本文字数：1670，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 程程 加拿大将从9月1日起取消对符合《美墨加贸易协定》（USMCA）的美国商品征收的25%的报复性 关税。 加拿大总理卡尼近日表示，上述措施是与美国对加拿大商品降低关税的对应措施。加拿大目前将专注 于帮助那些面临高额关税的行业，如钢铁、铝、汽车和木材等，并为美国政府对USMCA的正式审查 做准备。 2025.08. 25 特朗普7月31日签署一项行政命令，将部分加拿大商品的关税提高至35%，并于8月1日凌晨生效。 但是这一关税不包括《美加墨协定》覆盖的产品。自关税战爆发以来，加拿大政府已三次对美国商品 征收报复性关税，包括对价值600亿加元的美国商品征收关税，以及对美国汽车加征额外关税。 上海国际问题研究院外交政策研究所所长牛海彬此前对第一财经记者表示，加墨两国（尤其是加拿 大）若在农产品和能源领域实施关税报复，可能对美国经济产生实质性影响，但从两国当前表态来 看，加墨两国更倾向通过向特朗普政府展示在芬太尼领域管控方面的进展和努力，以换取较低的关税 税率。 6月5日，加拿大温哥华港口集装箱码头拍摄的集装箱船和货柜。（图源：新华社） 加拿大小企业难支撑 ...

此外，由于受美联储降息预期回摆的影响，隔夜HIBOR大幅抬升，这对港股形成了一定压制，由于9月 降息或已成定局，考虑到港股今年相对A股的超额已经大幅回吐，A-H市场将重回统一起跑线，企业盈 利变化将成为两地市场表现差异的驱动。 （文章来源：第一财经） 第二，保险的长期资产端将受益于资本回报的见底，其次是券商； 第三，盈利修复之后，内需相关领域也将出现机会，代表大盘蓝筹的沪深300还未能跑赢创业板指，但 是也已在近期的风格切换中开始跑赢国证2000，行情的扩散刚刚开始,A股权重股的修复刚刚开始，关 注：食品饮料，电力设备。 国金证券指出，在市场创10年新高之际，建议寻找下一个阶段基本面边际改善最大的领域提前布局。 第一，海外制造业修复下，实物资产将迎来顺风（工业金属：铜、铝、钢铁、基础化工），以及投资加 速下的资本品（工程机械、专用机械、机械零部件、重卡），中长期应该关注产业链重构带来的投资和 消费两端实物消耗提升的机会； ...

沪指本周累计涨3.49%，深证成指累计涨4.57%，创业板指累计涨5.85%。A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎 么说： ①中信证券：此轮行情并不是散户市 中信证券发文称，从各类资金情况来看，此轮行情持续到现在主要的发起者和推动者并非散户；事实上 本轮行情从起步到加速，核心线索都是围绕产业趋势和业绩；既然都是聪明的钱入场占主导地位，就不 能执迷于类比过往行情走势。随着2020~2021年发行的产品整体步入盈亏平衡区域，市场会有个新旧资 金接力的过程；未来行情的延续需要的是新的配置线索，而不是拘泥于"钱多"和流动性。配置上，建议 继续聚焦资源、创新药、游戏和军工，开始关注化工，逐步增配一些"反内卷+出海"品种，9月消费电子 板块也值得关注。 ②光大证券：市场中长期仍然有望持续上行，或以"轮动补涨"特征为主 光大证券研报指出，展望未来，市场仍然有望继续上行。目前来看，支撑股票市场上涨的逻辑并没有发 生变化，市场估值目前也较为合理，并未出现明显透支。此外，还有一些新的积极因素正在出现，如美 联储降息周期可能会开启、公募资金发行出现回暖。综合来看，市场中长期仍然有望持续上行。当前来 看，本轮行情或许会以"轮动补涨"特征为主， ...

Group 1 - The Canadian government has decided to compromise by adjusting previously imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, canceling most tariffs while temporarily retaining tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum [1] - Canada was the only developed country to directly confront the U.S. since the new trade agreement pushed by Trump, imposing a 35% tariff on U.S. goods starting August 1, 2018, significantly higher than the 15% tariffs imposed by other developed nations [1][2] - The economic pressure from the U.S. has forced Canada to reconsider its stance, as its economy is closely tied to the U.S., necessitating a balance of internal interests [2] Group 2 - Trump's long-term plan may involve integrating Canada into the U.S. political system, with a probability exceeding 60% that Canada could become a U.S. state by the end of 2028 [4] - The U.S. aims to strengthen economic ties with Mexico while also seeking to consolidate its influence over South American countries like Brazil and Argentina [4]

特朗普的关税政策实施后不久，其负面影响已经在全球范围内显现出来。虽然中国、巴西等国家也受到 了影响，但最为痛苦的却是美国的盟友们。日韩以及欧洲各国纷纷陷入了焦虑之中，甚至对美国的态度 产生了强烈的不满。 日韩欧的焦虑情绪 2025年8月1日，美国总统特朗普签署了一项行政命令，正式确定了各国的关税额度。针对欧盟、日韩等 国家，美国将对其施加15%的关税，此外还要求它们投资至少1000亿美元的资金进入美国市场。欧盟和 日本的计划很清楚——通过投资换取更低的关税，希望能够为本国企业争取更多的喘息空间。 作为日本的支柱性产业之一，汽车制造业遭遇了沉重打击。就在特朗普关税生效后的4月到6月，日方对 美汽车出口出现了连续三个月的同比下降。丰田汽车公司表示，受关税影响，其2025年整体收入将减少 1.4万亿日元，净利润大幅下降至2.66万亿日元，损失几乎占到原本利润的一半。而日产汽车则采取了紧 急自救措施，全球裁员2万，关闭7家工厂，全力压缩成本以维持盈利。预计这一局面在2025年第三季度 将更加严峻，甚至可能导致日本经济出现负增长。 然而，距离8月7日关税生效还有不到两周的时间，尽管特朗普的大框架已基本确定，但很多重要的 ...

近日，北京首钢股份有限公司发布新版《公司章程》，对公司的组织与行为、股东与股东会、董事会等 多方面做出详细规定，为公司的规范运作和长远发展提供了坚实的制度保障。 北京首钢股份经北京市人民政府批准，于1999年7月27日首次向境内社会公众发行35,000万股人民币普 通股，并在深圳证券交易所上市，目前注册资本为人民币7,754,967,370元。公司经营范围广泛，涵盖钢 铁冶炼、铜冶炼及压延加工、销售等多项业务。 股份相关规定 公司发起人为首钢集团有限公司，认购196,000万股，公司设立时发行股份总数为231,000万股。已发行 股份数为7,754,967,370股，均为普通股。公司对股份增减和回购有明确规定，可通过向不特定对象或特 定对象发行股份、派送红股等方式增加资本，减少注册资本需按规定程序办理。公司一般不得收购本公 司股份，但在减少注册资本等六种情形下除外。同时，公司对股份转让也有严格限制，如公开发行股份 前已发行的股份，上市一年内不得转让，董事、高级管理人员任职期间每年转让股份不得超过其所持股 份总数的25%等。 股东与股东会 公司依据证券登记结算机构凭证建立股东名册，股东按持股类别享有权利、承担义 ...

2025 年 08 月 22 日 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 耿驰政（联系人） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 （1）科技成长+自主可控+军工：液冷、机器人、游戏、AI 应用、军工（导弹、 无人机、卫星、深海科技），此外关注与指数共振度较高的金融科技与券商板块。 （2）受益于"PPI 边际改善预期+部分低位补涨"的顺周期品种扩散：钢铁、化 工、有色金属、建材有望受益，保险、白酒、地产或存估值修复机会。 （3）具备反内卷弹性、更"广谱"方向：本轮反内卷的范围已超越传统周期品， 光伏、锂电、工程机械、医疗、港股恒生互联网等部分制造与成长方向同样具备 中期潜力。 gengchizheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125050007 证券化率指标—判断指数牛估值空间的一种参考 本轮行情与分子端盈利表现出现一定错位。我们在 2025 年 7 月 12 日发布的报告 《剖析市场突破的核心动力》中指出，从交易行为、资金流向到制度支持，多重 因素共同构筑了市场上行的内在基础。在宏观预期相对缺位的背景下，本轮行情 与以往典型的"指数牛"存在相似特 ...

日本媒体和专家认为，美国对汽车类产品加征关税对日本出口影响巨大。为对冲美关税政策影响，日本 汽车制造商被迫降价，盈利空间被严重挤压。 美国4月起对日本进口汽车和零部件加征25%关税，对其他多数货品则课征10%关税，6月初又把钢铁进 口关税调高一倍至50%。汽车和零部件约占日本对美出口总额的1/3。丰田汽车本月稍早警告，美国关 税恐使该公司营运利润锐减1.4万亿日元。 美国关税持续冲击全球贸易，日本出口也受到沉重打击。最新数据显示，日本7月出口创下四年多来最 大跌幅。 日本财务省8月20日公布的7月贸易统计结果显示，7月出口额较去年同期下滑2.6%，跌幅大于市场原估 的2.1%，主要受汽车、汽车零件和钢铁拖累，创2021年2月以来最大跌幅。不过，出口量增加了1.2%， 显示出口商仍靠调降售价来吸收美国关税成本。因原油、煤炭和液化天然气进口均出现两位数下滑，进 口额同比减少7.5%至9.48万亿日元。7月日本贸易逆差达1175亿日元。 日本7月对美出口额同比减少10.1%，其中汽车和零部件出口额分别大减28.4%和17.4%。就出口量来 看，日本对美汽车出口只减少3.2%，可见车厂正自行吸收部分关税以支撑销售。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on Japanese exports is becoming increasingly evident, with significant declines in both exports and imports reported for July 2023 [2][4][6]. Trade Data Summary - Japan's exports in July fell by 2.6% year-on-year, marking the largest decline in over four years and exceeding economists' expectations of a 2.1% drop [4]. - Imports decreased by 7.5%, which was less than the anticipated 10.4% decline [4]. - Japan recorded a trade deficit of 117.5 billion yen (approximately 795.5 million USD), contrasting with the expected surplus of 196.2 billion yen [4]. - Key export declines included automobiles (down 11.4%), steel (down 21%), and auto parts (down 12.1%) [4]. - Notably, exports to the U.S. decreased by 10.1%, with automotive exports dropping significantly by 28.4% and auto parts by 17.4% [4][6]. Stock Market Reaction - Following the trade data release, the Japanese stock market experienced a decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1.5% [5]. - Analysts predict that the Nikkei 225 index, which has risen over 9% year-to-date, may retreat to around 42,000 points by the end of the year [5]. Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff policy has led to a continuous decline in Japanese exports to the U.S. for three consecutive months, with the decline in automotive exports particularly pronounced [6]. - The automotive industry, a core sector of the Japanese economy, is expected to face broader negative impacts due to reduced exports, affecting related industries and regional economies [6]. - Preliminary statistics indicate that Japan's GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 1.0% year-on-year in Q2 2023, but concerns remain regarding the potential negative effects of U.S. tariffs [6]. Economic Forecast - A survey of economists suggests that Japan's economy may enter negative growth in Q3 2023, with an expected GDP decline of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, translating to an annualized drop of 0.6% [7]. - Despite the negative outlook, a recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan, which includes a 15% tariff rate and a commitment for Japan to invest 550 billion USD in the U.S., was announced by President Trump [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The expansion of the US steel and aluminum tariff scope on August 15 did not change the tariff rate. The impact on aluminum prices is relatively small compared to the adjustment on May 30. The tariff is expected to cause a price correction rather than a reversal, and the correction range is not expected to be deep. In the medium - term, aluminum prices are still optimistic, and the correction is regarded as a restocking opportunity [3][16]. - The impact of the tariff expansion on demand needs to be verified by subsequent retail data. The previous tariff increase made PPI rise but had little impact on CPI, indicating that most of the tariff was absorbed by manufacturers and had less impact on demand [14]. - The US tariff policy adjustment affects the entire non - ferrous metal sector, which will be reflected in demand and then affect prices. The tariff range may be adjusted according to relevant categories, and the policy uncertainty in the second half of 2025 is decreasing [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents US Steel and Aluminum Tariff Policy Timeline - On February 10, 2025, Trump signed a document to impose a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum in the US and cancel the tax - free quotas and exemptions for some trading partners [2]. - On March 12, 2025, the 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum in the US officially took effect [2]. - On May 30, 2025, Trump announced to raise the steel and aluminum import tariff from 25% to 50%, which took effect on June 4 [2][3]. - On August 15, 2025, the Trump administration announced to expand the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, adding 407 product codes, and the new list took effect on August 18 [1][3]. Newly Added Tariff - Covered Product Areas - Automobile manufacturing: Galvanized steel sheets, aluminum alloy wheels, engine brackets and other key components [4]. - Construction engineering: Steel structure beams, aluminum alloy window and door frames, prestressed concrete steel strands [4]. - Consumer goods: Tin - plated sheets for cans, household appliance shells, kitchen cookware [5]. - Industrial equipment: Transformers, compressor valve plates, hydraulic system pipes, structural parts of mining machinery and industrial processing machinery [5]. China's Aluminum Exports to the US - Direct exports of aluminum materials: Since 2018, China's exports of unforged aluminum and aluminum materials to the US have decreased significantly. In 2024, the export volume was 25.4 tons, a 62% decrease from 2017. The proportion of exports to the US in total exports dropped to 3.8% in 2024, a 10.2 - percentage - point decrease from 2017 [5]. - Exports of aluminum products: The scale of China's aluminum product exports to the US has been generally stable, ranging from 350,000 to 600,000 tons, accounting for about 16% of total exports. The indirect export scale of aluminum is estimated to exceed 3 million tons, and exports to the US account for about 15% [7]. - Re - exports of aluminum: After the US trade war in 2017, the global aluminum trade flow was reshaped. China's aluminum exports to the US decreased, while exports to other countries and regions increased. Mexico, Hong Kong and Southeast Asian countries are common re - export destinations [9]. China's Aluminum Consumption and Export Proportion - In 2024, China's full - scale domestic aluminum consumption was 50.23 million tons, accounting for 88% of total consumption, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.3% from 2015 - 2024. Aluminum and aluminum material exports were 6.63 million tons, accounting for 12% of total consumption, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.4% from 2015 - 2024. Exports to the US accounted for about 4.6% - 6.4% of the country's total aluminum product consumption [13]. Impact of Tariff Adjustment - There is some room for enterprises to operate in tariff declaration, but the impact on demand is real. The extent of the impact depends on how the tax is distributed between manufacturers and consumers [14]. - Previous tariff increases made PPI rise but had little impact on CPI, indicating that most of the tariff was absorbed by manufacturers. The specific impact of this tariff expansion needs to be verified by subsequent retail data [14]. - From the perspective of the futures market, this tariff expansion has less impact on aluminum prices. In the medium - term, there are upward drivers for aluminum in September, such as interest rate cuts and the recovery of peak - season demand [16]. Future Focus on Tariff Policy - Future tariff - related content worthy of attention includes global tariff agreements and which categories are within the agreement scope. The US policy uncertainty index has decreased since August 2025 [18].