Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 20, 2025 [1] - Main topic: Pig market analysis, waiting for the end - of - month spot verification [1] Group 2: Analysts - Zhou Xiaoqiu, investment consulting qualification number: Z0001891, email: zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com [2] - Wu Hao, investment consulting qualification number: Z0018592, email: wuhao8@gtht.com [2] Group 3: Pig Fundamental Data Spot prices - Henan spot price: 13,880 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton [3] - Sichuan spot price: 13,550 yuan/ton, year - on - year unchanged [3] - Guangdong spot price: 14,990 yuan/ton, year - on - year unchanged [3] Futures prices - Pig 2509: 13,780 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 140 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2511: 13,900 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 80 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2601: 14,200 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton [3] Trading volume and open interest - Pig 2509: trading volume 3,384 lots, down 4,450 lots from the previous day; open interest 13,091 lots, down 1,000 lots from the previous day [3] - Pig 2511: trading volume 20,770 lots, down 14,938 lots from the previous day; open interest 67,934 lots, down 3,259 lots from the previous day [3] - Pig 2601: trading volume 7,300 lots, down 5,823 lots from the previous day; open interest 47,359 lots, down 424 lots from the previous day [3] Price spreads - Pig 2509 basis: 100 yuan/ton, year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2511 basis: - 20 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2601 basis: - 320 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 60 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 9 - 11 spread: - 120 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 60 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 11 - 1 spread: - 300 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - Trend intensity: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] Group 5: Market Logic - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig farms increased, small - scale farmers had passive pressure on inventory, demand growth was limited, and market pressure was high. Recent daily transactions were poor, and it was difficult to absorb market supply. Weekend spot performance was again below expectations, and there was a sentiment of panic selling [5] - The September contract was still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, which increased the industry's willingness to deliver, and the premium - narrowing market continued [5] - The sentiment of purchasing piglets declined, and the price decline accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter in March. Attention should be paid to the risk of a downward shift in the far - end price center, and profit - taking and stop - loss should be noted [5] - The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract was 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level was 14,500 yuan/ton [5]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the hog market, analyzing the current fundamentals, trend strength, and market logic [1][4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The market is under pressure due to increased planned slaughter volume by group farms in August, passive hog retention by散户, and limited demand growth. The daily trading volume has been poor, making it difficult to absorb market supply. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, and with the significant premium of the futures price over the warehouse receipt cost, the industry's willingness to deliver has increased. Attention should be paid to the price convergence. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end contracts, resulting in a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, with the spread structure maintaining a reverse spread. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,000 yuan/ton and 14,500 yuan/ton respectively [4] Group 4: Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 13,930 yuan/ton, Sichuan's is 13,550 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's is 15,190 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year) [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of hog2509, hog2511, and hog2601 are 13,870 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton year - on - year), 13,900 yuan/ton (down 145 yuan/ton year - on - year), and 14,130 yuan/ton (down 165 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For hog2509, the trading volume is 5,772 lots (down 4,063 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 16,609 lots (down 2,018 lots from the previous day). For hog2511, the trading volume is 34,419 lots (down 13,089 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 64,710 lots (down 1,520 lots from the previous day). For hog2601, the trading volume is 15,747 lots (down 2,368 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 46,213 lots (up 437 lots from the previous day) [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of hog2509, hog2511, and hog2601 are 60 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton year - on - year), 30 yuan/ton (up 145 yuan/ton year - on - year), and - 200 yuan/ton (up 165 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively. The spread between hog9 - 11 is - 30 yuan/ton (up 65 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the spread between hog11 - 1 is - 230 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton year - on - year) [2] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report maintains a reverse spread strategy for the hog market [1] 2. Core View - In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increases, while retail farmers passively hold back hogs. With limited demand growth, the market faces significant pressure. The daily trading volume is poor, making it difficult to absorb market supply. As the September contract enters the pre - delivery month and the second position limit on the tenth trading day, the futures price is still at a large premium to the warehouse receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. Attention should be paid to the market of premium convergence. Recently, the macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, presenting a situation of weak current reality and strong future expectations. The spread structure maintains a reverse spread, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 13,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 15,290 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of contracts LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 are 13,930 yuan/ton, 14,180 yuan/ton, and 14,415 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 60 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of contracts LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 are 8,931 lots, 34,996 lots, and 12,459 lots respectively, with changes of - 1,234 lots, + 287 lots, and + 830 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 26,443 lots, 60,194 lots, and 44,010 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,287 lots, + 596 lots, and + 853 lots compared to the previous day [2] - **Spreads**: The basis of contracts LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 are - 50 yuan/ton, - 300 yuan/ton, and - 535 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 160 yuan/ton, - 180 yuan/ton, and - 120 yuan/ton. The spreads between LH2509 and LH2511, and between LH2511 and LH2601 are - 250 yuan/ton and - 235 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 20 yuan/ton and + 60 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view on the market. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3] 3.3 Market Logic - In August, the market is under pressure due to increased supply and limited demand. The September contract's entry into the pre - delivery month and the large premium to the warehouse receipt cost increase the industry's delivery willingness. The macro sentiment supports far - end contracts, resulting in a reverse spread structure [4]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume reduction and price increase fell short of expectations. Retailers and second - fattening groups are panicked. The planned slaughter volume of groups in August is increasing, while demand growth is limited, leading to significant market pressure. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, with the futures price still at a large premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. It is expected to operate weakly. Recently, the macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Henan's spot price is 14,180 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50; Sichuan's is 13,500 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 100; Guangdong's is 15,540 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change. For futures, the prices of contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 are 13,885 yuan/ton (down 55 year - on - year), 13,880 yuan/ton (down 25 year - on - year), and 14,170 yuan/ton (down 15 year - on - year) respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 are 13,732 hands (down 9,396 from the previous day), 16,849 hands (down 1,854 from the previous day), and 6,879 hands (down 4,350 from the previous day) respectively. The open interests are 35,710 hands (down 2,540 from the previous day), 55,042 hands (up 2,723 from the previous day), and 40,487 hands (down 21 from the previous day) respectively [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 are 295 yuan/ton (up 105 year - on - year), 300 yuan/ton (up 75 year - on - year), and 10 yuan/ton (up 65 year - on - year) respectively. The spreads between contracts 9 - 11 and 11 - 1 are 5 yuan/ton (down 30 year - on - year) and - 290 yuan/ton (down 10 year - on - year) respectively [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3] 3. Market Logic - The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume reduction and price increase fell short of expectations. Retailers and second - fattening groups are panicked. The planned slaughter volume of groups in August is increasing, while demand growth is limited, leading to significant market pressure. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, with the futures price still at a large premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. It is expected to operate weakly. Recently, the macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The live hog market maintains a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The market is under pressure in the short term, with the September contract expected to be weak, while the macro sentiment provides strong support for the long - term. The spread structure has switched to a reverse spread, and investors should pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: Henan spot price is 14,130 yuan/ton (down 300 yuan/ton year - on - year), Sichuan spot price is 13,600 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year), and Guangdong spot price is 15,540 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan/ton year - on - year). For futures, the price of Live Hog 2509 is 13,940 yuan/ton (down 115 yuan/ton year - on - year), Live Hog 2511 is 13,905 yuan/ton (up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year), and Live Hog 2601 is 14,185 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton year - on - year) [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Live Hog 2509 is 23,128 lots (down 8,228 lots from the previous day), with an open interest of 38,250 lots (down 2,721 lots from the previous day); Live Hog 2511 has a trading volume of 18,703 lots (down 5,958 lots from the previous day) and an open interest of 52,319 lots (up 1,115 lots from the previous day); Live Hog 2601 has a trading volume of 11,229 lots (down 2,530 lots from the previous day) and an open interest of 40,508 lots (up 113 lots from the previous day) [3]. - **Spreads**: The basis of Live Hog 2509 is 190 yuan/ton (down 185 yuan/ton year - on - year), Live Hog 2511 is 225 yuan/ton (down 355 yuan/ton year - on - year), and Live Hog 2601 is - 55 yuan/ton (down 305 yuan/ton year - on - year). The spread between Live Hog 9 - 11 is 35 yuan/ton (down 170 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the spread between Live Hog 11 - 1 is - 280 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year) [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4]. 3.3 Market Logic - The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume - reduction and price - pulling efforts were less than expected. Retailers and second - fattening groups are panicked. The group's planned slaughter volume in August is increasing, while demand growth is limited, putting pressure on the market. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, and the futures price is significantly higher than the warehouse - receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. It is expected to be weak. The macro sentiment strongly supports the long - term, resulting in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The spread structure has switched to a reverse spread. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The spot price of live pigs has dropped rapidly due to limited downstream digestion capacity during the off - season of consumption, and the market's expectation of price increases from late July to early August may lead to more concentrated slaughtering and continued weak operation of the spot market. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 13,930 yuan/ton (a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton), in Sichuan is 13,500 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year), and in Guangdong is 15,440 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year) [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of the live pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 14,075 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 75 yuan/ton), 14,105 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton), and 14,390 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 10 yuan/ton) respectively [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live pig 2509 contract is 33,288 lots (an increase of 1463 lots compared to the previous day), with an open interest of 53,049 lots (a decrease of 1758 lots compared to the previous day); the trading volume of the 2511 contract is 12,422 lots (a decrease of 1590 lots), with an open interest of 49,996 lots (an increase of 1377 lots); the trading volume of the 2601 contract is 14,003 lots (a decrease of 30 lots), with an open interest of 41,852 lots (a decrease of 951 lots) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of the live pig 2509 contract is - 145 yuan/ton (a year - on - year increase of 125 yuan/ton) [1]. Market Logic - Group companies are actively reducing the weight of pigs recently. Due to the off - season of consumption and limited downstream digestion capacity, the spot price has dropped rapidly, indicating that the previous price increase relied more on inventory - building sentiment. The market's expectation of price increases from late July to early August may lead to more concentrated slaughtering and continued weak operation of the spot market. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, resulting in a weak reality and strong expectation situation, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view. A value of 0 indicates a neutral view [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The current stage of the market has entered the expected trading phase. The expected state reserve purchase has led to the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - end sentiment. The spot price has continued to strengthen, and the futures market has been repairing the basis. However, the futures price has offered hedging profits, leading to increased market speculation. The large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, and the subsequent performance of the spot market should be monitored. The impact path of this round of inventory reduction is more complex and requires comprehensive consideration of factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and small - scale farmer's pig holding behavior. Traders should pay attention to setting stop - profit and stop - loss levels. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: The Henan spot price is 15,180 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 14,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 17,440 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [2] - **Futures Price**: The price of the live hog 2509 contract is 14,305 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2511 contract is 13,720 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2601 contract is 13,765 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the 2509 contract is 41,727 lots, down 5,350 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 77,179 lots, down 2,473 lots from the previous day; the 2511 contract has a trading volume of 15,717 lots, up 5,114 lots, and an open interest of 41,620 lots, down 480 lots; the 2601 contract has a trading volume of 7,702 lots, up 1,180 lots, and an open interest of 18,681 lots, up 889 lots [2] - **Spread**: The basis of the 2509 contract is 875 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2511 contract's basis is 1,460 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2601 contract's basis is 1,415 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton year - on - year. The 9 - 11 spread is 585 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 11 - 1 spread is - 45 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of -2 indicates the most bearish sentiment, and 2 indicates the most bullish sentiment [3] 3.3 Market Logic - The market has entered the expected trading phase. The expected state reserve purchase and the July - August bullish expectation have influenced the market. The large number of piglets sold in the first quarter will affect the supply in July. The inventory reduction path is complex, and the subsequent spot performance needs to be observed. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are provided [4]