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没有轴心的世界(1)保卫美元是危险的
日经中文网· 2025-05-28 02:56
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks and implications of the U.S. dollar losing its status as the world's reserve currency, particularly in the context of the proposed "Plaza Accord 2.0" aimed at curbing the dollar's excessive appreciation and its impact on U.S. trade deficits [1][2][3]. Group 1: Dollar's Status and Economic Implications - The U.S. dollar is widely used internationally, leading to increased demand and a higher exchange rate, which in turn reduces export competitiveness and often results in trade deficits [1][2]. - The concept of "Triffin's Dilemma" is highlighted, indicating that the U.S. must supply dollars abroad to maintain its reserve currency status, which creates a paradox of needing to run trade deficits while also facing pressure from a strong dollar [2][3]. - The scale of the U.S. trade deficit has significantly increased, from $120 billion in 1985 to an estimated $1.2 trillion in 2024, while the fiscal deficit has grown from $210 billion to $1.8 trillion, indicating a worsening of the dual deficit situation [3]. Group 2: Proposed Solutions and Market Reactions - The "Plaza Accord 2.0" is proposed as a collaborative effort among multiple countries to manage currency values and prevent the dollar from over-appreciating, reflecting a shift from free trade to protectionism under the current U.S. administration [2][3]. - A secret meeting involving major financial institutions and the White House's economic advisor Stephen Miran suggests a growing concern over the volatility of the U.S. financial markets and the potential for significant economic instability [2][3]. - The article notes that the U.S. is increasingly relying on tariffs and protectionist measures, which may ultimately undermine the dollar's value and the U.S.'s credibility as a stable economic leader [4][5]. Group 3: National Security and Economic Stability - The article emphasizes the inseparable link between the dollar's status as a reserve currency and U.S. national security, suggesting that a strong dollar can weaken U.S. manufacturing and export competitiveness, thereby posing risks to national defense [4]. - The notion that the U.S. may no longer have the capacity to protect its allies and maintain the dollar's value is raised, indicating a shift in global economic dynamics and potential challenges to U.S. hegemony [4][5]. - The recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's reflects growing concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies and the potential for a loss of confidence in the dollar [4].