Core Insights - The core conclusion of the Deutsche Bank report is that human investors are trapped in a cognitive bias, believing they have evolved in a new investment era, while their behaviors are still dominated by traditional psychological traps [2][3][6] Group 1: Investor Behavior - AI analysis indicates that investors are predominantly in a state of "irrationality" throughout 2025, with "anxiety" being the dominant emotion [3][9] - The report highlights that the most extreme irrationality occurs at market lows, specifically in April 2025, where the strategy of contrarian investing proves to be correct [4][10] - AI identified a "euphoria" signal only during the peak of fear in April and May, suggesting that this was an optimal buying opportunity as investors rushed to cover positions after panic selling [5][10] Group 2: Emotional Dynamics - The report reveals a paradox where "greed" disappears during market rebounds, despite rising stock prices, indicating a typical retail investor mindset of "fear of missing out" [10][12] - AI-generated emotional indices show that human investors are often more pessimistic than the AI's assessments, particularly during market downturns [17][19] - The emotional index generated by AI rebounds faster than the stock market itself, suggesting that maintaining composure during short-term market shocks is crucial for investors [19] Group 3: Cognitive Biases - The two main cognitive biases affecting investors are "recency bias" and "availability heuristic," leading them to make decisions based on recent information rather than a comprehensive analysis [14][16] - The report categorizes the psychological evolution of investors into three phases, yet emphasizes that their reactions remain driven by short-term events [14][16] - AI analysis indicates that investors' fears do not align with actual market drivers, as seen in the frequent mention of the labor market without it being a top concern [16]

Core Insights - The core conclusion of the Deutsche Bank report is that human investors are overly pessimistic and their investment behaviors are driven by irrationality, emotional responses, and cognitive biases, despite their belief in having evolved into a new investment era [2][6]. Group 1: Market Sentiment Analysis - The AI system dbLumina identified that investors exhibited extreme irrationality during market lows, particularly in April 2025, where fear dominated their actions [3][4]. - A significant finding was that "euphoria" was only detected during the peak of fear in April and May, serving as a perfect buy signal as investors rushed to cover positions after panic selling [5][9]. - Throughout 2025, the prevailing emotion among investors was "anxiety," which persisted regardless of market fluctuations [4][9]. Group 2: Cognitive Biases and Behavioral Patterns - The report highlights that investors are still influenced by outdated cognitive biases such as "recency bias" and "availability heuristic," indicating that their decision-making is based on recent news and emotions rather than rational analysis [6][11]. - The emotional index generated by AI was consistently more optimistic than that of human investors, particularly during market downturns, suggesting that AI can see through short-term panic [7][13]. - The analysis categorized investor psychology into three phases throughout the year, revealing a reactive behavior driven by short-term events rather than a strategic approach [11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Recommendations - The report emphasizes that selling during short-term market declines was a detrimental strategy for investors in 2025, advocating for a more composed approach to market fluctuations [15]. - The findings suggest that the best buying opportunities arise during periods of extreme fear, as indicated by the "euphoria" signal detected by AI [5][9].

Core Insights - The report from Deutsche Bank highlights that human investors are overly pessimistic and exhibit irrational, emotional, and cognitive biases in their investment behaviors, despite believing they have evolved in a "new investment world" [1][5] Group 1: Market Sentiment Analysis - Deutsche Bank's AI system, dbLumina, analyzed daily market comments from January to October 2025, quantifying market psychology through a "Rational/Fear Index" ranging from -1.00 to +1.00, where negative scores indicate excessive fear and reaction to external negative factors [1] - The analysis revealed that investors were in a "non-rational" state for most of 2025, with the index hitting its lowest point in April during a panic sell-off, while the S&P 500 rebounded by 23% from its March low, validating the AI's assessment [1] Group 2: Emotional Trends - A notable trend identified was that investors' rationality improved as market uncertainty decreased, suggesting that they only exhibit rational behavior in calm conditions, reverting to fear and overreaction during uncertainty [2] - The dominant emotion throughout the year was "anxiety," persisting regardless of market movements, with "euphoria" only appearing once during the most severe sell-off in April and May, indicating a potential buying opportunity [4] Group 3: Cognitive Biases - The report emphasizes that investors are driven by short-term events, with the prevalent cognitive biases being "recency bias" and "availability heuristic," leading to decisions based on recent information rather than a comprehensive analysis [7] - AI analysis categorized the evolution of investor psychology into three phases: heightened sensitivity to geopolitical and interest rate issues at the beginning of the year, increased resilience to trade wars mid-year, and normalization of uncertainty acceptance later, yet still driven by short-term reactions [7] Group 4: AI vs. Human Sentiment - AI identified that investor fears do not align with actual market drivers, as evidenced by the frequent mention of the labor market, which did not rank among the top three investor fears [8] - Throughout 2025, AI's sentiment index remained more optimistic than that of human investors, particularly during the tumultuous period in April, indicating that AI can recover from short-term negative events more swiftly [8]