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FICC日报:运价高位震荡-20250711
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 03:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the container shipping market, especially the Far - East to Europe route. It indicates that the freight rate is oscillating at a high level. The 8 - month contract freight rate is likely to peak and decline, while the 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season. The 12 - month contract's price is usually higher than that of the 10 - month contract, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume operation. The strategy suggests that the main contract will oscillate, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract [4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Price As of July 11, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 76,829.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 51,307.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1365.70, EC2604 is 1204.00, EC2506 is 1342.10, EC2508 is 2022.50, EC2510 is 1401.10, and EC2512 is 1556.40 [7]. 3.2 Spot Price On July 4, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 2101.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2089.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 4124.00 US dollars/FEU. On July 7, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 2258.04 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1557.77 points [7]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 6, 2025, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 11.12 million TEU. The weekly average capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 4 weeks of July is 294,100 TEU, and the monthly average capacity in August is 305,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August [3][7]. 3.4 Supply Chain Geopolitical factors affect the shipping supply chain. The Israel - Hamas conflict situation is complex, and the Houthi armed forces' attacks on ships in the Red Sea continue. The passage of ships through important canals such as the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope, and the Panama Canal is also a focus [2]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy The report does not provide specific analysis content on demand and the European economy, only lists relevant data charts such as port container throughput, EU 27 industrial production index, and EU 27 imports from China [73]. 3.6 Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract oscillates. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short on the 10 - month contract [8].