Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy remains robust, with expectations of only one interest rate cut within the year due to stable unemployment and resilient corporate earnings [1] Economic Policy - U.S. fiscal policy continues to be accommodative, with the passage of Trump's "beautiful big plan" expected to contribute up to 1 percentage point to economic growth in its first year, although the marginal effect will gradually decrease [1] Labor Market - The unemployment rate remains stable, and real wages continue to grow, indicating a strong labor market [1] Corporate Performance - Corporate earnings are showing resilience, contributing to the overall stability of the U.S. economy [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - Unless there is a significant shock to the labor market or renewed concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, it is anticipated that the Fed will maintain a wait-and-see approach, with a potential interest rate cut later in the year [1] Inflation and Growth Balance - Future policy direction will largely depend on the balance between inflation and growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates before September, with expectations of only two rate cuts this year, contrary to market expectations of three [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The next potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to occur in September or later [1] - The market expects the Federal Reserve to reduce rates to approximately 3.6% by the end of 2025, contingent on the balance between inflation and growth [1] Group 2: Economic Growth and Market Performance - Economic growth may continue to weaken, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts to support growth, although short-term price increases complicate this decision [1] - Stock market performance is expected to remain volatile, favoring cheaper markets in the U.S., international stocks, and emerging markets [1]