这次美国政府的"关门"并不是因为债务危机、战争或政权更替，而是源自于美国国内的政治分歧。问题的根源是美国国会未能批准新的财政预算，导致政府 运转停滞。简单来说，就是"你们公司发不了工资了，80万名联邦员工只能无休止地待在家里。" 之所以没能通过预算案，是因为民主党和共和党在医疗补贴方面产生了重大分歧。尽管共和党在参议院占据多数席位，但任何财政拨款案都需要至少60票才 能通过程序障碍，而民主党拒绝投支持票，最终导致预算案搁置。可以想象，就像公司账上有资金，但股东们意见不合，董事长决定冻结资金，直到问题解 决，员工就只能待命，工资也拿不到。 在中国人眼中，这种"关门"似乎是新鲜事，但其实在美国，这并不是第一次。过去因为两党斗争，美国政府已经停摆过二十多次。最近一次发生在2018年， 当时特朗普总统提出的修建边境墙计划遭到民主党强烈反对，最终也导致了政府关门。 那么，这次"关门"会带来哪些影响呢？ 今天早晨一觉醒来，历史再次被写下——美国政府正式"关门"了！这并非是某种经济危机或战争引起的，而是因为美国的政治斗争导致的。那么，究竟发生 了什么？这种情况会带来哪些影响，特别是对中国有何影响？ 第三，对美国政府形象的影 ...

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk has announced the establishment of a new political party called the "American Party," aiming to participate in the upcoming midterm elections in the U.S. and secure minority seats in both the House and Senate [1] Historical Context of Third Parties in the U.S. - The U.S. has a long history of third parties, starting with the Anti-Masonic Party in 1831, which was the first third party in American politics [1][3] - The Anti-Masonic Party held its first national presidential candidate nomination convention in 1831, where William Wirt was nominated for the 1832 presidential election, receiving 8% of the popular vote in Vermont [3][4] - The Anti-Masonic Party lasted about ten years and influenced American politics by promoting anti-Masonic sentiments and establishing the practice of national conventions for presidential nominations [4] Emergence and Decline of Other Third Parties - Following the Anti-Masonic Party, other third parties emerged, such as the Know Nothing Party and the People's Party, with the Know Nothing Party gaining significant traction in the 1854 elections [5][6] - The People's Party, founded in 1891, opposed monopolies in banking and railroads and garnered over 1 million votes in the 1892 elections, but eventually declined after aligning with the Democratic Party in 1896 [6][7] Modern Third Parties - Contemporary third parties include the Independent Party, Reform Party, and Green Party, with the Reform Party being established by billionaire Ross Perot in 1995 after his independent presidential run in 1992 [8][9] - The Reform Party's influence has diminished in the 21st century, similar to other third parties that have historically struggled to maintain a lasting presence in U.S. politics [9]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Elon Musk to establish a "American Party" has sparked significant discussion regarding the potential for a third political party in the United States, challenging the long-standing two-party system [1][3][7]. Historical Context - The U.S. has predominantly operated under a two-party system for over 200 years, with third-party candidates historically failing to gain substantial power [3][4]. - The last notable success of a third-party candidate was in 1968, and the most successful third-party candidate was Theodore Roosevelt in 1912, who garnered approximately 27% of the popular vote but only 88 electoral votes [4][5]. Structural Challenges - The electoral system in the U.S. favors a two-party structure due to the winner-takes-all principle and the electoral college system, making it difficult for third parties to compete effectively [5][6]. - The Democratic and Republican parties have historically adapted to maintain their dominance, often collaborating to suppress potential threats from third parties [6][11]. Public Sentiment - A significant portion of the American public, approximately 58%, believes that a third major party is needed, indicating dissatisfaction with the current two-party representation [7][8]. - Political polarization is a driving factor for the desire to establish a third party, as the binary system fosters extreme partisanship and identity politics [8][9]. Potential Strategies for Success - Experts suggest that for Musk's "American Party" to succeed, it should focus on swing states and grassroots mobilization while avoiding the pitfalls of previous third parties that failed to maintain visibility [13][14]. - Learning from successful political movements, such as the Tea Party, which reshaped the Republican Party from within, may provide a more viable path for Musk's initiative [11][14]. Ideological Focus - The "American Party" is expected to align ideologically closer to the right, with suggestions for policies that resonate with voters' concerns, such as trade, fiscal responsibility, and technological advancement [10][14]. - The current political landscape presents an opportunity for a new party to address issues that both major parties have overlooked, particularly in trade and government spending [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk has established the "American Party" with the clear goal of opposing Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" and creating a genuine third party to influence politics, encouraging supporters to break free from the two-party system [3][4]. Group 1: Political Landscape and Challenges - The entrenched two-party system in the U.S. poses significant challenges for Musk, as many doubt his ability to disrupt this established order [4][12]. - Musk's initial targets are modest, aiming for a few Senate and House seats that could sway policy decisions, especially in a closely divided Congress [6][12]. - Historical attempts at third parties in the U.S. have often ended in failure, with many such parties dissolving or merging back into the two main parties after brief successes [7][10][11]. Group 2: Historical Context of Third Parties - The original "American Party," known as the "Know Nothing Party," emerged in the 1840s, gaining significant political traction before fading away [9][10]. - The "American Independent Party," founded in 1969 by George Wallace, aimed to disrupt the political landscape but ultimately failed to maintain influence [10][11]. - The historical pattern shows that third parties often achieve temporary success but struggle to sustain their presence in the long term [11][12]. Group 3: Structural and Financial Barriers - The "winner-takes-all" electoral system in the U.S. inherently favors two parties, making it difficult for third parties to gain traction [12][13]. - Financial resources are crucial, and Musk's substantial investment of $290 million for the 2024 election may not be sufficient compared to the financial demands of national campaigns [12][13]. - The existing political infrastructure and grassroots organizations of the two main parties create formidable barriers for any new party attempting to establish itself [12][13]. Group 4: Current Political Dynamics - Despite dissatisfaction with the two-party system, new political movements often find their ideas absorbed by the existing parties, as seen with Trump's rise within the Republican Party [14][15]. - Musk's lack of clear, appealing political proposals may hinder his ability to attract both voters and politicians from the established parties [15]. - Previous political investments by Musk, such as funding a judicial election in Wisconsin, resulted in failure, indicating challenges in translating financial resources into political influence [15].

马斯克的"美国党"成立了。 目标很明确：反对特朗普的"大美丽法案"（One Big Beautiful Bill Act），再通过组建一个真正的第三党来影响政治，号召支持者们 摆脱两党体系： 当然，大家现在最大的疑问就是，美国两党制根深蒂固，哪里是他一个局外人能撼动的？他连自己建的"政府效率部"都搞不定，还 指望他有这样的政治能力去建个政党？ 虽然这种一眼就能看明白的道理，对于马斯克这样自我极其膨胀的人不太适用，但马斯克也不是完全没有考虑这些。所以他声称自 己定的初步目标没有太高，并不想一步到位取代现有政党，而是要聚焦于两三个参议员席位选区和十个左右的众议院选区，做能够 决定政策的关键少数： 不过如果我们回顾美国第三党的历史，就会发现怀有马斯克这种想法的人可不算少数，甚至"美国党"（American Party）这个名字 都已经不新鲜了。那么曾经那些"美国党"都去了哪里，美国为什么还是两党制呢？ 其实美国历史上的第三党并不少见，赢得了一定国会席位或者总统选举人票的党派也可以数出好几个。 比如，最早的"美国党"（American Party），又叫"无知党"（Know Nothing Party），成立于19世 ...

Group 1 - Elon Musk announced the formation of a new political party called "America Party" in response to Trump's tax and spending bill, which he claims could lead the nation to bankruptcy [1] - Trump criticized the idea of a third party, stating that the U.S. is fundamentally a two-party system and that third parties have historically not succeeded [1][2] - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggested that the boards of Tesla and SpaceX may prefer Musk to focus on business rather than political activities [1] Group 2 - Musk's move to establish a third party is seen as a direct challenge to Trump, with whom he previously had a close relationship [2] - The tax and spending bill, which includes significant tax cuts and increased defense spending, has been passed by Congress, but critics argue it will worsen the federal deficit [2] - Trump's response to Musk's criticism included a threat to revoke existing government contracts and subsidies for Tesla and SpaceX [2] Group 3 - James Fishback, a businessman and Trump ally, expressed strong opposition to Musk's political ambitions, suggesting it conflicts with his role as CEO of Tesla [3] - Fishback has delayed the launch of a Tesla-focused ETF due to concerns over Musk's focus on the new party [3] - Analysts suggest that Tesla's board may need to intervene and discuss Musk's role if he increasingly dedicates time to the new political party [3]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk is seriously considering the establishment of a new political party called the "American Party," aiming to disrupt the current two-party system in the U.S. and gain significant seats in the upcoming midterm elections [1][2][3]. Group 1: Political Strategy and Goals - Musk plans to focus on winning 2 to 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 House seats in the 2024 midterm elections, which he believes could influence key legislative votes [1][2]. - He draws parallels to historical military strategies, emphasizing a concentrated effort to achieve political goals rather than a broad approach [2]. - A recent poll on Musk's platform showed that 65.4% of over 1.24 million participants support the formation of the "American Party," indicating a desire for a new political option [1][2]. Group 2: Reactions and Concerns - Some conservative commentators express concern that the "American Party" could siphon votes from the Republican Party, potentially aiding Democratic candidates [2][3]. - Investors, including the CEO of Azoria Partners, have criticized Musk's political ambitions, arguing that they undermine shareholder confidence in his companies, particularly Tesla [2][3]. - Support for Musk's initiative includes unexpected endorsements from billionaires like Mark Cuban and Anthony Scaramucci, who are aligned with Democratic candidates [3]. Group 3: Challenges and Legal Considerations - Establishing a new political party in the U.S. involves complex legal requirements, with varying rules across states that could hinder the "American Party's" ability to appear on ballots [4]. - Experts suggest that while Musk may have the resources to initiate a new party, the process of creating a viable national political entity could take years and face significant opposition from established parties [4][5]. - A recent survey indicates that about 40% of Americans support the idea of a new party challenging the existing political landscape, but there remains a substantial portion of the electorate that is skeptical [5].

美国党真能挑战美国两党制吗？分析认为， 想要创建一个能挑战美国"两党制"的第三党并不容易， 可能需要数年时间来解决法律和经济层面的困难。 有资深选举律师表示， 美国各州对想要参选的新政党的参选资格认定并不相同。 以加州为 例，若一个新政党想出现在该州的选票上，就必须吸纳并维持该州至少0.33%的选民成为该党 成员，或收集110万名选民的签名。而想要获得国家层面的认可，新政党还需要获得联邦选举 委员会的认可，这几乎肯定会遭到民主党和共和党的强烈反对。除了时间和法律问题，竞选资 金的筹备也是一大难题。美国前联邦选举委员会主席李·古德曼表示， 马斯克可能需要数千名 捐款人共同来资助他的政党。 事实上，除了民主党和共和党这两大党，美国也有包括绿党、自由党在内的政党，但后两者根 本无法撼动两大党的地位。 （本文来源： 央视网 ） ...

新华社北京7月6日电 当地时间5日，美国亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克与特朗普政府围绕日前生效的"大而美"税收与支出法案的激烈矛盾再度升级，马 斯克宣布成立一个独立于共和、民主两党的新政党——"美国党"，并声称该党将代表美国社会"80%的中间选民"，争取通过选举在国会中占得一 席之地。 马斯克：把美国从两党制中"解放出来" "今天，'美国党'的成立还给你们自由。"马斯克5日在其拥有的社交媒体平台X上写道，美国正"因浪费和贪污而破产"。 马斯克4日在美国"独立日"当天发起网络意见调查，问网民是否应该成立"美国党"，以把美国民众从民主党、共和党轮流上台的两党体制中"解放 出来"。截至5日他再次发帖时，共有124.9万多网民参与投票，支持者占65.4%，反对者为34.6%。 "支持和反对比例为2:1，表明你们想要一个新政党，你们也会有个新政党。"马斯克在5日帖文中写道。 他还表示，为了对付美国共和、民主两大党，需要"采用伊巴密浓达在留克特拉战役中粉碎斯巴达不可战胜神话的方法：在战场的精确位置高度 集中兵力"。 留克特拉战役是古代欧洲以少胜多的经典一役，对古希腊的历史产生深远影响。伊巴密浓达率领的底比斯军队战胜了不可一世的斯巴 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a third political party in the U.S. to challenge the existing two-party system is a complex process that may take years to navigate legal and financial challenges [1] Legal Challenges - Different states have varying requirements for new political parties to qualify for elections; for instance, in California, a new party must secure at least 0.33% of voters as members or collect 1.1 million signatures [1] - National recognition requires approval from the Federal Election Commission, which is likely to face strong opposition from the Democratic and Republican parties [1] Financial Challenges - Fundraising poses a significant hurdle, with the former chairman of the Federal Election Commission, Lee Goodman, indicating that thousands of donors may be needed to support the new party [1] Existing Political Landscape - Besides the Democratic and Republican parties, there are other parties like the Green Party and Libertarian Party, but they have not been able to significantly challenge the dominance of the two major parties [1]