国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【统计局：中国10月外胎产量同比下降2.5%】据国家统计局最新公布的数据显示，2025年10月中国橡胶轮胎外胎产量为9795.1万条，同比下降2.5%。1- 10月橡胶轮胎外胎产量较上年同期增1%至9.96421亿条。 2.【中国前10个月轮胎出口量同比增长3.8%】据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%； 出口金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Natural Rubber Market Weekly Report [3] - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market showed a divergence in the trends of light and dark rubber, with rubber prices rising and falling. The buying sentiment in the imported rubber market was weak, while the spot price of domestic natural rubber increased. The futures market fluctuated upwards, improving the trading sentiment [9]. - In the near future, the weather in Yunnan has improved, reducing the impact on rubber tapping. Driven by winter storage demand, concentrated latex factories have raised prices to purchase raw materials. In Hainan, the weather is fair, but the temperature has dropped, leading to a decline in the dry content of latex. Local processing plants have entered the winter storage phase and continue to offer higher prices for raw materials [9]. - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to increase. The bonded warehouse is experiencing destocking, while the general trade inventory continues to rise. Overseas shipments to the port remain at a high level. Factories replenished their stocks earlier, and most of the out - bound goods from the general trade warehouse are for previous orders. The downstream's willingness to stock up is low, and there are few new orders [9]. - In terms of demand, tire companies' orders are insufficient. Some companies have scheduled maintenance, and others are operating at reduced capacity, dragging down the tire production capacity utilization rate. As the production of maintenance companies gradually resumes, the production capacity utilization rate of tire companies may show a restorative increase next week, but the overall demand improvement is limited, and companies will continue to control production [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,700 [9]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market showed a divergence in the trends of light and dark rubber, with rubber prices rising and falling. The buying sentiment in the imported rubber market was weak, while the spot price of domestic natural rubber increased. The futures market fluctuated upwards, improving the trading sentiment [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The weather in Yunnan has improved, and winter storage demand has led to price increases for raw materials. In Hainan, the temperature has dropped, and local processing plants are in the winter storage phase. Qingdao Port's total inventory continues to increase, with the bonded warehouse destocking and general trade inventory rising. Tire companies' orders are insufficient, but production capacity utilization may recover slightly next week [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,700 [9]. 4.2 Futures and Spot Markets 4.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed up with a weekly increase of 0.16%, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber also closed up with a weekly increase of 0.16% [12]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific position analysis results are provided in the text. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of November 21, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 80, and the spread between 20 - rubber 1 - 2 was - 15 [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 20, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 39,600 tons, a decrease of 68,870 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 49,795 tons, an increase of 100 tons from last week [27]. 4.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of November 20, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 14,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [31]. - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of November 20, the 20 - rubber basis was 773 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 4.3 Industry Situation 4.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of November 21, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 57 (+0.7) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 52.95 (+0.85) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 32.2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 18.6 US dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic Production Area Raw Material Price**: As of November 20, the latex price in Yunnan was 14,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [43]. 4.3.2 Import - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) imports were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [47]. 4.3.3 Qingdao Inventory - As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 0.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.71 percentage points [50]. 4.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization**: As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [53]. - **Tire Exports**: In October 2025, China's tire exports were 653,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative tire exports were 7.0438 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 225,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 2.7266 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%; the exports of truck and bus tires were 398,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.85%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 4.0265 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [56]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In October 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September this year and a significant year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas raw material prices are slowing down in their upward trend, and with the external macro - positive news being fully priced in, the rubber price center is adjusting downward. However, in the short term, concentrated rainfall in domestic and overseas production areas affects rubber tapping and output release, and the Yunnan production area in China is transitioning to the production - reduction stage due to a decrease in "dry content", which strongly supports the rubber price from falling. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate around 15,000 yuan/ton [110]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - In the first three quarters of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year, with a 17.7% year - on - year and 16.1% month - on - month increase in September [5]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and exports to China increased by 26% year - on - year [6]. - Myanmar is implementing a plan to increase rubber yield per acre to over 1,000 pounds, which may increase export revenue by about $1 billion [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, the domestic and foreign rubber markets showed a differentiated trend. The domestic NR led the decline, while the foreign market rose slightly. On October 31, 2025, the closing price of RU2601 was 15,085 yuan/ton, down 1.63% from the previous period; the closing price of NR2601 was 12,240 yuan/ton, down 2.12% [10][12]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - The basis of whole milk - RU01 was - 485 yuan/ton on October 31, 2025, up 23.62% from the previous period; the 01 - 05 month spread was - 70 yuan/ton, down 27.27% [18]. - The RU - NR and RU - BR spreads increased, while the NR - SGX TSR20 and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads decreased [22]. - The import rubber market offer rose this week. The spot offer of domestic natural rubber adjusted slightly with the market. The downstream maintained a rigid demand replenishment rhythm [25]. - The whole milk - Thai mixed rubber spread and the 3L - Thai mixed rubber spread increased [28]. 3.4 Substitute Prices - The price of the raw material end of substitutes decreased, and the market bearish sentiment increased. The offer of some brands of two - oil butadiene rubber was firm, but the negotiation center of private resources decreased. The supply price of two - oil butadiene rubber was under pressure to decline [35]. 3.5 Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU increased, and the settled funds decreased. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased, and the settled funds decreased [38]. 3.6 Fundamental Data 3.6.1 Supply - In the Thai production area, rainfall in the south improved compared with last week, and rainfall in the northeast decreased seasonally. In the domestic production area, rainfall in Hainan increased in the second half of the week, and rainfall in Yunnan decreased seasonally [43][45]. - Affected by typhoons and heavy rainfall, raw material release in overseas and domestic production areas was blocked, and raw material procurement prices were high [47]. - The Thai water - cup spread and the spread of Hainan glue entering the concentrated latex factory and the whole milk factory increased [55]. - Due to the increase in raw material prices, processing profits decreased. The delivery profits in Hainan and Yunnan decreased [56][61]. - In September 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month, with a large year - on - year decrease in standard rubber exports and a large increase in smoked sheet exports [67]. - In September 2025, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, while exports to China decreased month - on - month [73]. - In August 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and exports of standard rubber and latex to China continued to grow strongly [77]. - In September 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports continued to grow strongly, and exports to China increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [80]. - In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, up 14.41% month - on - month and 20.92% year - on - year [84]. 3.6.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of China's tire enterprises decreased slightly this week. The inventory of all - steel tires stopped accumulating, and the inventory of semi - steel tires decreased slightly [89]. - In September 2025, exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month, but all - steel tire exports were still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Heavy - truck sales and passenger - car sales continued to grow year - on - year and month - on - month [90]. - In September 2025, the freight turnover of road transportation improved year - on - year and month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [93]. 3.6.3 Inventory - This week, the inventory of natural rubber continued to decline in both dark and light varieties, with a significant decline in light - colored rubber. The inventory reduction in Qingdao slowed down [101]. - The futures inventory of natural rubber in the previous period decreased, while the futures inventory of 20 - numbered rubber in Shanghai International Energy increased [107]. 3.7 This Week's View Summary - Supply: Overseas raw material prices have slowed down in their upward trend. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased [110]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises decreased slightly this week [110]. - View: The rubber price center is expected to adjust downward, but it is strongly supported from falling. The futures price is expected to fluctuate around 15,000 yuan/ton [110]. - Strategy: Wait patiently for low - buying opportunities for single - side trading; observe for inter - period, inter - variety trading; consider selling 14,000 put options and building positions in batches for options trading [111].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market had a cluster of positive factors, and rubber prices rose strongly. The import rubber market's offer prices increased, but the factory's inventory - building sentiment was weak. The futures market maintained a strong and volatile pattern, and domestic natural rubber spot prices followed the upward trend. The downstream purchasing willingness was fairly weak, mainly for moderate and necessary restocking, and the overall market trading atmosphere was average, with actual transactions being light [9]. - Globally, natural rubber - producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, tapping is normal, and raw material supply is okay. Driven by the strong futures and spot markets, raw material purchase prices remain firm. In Hainan, continuous rainy weather has disrupted tapping operations, with limited fresh latex output and low raw material purchase volume by local rubber processing plants [9]. - The total inventory at Qingdao Port is decreasing. Both bonded and general - trade warehouses are seeing inventory reduction, with the reduction in general - trade warehouses exceeding expectations. After the holiday, tire companies' capacity utilization has recovered, leading to an increase in提货 volume from general - trade warehouses. Coupled with the improved restocking sentiment due to falling rubber prices, the overall warehouse outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume [9]. - In terms of demand, domestic tire companies' production schedules have mostly returned to normal levels this week, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Semi - steel tire companies' production schedules are mostly stable, and with concentrated snow - tire orders, production enthusiasm is expected to remain high. Full - steel tire companies' shipments are stable, and most companies' production schedules are expected to remain stable, with overall capacity utilization expected to fluctuate slightly [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,620 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,800 in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market had positive factors this week, with rubber prices rising strongly. The import rubber market's offer prices increased, but factory inventory - building sentiment was weak. The futures market was strong and volatile, and domestic natural rubber spot prices followed the upward trend. Downstream purchasing was mainly for necessary restocking, and actual transactions were light [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber - producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has normal tapping and okay raw material supply, while Hainan has limited raw material output due to weather. Qingdao Port's inventory is decreasing. Tire companies' capacity utilization has recovered, and demand is expected to keep overall capacity utilization fluctuating slightly [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,620 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract between 12,300 - 12,800 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Trends**: The main contract price of Shanghai - traded rubber futures rose by 4.36% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - numbered rubber futures rose by 2.29% [12]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the changes in the top 20 positions of Shanghai - traded rubber and 20 - numbered rubber [15][17]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of October 24, the spread between the January and May contracts of Shanghai - traded rubber was - 55, and the spread between the November and December contracts of 20 - numbered rubber was - 15 [23]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 24, Shanghai - traded rubber warehouse receipts were 124,020 tons, a decrease of 10,980 tons from last week; 20 - numbered rubber warehouse receipts were 42,640 tons, an increase of 2,521 tons from last week [28]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of October 23, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - **20 - numbered Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of October 23, the basis of 20 - numbered rubber was 818 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 345 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - **Thailand**: As of October 24, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 54.5 (+0.4) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 52.4 (+2.2) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 51 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.6 US dollars/ton from last week [42]. - **Domestic Producing Areas**: As of October 23, the price of latex in Yunnan was 13,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week; the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 13,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [45]. - **Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [48]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general - trade warehouses in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 4.07%. The bonded - area inventory was 69,600 tons, a decline of 1.70%; the general - trade inventory was 367,900 tons, a decline of 4.51% [52]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of October 23, the capacity utilization of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points [55]. - **Tire Exports**: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, the cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88% [59]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new - energy vehicles), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [62]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market saw the exhaustion of previous positive factors, leading to a continued decline in rubber prices. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, with traders rotating and restocking, and tire factories making necessary restocks. The futures market maintained a weak and volatile pattern, and the spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber followed the downward trend. The enthusiasm of inventory holders to offer prices was average, and downstream restocking was coming to an end, with low inquiry enthusiasm and only moderate restocking at low prices, resulting in a dull trading atmosphere [6]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the weather has improved, and the increasing output in the producing areas, combined with the decline in futures and spot prices, has led to a slight weakening of raw material prices. In Hainan, rainy weather has affected tapping operations, with fresh latex output hindered. Due to poor orders and profit margins, local processing factories have limited enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, but the decline rate has narrowed. The bonded warehouse has continued to reduce inventory, while the general trade warehouse has continued to accumulate a small amount of inventory. Overseas shipments have arrived at the port and been concentrated in storage, with the inbound volume at Qingdao warehouses increasing significantly and exceeding expectations. Previously, the orders of downstream tire factories were gradually shipped out, but the quantity was limited. The outbound volume of the bonded warehouse was better than that of the general trade warehouse, and the general trade warehouse continued to show a slight inventory accumulation state [6]. - In terms of demand, tire enterprises mostly maintained their previous operating levels this week to appropriately stock up for post - holiday inventory, with overall operating rates making small adjustments. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday maintenance period in advance due to insufficient orders. It is reported that some enterprises plan to start a 5 - 8 - day holiday on September 30 or October 1, which will significantly drag down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises next week [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15150 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12150 - 12500 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market's previous positive factors were exhausted, with rubber prices falling. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, and the futures market was weakly volatile. The spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber followed the decline. Downstream restocking was ending, and trading was dull [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's raw material prices weakened slightly, while Hainan's fresh latex output was affected by weather. Qingdao Port's inventory continued to decline with a narrowing decline rate. Tire enterprises' operating rates were slightly adjusted, and some small - scale enterprises entered holiday maintenance in advance [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15150 - 15700, and the nr2511 contract between 12150 - 12500 in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.42%, while the main contract price of 20 - rubber oscillated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 1.1% [9]. - **Position Analysis**: No detailed analysis content provided. - **Inter - period Spreads**: As of September 26, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 35, and the spread between 20 - rubber 11 - 12 was - 15 [19]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 24, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 155,830 tons, an increase of 920 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 44,856 tons, an increase of 303 tons from last week [25]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices**: As of September 24, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of September 24, the 20 - rubber basis was 847 yuan/ton, an increase of 147 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 740 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of September 24, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 55.3 (- 1) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 50.8 (- 0.82) Thai baht/kg. As of September 19, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - **Domestic Producing Areas' Raw Material Prices**: As of September 24, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [42]. - **Imports**: According to customs data, in August 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 520,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.1214 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.47% [45]. - **Qingdao Inventory**: As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 461,200 tons (the adjusted previous total inventory was 464,700 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 tons, a decline of 0.76%. The bonded area inventory was 69,400 tons (the adjusted previous bonded inventory was 73,100 tons), a decline of 5.07%; the general trade inventory was 391,800 tons (the adjusted previous general trade inventory was 391,600 tons), an increase of 0.04%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points [49]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Operating Rates**: As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points. Currently, tire enterprises mostly maintain their previous operating levels [51]. - **Tire Exports**: In August 2025, China's tire exports were 769,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. From January to August, China's cumulative tire exports were 5.703 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98% [54]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In August 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 1% compared with July and a year - on - year increase of about 35% compared with 62,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market were close to 710,000 vehicles [57]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market saw a decline in prices due to weakened raw material and macro - driving forces. Imported rubber prices dropped, and the spot market for domestic natural rubber also adjusted downward with cautious trading [9]. - Global natural rubber production areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's production is gradually normalizing, while Hainan's production has recovered despite potential typhoon impacts. Qingdao port inventories continue to decline, with the bonded warehouse decline exceeding expectations and a slight increase in general trade inventory. Demand from downstream tire enterprises shows mixed performance, with semi - steel tire production having some support and full - steel tire demand lacking improvement [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15300 - 15750, and the nr2511 contract between 12150 - 12600 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Raw material and macro - driving forces weakened, causing rubber prices to fall. Imported rubber prices dropped, and the domestic spot market adjusted downward with limited real - order follow - up [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Production areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's production is normalizing, and Hainan's production has recovered. Qingdao port inventories are declining, with the bonded warehouse decline exceeding expectations. Downstream tire enterprises' capacity utilization may slightly decrease [9]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15300 - 15750, and the nr2511 contract between 12150 - 12600 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: The main contract of Shanghai rubber futures fell 1.8% week - on - week, and the 20 - rubber main contract fell 2.03% week - on - week [14]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in summary, only mentioned the top 20 position changes of Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber [15][17]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of September 19, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 5, and the spread between 20 - rubber 10 - 11 was 0 [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 19, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 154,920 tons, an increase of 1,980 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 44,553 tons, a decrease of 2,023 tons from last week [28]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Price**: As of September 18, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 14,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of September 18, the 20 - rubber basis was 706 yuan/ton, an increase of 82 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 820 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Thailand Raw Material Price**: As of September 18, the field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 56.3 (+0.1) Thai baht/kg, and cup lump was 51.05 (-0.5) Thai baht/kg. As of September 19, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12 US dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic Production Area Raw Material Price**: As of September 18, the Yunnan latex price was 14,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the Hainan fresh latex price was 14,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week [43]. - **Import Quantity**: In July 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [46]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of September 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 586,600 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.95%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 8.32% to 66,200 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.07% to 520,400 tons [50]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No content related to option market analysis was provided in the report. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization**: As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [53]. - **Tire Export**: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [57]. - **Domestic Demand**: In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales volume was close to 710,000 vehicles [60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - This week, the bullish sentiment in the natural rubber market gradually weakened, and rubber prices corrected from high levels. The offer price of imported rubber rose and then fell, with the overall price center shifting down compared to the previous week. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for domestic natural rubber significantly increased, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market warmed up [9]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the supply is gradually increasing, and the raw material purchase price remains firm. In Hainan, local rainfall has affected tapping operations, slowing the seasonal increase in new rubber supply [9]. - Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, and the decline rate has widened compared to the previous period. However, as tire manufacturers' risk - aversion sentiment towards high prices rises, the decline rate of general trade inventory may narrow [9]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has significantly increased. Most enterprises are expected to maintain the current production schedule next week to stock up inventory around the "National Day" and make up for previous order gaps [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,700 - 16,300 in the short - term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 13,000 [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: The bullish sentiment in the natural rubber market weakened, and rubber prices corrected from high levels. Imported rubber prices rose and then fell, while domestic rubber trading warmed up [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply in Yunnan is increasing, and in Hainan, rainfall affects tapping. Qingdao Port inventory is decreasing, but the decline in general trade inventory may narrow. Tire enterprise capacity utilization has increased and is expected to fluctuate slightly [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,700 - 16,300, and the nr2511 contract between 12,350 - 13,000 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Trend**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 3.09% this week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price fell by 4.42% [14]. - **Spread**: As of September 11, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 40, and the spread between 20 - rubber 10 - 11 was - 55 [24]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 11, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 152,940 tons, a decrease of 9,290 tons from the previous week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 46,771 tons, an increase of 202 tons from the previous week [29]. - **Spot Market** - **Price**: As of September 11, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 15,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [33]. - **Basis**: As of September 11, the 20 - rubber basis was 629 yuan/ton, an increase of 238 yuan/ton from the previous week; the non - standard basis was - 905 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous week [41]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Thailand**: As of September 11, the field glue price in Thailand was 56.2 (+0.4) Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 52.2 (+0.15) Thai baht/kg. As of September 12, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 17 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 31.4 US dollars/ton from the previous week [44]. - **Domestic**: As of September 11, the glue price in Yunnan was 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [47]. - **Import**: In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [50]. - **Inventory**: As of September 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 592,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.66% [54]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a month - on - month increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points [58]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [61]. - **Domestic Demand**: In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was close to 710,000 vehicles [64]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis No information about the options market analysis is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market had strong support at the raw material end, and rubber prices continued to rise. However, the trading sentiment in the market was cautious, and downstream enterprises maintained a rigid demand for replenishment. In the short term, the inventory at Qingdao Port is expected to continue to decline slightly, and the overall capacity utilization rate of downstream tire enterprises will increase, but the increase may be limited [7]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,550 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,850 - 13,400 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The raw material end of the natural rubber market had strong support, and rubber prices continued to rise. The import rubber market offers increased, but factory purchases were limited. The futures market was volatile, and the spot prices of domestic natural rubber adjusted with the market. The trading sentiment was cautious, and downstream enterprises maintained rigid demand for replenishment [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the weather has improved, and the raw material supply pressure remains high. In Hainan, the weather is good, and tapping operations are underway, but local processing plants have low enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials due to limited profit margins. The inventory at Qingdao Port continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed down. The demand from downstream tire enterprises is relatively moderate. Some enterprises in Dongying had a 3 - 4 - day maintenance plan this week, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. Next week, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase, but some enterprises still have production control plans this month [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,550 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,850 - 13,400 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 2.93% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber rose by 3.22% week - on - week [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of September 5, the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 40, and the spread between the 10 - 11 contracts of 20 - rubber was - 45 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 4, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 165,730 tons, a decrease of 12,910 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 46,368 tons, an increase of 706 tons from last week [24]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices**: As of September 4, the price of state - owned full - latex was 15,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of September 4, the basis of 20 - rubber was 454 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 980 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of September 4, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 55.8 (+0.25) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 52.05 (+1.5) Thai baht/kg. As of September 5, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 14.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 21.4 US dollars/ton from last week [41]. - **Domestic Producing Areas' Raw Material Prices**: As of September 4, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week [44]. 3.3.2 Import and Inventory - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [47]. - **Qingdao Inventory**: As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 602,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.6%. The bonded area inventory was 73,200 tons, a decrease of 0.14%; the general trade inventory was 529,000 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [51]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Tire Production**: As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.05 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.12 percentage points. During the period, some enterprises in Dongying had a 3 - 4 - day maintenance plan, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate [54]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, China's cumulative tire exports were 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [57]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - duty Truck Sales)**: In August 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 1% from July and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market were close to 710,000 vehicles [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - No relevant content provided

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market had strong positive drivers, and the center of rubber prices rose again. In the import rubber market, the quoted prices moved up, with high buying and replenishment sentiment among traders and strong actual order transactions. In the futures market, prices were strongly volatile. The spot quotes of domestic natural rubber followed the upward adjustment of the futures market, but the downstream inquiry atmosphere was not high, and market transactions were cautious with light actual order transactions [7]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, raw material supply remains tight due to weather interference, and purchase prices are firm. In Hainan, local precipitation has slowed down the recovery of raw material supply, and local processing plants are still competing to purchase raw materials at higher prices. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has decreased at a larger month - on - month rate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. The arrival and storage of overseas goods have decreased month - on - month, while the procurement sentiment of downstream tire enterprises is positive, and warehouse shipments are better than expected. In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' equipment operation was stable this week, but some enterprises had maintenance due to high shipment pressure, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. The equipment operation of full - steel tire sample enterprises was stable, mostly continuing the previous production control state. Some enterprises reduced production at the end of this week due to end - of - month maintenance, which also affected the overall capacity utilization rate. Some enterprises have 3 - 6 days of maintenance plans at the end of the month and early next month, which may still drag down short - term capacity utilization [7]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15650 - 16200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12500 - 13000 in the short term [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the natural rubber market had positive drivers, and the center of rubber prices rose again. Import rubber market quotes moved up, with strong actual order transactions. The futures market was strongly volatile, and domestic natural rubber spot quotes followed the upward adjustment, but downstream transactions were cautious [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has tight raw material supply due to weather, and Hainan has slow supply recovery due to precipitation. Qingdao Port's inventory is decreasing, with reduced overseas arrivals and high downstream procurement. In the tire industry, semi - steel tire enterprises' capacity utilization is affected by maintenance, and full - steel tire enterprises also face some production reduction due to maintenance [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15650 - 16200, and the nr2510 contract between 12500 - 13000 in the short term [7] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 1.5% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - standard rubber rose by 1.48% week - on - week [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not summarized in the text. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of August 29, the spread between Shanghai rubber contracts 1 - 5 was - 80, and the spread between 20 - standard rubber contracts 10 - 11 was - 30 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 29, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 178,640 tons, an increase of 170 tons from last week; 20 - standard rubber warehouse receipts were 45,662 tons, an increase of 828 tons from last week [26]. Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis**: As of August 28, the price of state - owned whole latex was 15,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **20 - Standard Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of August 28, the 20 - standard rubber basis was 354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1095 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Thai Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of August 28, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 55.45 (+0.75) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 50.7 (+1.5) Thai baht/kg. As of August 29, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 35.8 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week [38]. - **Domestic Producing Area Raw Material Prices**: As of August 28, the latex price in Yunnan was 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from last week [41]. Import and Inventory - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [45]. - **Qingdao Inventory**: As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,500 tons, a decrease of 1.71%. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%; the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [49]. Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points [52]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 325,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.78% and a year - on - year increase of 7.20%; from January to July, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 1.9403 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.51%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 454,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99%; from January to July, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 2.7891 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.52% [56]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In July 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 15% from June and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to July this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - duty truck market was about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [59]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Not provided

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port continued to decline, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. Overseas goods arriving at the port for warehousing decreased, while downstream tire companies had a positive purchasing sentiment, and warehouse shipments were better than expected. - Last week, the domestic tire production capacity utilization rate increased, but this week, it may decline slightly due to factors such as high - temperature weather and limited overall orders. Some enterprises may adjust production schedules or conduct maintenance at the end of the month, dragging down the overall production capacity utilization rate. - The RU2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,650 - 16,200 in the short - term, and the NR2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,650 - 13,000 in the short - term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15,905 yuan/ton, up 265 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12,785 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan. - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 105 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,115 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 132,930 lots, up 1,723 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 57,206 lots, up 2,876 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 32,531 lots, up 3,267 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 7,221 lots, up 1,111 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 178,470 tons, down 40 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 44,655 tons. [2] 现货市场 - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 202 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 975 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 1,025 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,873 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 357 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 61.55 Thai baht/kg, up 1.55 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 57.6 Thai baht/kg, up 0.37 Thai baht. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 55 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 49.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 235 US dollars/ton, up 19.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 37.8 US dollars/ton, up 4.6 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 12.19 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 25.95 million tons, down 2.13 million tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.76%, up 1.67 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.13%, up 1.06 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 39.76 days, up 0.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 47.05 days, up 0.32 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.62%, down 0.91 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.34%, up 0.21 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.71%, up 0.22 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.7%, up 0.21 percentage points. [2] Industry News - In the first week of August 24 - 30, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall in some areas increased the impact on tapping; in the southern hemisphere, rainfall in most areas was low, slightly reducing the impact on tapping. - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.71%. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decline of 4.70%; the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decline of 1.28%. - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. [2]