Core Viewpoint - China's trade surplus from January to November increased by 21% year-on-year, reaching $1.0758 trillion, which is over 50 times the surplus at the time of China's WTO accession in 2001 [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Surplus and Exports - The trade surplus is calculated by subtracting imports from exports, with the surplus exceeding $1 trillion for the first time since comparable data began in 2000 [1][3]. - Exports to ASEAN, the largest export destination, grew by 14%, while exports to the EU increased by 8%. In contrast, exports to the US decreased by 19% [5]. - The average proportion of major export goods with declining prices reached over 60% from January to November 2025, indicating a trend of "tight exports" due to domestic overcapacity [3][5]. Group 2: Impact of US-China Trade Relations - The trade surplus significantly declined during the first Trump administration's trade war in 2018 but expanded again after 2019 [3]. - The US imposed tariffs on Chinese imports starting in February, leading to reciprocal tariffs from China, resulting in a de facto embargo state [5]. - In November, US imports from China decreased by 19%, amounting to $10 billion, while the decline in October was 23% [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Following the agreement between US and Chinese leaders, actual tariff reductions were delayed until mid-November, affecting the recovery of Chinese exports [7]. - There are expectations for a potential increase in exports to the US in December, despite a 29% year-on-year decrease in November [7]. - The relationship between China and Japan remains stable despite tensions, with trade volume increasing by 6% in November [8].