1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the freight rate has likely been reached, as Maersk's freight rate for the first week of the second half of July remained unchanged, and MSC's freight rate for the second half of July also remained the same as the first half. It is necessary to monitor the freight rate follow - up of other shipping companies, especially the PA Alliance [4]. - During the off - season, the EC2510 contract can be sold on rallies for hedging when the freight rate is falling [5]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market Analysis - **European Routes**: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 29 is 1780/2980; HPL's quotes vary for different shipping periods. MSC + Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance also have their own price quotes [1]. - **US Routes**: Earlier, the supply and demand of the US routes both increased, and the supply recovered rapidly. The freight rates on the US East and West routes have fallen from their highs. The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June was 350,000 TEU, 243,400 TEU in May, 359,000 TEU in July, and 299,000 TEU in August. Maersk's Shanghai - Los Angeles price in week 29 is 1456/1820 (compared to 4296/5360 in the first half of June), and the Shanghai - New York price in week 28 is 3625 dollars/FEU (compared to 6410 dollars/FEU in the first half of June) [2]. II. Geopolitical Impact - Geopolitical events such as the Israeli air strikes in Gaza, the situation of the cease - fire agreement draft, and the US and Iran's statements may have an impact on the shipping market, but the specific impact is not elaborated in detail [2]. III. Shipping Capacity - **European Routes**: The monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - European base ports was 261,900 TEU in July and 269,900 TEU in August. There were 8 blank sailings in July (5 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 2 in August (both by the OA Alliance). The decrease in capacity in July was mainly due to the skipping of Shanghai ports by MSC's ALBATROS route from week 28 to week 31, with a reduction of about 15,000 TEU of allocated shipping capacity [3]. IV. Freight Rate Analysis - **European Routes**: The freight rate top has likely emerged. Historically, the Shanghai - European base port freight rate generally peaked around week 34. In 2024, it peaked in mid - July, and there is a strong game between the August contract expectations and reality. The delivery settlement price of the EC2508 contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on August 11th, 18th, and 25th [4]. V. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of July 3, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 83,654 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 63,574 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 at 1325.20, EC2604 at 1174.20, EC2506 at 1310.00, EC2508 at 1883.50, EC2510 at 1367.90, and EC2512 at 1528.00 [5][6]. - **Spot Prices**: On June 27th, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 2030 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2578 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 4717 dollars/FEU. On July 1st, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2123.24 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1619.19 points [6]. VI. Container Ship Delivery - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship delivery. As of June 28, 2025, 135 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. Among them, 41 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 615,000 TEU, and 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU [7]. VII. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The main contract fluctuates. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract [7].