迂回出口战略

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"中国+1"战略失算,制造业还得回头?
日经中文网· 2025-04-05 07:02
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of increased tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam and Thailand, which is causing companies to reconsider their production strategies and supply chain locations [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Production Strategies - The U.S. has imposed a 36% tariff on Thai products and a 34% tariff on Chinese products, disrupting the "China Plus One" strategy that aimed to diversify production bases in Southeast Asia [1]. - Companies like Casio are contemplating a complete reassessment of their production bases due to the high tariffs, which have exceeded 30%, undermining the feasibility of using these countries as processing trade bases [1]. - Japanese companies are increasingly investing in ASEAN countries, with direct investments rising by 75% from 2017 to 2024, while investments in China have decreased by 65% during the same period [2]. Group 2: Shifts in Trade Dynamics - Vietnam has significantly benefited from this shift, with trade surpluses with the U.S. expected to exceed $100 billion in 2024, more than three times the figure from 2017 [2]. - Companies are exploring contract modifications with U.S. clients due to the high tariffs, with some considering the possibility of contract termination if the tariffs remain unchanged [2]. - The impact of tariffs is widespread, affecting various industries, including apparel, where companies like Fast Retailing are facing challenges in changing suppliers due to high-quality requirements [3]. Group 3: Broader Economic Concerns - Concerns are growing about the potential for reduced U.S. consumer spending, which could further complicate the situation for companies exporting from Southeast Asia [4]. - The Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) anticipates that the tariffs will have a broader-than-expected impact on investments in Southeast Asia, particularly in the electronics sector [4].