1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The valuation of the main contract EC2604 is gradually becoming clear, but the far - month contracts may still face emotional disturbances. The 6, 7, and 8 - month contracts in the peak season have strong expectations, but the actual freight rates are still uncertain. The blockade of the Mandeb Strait by the Houthi rebels may drive up the freight rates of far - month contracts [4][5][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes from different shipping companies for Shanghai - Rotterdam routes in different weeks and months are provided, including quotes from Gemini Cooperation, HPL, MSC + Premier Alliance, Ocean Alliance, etc. [1] 3.2 Geopolitical Situation - An Iranian military source said that Iran is monitoring the enemy's movements. If the enemy takes actions in Iranian territory or increases Iran's defense costs through maritime activities, Iran will respond. Iran has the ability to threaten the Mandeb Strait. [2] 3.3 Supply Situation - **Static Supply**: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU have been delivered in 2026. The delivery expectations for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 17,000 + TEU ships from 2026 to 2029 are provided. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small. [2][3] - **Dynamic Supply**: The weekly average capacity of China - European base ports from March to May is given. There are TBNs and empty flights in April and May. [3] 3.4 Contract Analysis - **Main Contract EC2604**: Maersk's freight rate in the second week of April decreased. The valuation of the April contract is gradually clear, but due to geopolitical risks, the volatility of the contract may be amplified. It is recommended that investors follow the spot market and operate flexibly. [4] - **Peak - season Contracts (6, 7, 8 months)**: The expectations for these contracts are strong. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of 2026, the relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and the relatively high year - on - year growth rate of the Asian - European demand side. However, the actual freight rates are still uncertain, and investors need to respond flexibly. [5][6] 3.5 Market Impact - The Houthi rebels' possible blockade of the Mandeb Strait may drive up the freight rates of far - month contracts. Since December 2023, the number of ships passing through the Aden Gulf has decreased significantly. [7] 3.6 Shipping Company News - On March 25, COSCO Shipping Lines resumed new booking business for ordinary containers to Middle - East Gulf countries. However, ships will not pass through the Hormuz Strait directly but will use land transfer after reaching ports on the east side of the strait. [7] 3.7 Market Data - As of March 25, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes is 38,261.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 35,860.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes are also given. [8] 3.8 Strategy - **Unilateral**: None - **Arbitrage**: Long EC2606 and short EC2610 [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The April contract is gradually returning to real - end trading. Pay attention to Maersk's price offer in the first week of April [1] - The main contract EC2604 is approaching delivery. It is necessary to focus on the shipping companies' willingness to support prices and actual price adjustments. The volatility of the EC2604 contract may be amplified due to geopolitical risks and the game between price - support expectations and actual landing prices [6] - For the relatively peak - season contracts in June, July, and August, the current expectations are strong. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of the year, relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and relatively high year - on - year growth in the demand side of Asia - Europe trade. However, the actual freight rates in the future are still uncertain, and investors need to respond flexibly [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of March 16, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 54,037.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 58,796.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2604 contract closed at 1938.80, EC2605 at 2175.00 points, EC2606 at 2394.40, EC2607 at 2500.60, EC2608 at 2375.00, EC2609 at 1716.80, EC2610 at 1568.00, and EC2512 at 1814.00 [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - On March 13, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1618 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2249 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 3111 US dollars/FEU. On March 16, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1556.49 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1109.11 points [8] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU were delivered in 2026. For 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 6 ships with a total of 86,000 TEU were delivered; for ships over 17,000 TEU, 1 ship with a capacity of 17,148 TEU was delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 679,000 TEU (46 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,224,000 TEU (84 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,636,000 TEU (81 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 [4] - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 3 weeks of March was 308,200 TEU. The capacities in weeks 12, 13, and 14 were 310,600, 282,100, and 331,800 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in April was 326,200 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 15, 16, 17, and 18 were 331,300, 304,200, 329,000, and 340,600 TEU respectively. The average monthly capacity in May was 311,800 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 19, 20, 21, and 22 were 324,000, 313,100, 318,400, and 291,900 TEU respectively. There were 8 blank sailings in March (3 by the OA alliance, 1 by the Gemini alliance, and 4 by the MSC/PA alliance) and 1 TBN (by the OA alliance), 3 TBNs in April, and 6 TBNs in May [5] 3.4 Supply Chain - After the Israel - Iran conflict, shipping companies tried to support prices in the off - season. Maersk offered a price of 2200 - 2300 US dollars/FEU in the second week of the second half of March (equivalent to 1600 - 1700 points of SCFIS), MSC's online quote in the last week of March was 3040 US dollars/FEU (300 US dollars/FEU higher than the first week of the second half of March), and ONE's price in the second half of March was between 2435 - 2755 US dollars/FEU. Most shipping companies announced emergency fuel surcharges, but it is expected that the impact on the disk valuation is relatively controllable [6] - Some ships operating in the Middle East were transferred to the European line, increasing the supply - side pressure and potentially affecting the European line freight rates [6] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The year - on - year growth rate of the demand side of Asia - Europe trade has been relatively high, with the year - on - year growth rate of container trade volume in most months exceeding 10%. After the Israel - Iran conflict, new expectations have emerged for the peak - season contracts. It is necessary to pay attention to whether developed countries in Europe and the United States will increase imports from China due to concerns about future inflation, which may drive up China's export demand. At the same time, it is also necessary to guard against the expectation of a global economic recession caused by excessive increases in oil prices [7] 3.6 Strategy - **Single - side**: None - **Arbitrage**: Go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [9]

Core Viewpoint - Iran has not blocked the Strait of Hormuz, and is processing vessels according to international rules and established agreements [1] Group 1 - The statement from Iran's Central Command Deputy Commander Amir Haidari was made during an interview on the 5th [1] - Following the announcement, the European shipping index futures dropped by 5%, currently reported at 1725.10 points [1] - Crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened with a limit increase but then fell sharply by over 8%; both WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropped by more than 1 USD [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the European shipping index futures experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping by 6% to 1225 points [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant increases in various commodity futures, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1] - The shipping index in Europe has risen by 4.44%, reflecting strong demand in the shipping sector [1] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased by 3.39%, suggesting heightened interest in electric vehicle production and battery manufacturing [1] - Nickel prices have seen a rise of 2.42%, which may indicate growing demand in stainless steel and battery applications [1] - Urea prices have increased by 2.01%, potentially reflecting changes in agricultural demand [1] - Soybean futures have risen by 1.91%, which could be linked to supply chain dynamics and agricultural market trends [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance of various commodity futures, highlighting significant fluctuations in indices and specific commodities [1][2] Group 2 - The European shipping index futures have decreased by 3.67% [1] - Tin has seen a continuous increase of 3.42% [1] - Rapeseed has increased by 3.28% [1] - Silver has risen by 3.10% [1] - Styrene has experienced a continuous decline of 2.66% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment view: The short - term investment view is "oscillating", with the short - term short - selling cost - effectiveness decreasing, and waiting for a short - selling opportunity during the off - season rebound. The trading strategy is to short on the off - season rebound and conduct a 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The current container shipping index for the European line has low trading volume, and there is limited driving force under the low - valuation situation. The spot freight rate is affected by the pre - Spring Festival cargo volume vacuum period, and each alliance's quotes are adjusted differently. The political and economic situation has a neutral impact. The supply of shipping capacity shows a certain change trend, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season, with an imbalance between supply and demand. In the short - term, there is a complex pattern of short - term gaming and long - term pressure. The long - term core contradiction lies in the over - capacity [3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot freight rate**: Affected by the pre - Spring Festival cargo volume vacuum period, the overall European line spot freight rate is in a declining trend. Each alliance's quotes are adjusted differently, with each alliance reducing prices to grab cargo volume, and the weak supply - demand reality suppresses the freight rate. Three leading shipping companies have proposed to raise the price to $3000/FEU in March [3] - **Political and economic factors**: The White House plans to hold a "Peace Committee" leaders' meeting on February 19, 2026, to promote the second - stage implementation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement and raise funds for Gaza reconstruction. Trump said that the US - Iran talks in Oman were "very good" and will continue to contact next week. The US - Iran indirect nuclear negotiations were restarted on February 6, 2026 [3] - **Shipping capacity supply**: The weekly average shipping capacity from November 2025 to March 2026 shows different values, with a decrease in February 2026 [3] - **Demand**: The current demand for the container shipping European line is in a seasonal off - season, with insufficient rigid demand support and light transactions. The cargo volume at major ports in East and North China has continued to decline, and the ship companies' price cuts to stimulate demand have limited effects, and the supply - demand imbalance remains unchanged. The futures market has expectations of post - festival demand recovery, but the main contract price of the European line container shipping has been oscillating downward since February, indicating insufficient confidence in short - term demand recovery [3] - **Summary**: The investment in the container shipping European line shows a complex pattern of short - term gaming and long - term pressure. In the short - term, the futures market shows a contango structure, but the spot freight rate continues to decline, and the divergence between futures and spot prices intensifies the volatility. In the long - term, the core contradiction is over - capacity, and variables such as geopolitical situations and the development of the Arctic route add uncertainties [3] - **Investment view and trading strategy**: The short - term short - selling cost - effectiveness is decreasing, waiting for a short - selling opportunity during the off - season rebound. The trading strategy is to short on the off - season rebound and conduct a 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [3] 3.2 Price - The report presents the price trends of the European line index, the US West line index, and the US East line index through charts, including SCFIS, SCFI, and CCFI [6] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order volume**: The report shows the order volume data of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 to 2025 through charts [11] - **Delivery volume**: It presents the delivery volume data of container ships with different loading capacities from 2020 to 2025 through charts [14] - **Demolition volume**: It shows the demolition volume data of container ships with different loading capacities from 2020 to 2025 through charts [15] - **Future delivery**: It presents the future delivery volume data of container ships with different loading capacities from 2023 to 2029 through charts, including quarterly and seasonal data [20] - **Ship - breaking price**: It shows the ship - breaking price data of container ships with different loading capacities from 2019 to 2025 through charts [27] - **New - building price**: It presents the new - building price index and the new - building price data of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 to 2024 through charts [27] - **Second - hand ship price**: It shows the second - hand ship price index and the second - hand ship price data of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 to 2025 through charts [33] - **Existing shipping capacity**: It presents the existing shipping capacity data of container ships, including the total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, the average age, and the average age of ship - breaking through charts [42] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping schedule**: It shows the total shipping capacity deployment, the shipping capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, MSC) from Shanghai to European basic ports from week 13 to week 28 through charts [57] - **Desulfurization tower installation**: It presents the data of container ships with desulfurization towers installed, being installed, the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, and the average speed through charts [67] - **Idle shipping capacity**: It shows the idle shipping capacity data of container ships, including the total idle capacity, idle capacity by loading capacity, the proportion of idle ships, and the capacity of hot - idle and retrofitted ships through charts [75]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the European shipping index futures have increased by 4% on February 5, currently reported at 1270.60 points [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the European shipping index futures have experienced a significant decline, dropping by 4% to a current level of 1173.10 points [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the main contract of the European shipping index futures has seen an intraday increase of 3%, reaching 1267.6 points [1]