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光大期货软商品日报-20250828
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 06:04
Group 1: Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [1] - Sugar: Neutral with a slightly bearish bias [1] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Wednesday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.09% to 66.65 cents per pound, and CF601 decreased 0.32% to 14,075 yuan per ton. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the U.S. weather and drought area changes should be monitored. In the domestic market, sentiment fluctuated, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures price moved lower. After the issuance of 200,000 tons of processing trade import quotas, inventory concerns eased. New cotton supply-demand contradictions are not significant, but there will be pressure from high yields and support from "scrambling to buy" expectations. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and macro and weather changes should be watched [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's Conab lowered the 2025/26 sugar production forecast by 3.1% to 44.5 million tons. Domestic sugar spot prices were lowered, and the futures price continued to decline with reduced positions. The double - festival stocking provides limited support, and future import pressure will trouble the market. A slightly bearish and fluctuating view is maintained, and the support at the previous low will be tested. Attention should be paid to the August import data [1]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 45, unchanged; the main contract basis was 1,267, up 33. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,249 yuan per ton, up 14 yuan, and the national price was 15,342 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 32, down 3; the main contract basis was 365, up 2. The Nanning spot price was 5,920 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan, and the Liuzhou price was 5,985 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On August 27, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 6,859, down 118, with 2 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data were provided [3]. - **Sugar**: On August 27, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou decreased. The sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 14,906, down 409, with 1 valid forecast [3][4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: Charts show the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index, with data from 2021 - 2025 [6][9][11]. - **Sugar**: Charts show the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, with data from 2021 - 2025 [14][17]