Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - TACO expectations are rising, and most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3] - The economy still shows a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand", and the foundation for the recovery of real estate and consumption is not yet solid. The financial data is neutral to positive for the bond market, but inflation expectations may disrupt short - term sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 1.00% month - on - month increase and a 1.30% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a - 0.90% year - on - year decrease [9] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan (+0.51%); M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with no change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% (-0.61%) [10] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.21, with a day - on - day increase of 0.09 (+0.09%); the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.8928, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.002 (-0.02%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.42, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.35%); DR007 is 1.41, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-1.00%); R007 is 1.55, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.55%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.46, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.34%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.00 (-0.34%) [11] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report provides multiple charts including the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), and long - short position ratio (top 20) of Treasury bond futures main contracts [13][14][20] 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - The report presents charts on the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, Treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trend, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, inter - bank pledged repo transaction statistics, and local bond issuance [27][28][26] 4. Spread Overview - The report shows charts on the inter - period spread trend of Treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, such as (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [41][34][36] 5. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [43][44] 6. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [46][60] 7. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report offers charts on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [55][59] 8. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and two - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [63][68] Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: Repo rates are falling, and Treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4] - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The glass futures declined significantly last week. After the downstream restocking ended, production and sales gradually decreased, and the current situation suppressed prices. It is expected that the glass futures will fluctuate weakly, with a possibility of a small rebound. The report suggests selling out - of - the - money call options [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy: Sell Out - of - the - Money Call Options - **Main Logic**: The glass futures dropped last week. After downstream restocking ended, production and sales declined. The basis in the Shahe area narrowed positively, and the basis in Hubei Minghong changed from negative to positive. Spot prices were basically stable, reducing hedging opportunities. The 5 - 9 spread was - 127 yuan/ton, and there were still risks in long - short spreads. Supply decreased as the second line of Sichuan Wujun with a daily melting capacity of 900 tons was cold - repaired. Nationwide inventory continued to decline, but the decline weakened. Downstream processing plants had average new orders and mainly maintained a rigid - demand purchasing rhythm. The price of soda ash, a raw material, was weak, and the only factor disturbing the market was the increase in coal costs. Technically, the short - side force reached its peak, and there was a possibility of profit - taking [3]. - **Operation Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money call options [4] 02 Market Review: Futures Decline - **Spot Price**: As of March 20, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,090 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan) in Central China, and 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China. - **Futures Price**: Last Friday, the glass 05 contract closed at 1,054 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 81 yuan [11]. 03 Market Review: Basis Turns Positive - **Soda Ash - Glass Spread**: As of March 20, the soda ash futures price was 1,202 yuan, and the glass futures price was 1,054 yuan. The spread between them was 148 yuan/ton (+ 6 yuan). - **Basis**: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 05 contract was 6 yuan/ton (+ 61 yuan). - **Contract Spread**: Last Friday, the 05 - 09 spread was - 127 yuan/ton (- 14 yuan) [12][16]. 04 Profit: Gross Margin Declines - **Natural Gas Process**: The cost was 1,572 yuan/ton (- 2 yuan), and the gross margin was - 322 yuan/ton (+ 2 yuan). - **Coal - Gas Process**: The cost was 1,179 yuan/ton (+ 6 yuan), and the gross margin was - 109 yuan/ton (- 6 yuan). - **Petroleum Coke Process**: The cost was 1,098 yuan/ton (- 2 yuan), and the gross margin was - 8 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan). - **Fuel Prices**: On March 20, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 4.31 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US 3% sulfur shot coke was 175 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 609 yuan/ton [20]. 05 Supply: Decrease - The daily melting capacity of glass last Friday was 146,585 tons/day (- 1,200 tons). Currently, there are 207 production lines in operation. Multiple production lines have undergone cold - repair,复产, new ignition, and conversion [22][23]. 06 Inventory: Continued Inventory Reduction - As of March 20, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 7,443.6 ten - thousand weight boxes (- 141.3 ten - thousand weight boxes). Inventory in various regions also decreased, such as North China (- 72 ten - thousand weight boxes), Central China (- 12 ten - thousand weight boxes), etc. [25][28]. 07 Deep - Processing: Decrease in Order Days - **Production and Sales Rate**: On March 19, the comprehensive production and sales rate of float glass was 97% (- 23%). - **LOW - E Glass**: On March 20, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 43.8% (+ 2.2%). - **Order Available Days**: At the beginning of February, the order days of glass deep - processing were 6.35 days (- 2.95 days) [29]. 08 Demand: Decrease in Sales During the Spring Festival - **Automobile**: In February, China's automobile production was 1.672 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 778,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 431,000 vehicles. Sales were 1.805 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 541,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 324,000 vehicles. - **New - Energy Vehicles**: In February, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 464,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 44.9% [38]. 09 Demand: Real Estate Data Continues to Decline - **Real Estate**: From January to February, China's real estate completion area was 63.2042 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 28%; new construction area was 50.839 million m² (- 23%); construction area was 5.35372 billion m² (- 12%); and commercial housing sales area was 92.93 million m² (- 14%). - **Transaction Area**: From March 9 to March 15, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.7 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 45% and a year - on - year decrease of 8%. - **Development Investment**: In December, real estate development investment was 419.724 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37% [44]. 10 Soda Ash: Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,275 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1,225 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,375 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. - **Futures Price**: Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,202 yuan/ton (- 75 yuan). - **Basis**: Last Friday, the basis of the soda ash Central China 05 contract was 23 yuan/ton (+ 75 yuan) [45][48][49]. 11 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Improvement in Joint - Soda Profit - **Soda Ash Profit**: As of last Friday, the ammonia - soda process cost of soda ash enterprises was 1,294 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the gross margin was - 25 yuan/ton (+ 1 yuan); the joint - production process cost was 1,729 yuan/ton (+ 89 yuan), and the gross margin was 228 yuan/ton (+ 62 yuan). - **Other Prices**: Last Friday, the market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,653 yuan/ton (+ 317 yuan), and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride of Xuzhou Fengcheng was 500 yuan/ton (+ 100 yuan) [50][51][52]. 12 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Increase in Production - **Inventory**: As of March 20, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 185.38 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 7.79 tons). - **Soda Ash Production**: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 81.81 tons (a week - on - week increase of 0.89 tons), including 43.4 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 0.57 tons) and 38.41 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 0.32 tons). The loss was 12.88 tons (a week - on - week increase of 0.79 tons). - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: Last weekend, the number of soda ash warehouse receipts on the exchange was 0 (a week - on - week decrease of 2,263) [61][62]. 13 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Improvement in Apparent Demand - **Apparent Consumption**: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 46.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.13 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 43.46 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4 tons. - **Production and Sales Rate**: Last week, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 109.63%, a week - on - week increase of 7.71%. - **Glass Factory Inventory**: In February, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 19.55 days [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand but slow inventory reduction. The losses in the secondary lead sector leading to lower - than - expected resumption of production support the lead price. However, before the delivery of the SHFE lead 2603 contract next week, the inventory transfer and delivery by holders will bring pressure on the increase of visible inventory. The lead price is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, trading in the range of 16,600 - 17,150 yuan/ton. Enterprises with hedging needs can conduct corresponding buying or selling hedging operations based on this range [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 9, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$42.91/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to -35.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,575 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries changed by 25 yuan/ton to 9,950 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells remained unchanged at 10,275 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On March 9, 2026, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,780 yuan/ton and closed at 16,740 yuan/ton, a change of -35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 55,371 lots, a change of 16,108 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 55,892 lots, a change of -1,783 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 16,815 yuan/ton and a minimum of 16,655 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,710 yuan/ton and closed at 16,720 yuan/ton, a 0.21% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM 1 lead price in the Shanghai market was reported at 16,680 - 16,790 yuan/ton, with a discount of 100 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2604 contract. After the SHFE lead price hit a low and rebounded, holders quoted prices according to the market. As the delivery approached, the circulating supply in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions increased. The ex - factory supply of electrolytic lead refineries was mostly sold at a discount, and some holders had large differences in selling. The mainstream origin quotes were at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead. The circulating supply in the secondary lead market was limited, and refineries sold at a firm price. The secondary refined lead quotes were at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to a premium of 25 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price. At the same time, the quotes for imported crude lead increased, downstream enterprises were more wait - and - see, and the purchases were relatively scattered, with no obvious improvement in the spot market transactions [2] Inventory - On March 9, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 74,000 tons, a change of 6,500 tons from the same period last week. As of March 10, the LME lead inventory was 284,875 tons, a change of -1,025 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The lead price is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, trading in the range of 16,600 - 17,150 yuan/ton. Enterprises with hedging needs can conduct corresponding buying or selling hedging operations based on this range [4] Options - The option strategy is to sell wide straddles [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, in the medium - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. - For treasury bond futures, in the medium - long term, with the upward risk preference and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On February 2nd, the four major A - share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.48% to 4015.75 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.69% to 13824.35 points, the ChiNext Index fell 2.46% to 3264.11 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 3.88% to 1450.9 points. Market trading volume was 26,066 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,558 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, food and beverage (+1.11%) and banks (+0.17%) led the gains, while non - ferrous metals (-7.62%), steel (-5.93%), and basic chemicals (-5.69%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IM > IC. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 770, 54, and 4,647 respectively. Net capital inflows of institutions, main players, large investors, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were -384, -155, 222, and 318 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -81, +137, +204, and -260 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 103.63, 133.85, 28.58, and -1.06 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were -11.2%, -14.36%, -5.35%, and 0.31% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 35%, 9%, 22%, and 53% respectively [2]. - The table shows the performance of various stock index futures contracts, including price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield [6]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On February 2nd, treasury bond futures were basically flat. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0%, TF fell 0.02%, T fell 0.03%, and TL rose 0.18% [3]. - For the current active 2603 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year treasury bond futures was 250017.IB, with a yield change of +0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.036, and an IRR of 1.19%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year treasury bond futures was 2500801.IB, with a yield change of +0.75 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.003, and an IRR of 1.46%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year treasury bond futures was 250018.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.004, and an IRR of 1.52%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.163, and an IRR of 0.41% [3]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 750 billion yuan and withdrew 1,505 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan [3]. - The table shows the performance of various treasury bond futures contracts, including price, trading volume, open interest, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate [8]. (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the import and export sentiment exceeded expectations, while the sentiment of the real estate and social activities sectors was lower than in previous periods, and the sentiment of the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors was similar to previous periods [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The situation of the Indonesian nickel - related events is undetermined, with a game between hedging and speculative positions in the nickel market. The concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia have intensified, and the rising price of ferronickel supports the center of the stainless - steel market [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 145,380, down 2,630 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,645, down 80 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 718,003, down 34,837 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 555,399, up 67,119 compared to T - 1 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 150,800, up 6,000 compared to T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,050, up 8 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 14,550, up 100 compared to T - 1; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu was 15,050, up 100 compared to T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products, effective from January 1, 2026 [3] - The Indonesian government plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [3] - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [5] - Some Indonesian mines are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government [5] - The Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister said that the 2026 nickel production quota will be adjusted according to industry demand, and the output may be around 250 - 260 million tons [5] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [5] - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way from the Philippines to Yangjiang, Guangdong, China [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral state [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. In the short - term, many products are expected to be in a state of shock, while in the long - term, the pig cycle is expected to gradually bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026[11]. - Overall, the supply of oilseeds (soybeans and rapeseeds) is relatively abundant, and the annual output of palm oil is high. Although it is about to enter the production - reduction season with a de - stocking trend, the overall situation of the oil market is complex[7]. - The protein meal market is affected by factors such as international soybean supply and domestic demand, and is expected to be in a state of shock[8]. - The corn market is in a state of tight balance, and the price is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short - term[9]. - The rubber market (both natural and synthetic) is expected to be in a state of shock, with different influencing factors[13][16]. - The cotton market is expected to be in a state of shock and gradually strengthen in the medium - to - long - term, while the sugar market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[17][18]. - The pulp and double - gum paper markets are expected to be in a state of shock and weaken, and the log market is expected to operate in a short - term range[19][22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. 油脂 - **观点**: Export expectations drive the rebound of palm oil. The price of palm oil is strong, driving up the prices of soybean and rapeseed oils slightly. The supply of soybeans and rapeseeds is relatively abundant, and the future supply expectations of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are different[7]. - **Logic**: For palm oil, the market expects good export data in Malaysia from January 1 - 20, but the domestic spot inventory is increasing, and the pre - holiday stocking sentiment is insufficient. For soybean oil, the global soybean production and inventory are expected to increase, and the domestic market's acceptance of high prices is decreasing. For rapeseed oil, future supply expectations are turning loose, but the spot is still tight, and the near - end basis is relatively strong[7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is expected to be in a state of shock, palm oil in a state of shock, and rapeseed oil in a state of shock and weaken[7]. 3.1.2. 蛋白粕 - **观点**: Terminal stocking and point - pricing drive the rebound of double - meal prices at low levels[8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the sowing of Argentine soybeans is nearly finished, and the US soybean demand is supported. The supply of overseas soybeans is expected to increase. Domestically, the low prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal attract downstream stocking, but the adjustment of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed has a slight negative impact[8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all expected to be in a state of shock. Rapeseed meal is expected to be weaker than soybean meal[8]. 3.1.3. 玉米及淀粉 - **观点**: Corn is in a state of range - bound shock[8]. - **Logic**: The current fundamentals are in a tight balance. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the logistics is affected by snow. The downstream feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the deep - processing enterprises' pre - holiday stocking has a certain impact on prices. Policy grain auctions also affect the price[9]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to be in a state of shock[9]. 3.1.4. 生猪 - **观点**: Slaughterhouses' procurement slows down, and the spot and futures prices of live pigs decline[10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the early - January slaughter progress is slow, and secondary fattening has re - entered in some areas. In the medium - term, the supply surplus pressure will last until April 2026. In the long - term, the sow capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand shows a slight weekly increase in slaughter volume, and there is a slight inventory accumulation[11]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be in a state of shock. The industry is advised to focus on short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The pig cycle is expected to gradually bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026[11]. 3.1.5. 沪胶与20号胶 - **观点**: The natural rubber market is in a state of wide - range shock[12]. - **Logic**: Affected by the overall commodity adjustment trend, the rubber price is in a narrow - range shock, and the fundamentals have not changed much. It is mainly driven by macro factors. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the raw material price is firm, but the downstream buying is weak after the price increase[13]. - **Outlook**: The natural rubber market is expected to be in a state of shock[13]. 3.1.6. 合成橡胶 - **观点**: The price is in a state of correction and adjustment, and the market is in a state of shock[16]. - **Logic**: After the previous price increase, there is no further upward momentum, but the downside space is limited. The mid - term bullish logic remains unchanged, mainly based on the expected improvement of butadiene fundamentals. The price of butadiene has been rising recently[16]. - **Outlook**: The butadiene supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but there is still pressure in the short - term. It is expected to be in a state of shock and strengthen in the medium - term[16]. 3.1.7. 棉花 - **观点**: The price continues to adjust, and attention should be paid to the lower support[17]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, due to the exhaustion of short - term benefits and the decline in positions, the cotton price has stopped rising. The fundamentals are generally good, but the increase in cotton yarn imports is a marginal negative factor. In the medium - to - long - term, the cotton price is expected to rise based on the expected tight supply and the reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang[17]. - **Outlook**: The cotton market is expected to be in a state of shock and strengthen[17]. 3.1.8. 白糖 - **观点**: The sugar price is under pressure and closes down[18]. - **Logic**: Globally, the sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season, and both domestic and international prices are under pressure. In the domestic market, the supply is increasing, and the sugar price is expected to be under pressure during the northern hemisphere's listing period[18]. - **Outlook**: The sugar market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[18]. 3.1.9. 纸浆 - **观点**: The price of broad - leaf pulp continues to weaken, and the fundamentals have more concerns[19]. - **Logic**: The fundamentals of pulp have not changed much, with both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include the increase in import costs and the relatively low price difference between needle and broad - leaf pulp. The negative factors include the seasonal decline in demand, abundant supply in the spot market, and the weakening of the broad - leaf pulp price[19]. - **Outlook**: The pulp market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[19]. 3.1.10. 双胶纸 - **观点**: There are no major contradictions, and the price is in a low - level shock[20]. - **Logic**: The market is in a low - level shock, with stable production by large - scale paper enterprises and rational stocking by dealers. The demand is weak, and the price increase is difficult to pass on to the downstream[22]. - **Outlook**: The double - gum paper market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[22]. 3.1.11. 原木 - **观点**: The price of the log futures contract continues to decline, and the valuation has entered a deep - water area[23]. - **Logic**: The log futures contract has declined with increasing positions, and the short - term is dominated by bears. The valuation has entered a low - value area, and the downward space is relatively limited. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the delivery situation has changed. The spot price in the Jiangsu market is rising due to tight supply[23]. - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to operate in a short - term range[23]. 3.2. 品种数据监测 No specific data analysis or summary content is provided in the given text. 3.3. 中信期货商品指数 - On January 20, 2026, the comprehensive index of commodities was 2414.16, a decrease of 0.15%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.48, a decrease of 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2308.47, a decrease of 0.34%[184]. - The agricultural product index on January 20, 2026, was 934.25, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a decline of 1.15% in the past 5 days, an increase of 2.39% in the past month, and an increase of 0.13% since the beginning of the year[186].

Report Overview - The report is a financial futures morning report released by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on December 29, 2025, covering the performance and trading strategies of stock index futures and treasury bond futures [1] 1. Stock Index Futures Market Performance - On December 26, most of the four major A-share stock indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.1% to 3,963.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.54% to 13,603.89 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.14% to 3,243.88 points. The STAR 50 Index fell 0.24% to 1,345.83 points [2] - Market turnover was 2.1811 trillion yuan, an increase of 237.2 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, non-ferrous metals (+3.69%), power equipment (+1.4%), and steel (+1.34%) led the gains, while electronics (-0.71%), light manufacturing (-0.61%), and communications (-0.6%) led the losses [2] - In terms of market strength, IC > IH > IM > IF, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,865/186/3,406 respectively [2] - In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of -1.7 billion, -22.5 billion, -5.7 billion, and 30 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +4 billion, -7.8 billion, -1.1 billion, and +4.9 billion yuan respectively [2] Basis and Basis Annualized Yield - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 75.53, 43.44, 15.24, and -1.8 points respectively, and the basis annualized yields were -7.09%, -4.16%, -2.34%, and 0.42% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 55%, 57%, 42%, and 53% respectively [2] Trading Strategy - In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [3] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Market Performance - On December 25, the trend of interest - rate bonds was weak. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.02%, TF fell 0.03%, T fell 0.02%, and TL fell 0.24% [3] Cash Bond - The current active contract is the 2603 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250017.IB, with a yield change of -0.8 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.018, and an IRR of 1.56%. For the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 2500801.IB, with a yield change of +1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.062, and an IRR of 1.76%. For the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, with a yield change of +0.55 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.038, and an IRR of 1.65%. For the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.267, and an IRR of 0.56% [3] Fundamentals - In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 177.1 billion yuan and withdrew 88.3 billion yuan, with a net injection of 88.8 billion yuan [3] Trading Strategy - In the medium to long term, with the upward shift of risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3] 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of manufacturing, real estate, import and export, and social activities is temporarily lower than in previous periods, while the prosperity of infrastructure is similar to previous periods [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

现在打新也特别多，前几天不是有个kito的跑路了吗。我的建议是，大热盘stable，mega，mmt啥的打打得了，跑路至少有其他老师帮你维权。别自作聪明搞点歪门邪道，最主要是现在不是无脑接盘，没其他老师帮你喊韭菜接盘。你打新出来的也是垃圾，没收益的。反正我是只搞了stble，稳健点啊。还有就是，套保小心点吧，散户盘可以随便套，庄盘真悠着点（很重要的） ...

真的说累了。2025年了，套保没那么简单，傻韭菜没钱了，只能干套利的了。老师我本来jelly 0.05-0.16赚了1m，后面只能80万刀套保仓位，他一路拉盘。我一路减仓。刚才顶着20%溢价减30万刀仓位。送了他6万刀回去。老师已经非常谨慎了，爆仓价格基本都是当前价格的x20倍，拉盘我还亏钱减仓。一直保持20倍爆仓价。 ...