国银河证券|CGS 延长关税豁免期后, 东盟将会如何应对? 首席经济学家：章俊 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 延长关税豁免期后,东盟将会如何应对? 核心观点 尽管短期内市场反应较为温和,但长期来看,我们认为美国持续加征关税的立 场强硬,区域关税的整体上浮会压缩出口及转口贸易的利润空间,豁免期结束 后,东南亚"关税洼地"的优势地位或面临较大挑战,对美出口及转口规模预 计均将有所下降。高度外向型的经济结构或将面临更为严峻的经济下行压力。 原 90 天暂缓期内发生了什么? 原定于 7 月 9 日结束的 90 天豁免期内, 东盟各 国为规避预期关税压力,对美出口呈现明显的"抢跑式出口"特征,电子器件 成为最活跃的产品类别。谈判方面,据美方信息,越南已完成对美关税协议, 但双方对协定税率或存在认知偏差,这一"乌龙"事件为东盟谈判前景增加了 不确定性。 美方阻止转口、消减逆差的谈判诉求会实现吗?我们认为以关税阻断中国转口路 径、修复美国贸易逆差、引导制造业回流缺乏现实基础与理论支撑。从全球贸 易格局来看,中国制造业已深度嵌入全球产业链体系, ...

Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds and Credit Risk - U.S. Treasury yields have been rising across all maturities this year, leading to increased government financing costs and heightened credit risk concerns in the market [1][12] - The steepening yield curve reflects a combination of factors including fiscal deficits and tariff policies that have contributed to a decline in U.S. government creditworthiness [1][11] - The U.S. government is facing mounting pressure from both internal and external factors, which are pushing Treasury credit towards a downward trajectory [1] Group 2: Global Dollarization and Its Impact - The dollar's role as a global public good is being challenged, with countries seeking to reduce reliance on the dollar due to its perceived misuse by the U.S. [2][5] - Emerging markets and developing countries are increasingly burdened by dollar-denominated debt, especially during crises, leading to rising default risks as U.S. monetary policy tightens [2][3] - Countries are actively pursuing "de-dollarization" strategies, including bilateral currency agreements and the establishment of alternative payment systems [3][4] Group 3: Japanese Government Bonds and Their Influence - Japan's government bond yields have surged, with the 10-year yield reaching a 16-year high, raising concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal position [6][7] - Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 260%, the highest among developed nations, and the recent contraction in GDP highlights the fragility of its economic recovery [7][8] - The Bank of Japan's tightening monetary policy may lead to increased financing costs, raising questions about the government's ability to service its debt [8][9] Group 4: U.S. Debt Dynamics and Market Sentiment - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.22 trillion, with projections indicating a significant increase in the debt ceiling, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [11][12] - The projected federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is expected to reach $2.2 trillion, exacerbating doubts about the U.S. government's creditworthiness [11][12] - Investor confidence in U.S. Treasuries is waning, as evidenced by declining bid-to-cover ratios in recent bond auctions, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [12][13] Group 5: Changes in Investor Composition - There has been a notable decline in the share of traditional long-term holders of U.S. Treasuries, such as sovereign funds and pension funds, while short-term trading capital is on the rise [13][14] - The shift towards a trading-oriented investor base may increase volatility in the Treasury market, undermining its status as a safe-haven asset [14] - The growing influence of high-frequency trading could amplify price sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators and monetary policy signals, further destabilizing the market [14]

Group 1 - The core idea of the articles revolves around the potential challenges the US faces in maintaining the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, particularly in light of rising trade deficits and the proposed "Plaza Accord 2.0" to counteract dollar appreciation [1][2][3] - The "Plaza Accord 2.0" is a concept proposed by Stephen Miran, aiming for coordinated intervention among multiple countries to manage currency exchange rates and curb excessive dollar appreciation [2][3] - The US is experiencing a significant increase in its trade deficit, projected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2024, compared to $120 billion in 1985, indicating a worsening economic situation [3] Group 2 - The relationship between the dollar's status as a reserve currency and national security is emphasized, suggesting that the US's economic stability is intertwined with its defense capabilities [4][5] - The US's reliance on the dollar as a global currency has led to a situation where its economic policies, such as tariffs, may inadvertently undermine the dollar's value and the country's credibility [5][6] - Recent discussions among financial institutions indicate a growing concern over the risks associated with dollar depreciation, with some investors seeking to adjust their asset holdings in response [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks and implications of the U.S. dollar losing its status as the world's reserve currency, particularly in the context of the proposed "Plaza Accord 2.0" aimed at curbing the dollar's excessive appreciation and its impact on U.S. trade deficits [1][2][3]. Group 1: Dollar's Status and Economic Implications - The U.S. dollar is widely used internationally, leading to increased demand and a higher exchange rate, which in turn reduces export competitiveness and often results in trade deficits [1][2]. - The concept of "Triffin's Dilemma" is highlighted, indicating that the U.S. must supply dollars abroad to maintain its reserve currency status, which creates a paradox of needing to run trade deficits while also facing pressure from a strong dollar [2][3]. - The scale of the U.S. trade deficit has significantly increased, from $120 billion in 1985 to an estimated $1.2 trillion in 2024, while the fiscal deficit has grown from $210 billion to $1.8 trillion, indicating a worsening of the dual deficit situation [3]. Group 2: Proposed Solutions and Market Reactions - The "Plaza Accord 2.0" is proposed as a collaborative effort among multiple countries to manage currency values and prevent the dollar from over-appreciating, reflecting a shift from free trade to protectionism under the current U.S. administration [2][3]. - A secret meeting involving major financial institutions and the White House's economic advisor Stephen Miran suggests a growing concern over the volatility of the U.S. financial markets and the potential for significant economic instability [2][3]. - The article notes that the U.S. is increasingly relying on tariffs and protectionist measures, which may ultimately undermine the dollar's value and the U.S.'s credibility as a stable economic leader [4][5]. Group 3: National Security and Economic Stability - The article emphasizes the inseparable link between the dollar's status as a reserve currency and U.S. national security, suggesting that a strong dollar can weaken U.S. manufacturing and export competitiveness, thereby posing risks to national defense [4]. - The notion that the U.S. may no longer have the capacity to protect its allies and maintain the dollar's value is raised, indicating a shift in global economic dynamics and potential challenges to U.S. hegemony [4][5]. - The recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's reflects growing concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies and the potential for a loss of confidence in the dollar [4].

文/曹萌 3月6日，美元指数逼近104关口，点位创2024年11月以来新低，而自本周起， 美元指数已连续三 日大幅下跌，跌幅超过3%。反观离岸人民币（USD/CNH），升值不足1%。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，当前汇市存在人民币汇率波动幅度显著低于美元波动幅度的一般 模式，无论是在升值还是在贬值过程中。这会带动CFETS等三大一篮子人民币汇率指数保持在稳中 偏强状态，进而体现监管层"保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定"的控制目标。 01 下跌的不止美元 近日，中美资本市场发生了乾坤大挪移，曾在中国资本市场上演的股债汇三杀戏码，如今来到了具有 200多年历史的美国资本市场。 具体来看，美元指数自3月3日起，已连续三日大幅下行，点位从107上方逼近104，跌幅超过3%。 而汇率走势与宏观经济情况息息相关，数据显示，近期美国制造业活动陷入停滞，通胀压力持续升 温，1月消费者支出环比下降0.2%，贸易赤字扩大至982亿美元，初请失业金人数突破23万大关。 而亚特兰大联储模型显示，美国一季度GDP或萎缩2.825%，创2019年以来最差表现。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪表示，近期美元指数大幅下跌与多项 ...

一场国际金融秩序重构的线索，正悄然体现在最近日元的迅猛升值中。 本周，日元兑美元一度升至148.5左右，创下去年10月以来最强水平。自年初以来，美元/日元累计下跌4.88%。 这背后自然有日本央行加息预期的推动，而花旗认为， 日元走势之下还隐含了市场对特朗普政府可能发起的"海湖庄园协议"（Mar-a-Lago Accord）的定 价。 花旗Osamu Takashima等分析师表示， 虽然无法确认是否真的存在"海湖庄园协议" ，但对于日元来说，特朗普目前比日本央行行长植田和男更具影响力，在 美国财政部长贝森特对日元疲软以及日本央行缓慢的货币政策正常化进程感到不满的情况下，不排除美国会通过政治压力来推动汇率调整。 华尔街热议"海湖庄园协议" "海湖庄园协议"的概念可追溯现任白宫经济顾问委员会主席Stephen Miran去年11月发布的报告《重组全球贸易体系的用户指南》。 当时Miran作为对冲基金Hudson Bay Capital Management LP的高级策略师， 在这份报告里详细阐述了特朗普政府可能采取的重组全球贸易体系的方案，包 括关税战略、货币政策及其对金融市场的潜在影响。 Miran曾在特朗 ...