Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Elon Musk to establish a "American Party" has sparked significant discussion regarding the potential for a third political party in the United States, challenging the long-standing two-party system [1][3][7]. Historical Context - The U.S. has predominantly operated under a two-party system for over 200 years, with third-party candidates historically failing to gain substantial power [3][4]. - The last notable success of a third-party candidate was in 1968, and the most successful third-party candidate was Theodore Roosevelt in 1912, who garnered approximately 27% of the popular vote but only 88 electoral votes [4][5]. Structural Challenges - The electoral system in the U.S. favors a two-party structure due to the winner-takes-all principle and the electoral college system, making it difficult for third parties to compete effectively [5][6]. - The Democratic and Republican parties have historically adapted to maintain their dominance, often collaborating to suppress potential threats from third parties [6][11]. Public Sentiment - A significant portion of the American public, approximately 58%, believes that a third major party is needed, indicating dissatisfaction with the current two-party representation [7][8]. - Political polarization is a driving factor for the desire to establish a third party, as the binary system fosters extreme partisanship and identity politics [8][9]. Potential Strategies for Success - Experts suggest that for Musk's "American Party" to succeed, it should focus on swing states and grassroots mobilization while avoiding the pitfalls of previous third parties that failed to maintain visibility [13][14]. - Learning from successful political movements, such as the Tea Party, which reshaped the Republican Party from within, may provide a more viable path for Musk's initiative [11][14]. Ideological Focus - The "American Party" is expected to align ideologically closer to the right, with suggestions for policies that resonate with voters' concerns, such as trade, fiscal responsibility, and technological advancement [10][14]. - The current political landscape presents an opportunity for a new party to address issues that both major parties have overlooked, particularly in trade and government spending [12][14].

来源：新华社 "美国党"将于何时完成注册程序仍不得而知，不少美国主流媒体对其政治前景保持谨慎怀疑态 度。《华盛顿邮报》文章分析了马斯克成立新党所面临的多重挑战，认为"美国党"或任何新成 立政党短期内难以撼动美国沿袭已久的政治架构。 选举机制"拦路虎" 这篇文章首先指出，美国"赢者通吃"的选举人团制度对于两大主流政党之外的"第三党"并不友 好。 美国乔治敦大学的政治学教授汉斯·诺埃尔说，美国现行选举机制下，很难出现"多个第三方政 党超级成功"的局面，因为美国体系下，党派无法通过赢得"20%或30%"的选民票，进而在议会 中分得一些议席，并借此"逐步壮大"。 曾出任民主党顾问的美国杜克大学桑福德公共政策学院教授马克·麦科克尔说，联邦和州级选举 法规对于新政党注册以及第三方政党候选人的竞选资格认证也各有规定，包括候选人居住地、 一定数量的选民签字请愿等要求。很多第三方政党候选人都被选民签字请愿的要求"绊倒"。不 过，"他（马斯克）或许有足够的钱能做成这件事"。 麦科克尔指出，2024年总统选举中，没有任何有分量的第三方政党候选人得以出现在全美50个 州的选票上。 美国总统选举所采用的选举人团制度并非一人一票的直接选 ...