Workflow
近期偏误
icon
Search documents
AI眼中的2025年市场:人类投资者太悲观,自认为已进化,但行为模式依旧
硬AI· 2025-11-06 12:41
Core Insights - The core conclusion of the Deutsche Bank report is that human investors are trapped in a cognitive bias, believing they have evolved in a new investment era, while their behaviors are still dominated by traditional psychological traps [2][3][6] Group 1: Investor Behavior - AI analysis indicates that investors are predominantly in a state of "irrationality" throughout 2025, with "anxiety" being the dominant emotion [3][9] - The report highlights that the most extreme irrationality occurs at market lows, specifically in April 2025, where the strategy of contrarian investing proves to be correct [4][10] - AI identified a "euphoria" signal only during the peak of fear in April and May, suggesting that this was an optimal buying opportunity as investors rushed to cover positions after panic selling [5][10] Group 2: Emotional Dynamics - The report reveals a paradox where "greed" disappears during market rebounds, despite rising stock prices, indicating a typical retail investor mindset of "fear of missing out" [10][12] - AI-generated emotional indices show that human investors are often more pessimistic than the AI's assessments, particularly during market downturns [17][19] - The emotional index generated by AI rebounds faster than the stock market itself, suggesting that maintaining composure during short-term market shocks is crucial for investors [19] Group 3: Cognitive Biases - The two main cognitive biases affecting investors are "recency bias" and "availability heuristic," leading them to make decisions based on recent information rather than a comprehensive analysis [14][16] - The report categorizes the psychological evolution of investors into three phases, yet emphasizes that their reactions remain driven by short-term events [14][16] - AI analysis indicates that investors' fears do not align with actual market drivers, as seen in the frequent mention of the labor market without it being a top concern [16]