the seasonal increase in natural rubber imports and the seasonal recovery of demand may lead to relatively stable inventory. Southeast Asian major producing countries are still in the low - production season, and the tight supply of raw materials is difficult to improve significantly, with strong cost - side support. Domestic production areas are still in the suspension period, and the supply of domestic rubber is limited [3] Demand - After the Spring Festival, downstream tire enterprises will gradually resume work and production, and the rigid demand for procurement is expected to increase, which will support the natural rubber price. The continuous development of the new energy vehicle industry will drive the growth of tire demand and boost natural rubber consumption [3] Macro - economy - The global monetary easing cycle and the overall valuation increase of commodities may have a positive impact on the natural rubber price. However, the impact of the macro - economic recovery process and policy changes on market sentiment needs to be noted [4] Technical Aspect - The Shanghai rubber price has broken through the previous range and started a volatile upward trend, with an obvious increase in the price bottom. However, the risk of a high - level correction should be vigilant, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough of key positions and changes in trading volume [4] Key Factors to Focus on - Weather changes and rubber - tapping conditions in major producing countries, the resumption progress of domestic tire enterprises, natural rubber import data, inventory changes, and macro - economic policy trends. In addition, the price trend of synthetic rubber and its substitution effect on natural rubber also need to be noted [4][5]