"美国党"的成立，意味着马斯克开始从企业家变成了"政治家"。这个新的政党不仅将会挑战特朗普的"共和党"，也把民主 党当成了对手。因为在马斯克看来，不管是共和党还是民主党都是一丘之貉。但是美国的目前的政治制度欢迎马斯克， 欢迎"美国党"么？其实美国基本没有孕育新党派的条件。因为美国的投票制度是"赢家通吃"原则。如果说其他国家的政党 可以通过创建一个小党，然后拿到20%的席位，然后逐渐发展壮大起来，甚至到联合执政，那么美国就必须拥有决定性 的胜利，才可能拥有话语权。 据直新闻报道，美国亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克在社交媒体上发布消息："今天，'美国党'的成立还给你们自由。"马斯克是在对 他所发一条贴文的回复中作出上述表述的。"支持和反对比例为2:1，表明你们想要一个新政党，你们也会有个新政 党。"马斯克写道，美国正"因浪费和贪污而破产"。而在这条宣布成立"美国党"的帖子下，有网友问他的新政党是否会参 加2026年中期选举或2028年的总统选举时，马斯克回复称：明年！ 马斯克宣布"美国党"的时间令人深思，正是在特朗普的"大而美"法案通过之后。这无形是对特朗普的一个挑衅。众所周 知，特朗普的"大而美"法案在许多人看来是个典型 ...

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk's proposal to establish a new political party in the U.S. aims to liberate citizens from the existing two-party system, which he claims is leading the country to bankruptcy due to waste and corruption [1][4]. Group 1: Political Context - The U.S. election system is characterized by an indirect election process where the president is elected by an electoral college rather than by direct popular vote [1][2]. - The electoral votes are allocated based on the population of each state, with a total of 538 electoral votes, including 3 from Washington D.C. [1]. - The "winner-takes-all" principle in U.S. elections means that the candidate with the majority of votes in a state receives all of that state's electoral votes, contrasting with proportional representation systems in some European countries [2]. Group 2: Historical Stability of Two-Party System - The two-party system has been stable for nearly 200 years, with the Democratic and Republican parties dominating due to their substantial campaign resources and experience [3]. - California, a Democratic stronghold, has the highest number of electoral votes at approximately 54, while Texas, a Republican stronghold, has about 40 electoral votes [3]. Group 3: Challenges for Third Parties - Third parties in the U.S., such as the Green Party and the Libertarian Party, often participate in elections to raise awareness rather than to win, with many candidates withdrawing early to increase their visibility [4]. - The political landscape is complicated by the two parties' ability to adapt their policies to attract voters, making it uncertain whether Musk's new party can effectively challenge the status quo [4]. Group 4: Impact on Tesla - Following Musk's announcement about forming a new party, Tesla's stock price dropped nearly 7%, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $68 billion [5]. - Analysts express concern that Musk's political activities could negatively impact Tesla's stock, with some suggesting that he should distance himself from politics to protect the company's interests [5]. - Recent legislative changes reducing tax incentives for electric vehicles may further affect Tesla's sales and the broader electric vehicle market [5]. Group 5: Internal Challenges - Musk's high compensation package, which could yield up to $56 billion in stock options if performance targets are met, has drawn criticism regarding the board's oversight [6]. - Analysts recommend implementing restrictions on Musk's political activities and setting boundaries for his tenure at Tesla to mitigate potential conflicts of interest [6]. - Musk's dissatisfaction with the two-party system raises questions about the feasibility and sincerity of his intentions to establish a new political party [6].

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk has announced the establishment of a new political party called the "American Party," aiming to participate in the upcoming midterm elections in the U.S. and secure minority seats in both the House and Senate [1] Historical Context of Third Parties in the U.S. - The U.S. has a long history of third parties, starting with the Anti-Masonic Party in 1831, which was the first third party in American politics [1][3] - The Anti-Masonic Party held its first national presidential candidate nomination convention in 1831, where William Wirt was nominated for the 1832 presidential election, receiving 8% of the popular vote in Vermont [3][4] - The Anti-Masonic Party lasted about ten years and influenced American politics by promoting anti-Masonic sentiments and establishing the practice of national conventions for presidential nominations [4] Emergence and Decline of Other Third Parties - Following the Anti-Masonic Party, other third parties emerged, such as the Know Nothing Party and the People's Party, with the Know Nothing Party gaining significant traction in the 1854 elections [5][6] - The People's Party, founded in 1891, opposed monopolies in banking and railroads and garnered over 1 million votes in the 1892 elections, but eventually declined after aligning with the Democratic Party in 1896 [6][7] Modern Third Parties - Contemporary third parties include the Independent Party, Reform Party, and Green Party, with the Reform Party being established by billionaire Ross Perot in 1995 after his independent presidential run in 1992 [8][9] - The Reform Party's influence has diminished in the 21st century, similar to other third parties that have historically struggled to maintain a lasting presence in U.S. politics [9]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Elon Musk to establish a "American Party" has sparked significant discussion regarding the potential for a third political party in the United States, challenging the long-standing two-party system [1][3][7]. Historical Context - The U.S. has predominantly operated under a two-party system for over 200 years, with third-party candidates historically failing to gain substantial power [3][4]. - The last notable success of a third-party candidate was in 1968, and the most successful third-party candidate was Theodore Roosevelt in 1912, who garnered approximately 27% of the popular vote but only 88 electoral votes [4][5]. Structural Challenges - The electoral system in the U.S. favors a two-party structure due to the winner-takes-all principle and the electoral college system, making it difficult for third parties to compete effectively [5][6]. - The Democratic and Republican parties have historically adapted to maintain their dominance, often collaborating to suppress potential threats from third parties [6][11]. Public Sentiment - A significant portion of the American public, approximately 58%, believes that a third major party is needed, indicating dissatisfaction with the current two-party representation [7][8]. - Political polarization is a driving factor for the desire to establish a third party, as the binary system fosters extreme partisanship and identity politics [8][9]. Potential Strategies for Success - Experts suggest that for Musk's "American Party" to succeed, it should focus on swing states and grassroots mobilization while avoiding the pitfalls of previous third parties that failed to maintain visibility [13][14]. - Learning from successful political movements, such as the Tea Party, which reshaped the Republican Party from within, may provide a more viable path for Musk's initiative [11][14]. Ideological Focus - The "American Party" is expected to align ideologically closer to the right, with suggestions for policies that resonate with voters' concerns, such as trade, fiscal responsibility, and technological advancement [10][14]. - The current political landscape presents an opportunity for a new party to address issues that both major parties have overlooked, particularly in trade and government spending [12][14].

以下文章来源于底线思维 ，作者周德宇 底线思维 . 观察者网时评专栏 本文来自微信公众号： 底线思维 （ID：dixiansiwei） ，作者：周德宇（匹兹堡大学政治学系博 士，中国人民大学历史学院博士后），题图来自：视觉中国 马斯克的"美国党"成立了。 目标很明确：反对特朗普的"大美丽法案" （One Big Beautiful Bill Act） ，再通过组建一个真正的 第三党来影响政治，号召支持者们摆脱两党体系： 当然，大家现在最大的疑问就是， 美国两党制根深蒂固，哪里是他一个局外人能撼动的？他连自己 建的"政府效率部"都搞不定，还指望他有这样的政治能力去建个政党？ 虽然这种一眼就能看明白的道理，对于马斯克这样自我极其膨胀的人不太适用，但马斯克也不是完全 没有考虑这些。所以他声称自己定的初步目标没有太高，并不想一步到位取代现有政党， 而是要聚 焦于两三个参议员席位选区和十个左右的众议院选区，做能够决定政策的关键少数： 其实美国历史上的第三党并不少见，赢得了一定国会席位或者总统选举人票的党派也可以数出好几 个。 比如，最早的"美国党" （American Party） ，又叫"无知党" （Know Not ...

美国党真能挑战美国两党制吗？分析认为， 想要创建一个能挑战美国"两党制"的第三党并不容易， 可能需要数年时间来解决法律和经济层面的困难。 有资深选举律师表示， 美国各州对想要参选的新政党的参选资格认定并不相同。 以加州为 例，若一个新政党想出现在该州的选票上，就必须吸纳并维持该州至少0.33%的选民成为该党 成员，或收集110万名选民的签名。而想要获得国家层面的认可，新政党还需要获得联邦选举 委员会的认可，这几乎肯定会遭到民主党和共和党的强烈反对。除了时间和法律问题，竞选资 金的筹备也是一大难题。美国前联邦选举委员会主席李·古德曼表示， 马斯克可能需要数千名 捐款人共同来资助他的政党。 事实上，除了民主党和共和党这两大党，美国也有包括绿党、自由党在内的政党，但后两者根 本无法撼动两大党的地位。 （本文来源： 央视网 ） ...

来源：中新网 据中新网综合美媒报道，在美国总统特朗普4日签署"大而美"法案成为法律的几个小时前，特 朗普的前盟友、特斯拉创始人马斯克在社交媒体上进行了一项关于成立第三党的调查。 据报道，马斯克4日在社交媒体上写道："独立日是问你是否想摆脱两党制的最佳时机！我们 应该创建美国党吗？" 马斯克表示，一个新政党可以"专注于2或3个参议院席位和8到10个众议院选区"，并认为"这 足以对有争议的法律做出决定性投票"。 马斯克的支持者们很快加入了讨论，其中一人评论道："埃隆创办第三党与特斯拉和SpaceX 非常相似。成功的可能性很小，但如果成功，它将彻底改变游戏规则。" 马斯克转发了该用户的评论，并配上了"100"的表情符号和一面美国国旗， 似乎表示同意。 围绕"大而美"法案， 特朗普与马斯克 爆发了一系列冲突。该法案内容涵盖数万亿美元规模的 减税举措，同时大幅增加移民执法支出，并削减对医疗补助、太阳能、风能及电动车项目的联 邦资助。 这些政策变化对马斯克旗下严重依赖清洁能源补贴的产业构成直接冲击。 "所有州的州法律都偏向两大政党，并尽可能地为第三个政党的出现制造障碍。"卡佩尔说。 卡佩尔认为， 马斯克几乎肯定会面临民主 ...

当地时间7月1日，美国国会参议院投票通过"大而美"税收与支出法案。当日早些时候，美国企业家马斯 克在其掌管的社交媒体平台X上发帖狠批该法案，并表示如果法案通过，第二天就会成立"美国党"。 马斯克说要建"美国党"，是认真的吗？尽管几十年来美国存在着大量除共和党、民主党以外的大量小党 派，但从未有真正意义上取得政治成功的"第三党"。拥有巨大影响力的马斯克如果建党，他会成功吗？ 马斯克的真实目标到底是什么？ 马斯克的"美国党"可能长啥样？ 据美联社2日报道，马斯克曾多次提出，美国需要一个新政党来体现共和党没能代表的观点。本周一， 马斯克转发了上月他在X平台上发起的一项投票，投票询问美国是否需要"一个真正代表中间80%民众的 政党？"投票当天，马斯克公布称有"80%的人同意"建立新政党，他随后将政党命名为"美国党"。 报道分析认为，尽管马斯克在互联网上已展现出毋庸置疑的动员能力，他在X平台上的发文曾多次引发 金融市场剧烈波动，他的追随者也忠诚、高调、有影响力，但政治组织是另一回事。它需要地面行动、 结盟合作、稳定的联盟关系，而这些不是靠表情包或直播就能搭建的。过去一些在网络上走红的政治运 动往难以将线上支持转化为线下 ...