金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：2 月 2 日，A 股四大股指有所下跌，其中上证指数下跌 2.48%，报收 4015.75 点；深成指 下跌 2.69%，报收 13824.35 点；创业板指下跌 2.46%，报收 3264.11 点；科创 50 指数下跌 3.88%， 报收 1450.9 点。市场成交 26,066 亿元，较前日减少 2,558 亿元。行业板块方面，食品饮料(+1.11%)， 银行(+0.17%)，家用电器(-0.49%)涨幅居前；有色金属(-7.62%)，钢铁(-5.93%)，基础化工(-5.69%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IM>IC，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 770/54/4,647。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-384、-155、222、318 亿元，分别变动-81、+137、+204、 股指期货 -260 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 103.63、133.85、28.58 与-1.06 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-11.2%、-14.36%、-5.35%与 0.31%，三年期历史分位数分别为 35%、9%、2 ...

资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM 【宏观及行业新闻】 2026 年 1 月 27 日 商 品 研 究 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 145,380 | -2,630 | 3,060 | 1,180 | 19,970 | 23,230 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 14,645 | -80 | 340 | 790 | 1,655 | 1,835 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 718,003 | -34,837 | -231,369 | -365,199 | 67,199 | 572,800 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 555,399 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. In the short - term, many products are expected to be in a state of shock, while in the long - term, the pig cycle is expected to gradually bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026[11]. - Overall, the supply of oilseeds (soybeans and rapeseeds) is relatively abundant, and the annual output of palm oil is high. Although it is about to enter the production - reduction season with a de - stocking trend, the overall situation of the oil market is complex[7]. - The protein meal market is affected by factors such as international soybean supply and domestic demand, and is expected to be in a state of shock[8]. - The corn market is in a state of tight balance, and the price is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short - term[9]. - The rubber market (both natural and synthetic) is expected to be in a state of shock, with different influencing factors[13][16]. - The cotton market is expected to be in a state of shock and gradually strengthen in the medium - to - long - term, while the sugar market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[17][18]. - The pulp and double - gum paper markets are expected to be in a state of shock and weaken, and the log market is expected to operate in a short - term range[19][22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. 油脂 - **观点**: Export expectations drive the rebound of palm oil. The price of palm oil is strong, driving up the prices of soybean and rapeseed oils slightly. The supply of soybeans and rapeseeds is relatively abundant, and the future supply expectations of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are different[7]. - **Logic**: For palm oil, the market expects good export data in Malaysia from January 1 - 20, but the domestic spot inventory is increasing, and the pre - holiday stocking sentiment is insufficient. For soybean oil, the global soybean production and inventory are expected to increase, and the domestic market's acceptance of high prices is decreasing. For rapeseed oil, future supply expectations are turning loose, but the spot is still tight, and the near - end basis is relatively strong[7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is expected to be in a state of shock, palm oil in a state of shock, and rapeseed oil in a state of shock and weaken[7]. 3.1.2. 蛋白粕 - **观点**: Terminal stocking and point - pricing drive the rebound of double - meal prices at low levels[8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the sowing of Argentine soybeans is nearly finished, and the US soybean demand is supported. The supply of overseas soybeans is expected to increase. Domestically, the low prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal attract downstream stocking, but the adjustment of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed has a slight negative impact[8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all expected to be in a state of shock. Rapeseed meal is expected to be weaker than soybean meal[8]. 3.1.3. 玉米及淀粉 - **观点**: Corn is in a state of range - bound shock[8]. - **Logic**: The current fundamentals are in a tight balance. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the logistics is affected by snow. The downstream feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the deep - processing enterprises' pre - holiday stocking has a certain impact on prices. Policy grain auctions also affect the price[9]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to be in a state of shock[9]. 3.1.4. 生猪 - **观点**: Slaughterhouses' procurement slows down, and the spot and futures prices of live pigs decline[10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the early - January slaughter progress is slow, and secondary fattening has re - entered in some areas. In the medium - term, the supply surplus pressure will last until April 2026. In the long - term, the sow capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand shows a slight weekly increase in slaughter volume, and there is a slight inventory accumulation[11]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be in a state of shock. The industry is advised to focus on short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The pig cycle is expected to gradually bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026[11]. 3.1.5. 沪胶与20号胶 - **观点**: The natural rubber market is in a state of wide - range shock[12]. - **Logic**: Affected by the overall commodity adjustment trend, the rubber price is in a narrow - range shock, and the fundamentals have not changed much. It is mainly driven by macro factors. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the raw material price is firm, but the downstream buying is weak after the price increase[13]. - **Outlook**: The natural rubber market is expected to be in a state of shock[13]. 3.1.6. 合成橡胶 - **观点**: The price is in a state of correction and adjustment, and the market is in a state of shock[16]. - **Logic**: After the previous price increase, there is no further upward momentum, but the downside space is limited. The mid - term bullish logic remains unchanged, mainly based on the expected improvement of butadiene fundamentals. The price of butadiene has been rising recently[16]. - **Outlook**: The butadiene supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but there is still pressure in the short - term. It is expected to be in a state of shock and strengthen in the medium - term[16]. 3.1.7. 棉花 - **观点**: The price continues to adjust, and attention should be paid to the lower support[17]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, due to the exhaustion of short - term benefits and the decline in positions, the cotton price has stopped rising. The fundamentals are generally good, but the increase in cotton yarn imports is a marginal negative factor. In the medium - to - long - term, the cotton price is expected to rise based on the expected tight supply and the reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang[17]. - **Outlook**: The cotton market is expected to be in a state of shock and strengthen[17]. 3.1.8. 白糖 - **观点**: The sugar price is under pressure and closes down[18]. - **Logic**: Globally, the sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season, and both domestic and international prices are under pressure. In the domestic market, the supply is increasing, and the sugar price is expected to be under pressure during the northern hemisphere's listing period[18]. - **Outlook**: The sugar market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[18]. 3.1.9. 纸浆 - **观点**: The price of broad - leaf pulp continues to weaken, and the fundamentals have more concerns[19]. - **Logic**: The fundamentals of pulp have not changed much, with both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include the increase in import costs and the relatively low price difference between needle and broad - leaf pulp. The negative factors include the seasonal decline in demand, abundant supply in the spot market, and the weakening of the broad - leaf pulp price[19]. - **Outlook**: The pulp market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[19]. 3.1.10. 双胶纸 - **观点**: There are no major contradictions, and the price is in a low - level shock[20]. - **Logic**: The market is in a low - level shock, with stable production by large - scale paper enterprises and rational stocking by dealers. The demand is weak, and the price increase is difficult to pass on to the downstream[22]. - **Outlook**: The double - gum paper market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[22]. 3.1.11. 原木 - **观点**: The price of the log futures contract continues to decline, and the valuation has entered a deep - water area[23]. - **Logic**: The log futures contract has declined with increasing positions, and the short - term is dominated by bears. The valuation has entered a low - value area, and the downward space is relatively limited. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the delivery situation has changed. The spot price in the Jiangsu market is rising due to tight supply[23]. - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to operate in a short - term range[23]. 3.2. 品种数据监测 No specific data analysis or summary content is provided in the given text. 3.3. 中信期货商品指数 - On January 20, 2026, the comprehensive index of commodities was 2414.16, a decrease of 0.15%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.48, a decrease of 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2308.47, a decrease of 0.34%[184]. - The agricultural product index on January 20, 2026, was 934.25, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a decline of 1.15% in the past 5 days, an increase of 2.39% in the past month, and an increase of 0.13% since the beginning of the year[186].

金融研究 2025年12月29日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 股指期货 市场表现：12 月 26 日，A 股四大股指多数上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.1%，报收 3963.68 点；深成 指上涨 0.54%，报收 13603.89 点；创业板指上涨 0.14%，报收 3243.88 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.24%， 报收 1345.83 点。市场成交 21,811 亿元，较前日增加 2,372 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(+3.69%)， 电力设备(+1.4%)，钢铁(+1.34%)涨幅居前；电子(-0.71%)，轻工制造(-0.61%)，通信(-0.6%)跌幅居 前。从市场强弱看，IC>IH>IM>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,865/186/3,406。沪深两市，机构、主力、 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-17、-225、-57、300 亿元，分别变动+40、-78、-11、+49 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 75.53、43.44、15.24 与-1.8 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-7.09%、-4.16%、-2.34%与 0.42%，三年期历史分位 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

现在打新也特别多，前几天不是有个kito的跑路了吗。我的建议是，大热盘stable，mega，mmt啥的打打得了，跑路至少有其他老师帮你维权。别自作聪明搞点歪门邪道，最主要是现在不是无脑接盘，没其他老师帮你喊韭菜接盘。你打新出来的也是垃圾，没收益的。反正我是只搞了stble，稳健点啊。还有就是，套保小心点吧，散户盘可以随便套，庄盘真悠着点（很重要的） ...

真的说累了。2025年了，套保没那么简单，傻韭菜没钱了，只能干套利的了。老师我本来jelly 0.05-0.16赚了1m，后面只能80万刀套保仓位，他一路拉盘。我一路减仓。刚才顶着20%溢价减30万刀仓位。送了他6万刀回去。老师已经非常谨慎了，爆仓价格基本都是当前价格的x20倍，拉盘我还亏钱减仓。一直保持20倍爆仓价。 ...

Mmt应该就是顶着套保的，我这认识一堆0.5套保的。这到底是多久解锁？ ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the integration of technology and services in the futures market, particularly through the "Qizhi Hui" platform, which enhances the hedging experience for enterprises [1][2][3] Group 1: Technology and Innovation - The "Qizhi Hui" platform utilizes advanced technology to provide clear market insights and facilitate effective hedging strategies for enterprises [1] - The platform supports intelligent hedging, allowing for automatic plan generation, simulation backtesting, and project evaluation [1] - The digital transformation in the futures market is driven by the need for better tools and professional support for enterprises [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Risk Management - Enterprises face challenges in hedging due to a lack of suitable tools and professional support, which the "Qizhi Hui" platform aims to address [2] - The use of out-of-the-market options as a hedging tool provides flexibility and helps enterprises manage risks associated with price fluctuations in raw materials [2] - The implementation of out-of-the-market options allows enterprises to lock in procurement costs while benefiting from price increases, thus stabilizing operations in volatile markets [2] Group 3: Future Directions - The company aims to continue enhancing services for the real economy by promoting the use of digital futures tools among more enterprises [3] - The focus is on developing personalized hedging solutions that align closely with enterprise needs, leveraging the flexibility of out-of-the-market options [3] - The goal is to support the stable development of industrial enterprises through professional financial services and precise risk management [3]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Monthly Report: Supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, focus on low-buying opportunities [1] - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team [2] Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - For plastics, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. With limited further negative supply factors and improving demand from the agricultural film sector, the spot price is likely to rise and difficult to fall. Attention should be paid to low-buying opportunities [3]. - For PP, due to insufficient existing maintenance and new capacity release, the output continues to reach new highs. The industry's weak outlook restricts the rebound height. Attention should be paid to changes in macro policies and warehouse receipts [6]. Summary by Sections Plastic Market Review - **Price Movement**: In August, the Wenhua Chemical Index closed with three consecutive positive candles. Olefins were weaker than chemicals, but plastics were relatively resistant to decline in the olefin sector. The L2601 fluctuated in the range of 7,243 - 7,455, with an amplitude of 212 points. The monthly closing price was 7,287, down 112 points from the previous month [11]. - **Basis and Position**: In the first half of August, the basis of North China 09 contract was repaired to near par. After the main contract shifted to 01 on August 15, the main contract was at a premium to the spot again. The position of the 01 contract remained around 400,000 lots, similar to the same period last year [13]. - **Spread Analysis**: The difference between September and January contracts of plastics changed little. With the arrival of the peak season in September and the low 1 - 5 spread, it is recommended to consider positive arbitrage opportunities based on the strength of the downstream peak season. The LP spread continued to widen in August, and the long LP01 position should be held [15][17]. Plastic Supply - **Production**: This week's PE output was 620,000 tons (down 43,000 tons week-on-week), ending a six - week upward trend. The capacity utilization rate was 79%. From January to week 34, the cumulative year - on - year output growth rates of PE, LL, HD, and LD were +18%, 28%, 10%, and 15% respectively. The supply pressure of LD eased, while that of HD increased [20]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, 5.43 million tons of new devices are planned to be put into production. As of now, 3.43 million tons have been put into operation. The remaining Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons) is planned to be put into production in October, and Exxon's (500,000 tons) non - standard device is expected to be put into operation in September [20]. - **Import and Export**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PE import volume was 8.03 million tons (up 2.5% year - on - year), and the cumulative export volume was 610,000 tons (up 21% year - on - year) [22]. Plastic Demand - **Domestic Demand**: This week, the downstream PE operating rate was 40% (up 0.3 percentage points month - on - month), and the agricultural film operating rate improved for six consecutive weeks. From January to July, the apparent PE consumption was 26.29 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.5% [25]. - **Exports**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative export value of plastics and products was $83.1 billion (up 1.2% year - on - year), and the proportion of exports to the US was 14% [27]. Plastic Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: This week, the enterprise inventory decreased to 427,000 tons (down 75,000 tons week - on - week), and the enterprise inventory pressure eased. The social inventory was 560,000 tons (up 5,500 tons week - on - week). The current inventory pressure in the industrial chain is not large, and the downstream raw material inventory remains at a relatively low level [30]. Plastic Profit - The current weighted gross profit of LL is at a neutral level compared to the same period, and the cost drive is not strong [33]. PP Market Review - **Price Movement**: In August, the PP price showed a unilateral decline. The PP2601 fluctuated in the range of 6,967 - 7,163, with an amplitude of 196 points. The final closing price was 6,974, down 140 points from the previous month [36]. - **Spread Analysis**: Affected by profit pressure and the leap month, the peak season started slowly this year, and downstream orders remained weak. The 9 - 1 spread of PP continued the reverse arbitrage trend in August, and the 1 - 5 spread is expected to continue the reverse arbitrage trend [41]. - **Arbitrage**: The MTO disk profit is slowly recovering [42]. PP Supply - **Production**: This week, the PP output was 810,000 tons (up 23,000 tons week - on - week), increasing for four consecutive weeks. The total estimated output of polypropylene in China next week is 813,000 tons, continuing the upward trend [45]. - **Cost and Profit**: The current weighted gross profit of PP remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The PDH gross profit has significantly recovered, and the production capacity utilization rate is expected to increase [46]. PP Import and Export - From January to July 2025, the cumulative PP import volume was 1.92 million tons (down 8% year - on - year), and the cumulative export volume was 1.83 million tons (up 29% year - on - year). In July, PP became a net importer. It is expected to become a net exporter again in the future [51]. PP Demand - The downstream operating rate of PP remains at around 50%. From January to May, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 13.3% [52]. PP Inventory - The inventory of enterprises and traders is being reduced from a high level [53]. Strategies - **Plastic Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Try to buy at low prices. Focus on the range of [7,250 - 7,500] for L2601 [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the long LP01 arbitrage position [5]. - **Hedging**: Since the basis is at a low level compared to the same period, industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge [5]. - **PP Strategies** - **Unilateral**: The valuation is low but the upward drive is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is advisable to wait and see. Focus on the range of [6,900 - 7,150] for PP2601 [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the long LP01 position [8]. - **Hedging**: Since the basis is at a low level compared to the same period, sell - hedging can be considered [7].