相关机构表示，当前政策定调积极也有望提振建材板块。过去几年建材跟随地产持续下行，从当前 高频数据来看，建材各子行业已经先后见到盈利底部（如水泥和玻纤于2024年一季度见底、浮法玻璃 2024年9月见底、消费建材部分品类价格战见底）。 注：数据来源wind、截至2025.7.21，建材ETF规模为11.11亿，在同类3只产品中排名第一，时间区 间2016/02/01-2017/12/31，采用申万一级行业指数，指数历史走势仅供参考，不代表投资建议，不预示 未来。如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预 示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考， 不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级 相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_c ...

来源：环球时报 短短10年时间，长春光机所的科学家和无数科研人员发扬自力更生、艰苦奋斗的拼搏精神，彻底改变了 我国光学仪器制造领域一穷二白的面貌，在震惊世界光学界的同时，把西方国家原本高价垄断的光学仪 器价格大幅拉低。在长春光机所工作近60年、如今已经85岁高龄的王家骐院士的介绍最让人泪目。他曾 主持研制海上型号的潜地弹道导弹光电瞄准仪，作为中国科学院的唯一代表上潜艇参加海上试验那一 天，王家骐院士特意穿上了一套最好的毛料中山装。别人问他，为什么要穿得这么正式？王院士回答 说："一旦出了事，要是被外国人打捞起来，从服装就能看出是中国人。让他们看看中国科研人员为科 学献身的样子，看到中国科技自强的志气！" 中国的科学家们正是这样以行动诠释着勇于创新、坚持创新的信念，用不懈努力探寻科技发展的前沿。 一个令人振奋的消息是，直径两米的巡天空间望远镜预计明后年将发射升空，在同等深度和精度的基础 上，它的广度是哈勃望远镜的300倍以上。届时，中国在天文物理方面也会拥有自己尖端的"家把什"。 光学仪器制造领域的发展历程可以印证芯片领域的态势变化，有专家称此为"边际管制效应"。也就是 说，一旦中国有了性能接近的产品和技术，良 ...

2023年三季度，在中芯国际未被市场普遍关注时，基金定期报告显示陈飞管理的朱雀企业优胜逐渐布局 中芯国际，并持有该股约七个季度；当科技"大厂"于2024年下半年加大AI布局、资本开支上升后，基金 定期报告显示腾讯控股又在四季度成为陈飞重点布局的标的之一。对产业趋势的前瞻把握以及对资产的 精准定价，是陈飞在纷繁变化的市场中获取超额收益的关键原因。 2020年，陈飞加入朱雀时主要关注TMT行业，2023年8月开始管理产品后，逐渐从TMT研究拓展到全市 场选股。一方面，陈飞背后的研究团队，分别专注于新能源设施、科技与资源、医药消费等多个领域， 且研究员在各自专业领域深耕，可通过协同机制实现整体战力的最大化，为投资组合贡献多元收益。另 一方面，陈飞认为，投研的方法论可以复制。他始终关注两点，即顺应产业逻辑及重视个股的安全边 际。 基于产业生命周期，积极布局处于行业成长期和格局优化期阶段的优秀企业，是陈飞的投资重点。在他 看来，完整的产业发展一般会经历三个阶段：第一阶段是行业成长期，创新驱动带来需求渗透率快速提 升，产业性机会显著；第二阶段是竞争加剧期，行业格局开始恶化，这时投资须慎重或规避；第三阶段 是格局优化期，经 ...

咱们分三段来说，就像剥洋葱，一层层往里看。 说白了，经济学首先是门"选择学"。它研究的就是，你、我，每天是怎么在各种诱惑和限制里，做出那 个"最终决定"的。 原理一：没有白来的午餐，凡事都有个"取舍"。 很多时候，一提到"经济学"，大家脑子里就蹦出各种曲线图、公式，觉得那是专家教授的事，离我们特 远，听着也头疼。好像只有西装革履，坐在高大上的会议室里，才能谈论这些。 我得说，这种想法本身，就有点"经济学盲"。 在我看来，这门学问，骨子里都是大实话。它讲的，是你我、是公司、是国家，每天每时每刻都在做的 事，都在遵循的一些"看不见的规矩"。这些规矩，不写在明面上，却实实在在影响着每一个选择，决定 着每一次得失。 今天，咱们就聊聊曼昆的"经济学十大原理"，在我的知识面中，曼昆的这个原理是最接地气的，最值得 跟大家一聊的，具体可以自己搜索，去买书看（我不卖书不卖课，我真就只是个商业咨询顾问，单纯介 绍啊）。别看它经济学原理的名字唬人，其实掰开了揉碎了，就是十条朴素得不能再朴素的道理。搞懂 了，你再看自己做决策，再看公司怎么运行，甚至再看整个社会，都会清醒很多。 文 | 沈素明 原理二：一个东西的真实成本，是你为了得到 ...

多晶硅盘中巨震振幅高达6.67%，最高触及4.6万关口，此后高位回落再次企稳4.3万之上。 多晶硅期价冲高回落 机构：短期或延续偏强整理 17日，广州期货交易所(下称"广期所")发布《关于对多晶硅期货实施交易限额及调整工业硅期货SI2509合约交易限额的通知》。 截至7月18日，本周多晶硅(N型致密料)市场均价46.2元/千克，即期制造成本约40.08元/千克，即期单公斤净利约为6.1元/千克。价格方 面，本周多晶硅N型致密料均价环比上涨5.7元/千克。成本方面，硅粉价格上涨，成本环比上涨0.53元/千克，本周多晶硅环节净利润环比 上涨5.17元/千克。(Mysteel) 银河期货表示，近期多晶硅市场传言较多，且主要交易"反内卷"、不低于成本销售。本周多晶硅、硅片、电池、组件均召开相关会议， 确定标杆成本及价格，多晶硅价格上涨已顺利向下传导，需进一步关注电站环节动向。当前主力合约涨超45000元/吨，理论上厂家卖交 割已不再低于完全成本。价格已至高位，前期多单可止盈离场，新进多单可日内操作。工业硅方面，银河期货分析称，近两周期货价格 走强，西北硅厂向贸易商大量出货，工业硅库存由工厂转移至贸易商，部分显性库存隐 ...

身边的人 股民a，老王，今年赚30万，穿破洞汗衫，不舍得买新衣，一门心思研究股票！ 股民b，冯女士，今年盈利颇丰（不详），估计赚50万，没车，也不给老公买车！ 股民c，李哥，今年赚8万左右，电脑是2016年买的，开机要5分钟，骑电瓶车，不打算买车！ 菠萝它爸 观点跟您相反，虽然以前是那种一毛不拔的人，但是也没攒下什么财富，现在是能力范围内，买 商品和服务，都买贵的，因为贵不一定好，但是便宜大概率没好货，而我们投资者的时间宝贵， 花时间去便宜里面选好货，完全没必要。 我90年的，上半年赚点钱了，正好媳妇车追尾了别人的，不严重，但是既然赚钱了那索性给她换 了一辆新车。 股民d，新股民小王，大学生刚毕业，本金不超过5万，今年盈利2万，生活简朴，理发不超过10 元。 股民e,本人，今年盈利10%，不喝奶茶不吃零食，5年买一次衣服，3年买一次鞋，最爱某多多！ 真实！ luckzpz 光看今年？ 楼主也许不知道他们过去几年是怎么过来的。 SJ666888 我们家已经进化到剪头发都在家自己解决的地步了。 因为我的账户有好几个，高风险的就是期货账户里面钱多，每单盈利，都会拿出10%给媳妇存下 来，她会定投黄金或者美股或者高息 ...

中国消费增长的潜在方向不仅来自边际消费倾向的提升空间，也来自服务消费扩容与下沉市场的结构性机遇。 在"以提振消费为重点全方位扩大内需"的框架下，消费已成为中国经济的主要驱动力。2024年，中国居民最终消费占GDP比重约40%，居民边际消费倾向约 为66%，显著低于主要发达经济体。因此，厘清中国消费规模增长的潜在路径，对当前宏观政策导向具有十分重要的现实意义。 根据理论数值估算，在当前居民边际消费倾向为66%的基础上，2025~2029年若边际消费倾向逐步提升至70%，则可新增7.1万亿元的消费规模。进一步从消 费结构出发，若服务消费占比提升至约53%，则5年内可较基准情景新增14.9万亿元的消费需求。若农村居民收入增速在历史平均水平基础上提高2个百分 点，则可新增3.5万亿元的消费需求。 理论估算显示，中国消费增长的潜在方向不仅来自边际消费倾向的提升空间，也来自服务消费扩容与下沉市场的结构性机遇。若能通过"提高消费倾向、重 构消费结构、激活消费群体"三方面协同推进，未来5年理论上可新增约25.5万亿元的消费规模。考虑不同因素之间的潜在替代效应，这一估算仍属理论上 限，实际空间可能需动态修正。 边际空间：边际消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of marginal propensity to consume (MPC) and its implications for investment analysis, emphasizing the importance of understanding different consumer behaviors and their impact on consumption patterns and investment opportunities [2][3][26]. Group 1: Marginal Propensity to Consume - Marginal propensity to consume is a key concept in Keynesian economics, indicating the proportion of additional income that is spent on consumption [2]. - A higher MPC leads to greater returns on government investment, but the pandemic has caused a decline in MPC, resulting in lower economic multipliers [3][4]. - The stability of MPC is influenced by consumer psychology, lifestyle habits, and social culture, which can vary significantly among different demographic groups [20][21][22]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Analysis - The article identifies two distinct consumer groups with different MPCs, which affects their spending behavior and investment implications [9][12]. - For example, two families with the same income can exhibit vastly different consumption patterns based on their spending habits, with one family being more conservative and the other more liberal in their spending [10][11][13]. - The differences in MPC among these groups highlight that consumption growth is not solely driven by income increases but rather by the spending behavior of those most willing to spend [13][15]. Group 3: Consumption Trends and Recovery - The article outlines the sequence of consumption decline and recovery, noting that high MPC groups tend to recover faster than low MPC groups during economic upturns [34][35]. - During the consumption downturn from 2020 to 2021, traditional discretionary goods were the first to be affected, while new consumption categories remained resilient until later in the downturn [31][32]. - The recovery process is characterized by a reversal of the decline sequence, with new consumption categories leading the recovery, particularly those associated with high MPC consumers [35][37].

Core Viewpoint - Valuation modeling is an essential skill in the financial industry, applicable across various fields such as primary equity, private placements, and secondary markets like IPOs and mergers and acquisitions [1] Group 1: Issues in Current Valuation Modeling - The existing valuation modeling systems in the market face several practical issues, including: - Logical issues where data presentation is overly complex, making it difficult for company leaders to understand [2] - Problems with the selection and combination of valuation methods, leading to significantly different results from methods like DCF, PE, PB, EV/EBITDA, and others [2] - Deficiencies in assumptions used in DCF calculations, often based on arbitrary reasoning rather than solid evidence [2] Group 2: Training Program Details - A training program titled "DCF Cash Flow Discounting - Rapid Skill Building Guide" will be held on July 19-20, 2025, in Shanghai, organized by Wutong Classroom in collaboration with M&A Academy [2] - The program aims to address the key challenges affecting valuation judgment and decision-making communication [2] Group 3: Instructors' Background - The instructors have extensive experience in industry research and investment, covering various sectors: - Instructor Liu has 10 years of industry research and investment experience, specializing in cash flow discount valuation modeling [7] - Instructor Yu is familiar with valuation methods for innovative drugs and vaccines, having provided training for multiple institutions [7] - Instructor Xue has experience in cyclical and consumer industries, focusing on profit estimation and price-volume decomposition [8] Group 4: Course Structure and Content - The course will cover several modules, including: - Valuation issues and frameworks, including valuation laws and profit forecasting [13][14] - Practical exercises in DCF valuation modeling, including the underlying principles and preparation for modeling [15][18] - Building revenue forecasting tables and case studies using various methods such as market share and comprehensive methods [21][22] - Special valuation methods like EV/EBITDA and NAV, along with practical issues in valuation [24][22] Group 5: Course Outcomes - Participants will gain skills in tracking economic conditions, understanding capital market information pricing mechanisms, and applying safety margin thinking in valuation [28]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of Benjamin Graham's book "Security Analysis" as a foundational text for understanding investment philosophy and methodology [1][10][12] - It highlights three main investment principles from Graham: margin of safety, Mr. Market, and investing with a business perspective [5][10] - The text discusses the significance of financial statements in assessing a company's intrinsic value and the need for deeper analysis beyond surface-level profit growth [2][3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Philosophy - Graham's investment philosophy is rooted in the concepts of margin of safety, which arises from both undervaluation and solid fundamentals, and Mr. Market, who can exhibit extreme optimism or pessimism [5][6] - The article suggests that understanding these principles is crucial for value investing, especially in volatile markets like A-shares [5][6] Financial Analysis - The book "Security Analysis" provides a framework for fundamental analysis through financial statements, allowing investors to evaluate a company's intrinsic capabilities and value over time [2][3] - It stresses the importance of recognizing that financial data reflects underlying business realities, which may not always align with short-term market perceptions [3][4] Market Dynamics - The article notes that market conditions, particularly in China, have evolved rapidly, presenting both challenges and opportunities for investors [2][3] - It points out that while industries may show impressive growth in financial reports, the underlying business models and competitive advantages must be critically assessed to avoid pitfalls [4][5] Value Investing in China - The text asserts that value investing principles are applicable in the Chinese market, with historical evidence of successful long-term returns for value investors [6][11] - It highlights the need for investors to develop independent judgment and discipline in their investment approach, particularly in a rapidly changing economic landscape [6][11]