1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the main contract of methanol futures completed the roll - over. As Iranian plants gradually shut down for maintenance, methanol prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. However, port inventories were still at a historically high level, limiting the rebound space. The domestic methanol production reached a new high, and the inventory in the production areas was seasonally accumulating. The demand from the new Shandong Lianhong olefin plant would boost the coastal methanol demand. Attention should be paid to the realization of import reduction expectations and the pre - holiday stocking of domestic downstream industries in January [2][4][54] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In December, the main contract of methanol futures, MA605, first fell and then rose. It hit a low of 2,072 yuan/ton in the middle of the month and fluctuated around 2,150 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of about 2.5%. The spot price in Taicang increased by about 1.3% to 2,140 yuan/ton, while the Inner Mongolia market price dropped by about 4.5% to 1,905 yuan/ton. The port basis strengthened, and the inland basis weakened by about 175 yuan. The arbitrage window between production and sales areas opened. In the international market, European and American methanol prices continued to decline, while prices in China's main port and Southeast Asia stabilized [6][8][12] 3.2 Methanol Supply - Demand Analysis - **Domestic Production**: The national methanol operating rate reached a historical high. The overall domestic methanol plant operating rate was 77.63% at the end of the month, with the northwest region at 89.01%. The coal - based plant operating rate reached a new high, and the southwest natural - gas - based plants entered winter maintenance. The domestic methanol production in December was about 7.5 million tons, a 12% increase from the previous month, and the average monthly production in 2025 increased by 8.6% compared to last year. The inventory of inland representative enterprises increased by 5% compared to the end of November [15][16] - **Port Inventory**: In November, China's methanol imports were 1.4176 million tons, a 12% month - on - month decrease, and the average monthly import in 2025 was 1.1543 million tons, a 2.6% increase from last year. The re - export volume increased. By the end of December, coastal methanol inventories decreased by about 360,000 tons from the annual high in November to 1.3185 million tons. Although the inventory decreased, it was still at a historically high level. The actual unloading of imported ships was delayed, and downstream demand was stable. It was expected that the import volume in December would remain high, and the reduction might be reflected in the first quarter of next year [20][21][22] - **Industrial Chain**: - **International Natural Gas**: International natural gas prices first rose and then fell in December. The international methanol production cost once exceeded 2,000 yuan/ton, and the import profit declined. - **Coal - Based Production**: Coal prices increased in October, and the theoretical cost of coal - based methanol in the northwest was around 2,000 yuan/ton. The theoretical cash flow of coal - based methanol approached the cost line, reducing the production enthusiasm. - **Downstream Demand**: In December, the overall downstream operating rate of methanol remained high, with a weighted average of about 78.34%. The traditional downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.7 percentage points. The average operating rate of methanol - to - olefin plants decreased slightly. The 1.3 - million - ton/year methanol - to - olefin plant of Shandong Lianhong was successfully commissioned, which would significantly increase the coastal methanol demand [30][32][36] 3.3 Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - On the supply side, the domestic methanol production remained high, and the international methanol production capacity utilization rate decreased. The import volume in December was expected to remain high, and the reduction might occur in the first quarter of next year. On the demand side, the new Shandong Lianhong plant would boost the coastal methanol demand. In January, attention should be paid to the realization of import reduction expectations and the pre - holiday stocking of domestic downstream industries [54]