聚烯烃周报： 旺季陆续启动，逢低试多 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 时间：2025/8/24 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 PE：社会库存转为去库，震荡偏强 【下周展望】 近期基本面改善，社会库存去化。供给端变动不大，暂无新增扩能压力，7月进口量为111万吨，累 计同比+2.5%，进口压力缓解。需求端，农膜陆续转为旺季，开工率连续5周上涨。目前产业链整体 库存压力不大，企业库存位于同期高位，社会库存及下游原料库存均处于同期中性偏低水平。 策略： 风险提示：1）上行风险：原油大幅上涨，宏观利好政策超预期；2）下行风险：原油大幅下跌，需 求不及预期。 2 1）单边：回调做多。L2601关注区间【7350-7550】。 2）套利：塑料近期检修力度更高，多LP01套利继续持有。 3）套保：基差同期低位，产业客户可择机卖保。 PP：供给持续攀升，跟随板块区间反弹 【本周回顾】 本周回顾：本周L2601合约在7243至7413宽幅震荡，振幅170点，周线2连阳。上周五夜盘开盘价为 7352，随后一路 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by real enterprises in the context of escalating geopolitical conflicts and volatile commodity prices, emphasizing the need for effective risk management through futures markets [1][2]. Group 1: Challenges Faced by Real Enterprises - Real enterprises are currently facing three core challenges: supply chain security and cost pressure due to geopolitical conflicts, weak market demand and intensified competition, and the need for technological upgrades amidst a talent shortage [1][2]. - The geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions, have led to increased procurement costs and inventory management difficulties for enterprises [1]. - Traditional markets are experiencing slow growth and severe homogenization, resulting in low profit margins for enterprises [1]. - Enterprises need to invest in R&D in areas like AI and quantum computing, but many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) struggle with high R&D costs and lack of skilled personnel [1][2]. Group 2: Bottlenecks in Utilizing Futures Tools - There are six major bottlenecks preventing enterprises from effectively using futures tools: insufficient talent reserves, lack of internal training mechanisms, limited funding and risk control capabilities, inadequate risk management systems, insufficient market liquidity and product matching, and challenges in managing basis risk [2][3]. - Many enterprises lack professionals familiar with futures hedging strategies and contract design, which complicates their ability to implement effective risk management [2]. - The absence of a systematic training framework leads to a misunderstanding of futures tools as merely speculative instruments [2][3]. Group 3: Expectations from the Futures Industry - Enterprises expect the futures industry to provide product innovation and customized services, such as industry-specific contracts and the development of off-exchange derivative tools [3][4]. - There is a call for the establishment of training systems to enhance the comprehensive application capabilities of enterprises regarding futures tools [3][4]. - The optimization of market infrastructure and the expansion of delivery warehouse coverage are also seen as necessary steps to reduce delivery costs for enterprises [3][4]. Group 4: Innovative Strategies for Risk Management - The company has introduced innovative strategies such as a "futures + options" combination strategy and a dual-track inventory management mechanism to help enterprises manage risks effectively [3][4]. - For example, in the lithium carbonate market, the company utilizes a pricing model that integrates cost, profit, inventory, and basis to help enterprises mitigate price volatility risks [3][4][5]. - The dual-track inventory management allows enterprises to adjust their inventory ratios based on market price expectations, optimizing inventory management and cost control [5][6]. Group 5: Addressing the "Generalization" Dilemma - The futures market currently faces challenges in accurately matching the specific needs of various industries due to a tendency towards "generalization" in product coverage and tool design [6][7]. - There is a notable lack of specific futures products for critical raw materials in the new energy sector, which forces enterprises to rely on indirect hedging methods, leading to inefficiencies [6][7]. - The company suggests expanding the variety of futures products and optimizing contract designs to better serve the needs of SMEs and specific industries [6][7][8].

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On July 16, 2025, the main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,900 yuan/ton and closed at 120,550 yuan/ton, a change of 0.91% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 131,554 lots, and the open interest was 54,128 lots [1]. - The main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel fluctuated upward, closing with a positive candlestick. The trading volume increased significantly compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest decreased. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, approaching the edge of turning green, indicating a short - term correction demand. There was a bottom divergence at around 117,000 on June 23, and it is estimated that the 117,000 level is a strong support level in the medium and long term [1]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was raised by 1,650 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands all increased. The refined nickel futures market entered a sideways phase, with increasing downward pressure. The overall spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the supply glut pattern remained unchanged. Although the premium had declined recently, it was still at a high level, so the spot price supported the futures price. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,000 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton [1]. - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,049 (- 506.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 207,288 (708) tons [1]. Strategy - The spot trading of refined nickel has been relatively sluggish recently, and the supply glut pattern remains. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is between 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower limit is around 117,000 - 118,000. Short - term operations are recommended to be postponed, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [2]. - Unilateral: Mainly operate within the range; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On July 16, 2025, the main contract 2508 of stainless steel opened at 12,685 yuan/ton and closed at 12,670 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,703 lots, and the open interest was 100,817 lots [2]. - The main contract of stainless steel rose and then fell again, closing with a small negative candlestick. Affected by the contract switch, the trading volume and open interest of the 09 contract increased compared to the previous trading day. The expansion speed of the red column area of the daily MACD slowed down, and the negative candlestick covering the positive candlestick last Friday indicated pressure above the 40 - day moving average. It is considered that there are two pressure levels at around 12,700 and 13,100. There was a bottom divergence at around 12,400 on June 24, so it is estimated that the 12,400 level is a strong support level in the medium and long term [3]. - In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market raised their quotations by 50 yuan/ton in the morning, but many reduced prices to boost sales in the afternoon. The spot trading volume did not recover well, and market confidence remained insufficient. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation decreased compared to the previous trading day, with most sellers' quotations at 905 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory, tax - included). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,750 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 12,750 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was between 110 and 310 yuan/ton [3]. - According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 900.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The daily line of the stainless steel main contract formed a bottom divergence structure at 12,400. Wait for it to stand firm above the 40 - day moving average pressure level. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is between 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is around 12,400 - 12,500. Short - term operations are recommended to be postponed, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [5]. - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [5]

timefun 最近请了ansem来直播，动作貌似多了起来看着买了快三个月的 $toly 和 $Kawz 稍微动了一下 这次能不能直接上去了然后pump还好当初没选择错，和朋友说来BG打，阳光普照，来了就有虽然我也是定闹钟，掐点打的，但是实际排时间，我也不知道能不能排到我，这样子很合理，不然要领20U卷，那就有点难顶去码头整点薯条 (@0xCryptoFries):BG我到底有没有打进去呀你快说啊套保是套了，没打进去就只能白亏了 https://t.co/9cclcQ6TSe ...

打到现货显示成功再去套保，已经是这次公募最稳健的策略了，即使你为了自己的大仓位算好各种情况下费率的磨损，也很难想到在地球另一边某几个草台程序员搞的低级错误会成为你遇到的最大的风险。这种情况太可怕了，感觉是命里怎么也躲不掉的陷阱，能防范大亏损的只有经常出金以及无论什么机会也要有一个上限仓位。老叶 1999.eth (@1999_eth):@Bybit_Official 关键前面直接显示购买成功！哪知道还有这种幺蛾子！特么的，我还开了空单！结果空单也亏钱了！！C.N.M 还钱！ @Bybit_Official https://t.co/PKagW9zzfj ...

BG我到底有没有打进去呀你快说啊套保是套了，没打进去就只能白亏了 https://t.co/9cclcQ6TSe去码头整点薯条 (@0xCryptoFries):最近资金都在等今晚pump，链上资金不是很火热来都来了，肯定打的，套保了我要打的仓位的70%，反正有30%的价差，资金费率合理，价差的利润就当降低预售的成本了希望到时候锁仓的48H的资金费率也合理，别被多头把价差吃回去了也买了点pump官宣收购的 $kolscan感觉多少能蹭蹭，来都来了，都来点 ...

传统市场经常期货绞杀事件，大多数都是多头胜利，因为空头会存在天然的劣势，随着上涨保证金需要成倍的增加。很多时候期货价格也被打到非常离谱的价格，22年青山集团的镍就是。更别说币圈这种妖魔鬼怪的地方了，什么都有可能发生。之前trb不就是，币安500，ok750，巨大的价差，套利的一夜回到解放前。Hype是没有指数价格的，大持仓低流动性（20年以前的币圈），很容易连环爆，万一发生了，可能又是币安0.012，hype0.015这样。持续短短1分钟这样，你来不及补仓，仓位就无了，然后等你想重新开回来的时候，已经插针了。主要是想说，套保是可以，但是不要把自己放在一个很被动的地方，很多人老问我1x套保可以不可以，大多数情况是安全的。但是如果发生连环清算呢，你是不是就一夜回到解放前了。 ...

Risk Management Strategies for $PUMP Token - Suggests a relatively stable hedging strategy for $PUMP, considering uncertainties post-launch [1] - Recommends a 2x margin (0.5x leverage) with an initial 30% short position, gradually increasing to 43% via TWAP [1] - Emphasizes that hedging is for value preservation, not profit locking, advising against excessive hedging due to complexity [1] - A 43% hedge aims to prevent losses if the price drops to 0.0033 [1] Challenges in $PUMP Token Trading - Some users experienced difficulties in executing trades on certain exchanges [1] - Issues reported include problems with KYC completion and balance display on the official website [1]

刚才调查了2小时，pump一开始缺失了不少视角。更改下观点。老外很fomo。老外顶着溢价开多，生怕打不到，套保可能是赚老外的钱？套保最怕项目方小池子开盘。如果打的很快，那盘前是会涨的。博弈点太多了，不过这2天盘前肯定不会裸空的。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, industrial silicon rose 5.45% and polysilicon rose 16.39%. Both have shown signs of fatigue, and it is expected that they may start to correct next week. The correction range of polysilicon is expected to be smaller than that of industrial silicon [7]. - For industrial silicon, the overall demand from its three major downstream industries continues to slow down. For polysilicon, the demand side still faces significant pressure, and most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging [7]. - It is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon fluctuate within the range of 7600 - 8600, with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800. The main contract of polysilicon should fluctuate in the short term, within the range of 37500 - 42500, with a stop - loss range of 36500 - 43000 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon rose 5.45% this week, driven by an anti - involution meeting. Polysilicon rose 16.39%, driven by the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry. However, short - term polysilicon has entered an overheated state, and the market's upward momentum has gradually declined [7]. - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, the supply in the northwest remains stable, and the production cost in the southwest has decreased. The overall demand from downstream industries has slowed down. For polysilicon, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand has weakened. It is expected that both may correct next week, with polysilicon's correction range being smaller [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract of industrial silicon should fluctuate within 7600 - 8600, with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800. The main contract of polysilicon should fluctuate in the short term, within 37500 - 42500, with a stop - loss range of 36500 - 43000 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Industrial Silicon**: This week, the price of industrial silicon rose, the spot price increased, and the basis weakened. As of July 11, 2025, the spot price was 8750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 335 yuan/ton [13][15]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the futures price of polysilicon rebounded, the basis strengthened, and the spot price increased. As of July 11, 2025, the spot price was 46 yuan/kg, up 10 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was 4700 yuan/gram [17][19]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Industrial Silicon Supply**: This week, the production and operating rate of industrial silicon increased. As of July 11, 2025, the national output was about 77,600 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 53.44% [21][22]. - **Cost**: This week, the raw materials of industrial silicon decreased slightly, and the electricity price was adjusted downwards. During the wet season, the overall cost continued to decline [25]. - **Inventory**: This week, the warehouse receipts of industrial silicon decreased, the social inventory increased, and the overall inventory continued to decline. As of July 11, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts was 50,544 lots, a decrease of 1372 lots from last week, and the total social inventory was 551,000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons [30][34]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: The production and operating rate of organic silicon increased, the short - term profit was repaired, and the production continued. As of July 11, 2025, the weekly output was 44,800 tons, a decrease of 100 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 69.41%, an increase of 1.17% [36][40]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of aluminum alloy increased, the inventory increased, and it was still in the stage of passive de - stocking. It is expected that the demand for industrial silicon will remain weak [48]. - **Silicon Wafer and Cell**: The prices of silicon wafers and cells decreased, which dragged down the demand for polysilicon and industrial silicon [55]. - **Polysilicon Cost and Production**: This week, the cost of polysilicon remained flat, and it is expected that the production will gradually decline. In June 2025, the total output of polysilicon plants in China was 92,160 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15% [62][64].