Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The live hog market maintains a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The market is under pressure in the short term, with the September contract expected to be weak, while the macro sentiment provides strong support for the long - term. The spread structure has switched to a reverse spread, and investors should pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: Henan spot price is 14,130 yuan/ton (down 300 yuan/ton year - on - year), Sichuan spot price is 13,600 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year), and Guangdong spot price is 15,540 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan/ton year - on - year). For futures, the price of Live Hog 2509 is 13,940 yuan/ton (down 115 yuan/ton year - on - year), Live Hog 2511 is 13,905 yuan/ton (up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year), and Live Hog 2601 is 14,185 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton year - on - year) [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Live Hog 2509 is 23,128 lots (down 8,228 lots from the previous day), with an open interest of 38,250 lots (down 2,721 lots from the previous day); Live Hog 2511 has a trading volume of 18,703 lots (down 5,958 lots from the previous day) and an open interest of 52,319 lots (up 1,115 lots from the previous day); Live Hog 2601 has a trading volume of 11,229 lots (down 2,530 lots from the previous day) and an open interest of 40,508 lots (up 113 lots from the previous day) [3]. - **Spreads**: The basis of Live Hog 2509 is 190 yuan/ton (down 185 yuan/ton year - on - year), Live Hog 2511 is 225 yuan/ton (down 355 yuan/ton year - on - year), and Live Hog 2601 is - 55 yuan/ton (down 305 yuan/ton year - on - year). The spread between Live Hog 9 - 11 is 35 yuan/ton (down 170 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the spread between Live Hog 11 - 1 is - 280 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year) [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4]. 3.3 Market Logic - The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume - reduction and price - pulling efforts were less than expected. Retailers and second - fattening groups are panicked. The group's planned slaughter volume in August is increasing, while demand growth is limited, putting pressure on the market. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, and the futures price is significantly higher than the warehouse - receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. It is expected to be weak. The macro sentiment strongly supports the long - term, resulting in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The spread structure has switched to a reverse spread. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5].